Have We Hit The Top?

[cubsfan]

11 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Russia regard their involvement in Syria as a success, the fact that some mercenaries got lost there doesn’t matter, because in the end. Thr US pulled out there.

 

The point is - once Trump hit the Russians - they stopped screwing with US forces period. Done.  Putin knew he fucked with the wrong guy.

 

Now of course, Biden is Putin's dream President. THAT is what has emboldened Putin.

Feckless/worthless US Foreign Policy. President Xi can't wait to see what happens

so he can roll into Taipei.

 

Our Commander in Chief is more interested in White Rage and his DEI agenda in his Military than in deterring and protecting against bad actors.

[Ulti]

28 minutes ago, Viking said:

What are the investment implications? What is the new oil? Semi-conductors. The question is how do you play the risk of a semi-conductor mayhem/shortage? My early read is get long semiconductor companies that are not domiciled in Taiwan. At a minimum companies who do not have a majority of their production in Taiwan. Hello Intel? I am an idiot when it comes to the semiconductor industry. Any suggestions from board members of best way to get up to speed?

I've been thinking about this since China has become more aggressive with Taiwan. Though Intel is

cheap, I sold because of the massive capital expenditures they are going to do in the next few years. It should do well over a 5 year period.

I've been monitoring SOXX... Taiwan Semi is under 4 %of the portfolio. Might not get the homer you would with options but can participate  with the upside \ like the XLE.

[bearprowler6]

1 hour ago, RichardGibbons said:

 

That said, the outcome of this is completely out of my control. So, I think you're 100% right that people on this board should focus efforts on making money off it. For my part, that's through fertilizer. I still own UAN and UAN calls, and a bit of CF.

 

It's hard to imagine that one of the key grain producers in the world can be annexed without it impacting worldwide grain supplies. And higher grain justifies higher fertilizer use and prices. Plus, this conflict could potentially lead to a further reduction of natural gas shipments in Europe, boosting NG prices. This could make their fertilizer production non-economic, which would advantage North American fertilizer producers where NG is cheaper.

I agree totally.....as a result I continue to own NTR (Nutrien) and also staying long SU (Suncor).....

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, Ulti said:

I've been thinking about this since China has become more aggressive with Taiwan. Though Intel is

cheap, I sold because of the massive capital expenditures they are going to do in the next few years. It should do well over a 5 year period.

I've been monitoring SOXX... Taiwan Semi is under 4 %of the portfolio. Might not get the homer you would with options but can participate  with the upside \ like the XLE.

Well, if you really think that Taiwan will get annexed by China, TSMC is a zero and the TSMC $40 strike (lowest strike available) for like .$45 would be the play. 90 bagger potential.

[Spekulatius]

Speaking of semis, biggest stick the US could use is total tech embargo vs Russia. Russian semi tech seems to be 15-20 years behind - we are talking 100nm ballpark nodes. They wouldn’t even have a decent PC any more, if you push it through hard enough.  I think the tech part or the Russian economy could be absolutely crippled with an embargo. Now Russia could retaliate with NG export throttling it the winter in Europe is already over basically, so I think they can scrape by with LNG imports etc. Then in the medium term Europe weans off Russian gas and those export Euros are gone too.

 

I don’t think the Russian hand is as strong as many believe here. Then hit Putins Oligarch friend and freeze their funds in London, Spain, Cyprus , soccer teams etc. You can wage war without firing shots.

Edited February 13, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Dinar]

2 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Speaking of semis, biggest stick the US could use is total tech embargo vs Russia. Russian semi tech seems to be 15-20 years behind - we are talking 100nm ballpark nodes. They wouldn’t even have a decent PC any more, if you pushtet through hard enough.  I think the tech part or the Russian economy could be absolutely crippled with an embargo. Now Russia could retaliate with NG export throttling it the winter in Europe is already over basically, so I think they can scrape by with LNG imports etc. Then in the medium term Europe weans off Russian gas and those export Euros are gone too.

 

I don’t think the Russian hand is as strong as many believe here. Then hit Putins Oligarch friend and freeze their funds in London, Spain, Cyprus , soccer teams etc. You can wage war without firing shots.

I think the question is what in the best interests of Mr Putin, Mr Biden and Mr Xi?  In the case of Mr Biden, I would think that he would like a crisis somewhere that would deflect attention from high inflation at home.  In the case of Mr Putin, I do not pretend to know, but I would guess that he would like high oil and gas price, and hence keep tensions high around Ukraine, but not invade?  In the case of Mr Xi, no idea, Chinese economy is much more robust than the Russian one, yet could Mr Xi benefit by invading Taiwan and deflecting attention from the collapse in real estate, assuming there is going to be one?  Could Mr Xi decide that reuniting Taiwan with the motherland will get him eternal adoration of the Chinese people and historians?  I do not know.  I am more comfortable predicting/venturing opinions regarding Mr Biden and Mr Putin than Mr Xi.  

[meiroy]

What happens to call options if the situation escalates and Putin decides to take down American exchanges, together with some pipelines and financial institutions?

 

Asking for a friend.

 

The post WWII new world order sure was fun while it lasted.

Edited February 13, 2022 by meiroy

[Spekulatius]

As for China. I don’t know about Xi, but I think the Chinese economy is very fragile right now. Their Zero COVID-19 policy is failing, their vaccines are not working well and there seems to be a risk of a real estate meltdown.

 

I think the  telltale sign was when Xi warned the US about increasing interest rates. Why does he care about US interest rates? He care because the Chinese yuan is pegged with the USD which also means that interest rates are pegged - if the US raises, the Chinese will have to raise too.

They do have the option to abandon the peg, but that means losing face and also could cause issues with their banking system as well as inflation.

Edited February 13, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Gregmal]

13 minutes ago, meiroy said:

What happens to call options if the situation escalates and Putin decides to take down American exchanges, together with some pipelines and financial institutions?

 

Asking for a friend.

 

The post WWII new world order sure was fun while it lasted.

Most of the energy and commodity assets globally are in hands that benefit from rising prices. Look at the oligarchs. Mining and infrastructure guys. No one’s messing with that. They’ll sell to the stupid American institutions that won’t touch XOM right now because it’s a bad look for their green mandates. Cycles are awesome if you get them right.

[meiroy]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Most of the energy and commodity assets globally are in hands that benefit from rising prices. Look at the oligarchs. Mining and infrastructure guys. No one’s messing with that. They’ll sell to the stupid American institutions that won’t touch XOM right now because it’s a bad look for their green mandates. Cycles are awesome if you get them right.

 

I own CL1 calls for awhile now, obviously I'm not going to hoard the physical...

 

My point is, that yes the USA can severe Putin's income streams but he can clearly do the same.

 

If you're saying that he won't do that because of this and that? I think that at a certain point he might absolutely do it.

 

 

 

 

Edited February 13, 2022 by meiroy

[barminov]

14 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Man! Where’s @Read the Footnoteswhen you need him? All those experts on psychological analysis declaring Trump a Russian puppet….the fella they voted for seems mighty effective. Ukraine going back to Russia. Arguably where it belonged to begin with as a huge percentage of Ukrainians consider themselves Russian and support Russia. It’s basically been a self serving US/EU initiative to steal Ukraine and the bulk of that region following the Cold War. IMO this is largely much ado about nothing. But the beauty? Nat gas is gonna go through the roof and $120 oil ain’t too far off either. Been debating picking up some $200 CL calls. It’s closer than everyone thinks.

Agree with you on oil and gas, and am positioned accordingly.

 

Respectfully though, you have no idea what you're talking about with regards to Ukraine. I was born and raised there, have relatives, friends, business colleagues there, even now. When you claim that most Ukrainians are pro-Russian, can you give me a source? Mind you, a lot has changed since 2014, something current would be appropriate. 

Edited February 13, 2022 by barminov

[SharperDingaan]

11 hours ago, meiroy said:

 

I own CL1 calls for awhile now, obviously I'm not going to hoard the physical...

 

My point is, that yes the USA can severe Putin's income streams but he can clearly do the same.

 

If you're saying that he won't do that because of this and that? I think that at a certain point he might absolutely do it.

 

 

 

 

 

The trick to severing o/g infrastructure is to localize the damage. Long enough to stop the flow and cut off income, but strategic enough that replacement parts/expertise can only come from the west. Disable the collection points, blow the storage facilities, and force a hard suck on the reserves. Can't project force for too long, if you do not have the oil. 

 

Russian exports can be readily replaced by Iraqi, Iranian (NG), Qatari (NG), and US/Canada (NG, heavy oil) supply - but the timing differences have to be met from global inventory. We get higher WTI prices because of that inventory squeeze. We get higher drilling costs when the primarily western technology is put under sanctions.

 

Failing at invasion is dangerous. Freeze all Russian western assets and loan facilities, dismantle Russian drug and weapons supply, and Moscow becomes a very dangerous place. Oligarchs can be a bastard, and how often does a crime family get to clean house and move up? The smart move is not to start.

 

SD

 

 

 

[Castanza]

11 hours ago, barminov said:

Agree with you on oil and gas, and am positioned accordingly.

 

Respectfully though, you have no idea what you're talking about with regards to Ukraine. I was born and raised there, have relatives, friends, business colleagues there, even now. When you claim that most Ukrainians are pro-Russian, can you give me a source? Mind you, a lot has changed since 2014, something current would be appropriate. 

From an outsiders perspective the country seems to be very fractured regarding support for and against Russia. Just curious if you could break it down. There is definitely some support there for Russia (probably a minority). If I had to guess most pro support is in the older generations who look back with some nostalgia of a “united purpose” while ignoring the terrible conditions they endured under the Soviet’s. Didn’t Crimea have a 97% vote to join Russia back in 2014 (example of pockets of support). 

 

Situation is very complex and I wonder if sanctions will just escalate matters. Further, sanctions on Russia will also affect Ukraine. I thought the below video was the best no bullshit no bias explanation of the situation. 

 

If I had to guess at what happens? Ukraine receives a haircut in the landmass department. Russia takes pro Russian/Russian speaking eastern Ukrainian regions and establishes a border they feel more “comfortable” defending against NATO. Who knows though, this stuff is never predictable. 

[Gregmal]

12 hours ago, barminov said:

Agree with you on oil and gas, and am positioned accordingly.

 

Respectfully though, you have no idea what you're talking about with regards to Ukraine. I was born and raised there, have relatives, friends, business colleagues there, even now. When you claim that most Ukrainians are pro-Russian, can you give me a source? Mind you, a lot has changed since 2014, something current would be appropriate. 

Hung over after a long night fishing and just in general don’t want to get into too much detail as it’s probably insensitive to a degree(if not already, oops), but I do have some friends and family but probably most impactful to the 5000 mile away opinion is a bunch of investors I’ve worked with in the past decade. Lawyers and politicians from not just Ukraine but places like Estonia, Serbia, etc. Had a few in St Petersburg as well, both English lawyers who took 3x the pay plus the substantially lower tax rate to leave London. And the prevailing consensus is that it’s far from the Ann Frank/yellow star stuff often described like in the post from Viking. Eastern European culture is very different from American culture and Russia/Ukraine or even many of the other old USSR places is sensitive but more akin to politics here in the states vs life and death, freedom vs slavery. Russia isn’t going to overtake Ukraine and kill all the men, rape the women, and brainwash the children. It’s more a pride and security thing and Russia believes Ukraine was stolen and as someone else already mentioned, I doubt the US would take well to meddling with Mexico or Canada which is exactly what EU and US constantly do. It’s more complex than the tabloids and MSM on either side will tell you cuz everyone is telling sides to the story not the whole thing. 
 

Anyway, just make money from it LOL. Hoping to get around to BG and CF soon. Both look cheap and nicely setup.

Edited February 13, 2022 by Gregmal

[barminov]

2 hours ago, Castanza said:

From an outsiders perspective the country seems to be very fractured regarding support for and against Russia. Just curious if you could break it down. There is definitely some support there for Russia (probably a minority). If I had to guess most pro support is in the older generations who look back with some nostalgia of a “united purpose” while ignoring the terrible conditions they endured under the Soviet’s. Didn’t Crimea have a 97% vote to join Russia back in 2014 (example of pockets of support). 

 

Situation is very complex and I wonder if sanctions will just escalate matters. Further, sanctions on Russia will also affect Ukraine. I thought the below video was the best no bullshit no bias explanation of the situation. 

 

If I had to guess at what happens? Ukraine receives a haircut in the landmass department. Russia takes pro Russian/Russian speaking eastern Ukrainian regions and establishes a border they feel more “comfortable” defending against NATO. Who knows though, this stuff is never predictable. 

 

You're absolutely right about the type of people that support Russia...it tends to be the older crowd. Partly nostalgia, partly some sort of yearning for the "greatness" of the Soviet Union. The Pro-Russian population is in the South and East of the country...think the Ukrainian version of the "Rust Belt." The thing is, before the annexation of Crimea and the DNR/LNR, there was a sizeable % of the population that supported Russia. Now, its around 10%, at best. The regions/areas that were extremely pro-Russian are no longer part of Ukraine. 

 

Regarding the vote in Crimea, it happened after the "little green men" (Russian regulars) took over the peninsula. No sane person will argue that in an honest vote, Crimea wouldn't choose Russia, but the numbers are skewed because your vote will be different when someone is holding an AK 2 meters behind you. 20% of the Crimean population are Tatars. You can read about what the Soviet authorities did to them, but there's no way they are voting to join Russia. I think in an honest vote around 70% would vote to join Russia. 

Edited February 13, 2022 by barminov

[barminov]

2 hours ago, Castanza said:

If I had to guess at what happens? Ukraine receives a haircut in the landmass department. Russia takes pro Russian/Russian speaking eastern Ukrainian regions and establishes a border they feel more “comfortable” defending against NATO. Who knows though, this stuff is never predictable. 

Realistically, the whole NATO thing regarding Ukraine is a Red Herring. Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia are NATO countries, take a look at how close to Moscow/St. Petersburg they are relative to Ukraine. Most of Russia's population already lives very close to a NATO country.

 

What Putin/Russia fears is seeing a country that most Russians can identify with, succeed. Once Ukrainians got visa free travel to the EU, a lot of Russians said wtf? Imagine if things in Ukraine kept improving and what would happen if Russians 20 years from now saw their "little brother" doing better than they are.

[Guest]

Greg, how much cash are you holding these days?

[Gregmal]

Currently about -50% but a good chunk of that is PSTH and the like and also a bunch(~low teens %) of options/derivatives hedging the market. 

[ERICOPOLY]

22 hours ago, cubsfan said:

The point is - once Trump hit the Russians - they stopped screwing with US forces period.

 

He ordered US forces to withdraw leaving US allies undefended.  Yes, that was a strong message to Putin.

[Viking]

2 hours ago, barminov said:

Realistically, the whole NATO thing regarding Ukraine is a Red Herring. Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia are NATO countries, take a look at how close to Moscow/St. Petersburg they are relative to Ukraine. Most of Russia's population already lives very close to a NATO country.

 

What Putin/Russia fears is seeing a country that most Russians can identify with, succeed. Once Ukrainians got visa free travel to the EU, a lot of Russians said wtf? Imagine if things in Ukraine kept improving and what would happen if Russians 20 years from now saw their "little brother" doing better than they are.

 

@barminov i think your comment nails exactly what is going on...

[cubsfan]

^^ Nice revisionist history there Eric.    

 

Your even stronger message to Putin - when your hero Obama handed Syria to Putin on a silver platter.

 Instead of hitting the Syrians after inhumane civilian nerve gas attacks,  

Obama drew the famous "red line in the sand".

Then your buddy chickened out - and HANDED the Syrian security issue over to the Russians!

 

Obama, the coward, took his lesson from Chamberlin - when he appeased Hitler and gave him Czechoslovakia.

 

History repeats itself.

 

Edited February 13, 2022 by cubsfan

[Gregmal]

Eh if nothing else’s there’s just been a cold dose of reality and I told you so poured on folks. 4 years of fabricated crisis vs one year of real ones. Even COVID, it was what you made of it and certain states with certain policies thrived while other places with other policies did awful. Proof is in the pudding. 

[ERICOPOLY]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

^^ Nice revisionist history there Eric.    

 

 

Not revisionist:

 

A precipitous withdrawal of US forces from Syria would only benefit Russia, Iran, and the Assad regime,” McConnell said. 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/oct/07/trump-syria-us-troop-withdrawal-turkey

 

 

Graham told Fox News: “I hope I’m making myself clear how short-sighted and irresponsible this decision is. I like President Trump. I’ve tried to help him. This, to me, is just unnerving to its core.”

Edited February 13, 2022 by ERICOPOLY

[ERICOPOLY]

That was the Republican viewpoint.  Haha.

[cubsfan]

Nice try Eric. You certainly missed the big picture.

 

Trump there to clean up Obama's mess - paper tiger that he was. Obama couldn't bring himself to upset Assad and the Iranians. I mean, how was Barrack ever gonna please the Iranian Mullahs???, if he bombed them? 

So the empty suit President just turned it over to Russia.

 

But when Putin messed with Trump - he got clobbered and stayed in his lane.

 

Score 200 Dead Russians/Iranians - US losses = 0

 

But hey, Obama did get his historic Iran Nuclear Deal done , now didn't he?