John Hjorth Posted Friday at 04:25 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:25 PM Great [short term] by now to be a Dane [or European [EUR based], for that matter] these days, with a fairly high percentage of capital already invested in USA, North America [still posted while I'm not a currrency arbitrage guy]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UK Posted Friday at 05:04 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:04 PM 38 minutes ago, John Hjorth said: Great [short term] by now to be a Dane [or European [EUR based], for that matter] these days, with a fairly high percentage of capital already invested in USA, North America [still posted while I'm not a currrency arbitrage guy]. +1. Perhaps also could be not so short term thing:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted Friday at 06:22 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:22 PM 51 minutes ago, UK said: +1. Perhaps also could be not so short term thing:) Agreed, @UK, What is trend related, and what is volatity? Daily volatility has for me evolved to become an, average, and over time, measure of success, when one look at it, measured and denominated in personally chosen functional currency, presented to me thereby in nominal DKK on our investment banks user interface, main section, centered both vertically and horisontally on the screen, thrown at my nose, every time I log on, to stimulate me to trade. On a day like this, the figure in DKK the UI is throwing my way is a figure, that is two and half times my last montly salary ex. bonus. Why the hell was I so dumb not to start to become a saving cheapskate 20, 25, even 30 or more years ago, in stead of being a member of the concept called 'the 'Danish consumer' [read : crowd]? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junior R Posted Friday at 10:13 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:13 PM the one part that's a mystery is do we give stocks a higher multiple on forward earnings just cause of Trump...Many stocks are over priced on a multiple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted Saturday at 12:34 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:34 AM 2 hours ago, Junior R said: the one part that's a mystery is do we give stocks a higher multiple on forward earnings just cause of Trump...Many stocks are over priced on a multiple Trump is going to cause a lot more volatility. The sleepy days of the Biden admin are gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted Saturday at 02:09 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:09 AM WMT and NVDA PE are almost the same. I am not sure what’s going on here or where the bubble is: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junior R Posted Saturday at 02:41 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:41 AM 29 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: WMT and NVDA PE are almost the same. I am not sure what’s going on here or where the bubble is: If you click on 10years what does it show as AVG for WMT ...I think its around 25 to 28 last I checked...NVDA EPS would go down in the future when Hyperscale's use the own in home grown chips (which they are working on) or another vendor...Maybe 3+ Q away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junior R Posted Sunday at 01:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:37 PM Quote Stocks Are Expensive - Torsten Sløk - Apollo Chief Economist Quote When growth is strong, corporate earnings are high. When growth is weak, corporate earnings are low. This makes it difficult to find out if companies are cheap or expensive. One way to analyze if stocks are cheap or expensive is to remove the business cycle by taking the 10-year average of earnings, and doing so shows that stocks are very expensive at the moment. Specifically, the cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio at 38 is near all-time highs, significantly above its long-term average at 17, see chart below. https://www.apolloacademy.com/stocks-are-expensive/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted Sunday at 02:12 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:12 PM We are pretty close to 1999/2000 sentiment with record high equity valuations - not just tech (see WMT, FICO etc), US exceptionalism, large cap vs small/mid cap outperformance. Then on the other side, lot of other country stock markets are very cheap, Europe, Latam maybe China or even in US markets, if you get off the beaten tracks. I don’t know if we are in 1998, 1999 or 2000 but ai think we are closer to the top then the bottom in sentiment here, that’s for sure (to paraphrase Howard Marks) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junior R Posted Sunday at 02:39 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:39 PM (edited) 37 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: We are pretty close to 1999/2000 sentiment with record high equity valuations - not just tech (see WMT, FICO etc), US exceptionalism, large cap vs small/mid cap outperformance. Then on the other side, lot of other country stock markets are very cheap, Europe, Latam maybe China or even in US markets, if you get off the beaten tracks. I don’t know if we are in 1998, 1999 or 2000 but ai think we are closer to the top then the bottom in sentiment here, that’s for sure (to paraphrase Howard Marks) lol you forgot one 1929 ...China is hard to invest in until the Taiwan situation is solved...Even assets managers like APO went from really undervalued in Aug to now over valued lol in the US market health care is cheap as long as RFK doesn't do something that impacts them If NVDA continues to fall it might single other stock downturns The best thing that can happen for Trump is stocks to drop 5 to 20% before his inauguration and he can take quick win for the market going back up Edited Sunday at 02:49 PM by Junior R Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted yesterday at 07:22 AM Share Posted yesterday at 07:22 AM On 11/22/2024 at 5:25 PM, John Hjorth said: Great [short term] by now to be a Dane [or European [EUR based], for that matter] these days, with a fairly high percentage of capital already invested in USA, North America [still posted while I'm not a currrency arbitrage guy]. As a european I started to hedge my USD exposure and limit investments in the US. I doubt this currency trend will hold, over the past 30 years the USD tanked during every republican president, i doubt that this time is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red Lion Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 11 hours ago, frommi said: As a european I started to hedge my USD exposure and limit investments in the US. I doubt this currency trend will hold, over the past 30 years the USD tanked during every republican president, i doubt that this time is different. What investments do you think would do well if the USD tanks? Other than FX? Maybe PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junior R Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago we might have hit a top in the short term with Trump Tariffs just announced.,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dinar Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 hour ago, Junior R said: we might have hit a top in the short term with Trump Tariffs just announced.,,, Actually, not at all. What he said was the tariffs will stay until the countries stop the flow of drugs and migrants to our borders. Seems reasonable to me. The ball is in Mexico's court. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junior R Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Just now, Dinar said: Actually, not at all. What he said was the tariffs will stay until the countries stop the flow of drugs and migrants to our borders. Seems reasonable to me. The ball is in Mexico's court. Yup but short term this will impact market sentiment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dinar Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 51 minutes ago, Junior R said: Yup but short term this will impact market sentiment Why? It is a negotiating tactic to make Mexico and Canada stop flow of illegals & drugs. Now if only the headlines (looking at you WSJ) would reflect what Trump actually stated. (Surprisingly NYT headline was actually accurate and the Journal's was misleading.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago (edited) Mexico was going to pay for the wall, right? The tossing out of NAFTA and renegotiation was supposed to correct trade imbalances, right? China is going to pay the tariffs, right? And now we'll drop tariffs against Canada after whatever drugs flowing into the country from Canada stop, right? What drugs are even an issue from Canada? More horse sh*t straight for the mouth of a serial liar - but people continue to believe him. Edited 3 hours ago by TwoCitiesCapital Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcliu Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: What drugs are even an issue from Canada? We have a pretty big fentanyl issue in Canada. Apparently during covid the fentanyl stopped flowing from China. So the gangs decided to build labs in Canada instead. As the market saturated in Canada and drug prices started dropping, we've become a net exporter of fentanyl. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/fentanyl-canada-export-1.7030758 https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/video/9.6553939 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago (edited) 21 minutes ago, mcliu said: We have a pretty big fentanyl issue in Canada. Apparently during covid the fentanyl stopped flowing from China. So the gangs decided to build labs in Canada instead. As the market saturated in Canada and drug prices started dropping, we've become a net exporter of fentanyl. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/fentanyl-canada-export-1.7030758 https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/video/9.6553939 Most of the information I see suggests it still comes from China in the US - though those sources are from 2020 and 2021. There is an article regarding super sites in Canada from 2023, but says there is little evidence to suggest it's flowing south to the US so I don't really know either way other than to know that regulating drugs has never really been successful and I don't expect tariffs to be more successful than threats jail time, ruining your life, and OD'ing or other methods attempted in the past - so they're probably here to stay regardless of where the drugs are coming from. Edited 3 hours ago by TwoCitiesCapital Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 10 hours ago, Red Lion said: What investments do you think would do well if the USD tanks? Other than FX? Maybe PM. PM,MDLZ,PEP,LKQ,TAP. But european companies like STO:EVO, CPH:STG or IMB, BATS, DCC are very cheap so i also bet on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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