COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)

[CorpRaider]

100% agree with you about the housing and transport Greg.  Wish I had figured that out a car or two earlier.  ;D

[Xaston]

54.3% which is definitely my best year of results.  2008 was my first year in the market.

 

 

[DeepSouth]

2016: 18%

2017: 40%

2018: -12%

2019: 30%

2020: 27%

 

Notable winners

Wayfair @ $30

PSH

GBTC

ALSK - small telco M&A, caught CBB as well last year, looking at couple levered names on this theme

PNTG - well run home heath nursing spin off

CPPMF - levered Canada copper miner with improving operations, cheap at current copper prices

 

Losers:

BMYRT

 

some 2021 positions

MSFT as blue chip play

BMY low multiple with visibility on multiyear earnings growth

OPCH as leading home infusion play

CNR as levered housing play

 

 

[willie2013]

+98 % in taxable account

BYD

Wayfair

StoneCo

Fairfax India

RP buyout

401 K was BRKA all year so total return +52%

[rolling]

Unfortunately calculating my returns is harder than in previous years. Drawdowns and a broker change being the main reason. Anyway, I will post my estimate for my worst year ever (nominal returns). If I can I will try to post more trustworthy returns

 

2ndhalf 2011 and 2012:  20%

2013: 30%

2014: 50%

2015: less 5%

2016: 50%

2017: 160-170%

2018: 11% (It seems it was 6% if I exclude an year end wuote manipulation, but I will take the 11% because it is easier to do the math and the 2019 return will adust for that)

2019: 0.6% (I had to use 02/01/2020 quote due to year end portfolio movements, return would have been sligtly lower, probably around zero)

2020: likely about less 35%

 

Results are in euro, before taxes but after all other costs.

 

Notes:

- a very big drawdown after a down year will make it harder to recover to previous levels

 

- remaining portfolio is highly concentrated in just 2 very iliquid stocks. Thankfully year end news were good for both companies and one of them is already up quite a bit. I expected even better news by now, but COVID makes everything slower, so I will have to wait. I continue with good expectations for both so I don't mind iliquidity: I probably will want to hold both for years anyway.

 

- being a father at year end 2017 and again in the first half 2019 seems to have impacted returns. I don't think there is a coincidence. For future reference, I suggest everyone to index when they have small kids (especially if you have two in a row).

[villainx]

looking at the poll results, it looks like a normal distribution centered around +10%, turned 90 degrees, which makes sense, except for the outlier...massive number of +50% returns.  while I dont want to harsh anyone's mellow, I think there is a bit too much risk-taking going on...

 

I attribute my 2020 to luck.  Basically, largest position was in a good tech fruit stock.  And NOT messing around too much when things went good/bad. 

 

I also found this board very helpful with idea generations. 

[flesh]

52% Personal, 68% retirement IRA's, retirement was more invested throughout. Short version, traded march-june mainly, no margin. Next, went all in brk, holding just a couple others as well, at 178 10% of which was OOM Calls which were subsequently sold for a quick 55%. Basically did nothing after brk, told my partner to let me know if the brk price went up or down 20% and forgot about stocks.

 

Big winners,

 

HCA at 65

ADS at 22

TSE at 20

Kbh at 12

kbe at 27

oln at 11

kkr at 18

[rkbabang]

My stock holdings for 2020:  60.21%

 

  Holdings that did well (in no particular order):  AYRWF, FSLY, AAPL, AMZN, SHOP, TTD, SE, SWAV, TRUP, TRRSF, APPN, AAXN, UI, SDGR, WFCF

 

Crypto holdings in 2020:  329.48%  and up another 39.08% YTD in 2021.  As of today my crypto holdings are about 29% of my total stock/crypto portfolio.  BTC is now my largest holding of any type.

 

  Holdings mostly BTC, ETH, XMR, XTZ

 

 

[rkbabang]

One of the best moves Ive made in my life(I like to think Ive made a bunch!) by far, was simply buying a reasonable sized house that I could see myself raising my kids in and living in for 30 years, at the age of 25. Its only 3,000 sq ft so every now and again I ponder what it would be like to have a gargantuan waterfront home or something like that...but at the end of the day, having a manageable housing cost is a tremendous advantage. Same with cars. Ive had nice cars but after a month its just another thing that gets you from A to B. After 6 months you dont care about it and $100+ oil changes and $200 a piece tires drive you insane, the same as your homes property tax bill-which never declines and always seems to outstrip inflation. The lower your recurring/fixed home+auto costs the more freedom you will have in life, or so Ive found.

 

I agree with you, I down sized from 4000+ sqft to 3000 sq ft 5 years ago and I always drive my cars 10 years or more.  I just bought a Lexus GX this year as well as a Forester, but I won't buy another car for a decade or more.  There will be no $600/mo car payments.  I did have a chuckle at your comment about the "only 3000 sq ft" house though.  I grew up in a house that was about 700 sq ft with one bathroom smaller than one of my closets in my house now.  Even though I've lived in larger, I still think of my 3000 sq ft house with 4 bd, 3.5 baths and 3 car garage as massive and unnecessarily extravagant.

[fareastwarriors]

~up 68%.

pure luck.

 

Mostly TSLA...Trimmed multiple times last year but still became the largest position. Now I'm just sitting on it even though it's ridiculously priced.

 

Made an offer on a house last week. If I had won, I would've trimmed more TSLA to pay for down payment, but I didn't win the offer.

 

[NewbieD]

I was up 138% in SEK. A little more in USD. End march I was down -25% or so.

 

Best year I had since I started tracking in 2012. Now up ca 2500% since 2012-01. Traded quite actively since Covid. Had some big winners related to online gambling in the US in Kindred, Net Ent, Evolution Gaming, Kambi. Also made a big purchase in a Real Estate stock that tanked when the CEO was investigated for insider trading which I judged to be immaterial to values that worked out (SBB B in Stockholm).

 

Condolences to John and anyone else who've had tough years in the health & family departments. My old man with cancer tackled covid well and found a good treatment which is a relief since we fairly recently lost my mom to another cancer way too young.

[lnofeisone]

I clocked in around 11% for the year and I'm up that much in the first 10 days. Got really pounded by my energy concentration and WFC (which made a strong late comeback and is up remarkably in January). Got bailed out by AVLR, ZM, TSLA, and ETH.

[compoundvalue]

~ -5% (a bit hard to track as across a few accounts with inflows and outflows). Sold a few risky things in March and April that have tripled or quadrupled since and concentrated around 5-6 names that did well since but not as well (most significantly WFC). Should have probably sat on my hands in March and April

[Castanza]

33% (Switched Brokers so + or - a 1%)

 

Sold a handful of positions way too early (UPS), but also had some great luck with options this past year.

 

RTX, GOOG (options), PNC, TPL, and a few others were my top plays. I built up my portfolio with a lot of value (imo) so I'm hoping to see some benefit in the coming years.

[Dynamic]

I answered with my -6.03% native currency GBP return (-3.42% in USD) underperforming SP500 Total Return index by -21.82% in 2020.

 

My downside estimate (which long-term tracks IV rather than price - hence labelling it USD_IV below) shows a +32.39% increase in USD at year end in USD. 2019's value was depressed thanks to a merger arb still in play in 2019 with high exposure and substantial low-likelihood downside if held to the merger date. I've rated 2020 YE downside as very low.

The geometric averages over 5 years show my total compound return is in the ballpark of my compound change in IV/downside - about 14% less downside now than at 2015 YE.

 

YEAR GBPret USDret SP500TR Outperf GBP_IV USD_IV
2020 -6.03% -3.42%  18.40% -21.82% 27.67% 32.39%
2019 13.59% 18.02%  31.49% -13.46%  1.81%  8.36%
2018 32.95% 25.30%  -4.38%  29.69% 43.74% 40.88%
2017 14.14% 24.83%  21.83%   2.99% -2.19% 12.72%
2016 54.19% 24.16%  11.96%  12.20% 48.90% 19.09%
================================================
5yAv 19.58% 17.23%  15.21%   2.02% 22.74% 20.39%
================================================