Leaving New York City

[Gregmal]

The biggest appeal is to the 18-35 crowd. It’s a social and lifestyle thing. Hedonism. Once you are past that, it’s a tough sell and a rough place to attempt to raise a family. Schools suck and aren’t safe. Due to density and public transportation you’re almost always having to deal with undesirable people. You probably don’t have outside property for the kids to play…public parks? At your own peril. I don’t know how people do it and have never cared to find out.
 

I also think a lot of the downfall of cities has somewhat been slowed by the overall decline in the traditional family structure and the falling birth rates amongst younger people. Folks used to get married and have a couple kids by 30. Now you have these mid 30 something’s single and still living like they are in their early 20s. Which is a big benefit to the city. 

[RedLion]

On 4/18/2023 at 10:39 AM, rkbabang said:

 

 

Well, yeah, violent crime has been decreasing steadily for 30+ years, it can go up quite a bit and still be lower than it was in the early 90s.

 

Thanks to the cell phone. I believe this is mostly attributable to the end of the gang controlled street corner drug sales markets in every major city. Street corners were disrupted by burner phones in a big way. Or just everyday personal cell phones. 

[changegonnacome]

47 minutes ago, RedLion said:

Thanks to the cell phone. I believe this is mostly attributable to the end of the gang controlled street corner drug sales markets in every major city. Street corners were disrupted by burner phones in a big way. Or just everyday personal cell phones. 

 

Never heard that theory before - but your right........drug dealing used to be a physical distribution game.......and street corners were fulfillment & logistics hubs......'owning' the right hub in certain neighbourhood was important to gain access & control the customer channel, so important you'd engage in extreme violence & murder to do so.....god bless Boost Mobile & MetroPCS for keeping our streets safe!

Edited May 30, 2023 by changegonnacome

[RedLion]

15 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Never heard that theory before - but your right........drug dealing used to be a physical distribution game.......and street corners were fulfillment & logistics hubs......'owning' the right hub in certain neighbourhood was important to gain access & control the customer channel, so important you'd engage in extreme violence & murder to do so.....god bless Boost Mobile & MetroPCS for keeping our streets safe!

I can’t remember if I heard this somewhere or came up with it, sounds too smart for one of my originals though. 

[changegonnacome]

7 minutes ago, RedLion said:

I can’t remember if I heard this somewhere or came up with it, sounds too smart for one of my originals though. 

 

Talent borrows, genius steals  I say you came up with it......and if anyone ever asks me about it.......I came up with it! 

[Morgan]

The Wire had a season where they switched from pay phones to burner phones. Really excellent show. Still had violence the entire time though, but it is a TV show on HBO so...

[Gregmal]

A nice, family friendly day at the park

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/york-city-rampage-captured-camera-171203964.html

 

 

[rkbabang]

"She's wilding bro"

LOL

[Castanza]

4 hours ago, Gregmal said:

A nice, family friendly day at the park

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/york-city-rampage-captured-camera-171203964.html

 

 

 

Send in the social workers! 

Edited June 6, 2023 by Castanza

[Gregmal]

1 hour ago, Castanza said:

 

Send in the social workers! 

Yea it’s amazing how some of these cities try to solve problems with solutions that just make things worse. And it’s not like a person with a 50 IQ or better couldn’t have told them that in the first place. Then they wonder why they’re in the situation they are.
 

My favorite was only allowing criminals to open pot shops! Or grandstanding about the border and being open to immigrants and now whining when it’s now time to walk the talk. 

[fareastwarriors]

Manhattan apartments are leasing in a flash ahead of summer frenzy

[fareastwarriors]

good to be young...

 

 

NYC’s Rent Surge Defied by New Grads Pursuing a TikTok Lifestyle

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/nycs-rent-surge-defied-by-new-grads-pursuing-a-tiktok-lifestyle/ar-AA1cx7Oe?li=BBnb7Kz

Edited June 14, 2023 by fareastwarriors

[rkbabang]

On 6/6/2023 at 4:30 PM, Gregmal said:

Yea it’s amazing how some of these cities try to solve problems with solutions that just make things worse. And it’s not like a person with a 50 IQ or better couldn’t have told them that in the first place. Then they wonder why they’re in the situation they are.
 

My favorite was only allowing criminals to open pot shops! Or grandstanding about the border and being open to immigrants and now whining when it’s now time to walk the talk. 

The lunatics really are in charge of the asylum.

 

https://nypost.com/2023/06/25/nyc-rules-crack-down-on-coal-wood-fired-pizzerias-must-cut-carbon-emissions-up-to-75/amp/

 

These people always sound exactly like a villain in an Ayn Rand novel.

 

“This common-sense rule, developed with restaurant and environmental justice groups, requires a professional review of whether installing emission controls is feasible.”

Edited June 26, 2023 by rkbabang

[Gregmal]

3 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

The lunatics really are in charge of the asylum.

 

https://nypost.com/2023/06/25/nyc-rules-crack-down-on-coal-wood-fired-pizzerias-must-cut-carbon-emissions-up-to-75/amp/

Tell me about it. I’m still waiting for the feel good scientific study about how much world we ve saved as a state since banning plastic bags and straws in NJ. I get 3 text messages from the health dept a month about staying updated on COVID boosters, but the fake scientists can not seem to manufacture any data categorizing why we aren’t allowed to use plastic bags at the grocery store. 

[dealraker]

So you northern guys with some serious grievances...just come on down my way.  Big Foot festivals (Marion, NC) are quite the fun, some  - and maybe most - do actually believe in Big Foot-ers and whatnot.  But then you also, if you make the mistake of going to the grocery store on a Saturday or Sunday may subject to swinging.  

 

No, not the in-the-sheets swinging, but more like in-the-streets.   Huge groups of people organizing and creating their own fun events right in the middle of even upscale shopping areas, often roads and parking lots.  Remember we are the bunch who have decided this stuff, while it destroys our traditions and such, is better than the other stuff.

 

Anyway you won't be going in the grocery store on those days until the law comes to shut it down.  But when the law is actually a support group - not shutdown supporters?  Well, the complexity of the fun gets even more exciting.  

 

 

 

[Gregmal]

37 minutes ago, dealraker said:

So you northern guys with some serious grievances...just come on down my way.  Big Foot festivals (Marion, NC) are quite the fun, some  - and maybe most - do actually believe in Big Foot-ers and whatnot.  But then you also, if you make the mistake of going to the grocery store on a Saturday or Sunday may subject to swinging.  

 

No, not the in-the-sheets swinging, but more like in-the-streets.   Huge groups of people organizing and creating their own fun events right in the middle of even upscale shopping areas, often roads and parking lots.  Remember we are the bunch who have decided this stuff, while it destroys our traditions and such, is better than the other stuff.

 

Anyway you won't be going in the grocery store on those days until the law comes to shut it down.  But when the law is actually a support group - not shutdown supporters?  Well, the complexity of the fun gets even more exciting.  

 

 

 

Theres different problems everywhere. Some are better than others. 

 

We were in Seaside a few months ago and the family of the kids our kids were playing with were hardcore Jehovahs Witness nuts. Its was annoying, but better than dealing with garbage everywhere, druggies all over the street, and knowing that every block you walk on, likely puts you within a couple hundred feet of a violent criminal. 

[Gregmal]

This is the death spiral.

 

https://nypost.com/2023/06/30/new-york-tax-revenue-falls-nearly-20-while-florida-texas-gain/

 

Who they gonna tax next? Normal people and families ain’t hanging around and putting up with all this….restaurants and 20 something year old lifestyles be damned. 

[rkbabang]

16 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

This is the death spiral.

 

https://nypost.com/2023/06/30/new-york-tax-revenue-falls-nearly-20-while-florida-texas-gain/

 

Who they gonna tax next? Normal people and families ain’t hanging around and putting up with all this….restaurants and 20 something year old lifestyles be damned. 

 

You mean the restaurants that aren't going to be able to offer wood-fired pizza anymore to save the planet?

[Gregmal]

LOL yea. Its amazing how resilient the "NEW YORK RULZ BRUH" crowd remains in defending all this. But the city is a shell of its former self and the numbers dont lie. Its just incredible that they continue to support politicians that are actively trying to make things WORSE!

 

You know, how bout fixing your broken and gross public transportation system instead of banning gas stoves and pizza ovens...nah. That would involve "enriching" the evil owners of those properties....so........lets just free some more criminals..... 

[brobro777]

I remember how terrible NYC was in the late 1980s. It was amazing to see the City improve so much during the 1990s and into the Bloomberg years (know people who made life changing money by investing in Manhattan real estate in the 1990s). 

 

It's crazy how they're giving so much of it back, just nuts

 

 

[dwy000]

7 hours ago, Gregmal said:

This is the death spiral.

 

https://nypost.com/2023/06/30/new-york-tax-revenue-falls-nearly-20-while-florida-texas-gain/

 

Who they gonna tax next? Normal people and families ain’t hanging around and putting up with all this….restaurants and 20 something year old lifestyles be damned. 

The reference is to NY State, not city.  New York and California rely heavily upon capital gains tax and wall street income.  It makes their revenues extremely volatile.  With markets down last year they'll take hits to revenue this year.

 

click on table 1 for revenues for the past 30 years. Fiscal year tax collections: 2021-2022 (ny.gov)  Revenues in 2022 (based upon gains in 2021) were up 47% while the previous year was flat. 

 

Edited July 1, 2023 by dwy000

[dwy000]

7 hours ago, Gregmal said:

LOL yea. Its amazing how resilient the "NEW YORK RULZ BRUH" crowd remains in defending all this. But the city is a shell of its former self and the numbers dont lie. Its just incredible that they continue to support politicians that are actively trying to make things WORSE!

 

You know, how bout fixing your broken and gross public transportation system instead of banning gas stoves and pizza ovens...nah. That would involve "enriching" the evil owners of those properties....so........lets just free some more criminals..... 

NYC population has increased for 3 consecutive years.  Rents are ridiculously through the roof.  Hotel rates are through the roof.  

 

It may not be your cup of tea but people under 50 are drawn to it like a magnet.  The crowds and action and excitement that older people hate are exactly what draws the next generation crowd every year. 

Edited July 1, 2023 by dwy000

[Gregmal]

I’m born and raised from the area. I’ve lived in the city. Leased an office in the city. Lived and leased office space in the suburbs of NYC as well. And spent plenty of time in other parts of the country. 
 

Its funny when I get accused of being biased by die hard “I love NY” folks who know nothing but the city. Bottom line is that it’s a shell of its former self and as a market participant, speculator, and observer, the trends are undoubtedly negative and growing. Check AIV vs CLPR charts. These high tax, pro crime, pro whatever you wanna call it states and cities have real problems brewing. That doesn’t get negated or fixed because rents are high on an island which is apparently what a lot of people point to as evidence. 
 

Although I don’t disagree there’s few better places if you are a 20 something year old high earner who doesn’t care about paying taxes, or even a hedonistic 30 something year old who refuses to grow up, but for everyone else, the luster is waning.

Edited July 1, 2023 by Gregmal

[LC]

My take is that NYC goes thru ebbs and flows. Like everywhere else. What is NYC going to look like in 2040? My guess it will be more desirable than the sunbelt. I may be wrong but that's where I'd put my chips.

[Gregmal]

3 minutes ago, LC said:

My take is that NYC goes thru ebbs and flows. Like everywhere else. What is NYC going to look like in 2040? My guess it will be more desirable than the sunbelt. I may be wrong but that's where I'd put my chips.

For who though? My understanding is that the migration and demographic shift is not occurring in the 20-30 or 30-40 never grow uppers, but everywhere else. Who either wants to, or properly can afford to raise a family there? Sending your kid to even “decent school in NYC requires private education and that’s $50k a year. Who’s retiring there?
 

The strength is obviously the young folks. But WFH challenges that. And outside of that? There’s not much other than trophy homes for the top 1% and then shitboxes for 25 year olds looking to fuck.