The Next FANGs

[rkbabang]

11 hours ago, randomep said:

 

If Munger is alive 10-15 yrs from now what do you think he will say? Will he admit he was a moron?

That would be surely something if he's still around 15 years from now.  I hope to see it.  There is no shame in not catching the next thing early.  Berkshire didn't invest in Amazon in 2002, but they did very well getting into Apple late in the game.

There will always be opportunities.

[no_free_lunch]

7 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

That would be surely something if he's still around 15 years from now.  I hope to see it.  There is no shame in not catching the next thing early.  Berkshire didn't invest in Amazon in 2002, but they did very well getting into Apple late in the game.

There will always be opportunities.

Agree completely with this.  I don't want to take any credit or sound braggy but apple, Amazon, google I had people with no investing knowledge telling me they were great companies.  I invested in all a decade or more ago.  I'm not bragging because I will tell you I sold all after 50-100% profits and missed the huge wave.  It really was not that difficultvto identify them , trickier to hold on.

 

A couple companies I feel could be big going forward are Atlassian and Roblox.  I don't know about FAANG level but I think they do well operationally.   They are insanely priced so it will take years for the company to catch up to the stock. 

[Dave86ch]

21 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

A company is a network of people essentially.

 

True, but what I mean is something more social.

 

A trustless decentralized network of people around the world, coordinate by smart contracts and incentivized by tokens, fungible and non fungible.

[james22]

HP!

[Spekulatius]

On 4/5/2022 at 1:46 PM, Dave86ch said:

 

True, but what I mean is something more social.

 

A trustless decentralized network of people around the world, coordinate by smart contracts and incentivized by tokens, fungible and non fungible.

If you want to do something in the real world, you still need trust. You can do all the transaction you want in the blockchain without trust, but you somehow need to make sure whatever you have done in the blockchain, gets done in the real world. The block chain tech has no way to enforce it.

 

I also fail to see how an anonymous (by design) blockchain network of individuals is social. I think this world would be dystopian with fraudsters pretty much everywhere. Image buying a house on the blockchain and when you ask for the keys the seller says, Oh you bought the NFT of a house, here are the digital keys. Sue me.

 

Edited April 7, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Dave86ch]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

If you want to do something in the real world, you still need trust. You can do all the transaction you want in the blockchain without trust, but you somehow need to make sure whatever you have done in the blockchain, gets done in the real world. The block chain tech has no way to enforce it.

 

I also fail to see how an anonymous (by design) blockchain network of individuals is social. I think this world would be dystopian with fraudsters pretty much everywhere. Image buying a house on the blockchain and when you ask for the keys the seller says, Oh you bought the NFT of a house, here are the digital keys. Sue me.

 

 

Problems are solvable.

 

I can assure you that smart guys with aligned incentives are working hard to solve those problems.

 

Some countries noticed this opportunities and are working to give house to those tech savvy, implementing new sets of rules.

 

Tech isn't a point in time but a trend.

If there are incentives and tech feasibility, problems are solvable.

 

An NFT can already open a door throught NFC, thanks to on-chain credentials.

 

To on-chain credentials is possible to tie a person identity and/or their pseudonyms. 

 

Edited April 7, 2022 by Dave86ch

[Xerxes]

With the re-pricing of treasuries and global assets, I think “the next $ trillion FANG” can now de de-rated into “the next $600 billion FANG”. 

[Gregmal]

I keep coming back to UBER and being awed by the optionality and potential. Market cap ain’t huge and valuation is ok. 

[valuehawk91]

As an infrequent user of Uber service, my experience has always been a little sub-par. I am always a bit uncomfortable/anxious getting into a random stranger's car. If it's a robo taxi, it would be more enjoyable.

Majority of the uber rides I have taken had a dirty car, and sketchy looking drivers.

[AzCactus]

I think DASH has a chance, albeit a small one of being next.  

[fareastwarriors]

12 minutes ago, valuehawk91 said:

As an infrequent user of Uber service, my experience has always been a little sub-par. I am always a bit uncomfortable/anxious getting into a random stranger's car. If it's a robo taxi, it would be more enjoyable.

Majority of the uber rides I have taken had a dirty car, and sketchy looking drivers.

 As a former driver, I'm offended. My car is always clean but I am sketchy.

Looks like my driver profile is still active. 4.98 ratings Let's go!

 

 

Edited May 26, 2022 by fareastwarriors

[valuehawk91]

lol so sorry to offend you! 4.98 stars are pretty good!

 

[aryadhana]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

I keep coming back to UBER and being awed by the optionality and potential. Market cap ain’t huge and valuation is ok. 

 

Yeah, and it may be passé to complain about this at this point but I just don't get how an operation like Uber so reliably fails to make a lot of money this far into the game.  Everything tells you that they ought to be making a lot of money: the dominant player in a market with not insignificant network effects collecting the spread in solving a non-trivial problem of coordination and matching.  And so much of the money-losing competition forcing non-economically low prices are long dead.  

 

And yet...  I would be into it if large corporate activism wasn't dead in the water, and if wasn't already priced as if it is going to start doing things well.  

 

Now I haven't studied the business in any remarkable detail and am very open to the idea that there's a wonderful case, and leadership has a great plan for the next few years.  But it irks me they don't make money.  Just like it irks me that Snapchat, which collects gobs of revenue from its mobile app used by million does not make money (or makes very little money).  

[Gregmal]

Im not sure the quality will matter in the end. Its currently a duopoly and LYFT is a dumpster fire. People need to get around, and they'll do what's easiest. Funny personal story, but maybe 2003 or so I was in the city with some friends. We had a late night yellow cab take us back to Jersey. For context, this was shortly after 9/11 and the height of Islamaphobia. So as we're driving back the driver, a big Arab dude, full turban, the whole 9, turns up the music, middle eastern stuff IDK, and then gets a phone call and starts shouting in a foreign language into the phone for a few minutes. One of the girls we were with, wasted, starts panicking and asking to be let out and screaming about how she doesnt want to die LOL. It was definitely a bizarre encounter. But the next week we took the yellow cab again. Its simple. You need a ride, what will you do? What are the alternatives. UBER put a lot of people out of business and I think that was the plan. Recently you've been starting to see the "horror" stories of the price increases. Even that Goldman dude who was killed on the subway last week, apparently just started taking subways because Uber doubled their rates. So the money should come. They've got an excellent network. Logistic possibilities that probably rival(or complement) Amazon. There is so much they can do. Whether they do it or not, IDK. But when I look at tech stocks right now, Im looking for multibaggers, not 15% on GOOG or whatever. If we're in the 2001-2004 post tech wreck period, I wanna be looking for Pricelines, not Microsofts or Ciscos. 

[james22]

PLTR

[aryadhana]

Yeah I agree that it ought to be a great business.  In New York at least, cabs are actually pretty good competition.  They're cheaper, usually more comfortable, and more convenient about 30-40 percent of the time.  And with Curb have their own app too.  In other cities this probably isn't the case to the same extent, but major cab routes (to/from airport) probably does have a fair bit of competition that puts a limit on how profitable Uber can be.  For local players, the entry and exit costs are very low.  

 

This is all by way of suggestion that the total market is probably quite a bit smaller than many people think (still leaves plenty of room for it to be a great business), and even if it's a duopoly there's enough threat of competition for a big enough chunk of its revenue that would deprive them of monopoly- or duopoly-like profits.  

 

But I agree it's a plausible multibagger.

 

It's up considerably from when I bought, but Rivian was awfully cheap for a while, with a close to zero (and plausibly below zero) enterprise value not even considering the value of whatever was wrought from all the money burned to date.  Which felt like a good option on a CEO with almost all of his net worth in the company investing $20bn judiciously enough to deliver something real.  No reason it can't be a tenth as valuable as Tesla.  

 

There are several hardware despacs with real revenue, good gross profits, and 50-100 percent growth that have a plausible shot at having a good share of a huge market, but at this point probably require a little too much tech due diligence to warrant a large position.

 

 

[Xerxes]

Arab guy with a turban ?

most likely it was a Sikh 

 

interestingly, there was a Sikh who was killed right after Sept 11, for looking like an Arab.
 

Wrong place, wrong time, wrong looks. 
 

 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Balbir_Singh_Sodhi

 

 

[Sweet]

Agree with Uber, it’s surprising in some ways that company hasn’t taken off like the other momo stocks.

 

Need to see some evidence they can make money, also need to stop diluting shareholders.

[Kupotea]

Working in Healthcare IoT I notice so many potential opportunities to collect data and add a little intelligence to everyday interactions (not just in healthcare). It's the logical next step now that we've automated a great deal of digital work and the timing is right as sensor and data costs are falling rapidly. The long run tendency will be towards dominant players by industry because you need a certain level of domain expertise but really the more data and sensors you have the better decision making and actions you can implement. There are some interesting new players but likely you see it all consolidated among the major IoT/Cloud service providers. Basically the new FANGs might look a whole lot like the old FANGs (less FB/NFLX + MSFT).

[LC]

14 hours ago, Kupotea said:

Working in Healthcare IoT I notice so many potential opportunities to collect data and add a little intelligence to everyday interactions (not just in healthcare). It's the logical next step now that we've automated a great deal of digital work and the timing is right as sensor and data costs are falling rapidly. The long run tendency will be towards dominant players by industry because you need a certain level of domain expertise but really the more data and sensors you have the better decision making and actions you can implement. There are some interesting new players but likely you see it all consolidated among the major IoT/Cloud service providers. Basically the new FANGs might look a whole lot like the old FANGs (less FB/NFLX + MSFT).

 

I'm not too familiar with healthcare but it's so full of tailwinds it's hard to ignore. Are you looking at information/data or actual monitoring devices? (Or both?)

 

On the info side, every doctor I speak to bemoans companies still using things like fax machines to transfer patient information. There is little/no standardization. So how do you improve here while staying on the right side of HIPAA? 

And on the device side I know even less. 

 

Can you recommend any places/companies to get started?

[Gregmal]

Athena Health I know was a controversial stock but really taken off within the actual hospital systems. Yup, another Einhorn valuation short.

[Spekulatius]

15 hours ago, Sweet said:

Agree with Uber, it’s surprising in some ways that company hasn’t taken off like the other momo stocks.

 

Need to see some evidence they can make money, also need to stop diluting shareholders.

I think they don't have that much pricing power, even discounting LYFT (which will be around and can't be discounted). There is competition from public transport, driving yourself, taxis etc. In any case, any windfall is mostly going to drivers, at least so far.

[Sweet]

I’d imagine they have little to no pricing power.  I need convenience or cheap when I get a cab, takes me from A to B, not looking an experience and not wanting to pay a premium.
 

It’s a low margin business that needs scale.  It has brand recognition and ‘Uber’ has almost become synonymous with taxis ordered from your phone.

 

Is that enough of a moat?  Probably.

 

Whilst it has characteristics that are FANNG like, I’m not convinced it’s many bagger like AMZN, GOOG etc, maybe just a multi-bagger.

 

Price is important, and right now I wouldn’t feel compelled enough to buy.

 

 

Edited May 27, 2022 by Sweet

[Xerxes]

If the regulatory environment takes a very sharp turn, the next $1 trillion FANG will the Amazon Web Services. 

[lnofeisone]

20 hours ago, james22 said:

PLTR

I've interacted with PLTR products and I was underwhelmed. Their game plan is to entrench themselves and it makes it extra hard to extract them but beyond that, the technical aspects were about average and in some instances behind the tech curve. Their data engineering team is top notch and that shows but I have a hard time seeing it as more than a niche player.