Real World Anecdotes

[Cigarbutt]

Today (this is becoming a routine), we went to visit my wife's parents who live in a retirement home. We are not allowed inside. Snow has melted and it's getting nicer around here. So we go on the land beside the home (5-storey building) and "meet" them on their balcony (third floor). There are more people doing that so people keep some space between groups and we stand and sit on the grass and talk. Some people are creative. My mother-in-law is going through some cognitive decline and she's come to believe that it's the normal way to meet people now.

[Gamecock-YT]

https://www.doctorofcredit.com/chase-seems-to-be-tightening-small-business-credit-card-application/

 

The churning community has been milking Chase for credit card points through opening business credit cards for 'businesses'

 

Since the coronavirus pandemic has hit, besides Chase not making any small business lending outside of the CARES Act, they've practically quit approving any business credit cards regardless of being legit or not.

[Spekulatius]

Lots of liquor stores and distilleries or even wineries are selling hard to get hand sanitizers now. It’s a great thing that  ethanol has many different uses, Some point out not to drink hand sanitizers, which doesn’t make sense anyways economically, because that stuff sells for similar prices than booze.

[KJP]

Context: Upper middle class Northeast professionals (lawyers, accountants, consultants, etc.) with youngish children (2 years old - middle school) and almost all anti-Trump (Obama or Romney fans).

 

Two weeks ago, everyone was on very strict lockdown/precaustions (letting packages sit outside in the sun for week, etc.).  Now, in conversations, text chains, etc., 1/3 are asking why we aren't loosening things up given that our hospitals have not been overwhelmed (I'm not it NY/NJ/CT), 1/3 react with horror to the suggestion and send around articles about 35 year olds dying, 1/3 remain silent.  But even the first group says they aren't going to a stadium, eating in a crowded restaurant or taking a vacation that requires a plane flight until they are convinced that they and their families are not at essentially any risk (vaccine, highly effective treatment, protective antibodies from exposure).

[SharperDingaan]

Lots of liquor stores and distilleries or even wineries are selling hard to get hand sanitizers now. It’s a great thing that  ethanol has many different uses, Some point out not to drink hand sanitizers, which doesn’t make sense anyways economically, because that stuff sells for similar prices than booze.

 

But now it's a collectors item ... and it doesn't go off!

 

SD

 

[randomep]

FWIW

 

I just got a heloc. I am in the top tier for credit.  My first withdrawal will be at 3% (the legal minimum for helocs)

 

What is interesting is that the appraised price of my home is the same as before coronavirus.

[BG2008]

This was a bit gut wrenching to read.  That little part about cleaning out the egg shells, mussels, marrow bones etc hits home quite a bit.  When we ran the restaurant, we used to hire people to come clean our exhaust hood (if you don't, the accumulated grease can catch on fire which means your whole restaurant will be on fire).  It was an all nighter and cost $200 for the job. The specialist will be 2 guys and my dad used to have to help out.  As the business got tougher and us kids started costing more money (teenager kids cost more for meals and clothing), my dad would stay up all night cleaning the hood himself.  He would cook the whole day the next day.  The restaurant business is a tough one. 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/magazine/closing-prune-restaurant-covid.html

 

 

[Jurgis]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/magazine/closing-prune-restaurant-covid.html

 

Economics is a harsh mistress. You might want to run a restaurant where your chef would like to eat and could afford it on chef's salary. You might want to run a restaurant out of love and do the best for your customers and staff. You may earn awards and a torrent of thanks and well wishes. But it's unlikely these patrons would have paid you 20-30% more so your restaurant would be rent-increase proof (if not Covid proof).

 

Unfortunately, there's little space in the economy for businesses run out of love (unless they are also run out of deep pockets filled elsewhere). One could even argue that these destroy the business aspect for others who are trying to survive and run their places - whether out of love or out of business. Still sad.

 

Short term, customers are the ones who win. Long term, the owners and the staff are people who lose. Covid only magnified this X-fold.

[Gamecock-YT]

Negotiated an 11% decrease in apartment rent for lease coming up for renewal at end of June. Wonder if this isn't going to be a deflationary event despite the fed printer go brrr.  And if so, if it's better just going for a 12 month renewal instead of 15 months (the same price per month for both)

[SharperDingaan]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/magazine/closing-prune-restaurant-covid.html

 

Economics is a harsh mistress. You might want to run a restaurant where your chef would like to eat and could afford it on chef's salary. You might want to run a restaurant out of love and do the best for your customers and staff. You may earn awards and a torrent of thanks and well wishes. But it's unlikely these patrons would have paid you 20-30% more so your restaurant would be rent-increase proof (if not Covid proof).

 

Unfortunately, there's little space in the economy for businesses run out of love (unless they are also run out of deep pockets filled elsewhere). One could even argue that these destroy the business aspect for others who are trying to survive and run their places - whether out of love or out of business. Still sad.

 

Short term, customers are the ones who win. Long term, the owners and the staff are people who lose. Covid only magnified this X-fold.

 

It's not always this way.

My partners and I are part of a community group that is helping 2 family-run community restaurants through Covid-19.

Version 2.0 of the restaurants are both re-builds from the floor boards up, and will be re-starting life with recycled/upgraded equipment, zero debt, months of donated prepaid rent, and a direct line into a culinary schools flow of new graduates. Mom and dad retired, and their kids running the place, with business advice from 2 conseiller.

 

SD

 

[Jurgis]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/magazine/closing-prune-restaurant-covid.html

 

Economics is a harsh mistress. You might want to run a restaurant where your chef would like to eat and could afford it on chef's salary. You might want to run a restaurant out of love and do the best for your customers and staff. You may earn awards and a torrent of thanks and well wishes. But it's unlikely these patrons would have paid you 20-30% more so your restaurant would be rent-increase proof (if not Covid proof).

 

Unfortunately, there's little space in the economy for businesses run out of love (unless they are also run out of deep pockets filled elsewhere). One could even argue that these destroy the business aspect for others who are trying to survive and run their places - whether out of love or out of business. Still sad.

 

Short term, customers are the ones who win. Long term, the owners and the staff are people who lose. Covid only magnified this X-fold.

 

It's not always this way.

My partners and I are part of a community group that is helping 2 family-run community restaurants through Covid-19.

Version 2.0 of the restaurants are both re-builds from the floor boards up, and will be re-starting life with recycled/upgraded equipment, zero debt, months of donated prepaid rent, and a direct line into a culinary schools flow of new graduates. Mom and dad retired, and their kids running the place, with business advice from 2 conseiller.

 

SD

 

Nice to hear.

[Spekulatius]

So here we go: Belgians urged to eat fries twice a week during lockdown.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/28/coronavirus-belgians-urged-to-eat-fries-twice-a-week-during-lockdown.html

[gfp]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/28/quest-diagnostics-rolls-out-direct-to-consumer-coronavirus-antibody-tests.html

 

So I actually signed up for this yesterday without a doctors prescription and it let me schedule the test for today at 1:45pm (at Quest).  Many people in New Orleans suspect that COVID was widespread here by the time of Mardi Gras (MG ended 2/25 this year and is several weeks long) and most of us were really sick for a while after Mardi Gras - which isn't abnormal - but it was awfully bad this year.  If I had to guess, I would say I have probably already had COVID with only mild symptoms, but I've been looking forward to taking this antibody test to see what it says.

 

[Jurgis]

So here we go: Belgians urged to eat fries twice a week during lockdown.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/28/coronavirus-belgians-urged-to-eat-fries-twice-a-week-during-lockdown.html

 

Ship them to Lithuania!

 

Or ship them to US! There was at least couple times there were no potatoes in the grocery store when we went there.

[Jurgis]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/28/quest-diagnostics-rolls-out-direct-to-consumer-coronavirus-antibody-tests.html

 

So I actually signed up for this yesterday without a doctors prescription and it let me schedule the test for today at 1:45pm (at Quest).  Many people in New Orleans suspect that COVID was widespread here by the time of Mardi Gras (MG ended 2/25 this year and is several weeks long) and most of us were really sick for a while after Mardi Gras - which isn't abnormal - but it was awfully bad this year.  If I had to guess, I would say I have probably already had COVID with only mild symptoms, but I've been looking forward to taking this antibody test to see what it says.

 

How much would you trust the test results?

 

Serious question. See the Bayesian arguments + the (atrocious?) reliability rates of antibody tests.

[gfp]

I trust the Quest Diagnostics test better than some mail-order kit but I'm not going to drastically change my behavior either way.  Its more of a curiosity thing I've been wanting to do for a while and finally was able to get one scheduled.  It's around $130 where I am going.  I've got plenty of free time LOL

 

( ** update on this - my test came back negative, indicating I have not been previously infected with covid-19 )

[StubbleJumper]

So here we go: Belgians urged to eat fries twice a week during lockdown.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/28/coronavirus-belgians-urged-to-eat-fries-twice-a-week-during-lockdown.html

 

Ship them to Lithuania!

 

Or ship them to US! There was at least couple times there were no potatoes in the grocery store when we went there.

 

 

No, in North America, there is a surplus of russet potatoes that are used for processing (frozen fries primarily), but just like you, I have had trouble finding round reds, round whites and yellow-fleshed potatoes in my grocery stores.  Those latter varieties are, in my opinion, better for home use because they tend to be less dry and chalky.  I have been buying russets (as they say, any port in a storm), but the only ways that I am using them are for mashing or baking where you supplement the potatoes with copious butter, milk or sour cream. 

 

This shut down has affected supply chains in many unexpected places...

 

 

SJ

[Jurgis]

I trust the Quest Diagnostics test better than some mail-order kit but I'm not going to drastically change my behavior either way.  Its more of a curiosity thing I've been wanting to do for a while and finally was able to get one scheduled.  It's around $130 where I am going.  I've got plenty of free time LOL

 

Makes sense.

[Guest cherzeca]

some big law firms doing VERY well now, some are cutting associate salaries, halting partner draws. all personal knowledge.  which leads me to believe that economic effects from shutdown will not be indiscriminate. firms that know what they are doing will be unimpaired. yes it is better to own shares in zoom than casinos, but I am getting the sense that the ramp back up might be at least a little V-ish

[John Hjorth]

...  firms that know what they are doing will be unimpaired. ...

 

Pure & utterly nonsence to me.

[spartansaver]

Spoke to a recruiter today (mainly places in Finance and Accounting), and he said that 80% of hiring is frozen at the moment. 

[fareastwarriors]

Spoke to a recruiter today (mainly places in Finance and Accounting), and he said that 80% of hiring is frozen at the moment.

 

 

It's a bit early right now but with higher unemployment, it will be a great time to upgrade the talent without breaking the bank.  Every team and company has dead weight.

[mjohn707]

Spoke to a recruiter today (mainly places in Finance and Accounting), and he said that 80% of hiring is frozen at the moment.

 

 

It's a bit early right now but with higher unemployment, it will be a great time to upgrade the talent without breaking the bank.  Every team and company has dead weight.

 

I’m pretty sure I’m the dead weight though.  How long do you think before they find me?

[Spekulatius]

Spoke to a recruiter today (mainly places in Finance and Accounting), and he said that 80% of hiring is frozen at the moment.

 

 

It's a bit early right now but with higher unemployment, it will be a great time to upgrade the talent without breaking the bank.  Every team and company has dead weight.

 

I’m pretty sure I’m the dead weight though.  How long do you think before they find me?

 

Once they find out, escape via a promotion and you are good for a couple more years.

[mjohn707]

Spoke to a recruiter today (mainly places in Finance and Accounting), and he said that 80% of hiring is frozen at the moment.

 

 

It's a bit early right now but with higher unemployment, it will be a great time to upgrade the talent without breaking the bank.  Every team and company has dead weight.

 

I’m pretty sure I’m the dead weight though.  How long do you think before they find me?

 

Once they find out, escape via a promotion and you are good for a couple more years.

 

Good advice, I’m due a bump anyway