rolling Posted August 19, 2020 Posted August 19, 2020 If the COVID deaths curve goes way up (meaning it is extremely widespread within the population) and then flatlines, the region probably has herd immunity. You can't remove the virus from the population when it is that extremely widespread. Too much noise in the data and people focus too much on where the theoretical threshold for herd immunity is. You know it when you see it, and that is when the deaths go away. This is B.S. If this were true, there would not be the second wave phenomenon seen in past pandemics. Very interesting counterpoint. However, influenza immunity lasts a few months typically and in past flu pandemics a lot of second waves were described. Coronavirus immunity has been longer lasting (1 year plus) example for SARS where there was no second wave. Still hard for me to believe at 5-20% of antibody titer positivities we would have herd immunity. IMHO it's partial population immunity but a major impact is from physical distancing and mask wearing. It's good enough to decrease cases so that there is a bed in the hospital if you need it, but not good enough where (near) normal social interaction could resume without inviting another outbreak. Good post I would add that if it is true that assymptomaptic develop less antibodies (or none), then we might be nearer herd immunity for deaths even if still far for a real herd immunity (which would be impossible without a properly functioning vacine). Note: this is based in a chinese antibody study mentioning less or no antibodies for mild or assymptomatic cases
Investor20 Posted August 19, 2020 Posted August 19, 2020 Personally I know two cases where a spouse did not develop infection living together with an infected person. Apparently that is pretty common. The best argument for that is many people have inherent immunity. The household secondary infection is much lower than I thought initially. Two references below: When spread occurred, children under 18 years old were the most commonly infected at 42%, followed by adult children over 18 years old at 35% and spouses or partners of the first patient at 33%, according to experts. https://www.clickondetroit.com/health/good-health/2020/08/18/what-are-odds-of-covid-19-spreading-to-someone-in-same-household-as-infected-person/ His team estimates that more than 19% of people in the same household as a COVID-19 patient, or nearly 1 in 5, can expect to develop the infection. https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200430/covid-19-household-spread-how-likely Not everyone gets the infection - even spouses in same room dont many times. Cannot think of any other reason but there is substantial immunity for many.
bearprowler6 Posted August 19, 2020 Posted August 19, 2020 Seems the My Pillow guy has found the cure...?? https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2020/08/18/mike-lindell-mypillow-ceo-coronavirus-cooper-intv-full-nr-vpx.cnn Why this clown gets any air time at all amazes me. Why anyone would listen to him, including the chief clown in the White House, is mind boggling.
KCLarkin Posted August 19, 2020 Posted August 19, 2020 Cannot think of any other reason but there is substantial immunity for many. Counterpoint: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e6.htm
Cigarbutt Posted August 19, 2020 Posted August 19, 2020 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-18/sweden-s-face-mask-debate-heats-up-amid-covid-resurgence-warning The mask question, from a policy standpoint, is not simple. The propensity to wear masks is highly cultural and contextual. Globally, one of the most significant incentives to wear mask has been related to circumstances where hospitals (and morgues) were overwhelmed (ie mask wearing habit acquired too late). Interestingly, from the data i've seen, the propensity to wear masks in Nordic countries is only marginally different despite a perception that Sweden's policy choice is significantly different in that regard. https://www.euronews.com/2020/07/14/coronavirus-how-the-wearing-of-face-masks-has-exposed-a-divided-europe Disclosure: i think mask wearing should be encouraged using various tools (clear message, even requirements) taking into consideration where the population stands and the known risk factors (proximity, promiscuity, enclosed spaces etc) as the most important cost to the measure is inconvenience.
Cigarbutt Posted August 19, 2020 Posted August 19, 2020 “Shocking” news from Lombardy too! https://www.velonews.com/news/road/il-lombardia-2020-remco-versus-the-rest/ It’s almost like if you manage the pandemic competently, you could return back to close to normal life even if you were among the hardest hit areas instead of holding out for mythical “herd immunity” or a rushed vaccine all the way in August 2020. Sorry, America! Have you considered the possibility that the reason why things are going okay in Lombardy these days is because they actually made significant progress towards herd immunity during their atrocious outbreak in the spring? Lombardy is a region where the official numbers state that there have been 97k diagnosed cases and 17k deaths recorded for a region of 10m people. With a ~17% calculated CFR, clearly the official statistics are drastically under-counting the true number of cases in that region. So, run the calculation backwards, beginning with the number of deaths to infer a plausible number of infections in the region. If you are in the camp that believes that the IFR is likely around 0.5% or 0.6%, then the 17k deaths implies about 3 million infections. A region of 10m people with ~3m infections could be quite far advanced along the path to herd immunity. So, are the current daily numbers in Lombardy indicative of good management in the present, or poor management in the past? SJ Specifically around this exchange about herd immunity, in early June, the Bergamo province reported population antibody levels at 57% which would clearly not support the notion that much lower antibody levels prevalence would be sufficient herd immunity under any circumstances. However, the numbers suggest that herd immunity had become a contributing variable going forward, at least for those who could mount one (immune response). ----- Bergamo has meaning here because it's a nice city perched on a hill that marries well the ancient with the modern and is a great example of the mixed human nature of the Piedmont region. Its geographical features also make it an ideal place for the start or the finish of cycling race. It's also relevant because this CV threat, for me, became really real when first accounts (early March when choices had to be made for survival and when army trucks were handling coffins) of what was happening in hospitals made it to my email box. This is when i decided to establish a scorecard looking at the effectiveness of various national public health organizations and leaders across the world in dealing with this phenomenon.. The Bergamo province and Northern Italy had a similar experience compared to various areas of Spain, New York and my jurisdiction with a large spread occurring before the actual implementation of measures (spontaneous, encouraged and imposed). In hindsight, whatever the causes (close to high volume international airports, large events as super-spreading catalysts, older and more fragile population etc), it looks like every day counted and it is reasonable to suggest that the outcome would have been a 100x better if measures that were actually applied had been applied about 2 weeks earlier (with obviously a much lower cost). It's been shown that the viral load is highly determinant as to whether one catches the disease or not and how sick or dead one can become. The viral load concept can be applied to the population level and is one more argument suggesting that herd immunity is a dynamic concept. Bergamo showed that a high population viral load will drive up the population herd immunity required to contribute to flattening the curve. There are several quantifiable and sophisticated ways to report on what happened in Bergamo. Here's one example (and i'm sorry to say a preventable one): Note: to understand, there is no need to speak Italian or for fancy statistical knowledge. -----
Liberty Posted August 19, 2020 Posted August 19, 2020 COVID looks rough even if you're young and apparently healthy.. Dave Portnoy:
Castanza Posted August 19, 2020 Posted August 19, 2020 COVID looks rough even if you're young and apparently healthy.. Dave Portnoy: How does that look rough? He looks like he has a fever and a headache....lucid enough to make jokes.
Jurgis Posted August 19, 2020 Posted August 19, 2020 Got a text message and filled out https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/household-pulse-survey.html today. Just FYI, it looks legit and data may help to make informed decisions.
Spekulatius Posted August 19, 2020 Posted August 19, 2020 “Shocking” news from Lombardy too! https://www.velonews.com/news/road/il-lombardia-2020-remco-versus-the-rest/ It’s almost like if you manage the pandemic competently, you could return back to close to normal life even if you were among the hardest hit areas instead of holding out for mythical “herd immunity” or a rushed vaccine all the way in August 2020. Sorry, America! Have you considered the possibility that the reason why things are going okay in Lombardy these days is because they actually made significant progress towards herd immunity during their atrocious outbreak in the spring? Lombardy is a region where the official numbers state that there have been 97k diagnosed cases and 17k deaths recorded for a region of 10m people. With a ~17% calculated CFR, clearly the official statistics are drastically under-counting the true number of cases in that region. So, run the calculation backwards, beginning with the number of deaths to infer a plausible number of infections in the region. If you are in the camp that believes that the IFR is likely around 0.5% or 0.6%, then the 17k deaths implies about 3 million infections. A region of 10m people with ~3m infections could be quite far advanced along the path to herd immunity. So, are the current daily numbers in Lombardy indicative of good management in the present, or poor management in the past? SJ Specifically around this exchange about herd immunity, in early June, the Bergamo province reported population antibody levels at 57% which would clearly not support the notion that much lower antibody levels prevalence would be sufficient herd immunity under any circumstances. However, the numbers suggest that herd immunity had become a contributing variable going forward, at least for those who could mount one (immune response). ----- Bergamo has meaning here because it's a nice city perched on a hill that marries well the ancient with the modern and is a great example of the mixed human nature of the Piedmont region. Its geographical features also make it an ideal place for the start or the finish of cycling race. It's also relevant because this CV threat, for me, became really real when first accounts (early March when choices had to be made for survival and when army trucks were handling coffins) of what was happening in hospitals made it to my email box. This is when i decided to establish a scorecard looking at the effectiveness of various national public health organizations and leaders across the world in dealing with this phenomenon.. The Bergamo province and Northern Italy had a similar experience compared to various areas of Spain, New York and my jurisdiction with a large spread occurring before the actual implementation of measures (spontaneous, encouraged and imposed). In hindsight, whatever the causes (close to high volume international airports, large events as super-spreading catalysts, older and more fragile population etc), it looks like every day counted and it is reasonable to suggest that the outcome would have been a 100x better if measures that were actually applied had been applied about 2 weeks earlier (with obviously a much lower cost). It's been shown that the viral load is highly determinant as to whether one catches the disease or not and how sick or dead one can become. The viral load concept can be applied to the population level and is one more argument suggesting that herd immunity is a dynamic concept. Bergamo showed that a high population viral load will drive up the population herd immunity required to contribute to flattening the curve. There are several quantifiable and sophisticated ways to report on what happened in Bergamo. Here's one example (and i'm sorry to say a preventable one): Note: to understand, there is no need to speak Italian or for fancy statistical knowledge. ----- Even though the value in the hotspot is 57%, Italy as a whole is far from herd immunity with only 2.5% antibodies overall. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-08-italians-covid-north.html Another tidbit, for whatever it’s worth. Italiy’sVOVID-19 fatality rate is 586/1M. When the US reaches 198k death (we are currently at 177k and increasing by almost 1k/day) we will be just as bad as Italy. That should occur around mid September at latest. I recall folks talking on Italy’s incompetence back in February. Well, it took a while but we have beaten them to it.
Spekulatius Posted August 19, 2020 Posted August 19, 2020 COVID looks rough even if you're young and apparently healthy.. Dave Portnoy: Looks like he made a bad trade. Hopefully he will be alright.
Gregmal Posted August 19, 2020 Posted August 19, 2020 “Shocking” news from Lombardy too! https://www.velonews.com/news/road/il-lombardia-2020-remco-versus-the-rest/ It’s almost like if you manage the pandemic competently, you could return back to close to normal life even if you were among the hardest hit areas instead of holding out for mythical “herd immunity” or a rushed vaccine all the way in August 2020. Sorry, America! Have you considered the possibility that the reason why things are going okay in Lombardy these days is because they actually made significant progress towards herd immunity during their atrocious outbreak in the spring? Lombardy is a region where the official numbers state that there have been 97k diagnosed cases and 17k deaths recorded for a region of 10m people. With a ~17% calculated CFR, clearly the official statistics are drastically under-counting the true number of cases in that region. So, run the calculation backwards, beginning with the number of deaths to infer a plausible number of infections in the region. If you are in the camp that believes that the IFR is likely around 0.5% or 0.6%, then the 17k deaths implies about 3 million infections. A region of 10m people with ~3m infections could be quite far advanced along the path to herd immunity. So, are the current daily numbers in Lombardy indicative of good management in the present, or poor management in the past? SJ Specifically around this exchange about herd immunity, in early June, the Bergamo province reported population antibody levels at 57% which would clearly not support the notion that much lower antibody levels prevalence would be sufficient herd immunity under any circumstances. However, the numbers suggest that herd immunity had become a contributing variable going forward, at least for those who could mount one (immune response). ----- Bergamo has meaning here because it's a nice city perched on a hill that marries well the ancient with the modern and is a great example of the mixed human nature of the Piedmont region. Its geographical features also make it an ideal place for the start or the finish of cycling race. It's also relevant because this CV threat, for me, became really real when first accounts (early March when choices had to be made for survival and when army trucks were handling coffins) of what was happening in hospitals made it to my email box. This is when i decided to establish a scorecard looking at the effectiveness of various national public health organizations and leaders across the world in dealing with this phenomenon.. The Bergamo province and Northern Italy had a similar experience compared to various areas of Spain, New York and my jurisdiction with a large spread occurring before the actual implementation of measures (spontaneous, encouraged and imposed). In hindsight, whatever the causes (close to high volume international airports, large events as super-spreading catalysts, older and more fragile population etc), it looks like every day counted and it is reasonable to suggest that the outcome would have been a 100x better if measures that were actually applied had been applied about 2 weeks earlier (with obviously a much lower cost). It's been shown that the viral load is highly determinant as to whether one catches the disease or not and how sick or dead one can become. The viral load concept can be applied to the population level and is one more argument suggesting that herd immunity is a dynamic concept. Bergamo showed that a high population viral load will drive up the population herd immunity required to contribute to flattening the curve. There are several quantifiable and sophisticated ways to report on what happened in Bergamo. Here's one example (and i'm sorry to say a preventable one): Note: to understand, there is no need to speak Italian or for fancy statistical knowledge. ----- Even though the value in the hotspot is 57%, Italy as a whole is far from herd immunity with only 2.5% antibodies overall. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-08-italians-covid-north.html Another tidbit, for whatever it’s worth. Italiy’sVOVID-19 fatality rate is 586/1M. When the US reaches 198k death (we are currently at 177k and increasing by almost 1k/day) we will be just as bad as Italy. That should occur around mid September at latest. I recall folks talking on Italy’s incompetence back in February. Well, it took a while but we have beaten them to it. What happens when NJ/NY are removed from the fatality rate? They are definitely in a league of their own.
LC Posted August 19, 2020 Posted August 19, 2020 Well that's like saying what happens when Lombardy is removed from Italy?
Spekulatius Posted August 19, 2020 Posted August 19, 2020 “Shocking” news from Lombardy too! https://www.velonews.com/news/road/il-lombardia-2020-remco-versus-the-rest/ It’s almost like if you manage the pandemic competently, you could return back to close to normal life even if you were among the hardest hit areas instead of holding out for mythical “herd immunity” or a rushed vaccine all the way in August 2020. Sorry, America! Have you considered the possibility that the reason why things are going okay in Lombardy these days is because they actually made significant progress towards herd immunity during their atrocious outbreak in the spring? Lombardy is a region where the official numbers state that there have been 97k diagnosed cases and 17k deaths recorded for a region of 10m people. With a ~17% calculated CFR, clearly the official statistics are drastically under-counting the true number of cases in that region. So, run the calculation backwards, beginning with the number of deaths to infer a plausible number of infections in the region. If you are in the camp that believes that the IFR is likely around 0.5% or 0.6%, then the 17k deaths implies about 3 million infections. A region of 10m people with ~3m infections could be quite far advanced along the path to herd immunity. So, are the current daily numbers in Lombardy indicative of good management in the present, or poor management in the past? SJ Specifically around this exchange about herd immunity, in early June, the Bergamo province reported population antibody levels at 57% which would clearly not support the notion that much lower antibody levels prevalence would be sufficient herd immunity under any circumstances. However, the numbers suggest that herd immunity had become a contributing variable going forward, at least for those who could mount one (immune response). ----- Bergamo has meaning here because it's a nice city perched on a hill that marries well the ancient with the modern and is a great example of the mixed human nature of the Piedmont region. Its geographical features also make it an ideal place for the start or the finish of cycling race. It's also relevant because this CV threat, for me, became really real when first accounts (early March when choices had to be made for survival and when army trucks were handling coffins) of what was happening in hospitals made it to my email box. This is when i decided to establish a scorecard looking at the effectiveness of various national public health organizations and leaders across the world in dealing with this phenomenon.. The Bergamo province and Northern Italy had a similar experience compared to various areas of Spain, New York and my jurisdiction with a large spread occurring before the actual implementation of measures (spontaneous, encouraged and imposed). In hindsight, whatever the causes (close to high volume international airports, large events as super-spreading catalysts, older and more fragile population etc), it looks like every day counted and it is reasonable to suggest that the outcome would have been a 100x better if measures that were actually applied had been applied about 2 weeks earlier (with obviously a much lower cost). It's been shown that the viral load is highly determinant as to whether one catches the disease or not and how sick or dead one can become. The viral load concept can be applied to the population level and is one more argument suggesting that herd immunity is a dynamic concept. Bergamo showed that a high population viral load will drive up the population herd immunity required to contribute to flattening the curve. There are several quantifiable and sophisticated ways to report on what happened in Bergamo. Here's one example (and i'm sorry to say a preventable one): Note: to understand, there is no need to speak Italian or for fancy statistical knowledge. ----- Even though the value in the hotspot is 57%, Italy as a whole is far from herd immunity with only 2.5% antibodies overall. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-08-italians-covid-north.html Another tidbit, for whatever it’s worth. Italiy’sVOVID-19 fatality rate is 586/1M. When the US reaches 198k death (we are currently at 177k and increasing by almost 1k/day) we will be just as bad as Italy. That should occur around mid September at latest. I recall folks talking on Italy’s incompetence back in February. Well, it took a while but we have beaten them to it. What happens when NJ/NY are removed from the fatality rate? They are definitely in a league of their own. Well, if we remove the Lombardy from Italy’s fatality rate, Italy looks great too. You can check out worldodometer for the US state level fatality rates. Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, Georgia, Florida and others all have fatality rates higher than Italy, so it’s not just NY either. FWIW, the highest fatality rate is with your state NJ, not NY.
Gregmal Posted August 19, 2020 Posted August 19, 2020 “Shocking” news from Lombardy too! https://www.velonews.com/news/road/il-lombardia-2020-remco-versus-the-rest/ It’s almost like if you manage the pandemic competently, you could return back to close to normal life even if you were among the hardest hit areas instead of holding out for mythical “herd immunity” or a rushed vaccine all the way in August 2020. Sorry, America! Have you considered the possibility that the reason why things are going okay in Lombardy these days is because they actually made significant progress towards herd immunity during their atrocious outbreak in the spring? Lombardy is a region where the official numbers state that there have been 97k diagnosed cases and 17k deaths recorded for a region of 10m people. With a ~17% calculated CFR, clearly the official statistics are drastically under-counting the true number of cases in that region. So, run the calculation backwards, beginning with the number of deaths to infer a plausible number of infections in the region. If you are in the camp that believes that the IFR is likely around 0.5% or 0.6%, then the 17k deaths implies about 3 million infections. A region of 10m people with ~3m infections could be quite far advanced along the path to herd immunity. So, are the current daily numbers in Lombardy indicative of good management in the present, or poor management in the past? SJ Specifically around this exchange about herd immunity, in early June, the Bergamo province reported population antibody levels at 57% which would clearly not support the notion that much lower antibody levels prevalence would be sufficient herd immunity under any circumstances. However, the numbers suggest that herd immunity had become a contributing variable going forward, at least for those who could mount one (immune response). ----- Bergamo has meaning here because it's a nice city perched on a hill that marries well the ancient with the modern and is a great example of the mixed human nature of the Piedmont region. Its geographical features also make it an ideal place for the start or the finish of cycling race. It's also relevant because this CV threat, for me, became really real when first accounts (early March when choices had to be made for survival and when army trucks were handling coffins) of what was happening in hospitals made it to my email box. This is when i decided to establish a scorecard looking at the effectiveness of various national public health organizations and leaders across the world in dealing with this phenomenon.. The Bergamo province and Northern Italy had a similar experience compared to various areas of Spain, New York and my jurisdiction with a large spread occurring before the actual implementation of measures (spontaneous, encouraged and imposed). In hindsight, whatever the causes (close to high volume international airports, large events as super-spreading catalysts, older and more fragile population etc), it looks like every day counted and it is reasonable to suggest that the outcome would have been a 100x better if measures that were actually applied had been applied about 2 weeks earlier (with obviously a much lower cost). It's been shown that the viral load is highly determinant as to whether one catches the disease or not and how sick or dead one can become. The viral load concept can be applied to the population level and is one more argument suggesting that herd immunity is a dynamic concept. Bergamo showed that a high population viral load will drive up the population herd immunity required to contribute to flattening the curve. There are several quantifiable and sophisticated ways to report on what happened in Bergamo. Here's one example (and i'm sorry to say a preventable one): Note: to understand, there is no need to speak Italian or for fancy statistical knowledge. ----- Even though the value in the hotspot is 57%, Italy as a whole is far from herd immunity with only 2.5% antibodies overall. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-08-italians-covid-north.html Another tidbit, for whatever it’s worth. Italiy’sVOVID-19 fatality rate is 586/1M. When the US reaches 198k death (we are currently at 177k and increasing by almost 1k/day) we will be just as bad as Italy. That should occur around mid September at latest. I recall folks talking on Italy’s incompetence back in February. Well, it took a while but we have beaten them to it. What happens when NJ/NY are removed from the fatality rate? They are definitely in a league of their own. Well, if we remove the Lombardy from Italy’s fatality rate, Italy looks great too. You can check out worldodometer for the US state level fatality rates. Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, Georgia, Florida and others all have fatality rates higher than Italy, so it’s not just NY either. FWIW, the highest fatality rate is with your state NJ, not NY. Of course if you add/remove areas it changes the picture. That was my point. You had folks saying "next Italy" so if we want to get technical, well, that was poorly worded if they really meant Lombardi, no? It is my belief NY/NJ numbers are skewed because testing was poorly done at the onset, but regardless, you had the usual suspects, those that now have amnesia, talking about "the next Italy"(when, as you mentioned, presumably they meant Lombardi) stating there would be more states resembling that, and others would be worse than NY/NJ, and quite frankly, they couldn't have been more wrong about that. We've been at "just wait 2 weeks" for several months now. Hospitals never got where everyone "knew" they were heading regarding capacity, thank god. And yea, Murphy in NJ is a total assclown. Same with Cuomo, boasting about how they're on the other side of the mountain and how theyre beating the virus when in reality they just got run over by a stampede(as the numbers do show), and now theyre claiming victory while still hiding as much is still restricted and/or shut down.
Investor20 Posted August 20, 2020 Posted August 20, 2020 Cannot think of any other reason but there is substantial immunity for many. Counterpoint: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e6.htm You are citing one instance. The numbers cited in the articles I posted are population averages. Below is a review of studies done on secondary attack rate (SAR) within a residence. "We found that SAR varies widely across countries with lowest reported rate as 4.6% and highest as 49.56%." https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32726452/ This has breakup within household: Secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 developed in 64 of 392 household contacts (16.3%). The secondary attack rate to children was 4% compared with 17.1% for adults. The secondary attack rate to the contacts within the households with index patients quarantined by themselves since onset of symptoms was 0% compared with 16.9% for contacts without quarantined index patients. The secondary attack rate to contacts who were spouses of index cases was 27.8% compared with 17.3% for other adult members in the households. https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa450/5821281 Many articles give about 20-30% range overall. Even with partners/spouses, its still well below 50%. Thus about 50-80% have immunity. Is there any other reason you could think of?
StubbleJumper Posted August 20, 2020 Posted August 20, 2020 “Shocking” news from Lombardy too! https://www.velonews.com/news/road/il-lombardia-2020-remco-versus-the-rest/ It’s almost like if you manage the pandemic competently, you could return back to close to normal life even if you were among the hardest hit areas instead of holding out for mythical “herd immunity” or a rushed vaccine all the way in August 2020. Sorry, America! Have you considered the possibility that the reason why things are going okay in Lombardy these days is because they actually made significant progress towards herd immunity during their atrocious outbreak in the spring? Lombardy is a region where the official numbers state that there have been 97k diagnosed cases and 17k deaths recorded for a region of 10m people. With a ~17% calculated CFR, clearly the official statistics are drastically under-counting the true number of cases in that region. So, run the calculation backwards, beginning with the number of deaths to infer a plausible number of infections in the region. If you are in the camp that believes that the IFR is likely around 0.5% or 0.6%, then the 17k deaths implies about 3 million infections. A region of 10m people with ~3m infections could be quite far advanced along the path to herd immunity. So, are the current daily numbers in Lombardy indicative of good management in the present, or poor management in the past? SJ Specifically around this exchange about herd immunity, in early June, the Bergamo province reported population antibody levels at 57% which would clearly not support the notion that much lower antibody levels prevalence would be sufficient herd immunity under any circumstances. However, the numbers suggest that herd immunity had become a contributing variable going forward, at least for those who could mount one (immune response). ----- Bergamo has meaning here because it's a nice city perched on a hill that marries well the ancient with the modern and is a great example of the mixed human nature of the Piedmont region. Its geographical features also make it an ideal place for the start or the finish of cycling race. It's also relevant because this CV threat, for me, became really real when first accounts (early March when choices had to be made for survival and when army trucks were handling coffins) of what was happening in hospitals made it to my email box. This is when i decided to establish a scorecard looking at the effectiveness of various national public health organizations and leaders across the world in dealing with this phenomenon.. The Bergamo province and Northern Italy had a similar experience compared to various areas of Spain, New York and my jurisdiction with a large spread occurring before the actual implementation of measures (spontaneous, encouraged and imposed). In hindsight, whatever the causes (close to high volume international airports, large events as super-spreading catalysts, older and more fragile population etc), it looks like every day counted and it is reasonable to suggest that the outcome would have been a 100x better if measures that were actually applied had been applied about 2 weeks earlier (with obviously a much lower cost). It's been shown that the viral load is highly determinant as to whether one catches the disease or not and how sick or dead one can become. The viral load concept can be applied to the population level and is one more argument suggesting that herd immunity is a dynamic concept. Bergamo showed that a high population viral load will drive up the population herd immunity required to contribute to flattening the curve. There are several quantifiable and sophisticated ways to report on what happened in Bergamo. Here's one example (and i'm sorry to say a preventable one): Note: to understand, there is no need to speak Italian or for fancy statistical knowledge. ----- Even though the value in the hotspot is 57%, Italy as a whole is far from herd immunity with only 2.5% antibodies overall. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-08-italians-covid-north.html Another tidbit, for whatever it’s worth. Italiy’sVOVID-19 fatality rate is 586/1M. When the US reaches 198k death (we are currently at 177k and increasing by almost 1k/day) we will be just as bad as Italy. That should occur around mid September at latest. I recall folks talking on Italy’s incompetence back in February. Well, it took a while but we have beaten them to it. That's what the serology testing might suggest. But, if you believe that the serology results are true, then you must also believe that the IFR for Italy is a shade higher than 2%. Never say never, because the elderly population was hit particularly hard in Italy. But, generally, it seems that IFR estimates are mostly coming in at about 0.6%, which would suggest a much larger portion of the population has probably already had covid (maybe about 6% of the population). Or maybe some of Italy's 36k deaths have been misclassified as covid deaths? SJ
Spekulatius Posted August 20, 2020 Posted August 20, 2020 Fun fact. The hardest hit district in NYC (Brooklyn) seems to be Corona, NY with a 51.6% positive rate. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/19/nyregion/new-york-city-antibody-test.html
KCLarkin Posted August 20, 2020 Posted August 20, 2020 Many articles give about 20-30% range overall. Even with partners/spouses, its still well below 50%. Thus about 50-80% have immunity. Is there any other reason you could think of? I can think of many reasons. And "immunity" to a novel virus would be very low on the list of possible explanations. I posted the choir study to stimulate your imagination.
Cigarbutt Posted August 20, 2020 Posted August 20, 2020 “Shocking” news from Lombardy too! https://www.velonews.com/news/road/il-lombardia-2020-remco-versus-the-rest/ It’s almost like if you manage the pandemic competently, you could return back to close to normal life even if you were among the hardest hit areas instead of holding out for mythical “herd immunity” or a rushed vaccine all the way in August 2020. Sorry, America! Have you considered the possibility that the reason why things are going okay in Lombardy these days is because they actually made significant progress towards herd immunity during their atrocious outbreak in the spring? Lombardy is a region where the official numbers state that there have been 97k diagnosed cases and 17k deaths recorded for a region of 10m people. With a ~17% calculated CFR, clearly the official statistics are drastically under-counting the true number of cases in that region. So, run the calculation backwards, beginning with the number of deaths to infer a plausible number of infections in the region. If you are in the camp that believes that the IFR is likely around 0.5% or 0.6%, then the 17k deaths implies about 3 million infections. A region of 10m people with ~3m infections could be quite far advanced along the path to herd immunity. So, are the current daily numbers in Lombardy indicative of good management in the present, or poor management in the past? SJ Specifically around this exchange about herd immunity, in early June, the Bergamo province reported population antibody levels at 57% which would clearly not support the notion that much lower antibody levels prevalence would be sufficient herd immunity under any circumstances. However, the numbers suggest that herd immunity had become a contributing variable going forward, at least for those who could mount one (immune response). ... Even though the value in the hotspot is 57%, Italy as a whole is far from herd immunity with only 2.5% antibodies overall. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-08-italians-covid-north.html Another tidbit, for whatever it’s worth. Italiy’sVOVID-19 fatality rate is 586/1M. When the US reaches 198k death (we are currently at 177k and increasing by almost 1k/day) we will be just as bad as Italy. That should occur around mid September at latest. I recall folks talking on Italy’s incompetence back in February. Well, it took a while but we have beaten them to it. That's what the serology testing might suggest. But, if you believe that the serology results are true, then you must also believe that the IFR for Italy is a shade higher than 2%. Never say never, because the elderly population was hit particularly hard in Italy. But, generally, it seems that IFR estimates are mostly coming in at about 0.6%, which would suggest a much larger portion of the population has probably already had covid (maybe about 6% of the population). Or maybe some of Italy's 36k deaths have been misclassified as covid deaths? SJ @Spekulatius You are correct in underlining the territorial disparity of antibody levels but i just wanted to suggest that the herd immunity-lockdown question is not a binary one. Taking figure 1 of the study mentioned below, one can suggest that herd immunity relatively and gradually played a larger role in the north while herd immunity's contribution remained low in the south. @StubbleJumper Some of your concerns have been discussed elsewhere and the beat way to summarize a short piece is to include it: https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)31357-X.pdf Italy was hard hit relatively early, healthcare capacity was massively overwhelmed where huge (excessive excess) mortality occurred and the virus ended up in agglomerations where a high proportion of elderly and sick people were meshed into their communities---)unusually high fatality rates which, even as "local" and "regional" numbers, had a huge impact on overall national results. A lot of work is coming out suggesting that under-reporting of covid deaths (deaths reported as a result of another cause but more likely, in fact, resulting from Covid) is significant. The under-reporting appears to be more significant in areas that have been characterized as hot spots. In these cases, many deaths occurred at home and simply bypassed hospitals, testing etc. https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-020-09335-8 Fun fact. The hardest hit district in NYC (Brooklyn) seems to be Corona, NY with a 51.6% positive rate. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/19/nyregion/new-york-city-antibody-test.html This may not be purely luck as the Queens' sector is populated by relatively poor people, recent immigrants, people living in cramped apartments who need to move around to get $, the land of the poorly documented, the informal job owners and the holders of questionable health coverage. From the WSJ (two days ago): "Among people in the U.S. who died between their mid-40s and mid-70s {my edit: skewed curve to the older} since the pandemic began, the virus is responsible for about 9% of deaths. For Latino people who died in that age range, the virus has killed nearly 25%, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of death-certificate data collected by federal authorities". For Gregmal if he reads this: If looking for a business opportunity in that area, i hear that food banks are doing great.
Investor20 Posted August 20, 2020 Posted August 20, 2020 Many articles give about 20-30% range overall. Even with partners/spouses, its still well below 50%. Thus about 50-80% have immunity. Is there any other reason you could think of? I can think of many reasons. And "immunity" to a novel virus would be very low on the list of possible explanations. I posted the choir study to stimulate your imagination. Instead of worrying about stimulating my imagination why dont you spell out your possible explanations?
KCLarkin Posted August 20, 2020 Posted August 20, 2020 Instead of worrying about stimulating my imagination why dont you spell out your possible explanations? Because I'm hoping you will improve your critical thinking and stop posting so much pseudo-science and anti-science on this thread. Why don't you come up with two alternatives other than "immunity" to explain the observed household attack rates. If you can do that, I will give you five other possible explanations for free.
muscleman Posted August 20, 2020 Posted August 20, 2020 Sweden remained open throughout this crisis. The most likely explanation is herd immunity. This is why I have the hypothesis that same has been achieved in some US states and should reopen now. And we have the media yelling failed herd immunity there just like we have folks saying herd immunity is far from being achieved here.
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