Coronavirus

[muscleman]

]

 

We live in alternative world these days. ::)

What I heard from a friend who is a San Diego ER doctor said his friend is an ER doctor in NY and that they were forced to write death cause to be COVID, for pretty much any death, even including gun shot death. The death number is inflated so the NY state can get more federal funding for this.

 

I have been told this by 2 doctors directly. One of them actually mentioned a figure, like $35,000 per patient.

 

So some death certificates are being mismarked in NY while reality is “normal”?

Total deaths are also above normal. Is the state shooting those people and marking them as COVID deaths?

If they are not shooting them, and everything is normal, then there are death certificates for people who are not actually dead?

So these “undead” people are roaming the streets of New York, in apartments, houses, nursing homes etc?

If the undead are everywhere now, is this the zombie apocalypse?

Truly an alternative world.

 

No one says COVID is normal. But you are intentionally twisting other people's words. No one ever said alive people were issued death certificates.

What I am saying is that people died from obvious other causes and the state classified all these death as COVID death, inflation the total COVID death and trying to get more federal funding.

 

But on the other hand, the media is accusing Trump for covering up the actual death count, which implies that the actual COVID death number is higher.

 

Anyway, I am tired of posting here, as people are intentionally putting their words into my month, for whatever reason. I'll just keep quiet until the end of this month and see if the COVID daily new cases is sharply lower.

 

[muscleman]

And my last post to Dalal Holdings, investing is all about making educated guesses. You can keep posting past data and making vague arguments like "Oh the damage is already done" or "I don't think anyone can do 2nd or 3rd degree thinking.". It is true that 2nd degree thinking is hard, but that's where you make the money. 1st degree thinking never works in investing.

Not sure when you started investing but I had almost the same feeling about it as you do for COVID now during the 2011 EU crisis. I later realized that I was totally wrong because the market looks forward 6-12 months ahead and you have to make an educated guess about that. I also recommend you to read George Soros' Alchemy of Finance. It was extremely hard to understand and I read it 4-5 times and all of his other books over the years to finally have some level of understanding. In the early stage of an asset bubble, you want to get in aggressively. Definitely not in the late stage of an asset bubble.

I am not going to post anymore until the end of this month. Good luck!

[samwise]

]

 

We live in alternative world these days. ::)

What I heard from a friend who is a San Diego ER doctor said his friend is an ER doctor in NY and that they were forced to write death cause to be COVID, for pretty much any death, even including gun shot death. The death number is inflated so the NY state can get more federal funding for this.

 

I have been told this by 2 doctors directly. One of them actually mentioned a figure, like $35,000 per patient.

 

So some death certificates are being mismarked in NY while reality is “normal”?

Total deaths are also above normal. Is the state shooting those people and marking them as COVID deaths?

If they are not shooting them, and everything is normal, then there are death certificates for people who are not actually dead?

So these “undead” people are roaming the streets of New York, in apartments, houses, nursing homes etc?

If the undead are everywhere now, is this the zombie apocalypse?

Truly an alternative world.

 

No one says COVID is normal. But you are intentionally twisting other people's words. No one ever said alive people were issued death certificates.

What I am saying is that people died from obvious other causes and the state classified all these death as COVID death, inflation the total COVID death and trying to get more federal funding.

 

But on the other hand, the media is accusing Trump for covering up the actual death count, which implies that the actual COVID death number is higher.

 

Anyway, I am tired of posting here, as people are intentionally putting their words into my month, for whatever reason. I'll just keep quiet until the end of this month and see if the COVID daily new cases is sharply lower.

 

Muscle, no you never said things were normal. And COVID deaths would be over stated if death certificates are fabricated. But there were way above normal deaths in NY during that period. In this train of thought (from your friends in ER) did those people actually die? I.e. was the rate of people dying normal or were there a lot of excess deaths?

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

And my last post to Dalal Holdings, investing is all about making educated guesses. You can keep posting past data and making vague arguments like "Oh the damage is already done" or "I don't think anyone can do 2nd or 3rd degree thinking.". It is true that 2nd degree thinking is hard, but that's where you make the money. 1st degree thinking never works in investing.

Not sure when you started investing but I had almost the same feeling about it as you do for COVID now during the 2011 EU crisis. I later realized that I was totally wrong because the market looks forward 6-12 months ahead and you have to make an educated guess about that. I also recommend you to read George Soros' Alchemy of Finance. It was extremely hard to understand and I read it 4-5 times and all of his other books over the years to finally have some level of understanding. In the early stage of an asset bubble, you want to get in aggressively. Definitely not in the late stage of an asset bubble.

I am not going to post anymore until the end of this month. Good luck!

 

I never said you can’t know 2nd or 3rd order effects, it’s when there’s wide uncertainty that you ought to be conservative, that is all. And yes, it’s much easier to say the economic damage had been done when GDP change and unemployment are where they are and congress/fed are intervening to the extent they are...the damage is done. And you’re the one confident about a market crash, I have no idea where the market goes. In fact, it may go much higher esp if Trump is reelected (just don’t ask about USD or real returns).

 

You may be right about your “educated guesses”, but my estimate of the probability you are right is much lower than yours. After all, you need to test your hypothesis with real world data—it’s easy to come up with a guess, but you have to test it repeatedly. You seem to have very high confidence in certain things which don’t make much sense to me...like the anecdotal reports of a friend in the ER in SD with regards to how covid deaths in NY were tabulated...this is not a robust way to learn from the world and test your hypotheses.

 

You seem to put large weight on an anecdote but almost no weight on real data—for example on excess deaths in NY which samwise is alluding to—excess deaths were much higher vs past years in NY/NJ/etc despite lockdowns, drop in auto accidents (just ask insurers), drop in people getting hit by cars due to lock downs, drop in crime during April-May, etc. So where did those excess deaths come from? Are they fabricated death certificates as samwise jokes (zombies)?

 

Those who jump to quickly believe theories on gunshots being labeled as covid deaths tells me all I need to know about the robustness of their ability to interpret real world data.

 

I’ve noted a stark change in the quality of discussion/data analysis on this thread and many objective folks have stopped posting altogether, so I will follow suit as it’s a waste of my time. Carry on with your theories about gunshots being labeled as covid deaths as apparently docs who were on front lines are less trustworthy than our POTUS to many folks which only validates how such people have obtained power throughout history...meanwhile, Fauci will continue to receive threats... Carry on!

 

Edit—like I said, I use real world data to test hypotheses—I’ll leave it to you to figure out what this data says about your hypothesis of NY docs labeling gunshots and unrelated deaths as covid deaths:

 

So do you trust your friend in the ER in SD or do you trust this chart? Good luck!

[samwise]

 

 

Muscle, no you never said things were normal. And COVID deaths would be over stated if death certificates are fabricated. But there were way above normal deaths in NY during that period. In this train of thought (from your friends in ER) did those people actually die? I.e. was the rate of people dying normal or were there a lot of excess deaths?

 

Where is the data to support your argument that there were way above normal deaths in NY during that period?

 

I can't find any data so I would be curious to see it. Since you seem to be making some strong claims, if you or someone else could bring me an updated chart of the one below, I'd really appreciate it. Of course I never said I'll be right and you are wrong. We are all here to figure this puzzle out.

 

See Dalal’s chart above.

 

Official sources are here https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

 

 

 

[muscleman]

 

 

Muscle, no you never said things were normal. And COVID deaths would be over stated if death certificates are fabricated. But there were way above normal deaths in NY during that period. In this train of thought (from your friends in ER) did those people actually die? I.e. was the rate of people dying normal or were there a lot of excess deaths?

 

Where is the data to support your argument that there were way above normal deaths in NY during that period?

 

I can't find any data so I would be curious to see it. Since you seem to be making some strong claims, if you or someone else could bring me an updated chart of the one below, I'd really appreciate it. Of course I never said I'll be right and you are wrong. We are all here to figure this puzzle out.

 

See Dalal’s chart above.

 

Official sources are here https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

 

Yeah. I did see that. I deleted my post because I was posting a stale chart. Thank you! I do see the excess death now.

[Cigarbutt]

Additional comments:

 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard

There are options for the whole US and for all states. There's even a separate graph for New York city.

Some have reported a correlated rise in gun sales during the same period and you can try to find a causation link between the two.

 

Some technical details:

-The last reported numbers, if you 'isolate' CV cases are the least reliable because states meticulously examine death certificates reports to help to translate into results closer to reality. So far, these adjustments have resulted in a higher degree of correlation between excess deaths and CV deaths.

-Reflecting on the models and methods used and assuming (very reasonable) that many folks who died would have died anyways in the following weeks and months, one would have expected a significant reversal to the mean and more, a phenomenon that hasn't occurred yet at the national level given the protracted evolution of the spread in the US.

[muscleman]

And my last post to Dalal Holdings, investing is all about making educated guesses. You can keep posting past data and making vague arguments like "Oh the damage is already done" or "I don't think anyone can do 2nd or 3rd degree thinking.". It is true that 2nd degree thinking is hard, but that's where you make the money. 1st degree thinking never works in investing.

Not sure when you started investing but I had almost the same feeling about it as you do for COVID now during the 2011 EU crisis. I later realized that I was totally wrong because the market looks forward 6-12 months ahead and you have to make an educated guess about that. I also recommend you to read George Soros' Alchemy of Finance. It was extremely hard to understand and I read it 4-5 times and all of his other books over the years to finally have some level of understanding. In the early stage of an asset bubble, you want to get in aggressively. Definitely not in the late stage of an asset bubble.

I am not going to post anymore until the end of this month. Good luck!

 

I never said you can’t know 2nd or 3rd order effects, it’s when there’s wide uncertainty that you ought to be conservative, that is all. And yes, it’s much easier to say the economic damage had been done when GDP change and unemployment are where they are and congress/fed are intervening to the extent they are...the damage is done. And you’re the one confident about a market crash, I have no idea where the market goes. In fact, it may go much higher esp if Trump is reelected (just don’t ask about USD or real returns).

 

 

Geeze...... I don't know what else to say man..... Do you actually understand what I said above? "In the early stage of an asset bubble, you want to get in aggressively." ::)

[Dalal.Holdings]

And my last post to Dalal Holdings, investing is all about making educated guesses. You can keep posting past data and making vague arguments like "Oh the damage is already done" or "I don't think anyone can do 2nd or 3rd degree thinking.". It is true that 2nd degree thinking is hard, but that's where you make the money. 1st degree thinking never works in investing.

Not sure when you started investing but I had almost the same feeling about it as you do for COVID now during the 2011 EU crisis. I later realized that I was totally wrong because the market looks forward 6-12 months ahead and you have to make an educated guess about that. I also recommend you to read George Soros' Alchemy of Finance. It was extremely hard to understand and I read it 4-5 times and all of his other books over the years to finally have some level of understanding. In the early stage of an asset bubble, you want to get in aggressively. Definitely not in the late stage of an asset bubble.

I am not going to post anymore until the end of this month. Good luck!

 

I never said you can’t know 2nd or 3rd order effects, it’s when there’s wide uncertainty that you ought to be conservative, that is all. And yes, it’s much easier to say the economic damage had been done when GDP change and unemployment are where they are and congress/fed are intervening to the extent they are...the damage is done. And you’re the one confident about a market crash, I have no idea where the market goes. In fact, it may go much higher esp if Trump is reelected (just don’t ask about USD or real returns).

 

 

Geeze...... I don't know what else to say man..... Do you actually understand what I said above? "In the early stage of an asset bubble, you want to get in aggressively." ::)

 

Like I said—if you can time short term market movements and know how long a bubble has to go before it pops with “high confidence”, you don’t need help from anyone on this forum. I admit that I myself do not know how to time bubbles or short term market movements. We’ll see you on the Forbes Billionaire list soon enough if you turn out to be in possession of this unique talent. Good luck!

[LC]

Looks like there was some abnormal excess mortality in Portugal & Spain, based on Euromomo. However these statistics lag by aprox 2 weeks. Recent reports indicate COVID severity is falling: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-portugal/portugal-reports-no-coronavirus-deaths-for-first-time-since-march-idUSKCN24Z1VB

[Gregmal]

Oh man. This continues to get better. He's taking his ball and going home because all the quality posters have left and it s a waste of his time. Then he comes back. He doesnt respond to certain types of people, but then responds every time. Its been a true pleasure watching the shape shifter and "Houdini of Accountability" in action. In April, emboldened by predictions that coronavirus cases and death figures would go up! remarks "I hope you and your kind are invested in the market"! Now? humbly he/she/they "admit that I myself do not know how to time bubbles or short term market movements". Has the market humbled this squirmy fellow? Or does the narrative just continue to shift, one by one, falling like dominos...

[Dalal.Holdings]

Oh man. This continues to get better. He's taking his ball and going home because all the quality posters have left and it s a waste of his time. Then he comes back. He doesnt respond to certain types of people, but then responds every time. Its been a true pleasure watching the shape shifter and "Houdini of Accountability" in action. In April, emboldened by predictions that coronavirus cases and death figures would go up! remarks "I hope you and your kind are invested in the market"! Now? humbly he/she/they "admit that I myself do not know how to time bubbles or short term market movements". Has the market humbled this squirmy fellow? Or does the narrative just continue to shift, one by one, falling like dominos...

 

Truly a gem this clown is! Makes me LOL every time! Always posts about me wherever I go and can’t help but follow me even when I am not having a conversation with the clown or posting about a stock he is invested in. I get to live rent free in his head (not like the real estate is in high demand anyway!).

 

As they say:

 

“Have enemies; but make sure that they think about you much, much more than you think about them.”

 

BAHAHAHAH

[rolling]

Looks like there was some abnormal excess mortality in Portugal & Spain, based on Euromomo. However these statistics lag by aprox 2 weeks. Recent reports indicate COVID severity is falling: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-portugal/portugal-reports-no-coronavirus-deaths-for-first-time-since-march-idUSKCN24Z1VB

As a Portuguese I can say there was a huge heat wave last month and even though I drank more water than ever I still was dehidrated. Old people tend to dye a lot in this circumpstances. Also the lockdown delayed other diseases management, so we will also have increased mortality for that reason. COVID is under Control except for some places in lisbon and even there it has been falling. We do have mandatory masks in indoor places...until recently there were no covid patients in our local ICU for over 2 months.

[LC]

Looks like there was some abnormal excess mortality in Portugal & Spain, based on Euromomo. However these statistics lag by aprox 2 weeks. Recent reports indicate COVID severity is falling: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-portugal/portugal-reports-no-coronavirus-deaths-for-first-time-since-march-idUSKCN24Z1VB

As a Portuguese I can say there was a huge heat wave last month and even though I drank more water than ever I still was dehidrated. Old people tend to dye a lot in this circumpstances. Also the lockdown delayed other diseases management, so we will also have increased mortality for that reason. COVID is under Control except for some places in lisbon and even there it has been falling. We do have mandatory masks in indoor places...until recently there were no covid patients in our local ICU for over 2 months.

 

Interesting, thank you for providing the context. I would imagine dehydration/weather-related items are (partially) controlled for when computing baseline weekly death rates - but as you mention if there are other medical emergencies which were delayed due to COVID, that would not be controlled for.

 

Actually, I was going to ask, "If there is a boardmember in Portugal or Spain..." but I mistakenly assumed there was not. Thank you for correcting my misconception!  ;D

[Gregmal]

Oh man. This continues to get better. He's taking his ball and going home because all the quality posters have left and it s a waste of his time. Then he comes back. He doesnt respond to certain types of people, but then responds every time. Its been a true pleasure watching the shape shifter and "Houdini of Accountability" in action. In April, emboldened by predictions that coronavirus cases and death figures would go up! remarks "I hope you and your kind are invested in the market"! Now? humbly he/she/they "admit that I myself do not know how to time bubbles or short term market movements". Has the market humbled this squirmy fellow? Or does the narrative just continue to shift, one by one, falling like dominos...

 

Truly a gem this clown is! Makes me LOL every time! Always posts about me wherever I go and can’t help but follow me even when I am not having a conversation with the clown or posting about a stock he is invested in. I get to live rent free in his head (not like the real estate is in high demand anyway!).

 

As they say:

 

“Have enemies; but make sure that they think about you much, much more than you think about them.”

 

BAHAHAHAH

 

Oh...thank god! Whew. I was worried you wouldn't respond. Or worse, feared that you had "left for good"....

[Spekulatius]

Looks like there was some abnormal excess mortality in Portugal & Spain, based on Euromomo. However these statistics lag by aprox 2 weeks. Recent reports indicate COVID severity is falling: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-portugal/portugal-reports-no-coronavirus-deaths-for-first-time-since-march-idUSKCN24Z1VB

As a Portuguese I can say there was a huge heat wave last month and even though I drank more water than ever I still was dehidrated. Old people tend to dye a lot in this circumpstances. Also the lockdown delayed other diseases management, so we will also have increased mortality for that reason. COVID is under Control except for some places in lisbon and even there it has been falling. We do have mandatory masks in indoor places...until recently there were no covid patients in our local ICU for over 2 months.

 

Interesting, thank you for providing the context. I would imagine dehydration/weather-related items are (partially) controlled for when computing baseline weekly death rates - but as you mention if there are other medical emergencies which were delayed due to COVID, that would not be controlled for.

 

Actually, I was going to ask, "If there is a boardmember in Portugal or Spain..." but I mistakenly assumed there was not. Thank you for correcting my misconception!  ;D

 

Heat waves tend to cause excess death for older people in Europe ( and other risk factors that tend to overlap with CoVID-19 risk factors too ) because man homes don’t have air conditioning causing heat stress for people.

 

The rest of Europe has a heat wave too and it probably kills more people than CoVID-19 right now. Germany right now has an awful heat waves that has been going on for weeks.

[John Hjorth]

Heat waves tend to cause excess death for older people in Europe ( and other risk factors that tend to overlap with CoVID-19 risk factors too ) because man homes don’t have air conditioning causing heat stress for people.

 

The rest of Europe has a heat wave too and it probably kills more people than CoVID-19 right now. Germany right now has an awful heat waves that has been going on for weeks.

 

I think what Spekulatius posted here is true, with regard to Europe.

 

It will eventually change over time, I think [about air condition in homes]. I'm working on it for my own household. I think some threshold got broken here back in 2016 [i simply got enough of the heat in June 2016].

 

I have been told that persons of high age simply gradually "shut down", loosing their feeling of thirst and hunger. It creates a mess when we have heat waves.

[Castanza]

Heat waves tend to cause excess death for older people in Europe ( and other risk factors that tend to overlap with CoVID-19 risk factors too ) because man homes don’t have air conditioning causing heat stress for people.

 

The rest of Europe has a heat wave too and it probably kills more people than CoVID-19 right now. Germany right now has an awful heat waves that has been going on for weeks.

 

I think what Spekulatius posted here is true, with regard to Europe.

 

It will eventually change over time, I think [about air condition in homes]. I'm working on it for my own household. I think some threshold got broken here back in 2016 [i simply got enough of the heat in June 2016].

 

I have been told that persons of high age simply gradually "shut down", loosing their feeling of thirst and hunger. It creates a mess when we have heat waves.

 

Old people are like leftovers. They require constant refrigeration so as to not spoil.  ;D

[Casey]

Looks like there was some abnormal excess mortality in Portugal & Spain, based on Euromomo. However these statistics lag by aprox 2 weeks. Recent reports indicate COVID severity is falling: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-portugal/portugal-reports-no-coronavirus-deaths-for-first-time-since-march-idUSKCN24Z1VB

 

Curious where you've seen 'severity falling?' Awesome news if so.

 

I'd read that it was unlikely for this virus to mutate/change too quickly (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01315-7)

[John Hjorth]

Old people are like leftovers. They require constant refrigeration so as to not spoil.  ;D

 

Castanza,

 

It's actually great input! [ : - D] -We really need that in this topic, because of the existing ongoing hostility among members in this topic [, despite the content of this topic is actually gold, if one filters it].

 

-Please forget here about me and my needs for cooling ... - I'm almost the same age as Mike [boilermaker].

[Read the Footnotes]

"The Unique U.S. Failure to Control the Virus

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/06/us/united-states-failure-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

A couple of notable quotes:

 

First, the United States faced longstanding challenges in confronting a major pandemic. It is a large country at the nexus of the global economy, with a tradition of prioritizing individualism over government restrictions. That tradition is one reason the United States suffers from an unequal health care system that has long produced worse medical outcomes — including higher infant mortality and diabetes rates and lower life expectancy — than in most other rich countries.

 

“As an American, I think there is a lot of good to be said about our libertarian tradition,” Dr. Jared Baeten, an epidemiologist and vice dean at the University of Washington School of Public Health, said. “But this is the consequence — we don’t succeed as well as a collective.”

The second major theme is one that public health experts often find uncomfortable to discuss because many try to steer clear of partisan politics. But many agree that the poor results in the United States stem in substantial measure from the performance of the Trump administration.

 

In no other high-income country — and in only a few countries, period — have political leaders departed from expert advice as frequently and significantly as the Trump administration. President Trump has said the virus was not serious; predicted it would disappear; spent weeks questioning the need for masks; encouraged states to reopen even with large and growing caseloads; and promoted medical disinformation.

Already, the American death toll is of a different order of magnitude than in most other countries. With only 4 percent of the world’s population, the United States has accounted for 22 percent of coronavirus deaths. Canada, a rich country that neighbors the United States, has a per capita death rate about half as large. And these gaps may worsen in coming weeks, given the lag between new cases and deaths.

 

Early in the pandemic, Austan Goolsbee, a University of Chicago economist and former Obama administration official, proposed what he called the first rule of virus economics: “The best way to fix the economy is to get control of the virus,” he said. Until the virus was under control, many people would be afraid to resume normal life and the economy would not function normally.

In large parts of the United States, officials chose to reopen before medical experts thought it wise, in an attempt to put people back to work and spark the economy. Instead, the United States sparked a huge new virus outbreak — and the economy did not seem to benefit.

 

“Politicians are not in control,” Mr. Goolsbee said. “They got all the illness and still didn’t fix their economies.”

 

The situation is different in the European Union and other regions that have had more success reducing new virus cases. Their economies have begun showing some promising signs, albeit tentative ones. In Germany, retail sales and industrial production have risen, and the most recent unemployment rate was 6.4 percent. In the United States, it was 11.1 percent.

But there is one way — in addition to the scale of the continuing outbreaks and deaths — that the United States stands apart: In no other high-income country have the messages from political leaders been nearly so mixed and confusing.

 

These messages, in turn, have been amplified by television stations and websites friendly to the Republican Party, especially Fox News and the Sinclair Broadcast Group, which operates almost 200 local stations. To anybody listening to the country’s politicians or watching these television stations, it would have been difficult to know how to respond to the virus.

 

Mr. Trump’s comments, in particular, have regularly contradicted the views of scientists and medical experts.

 

Many experts now say that the most disappointing part of the country’s failure is that the outcome was avoidable.

When countries and cities have heeded these lessons, they have rapidly reduced the spread of the virus and been able to move back, gingerly, toward normal life. In South Korea, fans have been able to attend baseball games in recent weeks. In Denmark, Italy and other parts of Europe, children have returned to school.

 

In the United States, the virus continues to overwhelm daily life.

 

“This isn’t actually rocket science,” said Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, who ran the New York City health department and the C.D.C. for a combined 15 years. “We know what to do, and we’re not doing it.”

[Investor20]

"The Unique U.S. Failure to Control the Virus

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/06/us/united-states-failure-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

A couple of notable quotes:

 

First, the United States faced longstanding challenges in confronting a major pandemic. It is a large country at the nexus of the global economy, with a tradition of prioritizing individualism over government restrictions. That tradition is one reason the United States suffers from an unequal health care system that has long produced worse medical outcomes — including higher infant mortality and diabetes rates and lower life expectancy — than in most other rich countries.

 

“As an American, I think there is a lot of good to be said about our libertarian tradition,” Dr. Jared Baeten, an epidemiologist and vice dean at the University of Washington School of Public Health, said. “But this is the consequence — we don’t succeed as well as a collective.”

The second major theme is one that public health experts often find uncomfortable to discuss because many try to steer clear of partisan politics. But many agree that the poor results in the United States stem in substantial measure from the performance of the Trump administration.

 

In no other high-income country — and in only a few countries, period — have political leaders departed from expert advice as frequently and significantly as the Trump administration. President Trump has said the virus was not serious; predicted it would disappear; spent weeks questioning the need for masks; encouraged states to reopen even with large and growing caseloads; and promoted medical disinformation.

Already, the American death toll is of a different order of magnitude than in most other countries. With only 4 percent of the world’s population, the United States has accounted for 22 percent of coronavirus deaths. Canada, a rich country that neighbors the United States, has a per capita death rate about half as large. And these gaps may worsen in coming weeks, given the lag between new cases and deaths.

 

Early in the pandemic, Austan Goolsbee, a University of Chicago economist and former Obama administration official, proposed what he called the first rule of virus economics: “The best way to fix the economy is to get control of the virus,” he said. Until the virus was under control, many people would be afraid to resume normal life and the economy would not function normally.

In large parts of the United States, officials chose to reopen before medical experts thought it wise, in an attempt to put people back to work and spark the economy. Instead, the United States sparked a huge new virus outbreak — and the economy did not seem to benefit.

 

“Politicians are not in control,” Mr. Goolsbee said. “They got all the illness and still didn’t fix their economies.”

 

The situation is different in the European Union and other regions that have had more success reducing new virus cases. Their economies have begun showing some promising signs, albeit tentative ones. In Germany, retail sales and industrial production have risen, and the most recent unemployment rate was 6.4 percent. In the United States, it was 11.1 percent.

But there is one way — in addition to the scale of the continuing outbreaks and deaths — that the United States stands apart: In no other high-income country have the messages from political leaders been nearly so mixed and confusing.

 

These messages, in turn, have been amplified by television stations and websites friendly to the Republican Party, especially Fox News and the Sinclair Broadcast Group, which operates almost 200 local stations. To anybody listening to the country’s politicians or watching these television stations, it would have been difficult to know how to respond to the virus.

 

Mr. Trump’s comments, in particular, have regularly contradicted the views of scientists and medical experts.

 

Many experts now say that the most disappointing part of the country’s failure is that the outcome was avoidable.

When countries and cities have heeded these lessons, they have rapidly reduced the spread of the virus and been able to move back, gingerly, toward normal life. In South Korea, fans have been able to attend baseball games in recent weeks. In Denmark, Italy and other parts of Europe, children have returned to school.

 

In the United States, the virus continues to overwhelm daily life.

 

“This isn’t actually rocket science,” said Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, who ran the New York City health department and the C.D.C. for a combined 15 years. “We know what to do, and we’re not doing it.”

 

NJ has 1793 deaths/million

NY has 1687 deaths/million

 

Texas has 280 deaths/million

Florida has 361 deaths/million

 

Are you saying NY & NJ listened to Trump and Texas & Florida did not listen to Trump?

 

IF you go by deaths per million, the top 10 states are

New Jersey, New York, Massachussetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Louisiana, District of Columbia, Michigan, Illinois, Missisippi.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

 

 

 

[Cigarbutt]

...

NJ has 1793 deaths/million

NY has 1687 deaths/million

Texas has 280 deaths/million

Florida has 361 deaths/million

Are you saying NY & NJ listened to Trump and Texas & Florida did not listen to Trump?

IF you go by deaths per million, the top 10 states are

New Jersey, New York, Massachussetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Louisiana, District of Columbia, Michigan, Illinois, Missisippi.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Submitted with respect and a firm commitment to USD-invest during the restructuring.

 

This 'episode' (IMHO and depending how you define 'success') required coordination, collaboration and cooperation. Some people question the value of orchestra conductors. After all, it's the free market that produces virtuosos. A center and balanced medium looked at this:

https://www.npr.org/sections/deceptivecadence/2012/11/27/165677915/do-orchestras-really-need-conductors

Conductors and especially talented maestros can make a difference but of course there's the issue of control..

 

In related news:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/317018/one-three-americans-not-covid-vaccine.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_content=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

A fascinating aspect is that there may a parallel in the partisan divide for the by-mail or in-person voting preference.

Today i'm lsitening to If Today Was Your Last Day and it's a great song.

https://medium.com/@erikrittenberry/the-american-life-is-killing-you-9e7e68135f4a

 

 

 

[Gregmal]

"The Unique U.S. Failure to Control the Virus

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/06/us/united-states-failure-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

A couple of notable quotes:

 

First, the United States faced longstanding challenges in confronting a major pandemic. It is a large country at the nexus of the global economy, with a tradition of prioritizing individualism over government restrictions. That tradition is one reason the United States suffers from an unequal health care system that has long produced worse medical outcomes — including higher infant mortality and diabetes rates and lower life expectancy — than in most other rich countries.

 

“As an American, I think there is a lot of good to be said about our libertarian tradition,” Dr. Jared Baeten, an epidemiologist and vice dean at the University of Washington School of Public Health, said. “But this is the consequence — we don’t succeed as well as a collective.”

The second major theme is one that public health experts often find uncomfortable to discuss because many try to steer clear of partisan politics. But many agree that the poor results in the United States stem in substantial measure from the performance of the Trump administration.

 

In no other high-income country — and in only a few countries, period — have political leaders departed from expert advice as frequently and significantly as the Trump administration. President Trump has said the virus was not serious; predicted it would disappear; spent weeks questioning the need for masks; encouraged states to reopen even with large and growing caseloads; and promoted medical disinformation.

Already, the American death toll is of a different order of magnitude than in most other countries. With only 4 percent of the world’s population, the United States has accounted for 22 percent of coronavirus deaths. Canada, a rich country that neighbors the United States, has a per capita death rate about half as large. And these gaps may worsen in coming weeks, given the lag between new cases and deaths.

 

Early in the pandemic, Austan Goolsbee, a University of Chicago economist and former Obama administration official, proposed what he called the first rule of virus economics: “The best way to fix the economy is to get control of the virus,” he said. Until the virus was under control, many people would be afraid to resume normal life and the economy would not function normally.

In large parts of the United States, officials chose to reopen before medical experts thought it wise, in an attempt to put people back to work and spark the economy. Instead, the United States sparked a huge new virus outbreak — and the economy did not seem to benefit.

 

“Politicians are not in control,” Mr. Goolsbee said. “They got all the illness and still didn’t fix their economies.”

 

The situation is different in the European Union and other regions that have had more success reducing new virus cases. Their economies have begun showing some promising signs, albeit tentative ones. In Germany, retail sales and industrial production have risen, and the most recent unemployment rate was 6.4 percent. In the United States, it was 11.1 percent.

But there is one way — in addition to the scale of the continuing outbreaks and deaths — that the United States stands apart: In no other high-income country have the messages from political leaders been nearly so mixed and confusing.

 

These messages, in turn, have been amplified by television stations and websites friendly to the Republican Party, especially Fox News and the Sinclair Broadcast Group, which operates almost 200 local stations. To anybody listening to the country’s politicians or watching these television stations, it would have been difficult to know how to respond to the virus.

 

Mr. Trump’s comments, in particular, have regularly contradicted the views of scientists and medical experts.

 

Many experts now say that the most disappointing part of the country’s failure is that the outcome was avoidable.

When countries and cities have heeded these lessons, they have rapidly reduced the spread of the virus and been able to move back, gingerly, toward normal life. In South Korea, fans have been able to attend baseball games in recent weeks. In Denmark, Italy and other parts of Europe, children have returned to school.

 

In the United States, the virus continues to overwhelm daily life.

 

“This isn’t actually rocket science,” said Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, who ran the New York City health department and the C.D.C. for a combined 15 years. “We know what to do, and we’re not doing it.”

 

NJ has 1793 deaths/million

NY has 1687 deaths/million

 

Texas has 280 deaths/million

Florida has 361 deaths/million

 

Are you saying NY & NJ listened to Trump and Texas & Florida did not listen to Trump?

 

IF you go by deaths per million, the top 10 states are

New Jersey, New York, Massachussetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Louisiana, District of Columbia, Michigan, Illinois, Missisippi.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

Exactly. There's certain areas where politics plays a bigger part than others, and theres many where its just a convenient narrative. Any idea why, say, NYC, despite a rather negligible number of new daily COVID cases(for months now) has seen such muted recovery and virtually no uptick in many areas? Yet, say Georgia and Florida, despite basically experiencing similar daily case # as NY/NJ did during their peaks...continue to hold up better?

[Read the Footnotes]

 

Submitted with respect and a firm commitment to USD-invest during the restructuring.

 

This 'episode' (IMHO and depending how you define 'success') required coordination, collaboration and cooperation. Some people question the value of orchestra conductors. After all, it's the free market that produces virtuosos. A center and balanced medium looked at this:

https://www.npr.org/sections/deceptivecadence/2012/11/27/165677915/do-orchestras-really-need-conductors

Conductors and especially talented maestros can make a difference but of course there's the issue of control..

 

In related news:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/317018/one-three-americans-not-covid-vaccine.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_content=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

A fascinating aspect is that there may a parallel in the partisan divide for the by-mail or in-person voting preference.

Today i'm lsitening to If Today Was Your Last Day and it's a great song.

https://medium.com/@erikrittenberry/the-american-life-is-killing-you-9e7e68135f4a

Great article and good points.

 

The NPR segment reminds me of a story about a bird.

 

A man walks in to a pet store looking to buy a bird and he sees a rather plain looking bird in a cage that is selling for $1,000. The customer asks "what's so special about this bird?"

 

The shopkeeper answers, "This bird can sing all of the Mozart operas perfectly."

 

The customer moves to the next bird in a cage with a $5,000 sign on it. "And this one," he asks.

 

"Well this is a very special bird" the shopkeeper answers. "This bird can sing any of the most difficult arias you can think of".

 

The customer is very impressed and moves to the third cage with a $20,000 sign on it a a bird facing away from him that he can't get a good look at. "What can this bird sing?" He asks.

 

The shopkeeper answers, "as far as I can tell he can't sing anything, but the other birds call him Maestro."

 

All jokes aside, Cigarbutt makes a good point. I have known a lot of famous musicians and have known quite a few who played in major orchestras. The truth is, if you're  BS, an expert knows it immediately. If they think you're BS, they won't respect you and if they don't respect you, they all end up taking their cues from the person they do respect, so maybe the follow the first violinist and ignore the supposed conductor. In a more contemporary setting the same thing happens when the band ignores purported leader of the group and instead follows whoever they do respect such as the drummer or guitarist who becomes the de facto leader.

 

The same thing is happening in the USA right now when people ignore Trump and the Trump administration and look to leadership from Fauci, Bill Gates, local leaders, or even random people who have shown better leadership.

 

Unfortunately. some are also taking direction from crackpots, conspiracy theorists and very biased sources. My guess is that fewer people would do so if they trusted Trump and if Trump encouraged trust in expertise. The lack of trust is also certainly a contributing factor in the reluctance to take a vaccine once available as reported in the gallup link Cigarbutt provided.