Coronavirus

[Gregmal]

Well researched to whomever noted the options activity and bs-factor on the GILD study last week.

[StubbleJumper]

I am biased but this does fit the spread for weeks/months theory I purposed back in the middle of March. No? The virus very well could have been spreading exponentially (I know you guys like that word) for 6 weeks by the middle of March all across the county. That meshes with the antibody testing from Cuomo today too.

 

My original hope/thought was that we were way further up the curve then we thought back in the middle of March. Im glad for everyones /USAs sake evidence continues to come out that this is the case.

 

This is quite a clever way of moving the goalposts.  Nobody was disputing that the virus was spreading in the USA in March--or even in February. The thing everyone disagreed with was that there hundreds of thousands or millions of cases in March.

 

So I guess this is admission you were wrong while trying to rewrite what you said and what the actual disagreement was about?

 

(Like, good grief--why is it so hard for you to say that your speculation was wrong? It was a speculation, and speculations are often wrong. Why the heck would you allow a random speculation to bias you in such a huge way for everything that came afterward, rather than say, "Hey that speculation was wrong, but this is my view on what's happening now"?  So brutal!)

 

 

Richard, there are 800k+ confirmed covid cases in the US.  Some of the population studies that have recently come to light over the past week suggest that 10x or 20x the confirmed number might be carrying antibodies.  If that's actually true (big if), the number of people in the US with antibodies today could be 8 to 16 million.  Now, suppose the number of cases has been doubling every week for the past 3 weeks while we have all been social distancing.  Working the exponential growth backwards, how many people had antibodies on April 2 if there actually are 8m to 16m that have antibodies today?  My rough math is 1 or 2 million in the US?  How is that inconsistent with hundreds of thousands or millions during March?

 

 

SJ

[Liberty]

Bill Gates' State of the Pandemic essay.

 

https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/Pandemic-Innovation?WT.mc_id=20200423060000_Pandemic-Innovation_BG-EM_&WT.tsrc=BGEM

 

Other than the obvious (the content), there are a couple things  I find interesting. First, the language is simple to the extent that I find it distracting. Maybe it's written at something like a 3rd-4th grade reading level? I think he wants this to be accessible to everyone possible, even those with poor English skills.

 

Second, the reference to opening churches isn't consistent with the rest of the essay, since there's negligible economic value to opening churches, and therefore it's pretty obvious that they should be among the last things open. Rather, I think he threw that in there so that the religious people have a better chance of supporting the approach he proposes.

 

"If every infection goes from causing 2.0 cases to only causing 0.7 infections, then after 40 days you have one-sixth as many infections instead of 32 times as many. That’s 192 times fewer cases."

 

"Entire sectors of the economy are shut down. It is important to realize that this is not just the result of government policies restricting activities. When people hear that an infectious disease is spreading widely, they change their behavior. There was never a choice to have the strong economy of 2019 in 2020."

[Guest cherzeca]

 

21% tested positive for antibodies in NYC.  3000 person sample.  isn't that consistent with the NYC pregnant woman test?

 

yes cigarbutt, this is akin to the flu.

[Gregmal]

I find it amusing how everyone wrote off orthopa after a couple days worth of fear driven Twitter posts and bs models. Within a few weeks he was largely mocked. And now all the data is seemingly validating what he said. The notion that there were significantly more cases than testing implied, and that the rise of testing coincided with the rise is confirmed cases, was, or should I say, should have been common sense. Oh well

[Liberty]

Remember, the sensitivity and specificity of these antibody tests matters a lot, and NYC is very different from the rest of the country, as the epicenter of the epidemic. There's got to be a lot of false positives in those tests even if 99%, and you can't extrapolate it to the rest of the country.

[Guest Schwab711]

 

21% tested positive for antibodies in NYC.  3000 person sample.  isn't that consistent with the NYC pregnant woman test?

 

yes cigarbutt, this is akin to the flu.

 

15% of pregnant woman were actively infected. Larger, random study suggests 21% of NYC population had antibodies. Stock vs flow. I think the pregnant woman study suggests that spread is occurring at the hospital/doctors office ass opposed to representative of the broader population. If pregnant woman were representative, then COVID spreads like measles (even in lockdown) and antibody tests should show some much higher % (or you can be reinfected).

[Guest cherzeca]

Remember, the sensitivity and specificity of these antibody tests matters a lot, and NYC is very different from the rest of the country, as the epicenter of the epidemic. There's got to be a lot of false positives in those tests even if 99%, and you can't extrapolate it to the rest of the country.

 

who needs to extrapolate to the rest of the country, for goodness sakes!!!  apples to apples.  NYC is the epicenter of the crisis, and because major media is NYC-centric, the mass hysteria was exported.  why does the governor of michigan go stalinesque?  because she wants to look like she is on top of things like cuomo.  so of course this doesnt have to be extrapolated nationwide, because NYC's experience isn't the nation's experience.  this 20% antibody positive rate makes covid less deadly than the flu.  and if this result doesnt comport with how you want to think, then just call it a bad test.  an inhale some more sand

[clutch]

Seriously, we should hope that these antibody testing results are accurate. It means that fewer people will die than expected over the course of the pandemic and there is a good chance that we will reach herd immunity before any vaccine is produced. But when you are political, any findings that go against your original narrative is bad news.

[Guest cherzeca]

Remember, the sensitivity and specificity of these antibody tests matters a lot, and NYC is very different from the rest of the country, as the epicenter of the epidemic. There's got to be a lot of false positives in those tests even if 99%, and you can't extrapolate it to the rest of the country.

 

who needs to extrapolate to the rest of the country, for goodness sakes!!!  apples to apples.  NYC is the epicenter of the crisis, and because major media is NYC-centric, the mass hysteria was exported.  why does the governor of michigan go stalinesque?  because she wants to look like she is on top of things like cuomo.  so of course this doesnt have to be extrapolated nationwide, because NYC's experience isn't the nation's experience.  this 20% antibody positive rate makes covid less deadly than the flu.  and if this result doesnt comport with how you want to think, then just call it a bad test.  an inhale some more sand

 

NYC:  11,267 deaths divided by 21% of 8,000,000 people=mortality rate of 0.67%.  just like the flu.

[Guest cherzeca]

Remember, the sensitivity and specificity of these antibody tests matters a lot, and NYC is very different from the rest of the country, as the epicenter of the epidemic. There's got to be a lot of false positives in those tests even if 99%, and you can't extrapolate it to the rest of the country.

 

who needs to extrapolate to the rest of the country, for goodness sakes!!!  apples to apples.  NYC is the epicenter of the crisis, and because major media is NYC-centric, the mass hysteria was exported.  why does the governor of michigan go stalinesque?  because she wants to look like she is on top of things like cuomo.  so of course this doesnt have to be extrapolated nationwide, because NYC's experience isn't the nation's experience.  this 20% antibody positive rate makes covid less deadly than the flu.  and if this result doesnt comport with how you want to think, then just call it a bad test.  an inhale some more sand

 

NYC:  11,267 deaths divided by 21% of 8,000,000 people=mortality rate of 0.67%.  just like the flu.

 

21% likely understates the infection rate as the 3000 adult sample group tested for covid antibodies did not include children, who may have a higher infection (without symptoms) rate

[Casey]

More context on how to interpret ~21%. From twitter

 

"The tests came from people in grocery and big box stores. Cuomo said this was important because it came from people who were out — not people isolating at home."

[tng]

 

who needs to extrapolate to the rest of the country, for goodness sakes!!!  apples to apples.  NYC is the epicenter of the crisis, and because major media is NYC-centric, the mass hysteria was exported.  why does the governor of michigan go stalinesque?  because she wants to look like she is on top of things like cuomo.  so of course this doesnt have to be extrapolated nationwide, because NYC's experience isn't the nation's experience.  this 20% antibody positive rate makes covid less deadly than the flu.  and if this result doesnt comport with how you want to think, then just call it a bad test.  an inhale some more sand

 

At some point, science is going to prove common sense again and we will learn/confirm that the majority of New York's cases (and likely Boston's cases too) come from their reliance on their subway system. That is six million people in extremely tightly packed trains with poor ventilation every day (likely two trips a day, mostly during rush hours). I suspect that the subway system at New York combined with the international travel due to New York City being the premiere business hub in the world is actually the biggest vector of worldwide transmission and spread. How do we reopen New York City without an explosion of cases again due to everybody needing the subway system? That is a very hard question. Maybe New York will have to operate for a while without subways (it would be a pain for a lot of people). But sparse rural areas in the U.S. should not be waiting forever until New York figures that out.

[KCLarkin]

NYC:  11,267 deaths divided by 21% of 8,000,000 people=mortality rate of 0.67%.  just like the flu.

 

I love the confidence! Even though you are so consistently proven wrong, you still post with gusto! What is the Infection Fatality Rate of the flu? Nobody actually believes it is 0.67%, do they?

 

This comprehensive review shows ~10 deaths per 100,000 H1N1infections:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/

 

So comparing your bogus numbers for CV to these bogus numbers for H1N1, CV is 67 times more deadly than the flu!

 

Edit to add: your bogus "mortality rate" also ignores the significant delay between infection and death. So your numerator is significantly understated.

[Guest cherzeca]

More context on how to interpret ~21%. From twitter

 

"The tests came from people in grocery and big box stores. Cuomo said this was important because it came from people who were out — not people isolating at home."

 

this is stupid by cuomo.  people who isolate at home also need to go shopping for food or needed items. or would cuomo like to go the next step and hermetically seal everyone for the next month?

[Guest cherzeca]

NYC:  11,267 deaths divided by 21% of 8,000,000 people=mortality rate of 0.67%.  just like the flu.

 

I love the confidence! Even though you are so consistently proven wrong, you still post with gusto! What is the Infection Fatality Rate of the flu? Nobody actually believes it is 0.67%, do they?

 

This comprehensive review shows ~10 deaths per 100,000 H1N1infections:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/

 

So comparing your bogus numbers for CV to these bogus numbers for H1N1, CV is 67 times more deadly than the flu!

 

I love the stupidity!  the 21% positive antibody test results on NYCers (3000 person sample) is the best DATUM we have on creating the correct denominator of the mortality per infection rate.  what is your problem, Larkin?

 

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

[Viking]

Remember, the sensitivity and specificity of these antibody tests matters a lot, and NYC is very different from the rest of the country, as the epicenter of the epidemic. There's got to be a lot of false positives in those tests even if 99%, and you can't extrapolate it to the rest of the country.

 

who needs to extrapolate to the rest of the country, for goodness sakes!!!  apples to apples.  NYC is the epicenter of the crisis, and because major media is NYC-centric, the mass hysteria was exported.  why does the governor of michigan go stalinesque?  because she wants to look like she is on top of things like cuomo.  so of course this doesnt have to be extrapolated nationwide, because NYC's experience isn't the nation's experience.  this 20% antibody positive rate makes covid less deadly than the flu.  and if this result doesnt comport with how you want to think, then just call it a bad test.  an inhale some more sand

 

NYC:  11,267 deaths divided by 21% of 8,000,000 people=mortality rate of 0.67%.  just like the flu.

 

In all of the US last year there were a total of 15,500 murders. The death rate is infinitely lower than the flu (not just like the flu). Therefore we can now conclude that murders are not important. All the effort put in by law enforcement to solve them is a complete waste of time. Judiciary? Waste of time and resources. Jails? Who will need them moving forward? 

 

Bottom line, we now have out metric to determine if an activity is useful to society: how does is compare statistically to the flu?

 

We have been so blind for so long. Thanks to those on the board who keep pushing this logic... i finally understand (so you can stop anytime :-)

[JRM]

What if the death rate is the same as the flue (that would be good), but what if it spreads much faster.  What if (hypothetically) everyone was infected at the same time.  Is that a problem?

[Guest cherzeca]

What if the death rate is the same as the flue (that would be good), but what if it spreads much faster.  What if (hypothetically) everyone was infected at the same time.  Is that a problem?

 

everyone like dalal has been quoting a mortality rate of 3-4% for covid, which is too high by at least 5X.  during 2018 flu season in US, 80,000 deaths were attributed to flu...and there was no mass shutdown by an overweaning government.  so context is important.

 

your question is interesting and my tentative response is the vector speed is important when considering hospital ICU capacity, and perhaps going forward there needs to be not only stockpiling of PPE but also flexibility for ICU expansion on short notice.

 

my buddy, a pulmonologist in Jax, responded to an urgent call for critical care MDs from Lincoln hospital, bronx.  their normal ICU bed capacity was 34 ICU beds and they had to expand to 241 ICU beds.  MASH like.  so my buddy spent two weeks learning its medical records and other protocols and actually got himself approved as an admitting physician at Lincoln!  what a mensch!  then he gets a text from the head of medicine at Lincoln saying, never mind, we are all good, no need to come.  crisis over

 

so capacities are important but so is speed of response. which your question raises.

[jondoug]

Remember, the sensitivity and specificity of these antibody tests matters a lot, and NYC is very different from the rest of the country, as the epicenter of the epidemic. There's got to be a lot of false positives in those tests even if 99%, and you can't extrapolate it to the rest of the country.

 

who needs to extrapolate to the rest of the country, for goodness sakes!!!  apples to apples.  NYC is the epicenter of the crisis, and because major media is NYC-centric, the mass hysteria was exported.  why does the governor of michigan go stalinesque?  because she wants to look like she is on top of things like cuomo.  so of course this doesnt have to be extrapolated nationwide, because NYC's experience isn't the nation's experience.  this 20% antibody positive rate makes covid less deadly than the flu.  and if this result doesnt comport with how you want to think, then just call it a bad test.  an inhale some more sand

 

NYC:  11,267 deaths divided by 21% of 8,000,000 people=mortality rate of 0.67%.  just like the flu.

 

Elementary math, 330M US Population * 0.67% = 330 * 0.0067 = 2.211M. Yeah, more than 2M people dying is just like the flu.

[Dalal.Holdings]

What if the death rate is the same as the flue (that would be good), but what if it spreads much faster.  What if (hypothetically) everyone was infected at the same time.  Is that a problem?

 

everyone like dalal has been quoting a mortality rate of 3-4% for covid,

 

Don't misquote me.

[Dalal.Holdings]

This is quite a clever way of moving the goalposts.  Nobody was disputing that the virus was spreading in the USA in March--or even in February. The thing everyone disagreed with was that there hundreds of thousands or millions of cases in March.

 

So I guess this is admission you were wrong while trying to rewrite what you said and what the actual disagreement was about?

 

(Like, good grief--why is it so hard for you to say that your speculation was wrong? It was a speculation, and speculations are often wrong. Why the heck would you allow a random speculation to bias you in such a huge way for everything that came afterward, rather than say, "Hey that speculation was wrong, but this is my view on what's happening now"?  So brutal!)

 

The goalposts are moving so fast it's hard to keep track. Reminds me of TSLAQ. In the middle of March it was speculated repeatedly that "covid was here widespread for months" and there were hundreds of thousands/millions cases undetected "months ago" (i.e. that would imply January). Now they're saying they said the whole time that it was widespread in the middle of March, not January. Gee, isn't that interesting. It was those of us on here from the end of February pounding the table saying it was exponentially exploding here in the U.S. starting in March and people like Cuomo who said we needed to lock down in March because cases were getting out of hand. Clever attempt to move the posts.

 

Oh well. It's not my job to inform and correct the record. Not my idea of time well spent. Keep on keeping on.

[Guest cherzeca]

Remember, the sensitivity and specificity of these antibody tests matters a lot, and NYC is very different from the rest of the country, as the epicenter of the epidemic. There's got to be a lot of false positives in those tests even if 99%, and you can't extrapolate it to the rest of the country.

 

who needs to extrapolate to the rest of the country, for goodness sakes!!!  apples to apples.  NYC is the epicenter of the crisis, and because major media is NYC-centric, the mass hysteria was exported.  why does the governor of michigan go stalinesque?  because she wants to look like she is on top of things like cuomo.  so of course this doesnt have to be extrapolated nationwide, because NYC's experience isn't the nation's experience.  this 20% antibody positive rate makes covid less deadly than the flu.  and if this result doesnt comport with how you want to think, then just call it a bad test.  an inhale some more sand

 

NYC:  11,267 deaths divided by 21% of 8,000,000 people=mortality rate of 0.67%.  just like the flu.

 

Elementary math, 330M US Population * 0.67% = 330 * 0.0067 = 2.211M. Yeah, more than 2M people dying is just like the flu.

 

they dipstick, mortality rate is a % of infected, not a % of population.  elementary common sense

[Guest cherzeca]

What if the death rate is the same as the flue (that would be good), but what if it spreads much faster.  What if (hypothetically) everyone was infected at the same time.  Is that a problem?

 

everyone like dalal has been quoting a mortality rate of 3-4% for covid,

 

Don't misquote me.

 

dont have to dipstick.  your hubristic pronouncements are all over this thread

[Dalal.Holdings]

What if the death rate is the same as the flue (that would be good), but what if it spreads much faster.  What if (hypothetically) everyone was infected at the same time.  Is that a problem?

 

everyone like dalal has been quoting a mortality rate of 3-4% for covid,

 

Don't misquote me.

 

dont have to dipstick.  your hubristic pronouncements are all over this thread

 

Keep up the good work, you treasure you.