Coronavirus

[Liberty]

Rhonda Patrick (research scientist) podcast Q&A on various COVID19-related stuff:

 

https://www.foundmyfitness.com/episodes/covid-19-episode-1

Nice find Liberty.  Good thing I am a REDNECK!

 

Vitamin D and respiratory tract infectionsVitamin D is a steroid hormone. It is available in small quantities in food, but the primary source is via endogenous synthesis. This process occurs in a stepwise manner that starts in the skin following exposure to ultraviolet light and continues in the liver and kidneys, where the vitamin's active hormone form is made. Since ultraviolet light is required for vitamin D synthesis, reduced exposure to the sun or having dark-colored skin impairs vitamin D production. Approximately 70 percent of people living in the United States are vitamin D insufficient and ~30 percent are deficient.Robust evidence suggests that vitamin D is protective against respiratory tract infections. Data from 25 randomized controlled trials from around the world demonstrate that daily or weekly supplementation of vitamin D reduced the risk of acute respiratory infection by more than 50 percent in people with low baseline vitamin D levels. People with higher baseline vitamin D levels also benefited, although the effect was more modest, with only a 10 percent risk reduction. Vitamin D and the renin-angiotensin-systemhttps://www.foundmyfitness.com/episodes/covid-19-episode-1 

 

I've been taking 5,000-8,000 UIs daily for a long time (10+ years), and lately I've been taking 10,000 UI/day. Make sure you take gelcaps and not dry tablets, it's fat soluble and much better absorbed that way. Also, with a big meal, better absorption there too.

[LongHaul]

South Korea has done an incredible job of "killing" the Virus.  They had ~ 8 new cases yesterday (source worldometer https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/).

The number of cases in South Korea spiked in Feb 2020 and then were down drastically by March 9.

South Korea had social distancing and distributed masks to all its citizens very early.

 

I give them an A+ for effectiveness.

 

Trump - could have seen this and just copied them for a national response. 

He did not and as a result I give him a C- because we have tons more cases and deaths.   

BTW I would also give almost all the other western governments very low marks.  C+ to B- ish.

 

Trump is still not wearing a mask and has not distributed them or suggested people wear them to my knowledge. 

 

Trump's wiring from birth is flawed.  He is a narcissist, egomaniac, delusional, in denial, etc and he will never change. 

He is like the scorpion in the old tale about the frog crossing the river.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[LongHaul]

Rhonda Patrick (research scientist) podcast Q&A on various COVID19-related stuff:

 

https://www.foundmyfitness.com/episodes/covid-19-episode-1

Nice find Liberty.  Good thing I am a REDNECK!

 

Vitamin D and respiratory tract infectionsVitamin D is a steroid hormone. It is available in small quantities in food, but the primary source is via endogenous synthesis. This process occurs in a stepwise manner that starts in the skin following exposure to ultraviolet light and continues in the liver and kidneys, where the vitamin's active hormone form is made. Since ultraviolet light is required for vitamin D synthesis, reduced exposure to the sun or having dark-colored skin impairs vitamin D production. Approximately 70 percent of people living in the United States are vitamin D insufficient and ~30 percent are deficient.Robust evidence suggests that vitamin D is protective against respiratory tract infections. Data from 25 randomized controlled trials from around the world demonstrate that daily or weekly supplementation of vitamin D reduced the risk of acute respiratory infection by more than 50 percent in people with low baseline vitamin D levels. People with higher baseline vitamin D levels also benefited, although the effect was more modest, with only a 10 percent risk reduction. Vitamin D and the renin-angiotensin-systemhttps://www.foundmyfitness.com/episodes/covid-19-episode-1 

 

I've been taking 5,000-8,000 UIs daily for a long time (10+ years), and lately I've been taking 10,000 UI/day. Make sure you take gelcaps and not dry tablets, it's fat soluble and much better absorbed that way. Also, with a big meal, better absorption there too.

 

ok thx.  FYI - my wife got a shot for Vitamin D  (I don't remember the dosage) and it really hurt her knees.  The dosage was way too much so be careful with dosage. 

 

 

 

[Guest cherzeca]

Rhonda Patrick (research scientist) podcast Q&A on various COVID19-related stuff:

 

https://www.foundmyfitness.com/episodes/covid-19-episode-1

Nice find Liberty.  Good thing I am a REDNECK!

 

Vitamin D and respiratory tract infectionsVitamin D is a steroid hormone. It is available in small quantities in food, but the primary source is via endogenous synthesis. This process occurs in a stepwise manner that starts in the skin following exposure to ultraviolet light and continues in the liver and kidneys, where the vitamin's active hormone form is made. Since ultraviolet light is required for vitamin D synthesis, reduced exposure to the sun or having dark-colored skin impairs vitamin D production. Approximately 70 percent of people living in the United States are vitamin D insufficient and ~30 percent are deficient.Robust evidence suggests that vitamin D is protective against respiratory tract infections. Data from 25 randomized controlled trials from around the world demonstrate that daily or weekly supplementation of vitamin D reduced the risk of acute respiratory infection by more than 50 percent in people with low baseline vitamin D levels. People with higher baseline vitamin D levels also benefited, although the effect was more modest, with only a 10 percent risk reduction. Vitamin D and the renin-angiotensin-systemhttps://www.foundmyfitness.com/episodes/covid-19-episode-1 

 

I've been taking 5,000-8,000 UIs daily for a long time (10+ years), and lately I've been taking 10,000 UI/day. Make sure you take gelcaps and not dry tablets, it's fat soluble and much better absorbed that way. Also, with a big meal, better absorption there too.

 

ok thx.  FYI - my wife got a shot for Vitamin D  (I don't remember the dosage) and it really hurt her knees.  The dosage was way too much so be careful with dosage.

 

I spend a whole lot of time outside in the sun, as much as I can, shirtless in summer when gardening etc.  and yes I go to have my skin checked twice a year by dermatologist.  it has never been clear to me that the body uses vitamin d supplements as effectively as body generated...and that study wont be done because there is no money in it for any pharma...

[opihiman2]

Haven't been following this  thread, so don't know if this has been posted.  But, COVID19 has now killed more people in the U.S. than the flu did in the entire 2018-2019 year.  And that's including the shutdowns this entire month or so.  So much for the virus being just another flu.

[LC]

For context, the 2017-18 flu deaths in US were aprox 61,000 (worst year of the past decade). Current COVID deaths are 41,000.

[Cigarbutt]

In my area (Canada), about 75% of people who died were living in chronic care institutions. Half of these were living in public institutions (more frail versus other half) where pre-CV statistics showed the following:

risk of dying after admission: 20% in 3 months    45% in a year

The present situation will force a re-evaluation of previous decisions related to capital allocation (flu, chronic care) etc

For CV, it looks like the following factors to take into account (individual risk, population risk) for cost effective measures are: age and comorbidity, proximity, promiscuity and intensity.

In my area, there is a slow awakening to the fact that there have been forgotten issues such as people on waiting lists and inactivity risks.

[Spekulatius]

 

https://www.boston.com/news/health/2020/04/19/an-overlooked-possibly-fatal-coronavirus-crisis-a-dire-need-for-kidney-dialysis

 

Unforeseen knock on effect from COVID-19.

[Liberty]

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/z3ba5j/trump-is-scapegoating-the-who-but-failed-to-confirm-a-us-representative-for-3-years

 

WASHINGTON — President Trump has sought to pin the blame for his administration’s disastrous response to the novel coronavirus on the World Health Organization, painting it as too corrupt and scared of China to label the novel coronavirus a pandemic until far too late.

 

But the Trump administration and Senate Republicans never bothered to confirm a permanent representative for the United States’ seat on the WHO’s executive board, a sign of how little attention the administration paid to the global health organization until recent weeks.

 

Experts say that left the U.S. without a well-established senior voice in the U.N.’s global health body, surrendering influence to China as it worked to cover up the extent of the growing COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, and weakened America’s influence on the body during critical early-February meetings when the response to the emerging crisis was debated.

 

Dr. Nils Daulaire, who had the job for one three-year term under President Obama, said the Trump administration’s failure to have a high-level, Senate-confirmed appointee to the board handed China exactly the kind of leverage that Trump has since griped about — and potentially undercut international response to the coronavirus pandemic.

[KCLarkin]

Anyone else think it is insane that oil is down more than 100% in one day and the S&P 500 is basically unchanged?

 

Well, I guess the fact that oil is down 100% is crazy enough. But why is stock market ignoring this?

[Liberty]

https://peterattiamd.com/covid-19-whats-wrong-with-the-models/

 

[ERICOPOLY]

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/z3ba5j/trump-is-scapegoating-the-who-but-failed-to-confirm-a-us-representative-for-3-years

 

WASHINGTON — President Trump has sought to pin the blame for his administration’s disastrous response to the novel coronavirus on the World Health Organization, painting it as too corrupt and scared of China to label the novel coronavirus a pandemic until far too late.

 

But the Trump administration and Senate Republicans never bothered to confirm a permanent representative for the United States’ seat on the WHO’s executive board, a sign of how little attention the administration paid to the global health organization until recent weeks.

 

Experts say that left the U.S. without a well-established senior voice in the U.N.’s global health body, surrendering influence to China as it worked to cover up the extent of the growing COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, and weakened America’s influence on the body during critical early-February meetings when the response to the emerging crisis was debated.

 

Dr. Nils Daulaire, who had the job for one three-year term under President Obama, said the Trump administration’s failure to have a high-level, Senate-confirmed appointee to the board handed China exactly the kind of leverage that Trump has since griped about — and potentially undercut international response to the coronavirus pandemic.

 

It was Trump's job to get this done, he failed, and now he gripes about the consequence of failure.

[Liberty]

New essay by Marc Andreessen, "It's Time to Build":

 

https://a16z.com/2020/04/18/its-time-to-build/

[Liberty]

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/z3ba5j/trump-is-scapegoating-the-who-but-failed-to-confirm-a-us-representative-for-3-years

 

WASHINGTON — President Trump has sought to pin the blame for his administration’s disastrous response to the novel coronavirus on the World Health Organization, painting it as too corrupt and scared of China to label the novel coronavirus a pandemic until far too late.

 

But the Trump administration and Senate Republicans never bothered to confirm a permanent representative for the United States’ seat on the WHO’s executive board, a sign of how little attention the administration paid to the global health organization until recent weeks.

 

Experts say that left the U.S. without a well-established senior voice in the U.N.’s global health body, surrendering influence to China as it worked to cover up the extent of the growing COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, and weakened America’s influence on the body during critical early-February meetings when the response to the emerging crisis was debated.

 

Dr. Nils Daulaire, who had the job for one three-year term under President Obama, said the Trump administration’s failure to have a high-level, Senate-confirmed appointee to the board handed China exactly the kind of leverage that Trump has since griped about — and potentially undercut international response to the coronavirus pandemic.

 

It was Trump's job to get this done, he failed, and now he gripes about the consequence of failure.

 

I've said it before, but it's exactly what Michael Lewis warned about in The Fifth Risk. Incompetence (and disinterest in even trying to learn about it all, frankly) at running the very large, very complex machinery of the US government is leaving citizens at risk during crises. Countless important posts filled by either mediocre cronies selected for loyalty, or unfilled for months and years all around every department... And anyone capable who tries end ups leaving quickly because nobody with integrity and competence can handle what's required to stick around. Leadership and expertise vacuums everywhere. It'll end up costing infinitely more than having done it right from the start.

[RichardGibbons]

https://peterattiamd.com/covid-19-whats-wrong-with-the-models/

 

The odd thing in this article is the R0 of 3.5 for SARS.  I always thought that SARS didn't become a pandemic because its R0 was low enough that it was preventable. But the R0 of 3.5 indicates that wasn't the case.

 

Does anyone know why SARS ended up being no big deal? Was our test and track just so much better? Did most people already have immunity? Something else?

[Guest]

I like this guy:

 

[snailslug]

https://peterattiamd.com/covid-19-whats-wrong-with-the-models/

 

The odd thing in this article is the R0 of 3.5 for SARS.  I always thought that SARS didn't become a pandemic because its R0 was low enough that it was preventable. But the R0 of 3.5 indicates that wasn't the case.

 

Does anyone know why SARS ended up being no big deal? Was our test and track just so much better? Did most people already have immunity? Something else?

 

People get severely sick from SARS right away so you could put them in quarantine. Didn't have the problem of many asymptomatic spreaders like COVID.

[RichardGibbons]

People get severely sick from SARS right away so you could put them in quarantine. Didn't have the problem of many asymptomatic spreaders like COVID.

 

Ah, that makes sense. Thanks, slug.

[Guest cherzeca]

more common sense 

[Liberty]

 

“‘Get out there and get the job done,’ he tweeted to the governor of New York. If only he were in a position to offer more than verbal encouragement!“

[Liberty]

https://twitter.com/cloisterres/status/1252358722241695745?s=21

 

SEROLOGY

 

TESTS

 

AREN'T

 

USEFUL

 

WHEN

 

THE

 

TRUE

 

POPULATION

 

PREVALENCE

 

IS

 

CLOSE

 

TO

 

THE

 

FALSE

 

POSITIVE

 

RATE

[samwise]

Base case: constant caseload, rolling lockdowns, 1% of the world population dies (80M) or whatever the true death rate is. Bad for the economy also.

 

I don't want to come across as cynical or anything (and I'm definitely not making any immoral suggestions), but if you look at the profile of that 1% I'm not so sure that would be bad for the economy as a whole at all.

 

Agreed. As an investor I don’t think much productive capacity is lost from the economy. But a lot of time is lost till then. If we simply had zero earnings for two years, followed by a return to normal, most investments would be bargains now.

 

But as an investor, I don’t know who owns the assets by the time we are through this. Not many businesses can survive for long at close to zero revenue, but with fixed costs like rent and interest. So the equity can be wiped, loaded with debt or diluted.

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://twitter.com/cloisterres/status/1252358722241695745?s=21

 

SEROLOGY

 

TESTS

 

AREN'T

 

USEFUL

 

WHEN

 

THE

 

TRUE

 

POPULATION

 

PREVALENCE

 

IS

 

CLOSE

 

TO

 

THE

 

FALSE

 

POSITIVE

 

RATE

 

More info:

https://online.stat.psu.edu/stat507/node/71/

[RichardGibbons]

More info:

https://online.stat.psu.edu/stat507/node/71/

 

Nah, that requires math, not just common sense. So it must be wrong.

[orthopa]

http://www.publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328

 

USC and the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health (Public Health) today released preliminary results from a collaborative scientific study that suggests infections from the new coronavirus are far more widespread - and the fatality rate much lower - in L.A. County than previously thought.

 

Based on results of the first round of testing, the research team estimates that approximately 4.1% of the county's adult population has antibody to the virus. Adjusting this estimate for statistical margin of error implies about 2.8% to 5.6% of the county's adult population has antibody to the virus- which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have had the infection. That estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county by the time of the study in early April. The number of COVID-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600.

 

If all these antibody tests are wrong they are all wrong in the same direction and same amount? Maybe if we get 2, 3, 4, 5 more studies we will know if we are being fooled by the false positive rate?

 

I agree having a poor test is no good, just like 1, 2, 3 months ago this is all new and are learning about this disease everyday. What is very concerning is relying on these tests to track and trace if they are no good. If you dont believe the lowered CFR you get with tests how do you reliably track and trace with them? What a complete and utter waste of time that is.