Coronavirus

[Viking]

Any of those that were predicting exponential deaths in Washington State have an explanation for why the death toll is only at 130 deaths? The first case was there and over 2 months ago to boot. For sure we should be way higher then that by now right? What gives?

 

I don't know anything in particular about WAsh numbers, but check this story out.

 

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/coronavirus-update-dead-covid19-doctors-hospitals

 

So what has changed in Washington State in the last 25 days that might explain why they only have 130 deaths? At the end of Feb, Washington State was not testing people, the President was telling people the ‘numbers might be going to zero‘ and Larry Kudlow was telling investor to buy the dip because stocks were cheap.

 

Now i am not a doctor so please take what i have to say with a grain of salt :-)

1.) starting around March 5 local health officials knew they had a serious problem brewing; around this time they started communicating the importance of social distancing and advising people to work from home if they can. Companies directed people to work from home. Schools shut down. Over a fairly short time this morphed to most of the state being essentially locked down.

2.) the state government and health care workers have been woking non-stop for 3 weeks to mobilize. It has been a simply incredible effort. Amazing and all involved should get a medal.

3.) testing became available

4.) it looks like all of the efforts are coming together and an Italy situation may be avoided. That was the initial mission.

 

On March 11 Google advised all people in USA work force to work from home. There were lots of other large companies doing the same thing. It is March 25 today; 2 weeks later; one would expect these efforts to start to dramatically slow the spread of the virus.

 

On March 12 the NBA shut down their season. Every other sports league followed shortly thereafter. All of these actions dramatically slowed the spread of the virus.

 

I think 14 days of isolation is about what it takes to start to have a material impact on total numbers (virus spread). Washington State is perhaps an good example that aggressive measures can help ensure an Italy type situation does not happen. That is great news.

 

Lots of other states like California appear to to be ahead of the curve with measures. This should help materially slow the number of new cases a couple of weeks later. Great news.

 

The challenge moving forward, after an Italy type disaster has been avoided, is what should Washington State do? The war will be waged on a new front and this is what i am trying to understand. I am looking out the front windshield not the rear view mirror.

[meiroy]

Thread on mask usage, including in the Czech republic:

 

 

Could help explain why Japan did so well..?

 

I understand that masks need to go to those on the frontlines first as long as there's limited supply, but as soon as supply ramps up, probably a good idea for everybody to have masks for a while. Cheap way to save lots of lives, including from the flu and other diseases, and ben R0 <1.

 

Because the Czech masks are self-made they don't have a valve and so are useful in protecting others if the mask wearer is infected.  There are many 3M and similar masks with a valve, they protect the wearer but allow the spread of the disease.

In that sense, it's better if everyone just wears Czech like masks or those cheap surgical masks.

 

 

 

 

[cubsfan]

 

The government is and will continue to take measure that down the line, create absolutely massive amounts of inflation.

 

I'm not so sure - if this gets as ugly as so many here expect (extended lockdown/deaths) - I can't see much but deflation.

The destruction of consumer confidence, wealth and purchasing power look pretty massive to me.

 

Some of this cash infusion will help mitigate - but unless this ends relatively quickly - I don't see any upward

pressure on wages and a spending consumer. 

 

In the very long run, if the US brings back jobs in a big way - maybe. Let's hope so.

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

Any of those that were predicting exponential deaths in Washington State have an explanation for why the death toll is only at 130 deaths? The first case was there and over 2 months ago to boot. For sure we should be way higher then that by now right? What gives?

 

5% of their known cases are dead.

 

And their cases are clearly growing exponentially (see link), but confirmation bias is a helluva drug.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Washington_(state)

 

Im going to post now.

 

Im going to go away for 30 days.

 

Trust me, last post for 30 days. Promise

 

Now I'm back 12 minutes later,

 

I'm retweeting every 12 seconds.

 

I'm back

 

I'm going away now.

 

Now I'm back

 

Just kidding here's more Walking Dead stuff.

 

 

 

 

 

 

What exactly are you peddling here Dalal? The Taleb infatuation is curious. He s a media personality. Should we also start quoting the Cramers and the Jon Najarian's of the world as well?

 

I was right (so was Taleb). You were wrong. You add negative value to this thread. Now go back to the politics section you frequent since you are a connoisseur for high quality, impactful level of forum posts. It is also a safe space for (former) Trump supporters like yourself.

[Cigarbutt]

Any of those that were predicting exponential deaths in Washington State have an explanation for why the death toll is only at 130 deaths? The first case was there and over 2 months ago to boot. For sure we should be way higher then that by now right? What gives?

 

I don't know anything in particular about WAsh numbers, but check this story out.

 

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/coronavirus-update-dead-covid19-doctors-hospitals

So what has changed in Washington State in the last 25 days that might explain why they only have 130 deaths? At the end of Feb, Washington State was not testing people, the President was telling people the ‘numbers might be going to zero‘ and Larry Kudlow was telling investor to buy the dip because stocks were cheap.

...

The challenge moving forward, after an Italy type disaster has been avoided, is what should Washington State do? The war will be waged on a new front and this is what i am trying to understand. I am looking out the front windshield not the rear view mirror.

Viking, your open-minded approach has been useful in assessing the potential investment implications. Keep the comments coming.

 

An interesting aspect with the US (and Canada, to a certain extent) are the large regional variations of the critical variables (socio-economic status, level and efficiency of health care resources, institutional strength for policy design and application) as a function of consequences (more Italy-like vs more others-like). For example, New Orleans and the Louisiana area have been and will be interesting to watch (it's almost like a natural experiment), with the evolution of the disease and consequences after the Mardi Gras celebrations at the end of February.

 

Speaking of a natural experiment and referring to the concept of eating one's cooking, it's been revealed that Mr. Boris Johnson has tested positive.

[Liberty]

 

Bill Gates:

[Dalal.Holdings]

Yup, this thread started out pretty interesting and informative(Viking and Spekulatus for instance I found greatly helpful in their shared thoughts) but I moved on as it became clear there was little useful discussion for investing but rather became an echo chamber for people to ramble like drunken clowns and drum up nonsensical doomsday hysteria, zombie apocalypse wet dreams, with an overcoat of political bias. I think the best investable ideas I could pry from anyone was Dalals "RCL puts" which was basically retail investor on twitter worthy, ignorant of its 200%+ annual negative carry cost. Some people just lost it. A forum full of value investors and BRK was recently trading under book but everyones scared and I guess their cash is currently earning 0% in quarantine.

 

"I moved on"

 

Oh wait here are five more posts now...

 

And please don't mock the politics section.

[Gregmal]

Any of those that were predicting exponential deaths in Washington State have an explanation for why the death toll is only at 130 deaths? The first case was there and over 2 months ago to boot. For sure we should be way higher then that by now right? What gives?

 

5% of their known cases are dead.

 

And their cases are clearly growing exponentially (see link), but confirmation bias is a helluva drug.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Washington_(state)

 

Im going to post now.

 

Im going to go away for 30 days.

 

Trust me, last post for 30 days. Promise

 

Now I'm back 12 minutes later,

 

I'm retweeting every 12 seconds.

 

I'm back

 

I'm going away now.

 

Now I'm back

 

Just kidding here's more Walking Dead stuff.

 

 

 

 

 

 

What exactly are you peddling here Dalal? The Taleb infatuation is curious. He s a media personality. Should we also start quoting the Cramers and the Jon Najarian's of the world as well?

 

I was right (so was Taleb). You were wrong. You add negative value to this thread. Now go back to the politics section you frequent since you are a connoisseur for high quality, impactful level of forum posts. It is also a safe space for (former) Trump supporters like yourself.

 

And Peter Schiff was right about the mortgage crisis too because he yelled loud for a while and then screamed even louder afterwards. Then, like Taleb, does his TV rounds and writes books basking in the attention. Others got to work and figured out how to make a few bucks in the markets during that backdrop. So I get why Taleb does what he does, you though? Aspiring author?

 

I'm now really done here. Like really. Really really. Best of luck with the zombie apocalypse.

[matts]

 

Bill Gates:

 

I was just about to post that beach tweet.

 

Sobering.

[ERICOPOLY]

Wow, Boris Johnson has it.

[Dalal.Holdings]

Any of those that were predicting exponential deaths in Washington State have an explanation for why the death toll is only at 130 deaths? The first case was there and over 2 months ago to boot. For sure we should be way higher then that by now right? What gives?

 

5% of their known cases are dead.

 

And their cases are clearly growing exponentially (see link), but confirmation bias is a helluva drug.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Washington_(state)

 

Im going to post now.

 

Im going to go away for 30 days.

 

Trust me, last post for 30 days. Promise

 

Now I'm back 12 minutes later,

 

I'm retweeting every 12 seconds.

 

I'm back

 

I'm going away now.

 

Now I'm back

 

Just kidding here's more Walking Dead stuff.

 

 

 

 

 

 

What exactly are you peddling here Dalal? The Taleb infatuation is curious. He s a media personality. Should we also start quoting the Cramers and the Jon Najarian's of the world as well?

 

I was right (so was Taleb). You were wrong. You add negative value to this thread. Now go back to the politics section you frequent since you are a connoisseur for high quality, impactful level of forum posts. It is also a safe space for (former) Trump supporters like yourself.

 

And Peter Schiff was right about the mortgage crisis too because he yelled loud for a while and then screamed even louder afterwards. Then, like Taleb, does his TV rounds and writes books basking in the attention. Others got to work and figured out how to make a few bucks in the markets during that backdrop. So I get why Taleb does what he does, you though? Aspiring author?

 

I'm now really done here. Like really. Really really. Best of luck with the zombie apocalypse.

 

Good riddance. Hope all your time in the politics section teaches you how to "make a buck".

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

Bill Gates:

 

We are all very interconnected these days. Globalization comes with hidden costs that are borne out over time from rare events like this (including when you move supply chain of critical items that you need overseas: 'When the well is dry, we know the worth of water.' -BF).

 

Taleb has written extensively about it (and those of us who waste our time reading his material recognize it).

 

During times like these you also recognize the importance of having cash on hand and not "optimizing the balance sheet by levering up 2.5x EBITDA". WEB clearly gets it (remembering those recent articles about how Berkshire was "holding too much cash").

 

 

[elliott]

Taleb might be a little over himself, but he has nothing to do with Peter Schiff (and I listen to Schiff occasionally). I started listening to Schiff in 2015 actually. Back then, he was saying the US was probably already in a recession (january it was, I think), because inventories were going up, because people didnt have any money left to spend, credit cards were already maxxed... I am not sure there has been any period since when he has not been saying a recession (more like the end of times, actually) is right on the corner. Taleb is about risk, not making predictions, not the economy.

[LC]

Taleb might be a little over himself, but he has nothing to do with Peter Schiff (and I listen to Schiff occasionally). I started listening to Schiff in 2015 actually. Back then, he was saying the US was probably already in a recession (january it was, I think), because inventories were going up, because people didnt have any money left to spend, credit cards were already maxxed... I am not sure there has been any period since when he has not been saying a recession (more like the end of times, actually) is right on the corner. Taleb is about risk, not making predictions, not the economy.

 

The funny thing for me with Taleb is that I like his advice for everything other than financial systems. Take his barbell method and in general his writings on anti-fragility and adaptability. I do not use this for an investment portfolio. But think about applying them to a healthcare system (topical, I know). It's actually pretty good advice: you want 90% of your activity to be maximized at dealing with the average caseload. But you also want adaptive systems at either end of the curve to deal with unexpected events (in either direction).

[Cigarbutt]

Taleb might be a little over himself, but he has nothing to do with Peter Schiff (and I listen to Schiff occasionally). I started listening to Schiff in 2015 actually. Back then, he was saying the US was probably already in a recession (january it was, I think), because inventories were going up, because people didnt have any money left to spend, credit cards were already maxxed... I am not sure there has been any period since when he has not been saying a recession (more like the end of times, actually) is right on the corner. Taleb is about risk, not making predictions, not the economy.

The funny thing for me with Taleb is that I like his advice for everything other than financial systems. Take his barbell method and in general his writings on anti-fragility and adaptability. I do not use this for an investment portfolio. But think about applying them to a healthcare system (topical, I know). It's actually pretty good advice: you want 90% of your activity to be maximized at dealing with the average caseload. But you also want adaptive systems at either end of the curve to deal with unexpected events (in either direction).

Mr. Taleb spends some time defining (un)expected and different swan colors.

https://medium.com/incerto/corporate-socialism-the-government-is-bailing-out-investors-managers-not-you-3b31a67bff4a

[LC]

Thanks for posting.

 

bailing out individuals based on their needs is not the same as bailing out corporations based on our need for them.

 

Funny how bottom-up legislative approaches are never passed by politicians who represent top-down interests.  :-\

[Guest cherzeca]

Wow, Boris Johnson has it.

 

what happens when you allow women to run their fingers though your hair ungloved

[Viking]

 

Bill Gates:

 

Everyone is trying to understand where we go from here. How long will the economic shut down last?

 

Bill Gates, pretty smart guy, with access to virus experts. No dog in the race.

 

China’s lock down lasted 6 weeks and then they were able to open up parts of their economy. But their lock down was vicious (resulting in short duration of 6 weeks). He thinks if the US does it well they will need to be locked down 6-10 weeks. To do it well, the US needs:

1.) national lock down

2.) dramatically improve testing (South Korea model)

 

The economic damage is driven by the amount of time the lock down lasts. State by state approach will extent the amount of time it takes and will make economic damage worse. County by county approach will be even worse.

 

His take is even with the current shut downs in New York and Washington State the virus numbers will not peak there until late April (think about that curve that is shown everywhere). And the shut downs will need to last another month afterwards. And that is if the whole US quickly follows suit. So his take is we might start to be able to open the economy up in early June (and based on what we see in China the restart of the economy is very slow and consumers are slow to spend given continuing fears of catching the virus and fear of job loss).

 

A county by county approach will not work for the simple reason that peoples movements are not controlled.  ‘Cases will grow exponentially in counties where you do not have a serious lock down’. And the counties that go back to work will allow the virus to resume its exponential growth in those areas (their low numbers today will eventually become big numbers). Trying a county by county approach will only extend the economic shut down to even longer than indicated above. Counties that go back to work early will simply start seeding new clusters in their area and they will silently spread to other counties. Again, the movement of people is not controlled within the US.

 

PS: sorry for all the edits; the 3 minute interview is packed with useful information :-)

[Spekulatius]

 

A county by county approach will not work for the simple reason that peoples movements are not controlled.  Trying a county by county approach will only extend the economic shut down to even longer than indicated above. Counties that go back to work early will simply start seeding new clusters in their area and they will silently spread to other counties. Again, the movement of people is not controlled within the US.

 

Last sentence is the key one and why I think the piecemeal  to turn back the economy County by county doesn’t work. Air travel for example can’t really be turned back on before the US is essentially Virus free. Even if you would allow it, would people actually travel? Some would but many would not I think. It’s even harder with international flights. I guess you could do it Nation by Nation, but how long will this tear. The Airlines are all Toast if this last anywhere more than a few month.

[Castanza]

 

Bill Gates:

 

Everyone is trying to understand where we go from here. How long will the economic shut down last?

 

Bill Gates, pretty smart guy, with access to virus experts. No dog in the race. His take is even with the current shut downs in New York and Washington State the virus numbers will not peak there until late April (think about that curve that is shown everywhere). And the shut downs will need to last another month afterwards. And that is if the whole US quickly follows suit. So his take is we might start to be able to open the economy up in early June (and based on what we see in China the restart of the economy is very slow and consumers are slow to spend given continuing fears of catching the virus and fear of job loss).

 

A county by county approach will not work for the simple reason that peoples movements are not controlled.  And the counties that go back to work will allow the virus to resume its exponential growth in those areas (their low numbers today will eventually become big numbers). Trying a county by county approach will only extend the economic shut down to even longer than indicated above. Counties that go back to work early will simply start seeding new clusters in their area and they will silently spread to other counties. Again, the movement of people is not controlled within the US.

 

At some point you have to let people go back to work. The government cannot provide stimulus indefinitely. I think society needs to understand there is going to be pain with this....The idea that this could have been handled different with less pain is also not completely accurate (specific to the US). I said earlier it's impossible to lock down a country of this size which relies on personal transportation. I also don't think there is a realistic method (in the US) of squishing down the curve enough to avoid overwhelming a healthcare system which is built for AVERAGES.

 

Tell people over 55 to stay home. If they have jobs provide them a loan which should be repaid. Otherwise let others get on with life. Encourage them to social distance outside of working hours. But, I have a hard time believing individuals are going to stay put for more than a month as it is.

 

I'm sure a lot of you will disagree with this...But frankly I don't care. What's on the other side of a long term lock down is far more scary.

[Viking]

 

A county by county approach will not work for the simple reason that peoples movements are not controlled.  Trying a county by county approach will only extend the economic shut down to even longer than indicated above. Counties that go back to work early will simply start seeding new clusters in their area and they will silently spread to other counties. Again, the movement of people is not controlled within the US.

 

Last sentence is the key one and why I think the piecemeal  to turn back the economy County by county doesn’t work. Air travel for example can’t really be turned back on before the US is essentially Virus free. Even if you would allow it, would people actually travel? Some would but many would not I think. It’s even harder with international flights. I guess you could do it Nation by Nation, but how long will this tear. The Airlines are all Toast if this last anywhere more than a few month.

 

China offers some great lessons on how countries and the world will look once they get control of the virus. China is now banning all foreign travel into China. They are essentially walling off their country to ensure foreigners do not bring the virus back to China. Does not sound to me like business as usual for lots of industries even once you get the virus under control.

[RichardGibbons]

At some point you have to let people go back to work. The government cannot provide stimulus indefinitely. I think society needs to understand there is going to be pain with this....The idea that this could have been handled different with less pain is also not completely accurate (specific to the US). I said earlier it's impossible to lock down a country of this size which relies on personal transportation. I also don't think there is a realistic method (in the US) of squishing down the curve enough to avoid overwhelming a healthcare system which is built for AVERAGES.

 

Yeah, everything you say in this paragraph after the first three sentences is pretty silly, so it's good that you don't care about people disagreeing with it.

 

I find it very strange that some people are convinced that in a massively complex environment, shades of grey do not exist.

[Castanza]

At some point you have to let people go back to work. The government cannot provide stimulus indefinitely. I think society needs to understand there is going to be pain with this....The idea that this could have been handled different with less pain is also not completely accurate (specific to the US). I said earlier it's impossible to lock down a country of this size which relies on personal transportation. I also don't think there is a realistic method (in the US) of squishing down the curve enough to avoid overwhelming a healthcare system which is built for AVERAGES.

 

Yeah, everything you say in this paragraph after the first three sentences is pretty silly, so it's good that you don't care about people disagreeing with it.

 

I find it very strange that some people are convinced that in a massively complex environment, shades of grey do not exist.

 

Then provide a realistic solution to the last part "I said earlier it's impossible to lock down a country of this size which relies on personal transportation. I also don't think there is a realistic method (in the US) of squishing down the curve enough to avoid overwhelming a healthcare system which is built for AVERAGES"

 

Locking down SK is very different than locking down the US. The US is 99x larger than SK and has over 250M more people....Is our healthcare system not designed based on averages?

[minten]

China offers some great lessons on how countries and the world will look once they get control of the virus. China is now banning all foreign travel into China. They are essentially walling off their country to ensure foreigners do not bring the virus back to China. Does not sound to me like business as usual for lots of industries even once you get the virus under control.

 

You're assuming tech is static though. Developments in screening have gone from virtually non existent to 10-minute tests being experimentally available in just weeks. Once you can screen people within minutes, why would you still need to shut borders?

[Viking]

 

Bill Gates:

 

Everyone is trying to understand where we go from here. How long will the economic shut down last?

 

Bill Gates, pretty smart guy, with access to virus experts. No dog in the race. His take is even with the current shut downs in New York and Washington State the virus numbers will not peak there until late April (think about that curve that is shown everywhere). And the shut downs will need to last another month afterwards. And that is if the whole US quickly follows suit. So his take is we might start to be able to open the economy up in early June (and based on what we see in China the restart of the economy is very slow and consumers are slow to spend given continuing fears of catching the virus and fear of job loss).

 

A county by county approach will not work for the simple reason that peoples movements are not controlled.  And the counties that go back to work will allow the virus to resume its exponential growth in those areas (their low numbers today will eventually become big numbers). Trying a county by county approach will only extend the economic shut down to even longer than indicated above. Counties that go back to work early will simply start seeding new clusters in their area and they will silently spread to other counties. Again, the movement of people is not controlled within the US.

 

At some point you have to let people go back to work. The government cannot provide stimulus indefinitely. I think society needs to understand there is going to be pain with this....The idea that this could have been handled different with less pain is also not completely accurate (specific to the US). I said earlier it's impossible to lock down a country of this size which relies on personal transportation. I also don't think there is a realistic method (in the US) of squishing down the curve enough to avoid overwhelming a healthcare system which is built for AVERAGES.

 

Tell people over 55 to stay home. If they have jobs provide them a loan which should be repaid. Otherwise let others get on with life. Encourage them to social distance outside of working hours. But, I have a hard time believing individuals are going to stay put for more than a month as it is.

 

I'm sure a lot of you will disagree with this...But frankly I don't care. What's on the other side of a long term lock down is far more scary.

 

With all due respect, it cracks me up when people say ‘can’t do it’. That is a completely false statement. If we have learned anything the last 2,000 years it is that humans survive because they adapt. The virus does not give a shit what you think you can or can’t do. I do know one thing: eventually a country will do what it takes to get the virus under control. They will need to make the pain stop. So they simply will have no choice in the end.

 

All that matters is if you do the right thing or not. Right now you have a model staring you in the face that works: 6-10 week national lock down. If you try a different approach you are likely going to have a much worse health and economic outcome than the 6-10 weeks lock down plan. You just do not know it yet. But you will in another 2 or 3 weeks :-) And the longer you dither the worse the health and economic damage gets.

 

The virus has hit well over 100 countries in the world. We have lots of examples as countries have tried to fight the virus. We also have decades of history of past virus outbreaks that provide useful information (obviously not the same but still useful). Lots is known about how to deal with this virus.

 

Based on what is known once a country gets to the community transfer stage it has two options:

1.) lock down: if done china style, 6 weeks of pain. Radical lifestyle changes and manic testing regime.

2.) no lock down = prolonged shit show