muscleman Posted September 5, 2020 Posted September 5, 2020 "First, it was "wear a mask, its the only vaccine we have!", then its "dont get the vaccine, it will help Trump!". After the election, assuming Biden wins, the vaccine will be the "responsible thing to do"...The narrative is always changing with these chumps." +1 Their narrative is simply crazy. Just imagine if Trump wins another term... Are some going to hang themselves over true despair or they will just keep whining, yelling and screaming as they have been over the last 4 years? Some talk about trust, institutions and approval process. If there is something I trust the least is unaccountable people, getting paid no matter what. Just like that so useful WHO who declared it a pandemic after lockdown was in force! And these are the ones who we should put our trust in for our lives? I have a ton more trust for 20-30 large and respectable pharmaceutical companies all competing to deliver best product to consumers and who could get sued to the point of extinction if they screw up. Cardboard Fascinating. For me personally, very worried about how Trump is a wannabe autocrat who is moving (successfully) towards making the U.S. more like regimes in North Korea, Russia, Turkey. You don't think its a big deal? And then you've got Biden who is basically a moderate republican/centrist and won't run the country like a failed casino with his kids in charge. I don't get it lol Not sure I have your unfettered trust of the pharmaceutical industry, but yes, I'm also very grateful we have a lot of really smart scientists and companies working on vaccines and treatments. It's amazing. Biden is a moderat republican? :o Did you see his promises to raise trillions of tax and all other things? That seems like a radical left. BTW, Biden's son took a 2bn dollar loan from Bank of China in 2015. Nobody knew what happened later. It could be "forgiven" and pocketed. He needs to explain that because that is wayyyy bigger than his son's Ukraine dealings.
muscleman Posted September 5, 2020 Posted September 5, 2020 Warning to people who are still bullish on the market, I think the COVID situation is improving too fast and asset bubble is brewing too quickly and FED may be stopping the QE soon and I expect the market to build a major top here soon. To me, your comment seems to imply that: A) you view the Fed much more influenced by COVID case numbers than employment numbers. Or perhaps, B) you believe that the COVID case numbers are so strongly correlated to the employment numbers so that they're basically the same thing (i.e. if COVID cases decline to zero, employment will quickly return to high levels). Or, C) the Fed cares a lot about asset bubbles and sees this one, so they'll reduce stimulus even if employment hasn't recovered. Is one of these views basically your position? Because the evidence I've seen seems to suggest that the Fed is likely to be reluctant to reduce stimulus until employment numbers return to levels that cause significant inflation. So, I'm curious if you think A, B, or C above is true, or if there's something else that I don't understand about your reasoning that will help bridge that gap for me. Thanks! B. But my bearish view is based on a large amount of data points I track, not just based on COVID alone. Those data points led me to sell out in mid Feburary and I was feeling like a fool for two more weeks back then. Right now those data points look even more exaggerated than in Feb. However, I've been weighing the two scenarios since last night. Sector rotation vs everything crash. I start to lean against the case of a sector rotation right now. When AAPL, TSLA, SHOP etc go bust, traditional value stocks could have their day. People who bought AAPL and TSLA have never bothered to look at what happened in 2000. Cisco was the equivalent of AAPL and TSLA today. When Cisco went into bust, it went down 90% while traditional value stocks like BRK went up 100% Not a bad call here!! Good call MM Thanks. The sharp drop in unemployment rate today is what I expected due to the fast improving COVID situation, and the market reacted poorly. If this continues, we may have additional surprises from Fed's mid September meeting that the QE is over.
Cigarbutt Posted September 5, 2020 Posted September 5, 2020 ...efforts to try to maintain objectivity in the face of it all. ...determination to remain fair and intellectually honest...the world would be in a much better place. It seems to me you are using the same template. When trying to get accepted into a globally sought after program in 1984-5, part of the requirements was to write an essay, which contained four elements, the first of which was to make the world a better place. And that was before Micheal Jackson's Heal the World. Just like the singer's legacy though, which is troubled, you may want to remember that in 1984, a major non disclosed part of the effort was the strong desire to make money. A lot. But yeah, some of it is idealistically driven: There are people dying If you care enough for the living Make it a better place For you and for me, And the entire human race ----- So, back to people dying and the topic of school re-openings. Most countries (not all) that have re-opened schools have done well, with some measures in place (which is an important variable to account for). Based on some CDC stuff and unpublished data from Canada that was shared last Thursday (the children's hospitals in Montreal were the Canadian epicenters for Covid in children as our area shared many features with neighboring New York). Even reasonably adjusting for the measures in place during the earlier part of 2020, it appears that Covid is very benign in children (likely much more benign than the more typical flu), in terms of hospitalizations, ICU admissions and mortality. It also appears that they don't transmit well and simple basic measures probably bring the contagious risk to extremely low levels. In my area, many schools that have re-opened have reported active cases but most of these cases resulted essentially from outside community spread and not within school spread. It's fascinating that children, as a group, have little to gain from the restrictions but schools got "contaminated" by older champions who decided that it was time to karaoke..So, given the low risk for children and the mixed message on top, an aspect which is little discussed now is the distribution of eventual vaccines to the pediatric population, which is a critical link in reaching some kind of population immunity. Basically, one needs to drive the message that this could be a win-win but those messages don't work well in the populist marketplace. But as we enter the Covid fatigue part, there is hope. Last Wednesday night, i was part of an international webinar dealing (again) with the opioid crisis (i understand you live in BC or perhaps even around Vancouver so i assume that fentanyl means something to you). Interestingly, the presenters and participants were almost all North Americans. For the first time really, i detected a trend suggesting that's it's time to be optimistic, in a contrarian way, for this aspect absent another Dust Bowl episode. This is a typical multi-variable problem (multiple causes along the 0 to 100% personal responsibility ideological spectrum) and one of the problems was the prescriber. So, there are clearly signs that people are coming together and aiming in the right direction (and the numbers are starting to show it), at least for that component. There was even an obviously 'free-market' presenter who, at the conclusion of his talk, thanked the public institutions for a grant allowing to "test" some welcome changes.
RichardGibbons Posted September 5, 2020 Posted September 5, 2020 It seems to me you are using the same template. I try, but you're certainly better at it than I am. I do wonder if today, the divide isn't actually left vs. right but rather reasoned vs. ideological. And that the latter is in the ascent, effectively forcing people to decide which extremist position to take. So, given the low risk for children and the mixed message on top, an aspect which is little discussed now is the distribution of eventual vaccines to the pediatric population, which is a critical link in reaching some kind of population immunity. Basically, one needs to drive the message that this could be a win-win but those messages don't work well in the populist marketplace. Yeah, if feel like one of the things that's lost with this populism is the ability to change your mind when the evidence change. Like, on the face of things, that's clearly the sensible way to view the world, yet almost everyone seems to believe that changing your mind is a sign of weakness or hypocrisy. The populist issue is magnified by the fact that it's very hard for the population as a whole to change directions quickly. Plus, the fact that the public generally believes that their two weeks of reading online articles on a topic puts them roughly at par--or ahead of--people who have literally spent 8 hours a day, 200 days a year, for 20 years researching, analysing, and thinking about a topic. (i understand you live in BC or perhaps even around Vancouver so i assume that fentanyl means something to you). Yeah, I live roughly in the geographic center of Vancouver. Interestingly, the presenters and participants were almost all North Americans. For the first time really, i detected a trend suggesting that's it's time to be optimistic, in a contrarian way, for this aspect absent another Dust Bowl episode. This is a typical multi-variable problem (multiple causes along the 0 to 100% personal responsibility ideological spectrum) and one of the problems was the prescriber. So, there are clearly signs that people are coming together and aiming in the right direction (and the numbers are starting to show it), at least for that component. That's interesting to me that people in the know are starting to view it that way, because I hadn't seen any reasons for optimism in the underlying numbers. It does make sense to me that if knock off causes one by one, it'll have an effect, and that the best way to fix drug addiction is to avoid becoming addicted in the first place.
Casey Posted September 6, 2020 Posted September 6, 2020 "First, it was "wear a mask, its the only vaccine we have!", then its "dont get the vaccine, it will help Trump!". After the election, assuming Biden wins, the vaccine will be the "responsible thing to do"...The narrative is always changing with these chumps." +1 Their narrative is simply crazy. Just imagine if Trump wins another term... Are some going to hang themselves over true despair or they will just keep whining, yelling and screaming as they have been over the last 4 years? Some talk about trust, institutions and approval process. If there is something I trust the least is unaccountable people, getting paid no matter what. Just like that so useful WHO who declared it a pandemic after lockdown was in force! And these are the ones who we should put our trust in for our lives? I have a ton more trust for 20-30 large and respectable pharmaceutical companies all competing to deliver best product to consumers and who could get sued to the point of extinction if they screw up. Cardboard Fascinating. For me personally, very worried about how Trump is a wannabe autocrat who is moving (successfully) towards making the U.S. more like regimes in North Korea, Russia, Turkey. You don't think its a big deal? And then you've got Biden who is basically a moderate republican/centrist and won't run the country like a failed casino with his kids in charge. I don't get it lol Not sure I have your unfettered trust of the pharmaceutical industry, but yes, I'm also very grateful we have a lot of really smart scientists and companies working on vaccines and treatments. It's amazing. Biden is a moderat republican? :o Did you see his promises to raise trillions of tax and all other things? That seems like a radical left. BTW, Biden's son took a 2bn dollar loan from Bank of China in 2015. Nobody knew what happened later. It could be "forgiven" and pocketed. He needs to explain that because that is wayyyy bigger than his son's Ukraine dealings. Feel free to ignore my "moderate republican" language if it helps get the main gist. IMO Biden's more of a centrist than plenty of Democrats (take Bernie or Warren), and will basically act like a sane person as President. Don't think he'd be functionally that different over 4 years than someone like Romney, Bush, Obama. re: taxes. Biden's proposed tax changes are $4 Trillion Over 10 Years, ~400 billion a year. Maybe high if he does the whole thing. Trump tax cut is like 1.8 trillion over 10 years from google. So Biden proposal fills that back in and adds an increase of similar size. Not really seeing what is radical about these levels up or down, but okay yeah taxes would go up. For me personally, very worried about how Trump is a wannabe autocrat who is moving (successfully) towards making the U.S. more like regimes in North Korea, Russia, Turkey. Any comment on this part? You don't think its a big deal?
Castanza Posted September 6, 2020 Posted September 6, 2020 "First, it was "wear a mask, its the only vaccine we have!", then its "dont get the vaccine, it will help Trump!". After the election, assuming Biden wins, the vaccine will be the "responsible thing to do"...The narrative is always changing with these chumps." +1 Their narrative is simply crazy. Just imagine if Trump wins another term... Are some going to hang themselves over true despair or they will just keep whining, yelling and screaming as they have been over the last 4 years? Some talk about trust, institutions and approval process. If there is something I trust the least is unaccountable people, getting paid no matter what. Just like that so useful WHO who declared it a pandemic after lockdown was in force! And these are the ones who we should put our trust in for our lives? I have a ton more trust for 20-30 large and respectable pharmaceutical companies all competing to deliver best product to consumers and who could get sued to the point of extinction if they screw up. Cardboard Fascinating. For me personally, very worried about how Trump is a wannabe autocrat who is moving (successfully) towards making the U.S. more like regimes in North Korea, Russia, Turkey. You don't think its a big deal? And then you've got Biden who is basically a moderate republican/centrist and won't run the country like a failed casino with his kids in charge. I don't get it lol Not sure I have your unfettered trust of the pharmaceutical industry, but yes, I'm also very grateful we have a lot of really smart scientists and companies working on vaccines and treatments. It's amazing. Biden is a moderat republican? :o Did you see his promises to raise trillions of tax and all other things? That seems like a radical left. BTW, Biden's son took a 2bn dollar loan from Bank of China in 2015. Nobody knew what happened later. It could be "forgiven" and pocketed. He needs to explain that because that is wayyyy bigger than his son's Ukraine dealings. Feel free to ignore my "moderate republican" language if it helps get the main gist. IMO Biden's more of a centrist than plenty of Democrats (take Bernie or Warren), and will basically act like a sane person as President. Don't think he'd be functionally that different over 4 years than someone like Romney, Bush, Obama. re: taxes. Biden's proposed tax changes are $4 Trillion Over 10 Years, ~400 billion a year. Maybe high if he does the whole thing. Trump tax cut is like 1.8 trillion over 10 years from google. So Biden proposal fills that back in and adds an increase of similar size. Not really seeing what is radical about these levels up or down, but okay yeah taxes would go up. For me personally, very worried about how Trump is a wannabe autocrat who is moving (successfully) towards making the U.S. more like regimes in North Korea, Russia, Turkey. Any comment on this part? You don't think its a big deal? I commented on it in the politics section.
Spekulatius Posted September 6, 2020 Posted September 6, 2020 Looks like another community outbreak in Chelsea, MA during the last few weeks. Almost 6% positivity rate - 180 cases. So much for the herd immunity crowd @15% - Chelsea had a mid thirties antibody positivity rate in a late April study (not the best study, but numbers should be correct ballpark) and Antibody positivity should be higher now. My own small town had zero cases since June - 10 cases total since outbreak with 600 tests. Population roughly 3400 people. Similar with surrounding towns. I don’t think there is any chance of Heard- immunity there. Antibody positivity rate here would be below 5% for sure, most likely much lower. https://www.boston.com/news/coronavirus/2020/09/02/latest-massachusetts-city-town-coronavirus-data
DocSnowball Posted September 6, 2020 Posted September 6, 2020 Just saw these new projections from the IHME, very sobering. IDK what data inputs they use to create these projections - they have been within 1 standard deviation to date. It's quite bothersome, along with the current <50% universal mask use data which highlights so many of these infections are preventable. The cases and deaths seem to go up come November, and keep climbing through the rest of the year. A lot will rest on having an effective vaccine, not to change these statistics but to eventually make the next wave come down. If there were no vaccine in sight, one could make a case for going on with your life unhinged. But with a vaccine around the corner in 3-6 months, it seems to me a travesty if so many deaths happen. What do you think of this? https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
LC Posted September 7, 2020 Posted September 7, 2020 Projecting higher daily deaths come November versus the peak of April? I think that would require a lot of explaining.
DocSnowball Posted September 7, 2020 Posted September 7, 2020 Projecting higher daily deaths come November versus the peak of April? I think that would require a lot of explaining. From the estimation updates page: http://www.healthdata.org/covid/estimation-updates-global Trends in key drivers Countries still maintaining more than three social distancing mandates are concentrated in Central America, South America, and select countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Only one mandate is in place many US states and parts of Europe. Global mobility as measured through cellphone app use on Android and iOS phones dropped to a low of 50% below pre-COVID-19 baseline in late March and early April and increased steadily to 20% below baseline in late June. Since that date, global mobility has remained relatively constant around 20% below baseline. Reductions greater than 40% are seen in several countries in Latin America, and in India. According to surveys of Facebook users and other cellphone surveys, global mask use has been stable at around 60% since mid-April. High reported levels of mask use are seen in all of Latin America, southern Africa, southern Europe, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, with the exceptions of Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia. Global testing per capita has risen steadily from very low levels in March to over 50 per 100,000. Rates range from less than 10 per 100,000 in sub-Saharan Africa to over 350 per 100,000 in some US states and parts of Europe. Forecasts We extended our forecasts to January 1. We expect daily global deaths to reach nearly 30,000 a day in December. The number of cumulative deaths expected by January 1 is 2.8 million; this is 1.9 million deaths from now until the end of the year. If a herd immunity strategy is pursued – namely no further government intervention is taken from now to January 1 – then the death toll could increase to 4 million deaths by the end of the year. Compared to the reference scenario, this would be 1.2 million more deaths from now to the end of the year. Increasing mask use remains an extraordinary opportunity for the world. Increasing mask use to the levels seen in Singapore would decrease the cumulative death toll to 2.0 million, or 770,000 lives saved compared to the reference scenario. This would be a 27% reduction in the deaths expected from now until the end of the year. Forecasts for some countries are lower than in our August 27 estimates. This reflects the fact that our estimates continue to reflect fluctuations in actual data on COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Some locations are not included in our model because their epidemics affect too few people to produce a reliable projection. For example, Vietnam and several provinces of China do not meet the threshold for projections.
DocSnowball Posted September 7, 2020 Posted September 7, 2020 Lot more explanations of estimation update in the Americas here: http://www.healthdata.org/covid/estimation-updates-paho http://www.healthdata.org/covid/estimation-updates-united-states They note that they have not adjusted the IFR/CFR lower yet despite availability of new therapeutics. Apologies for the multiple posts.
LC Posted September 7, 2020 Posted September 7, 2020 You've quoted global model assumptions. The following is what is driving their US based forecast: We expect the daily death rate in the United States, because of seasonality and declining vigilance of the public, to reach nearly 3,000 a day in December. Cumulative deaths expected by January 1 are 410,000; this is 225,000 deaths from now until the end of the year. Emphasis mine. Seasonality I do not have insight on. Public vigilance we can estimate. First, we can see that US population has become more mobile post-April: http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/Projects/COVID/briefing_US_09.03.2020_Page_10.png From -50% average mobility, to only-20% average mobility rates. Second, we can see that US mask-wearing has stabilized around 42.5%: http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/Projects/COVID/briefing_US_09.03.2020_Page_11.png The question is this. Mobility and mask wearing have both dramatically increased after April 2020. Daily COVID deaths have drastically decreased over that timeframe. So in terms of the virus, one of these two factors is driving DOWN deaths. Yet if you look at their forecasts of daily deaths: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=daily-deaths&tab=trend You see that the universal (95%) mask-wearing forecast essentially maintains the current mortality rate. So does increased mask-wearing (as we saw in May->Aug) decrease mortality rate, or not? Or is the seasonality component assumed to be so significant that even with 95% mask usage, we see no reduction in deaths? The same holds true of mobility. Mobility increased in the Mar->Aug period, but deaths per day decreased significantly. Again, if they assume "declining vigilance" which I presume indicates higher mobility, will that further lead to decreased mortality rates? Or not? Or are these two factors insignificant? If so, why not express that seasonality is the main component here. And furthermore, why not provide justification to support such a drastic forecast driven solely by seasonality - for which we have zero evidence? Their model is not intuitive, which is usually a sign it may not be a good model. For what it's worth (nil) I presume the virus will behave like other flu-viruses, with the fall/winter months being worse. Also for what it's worth (lessthannil), the flu appears to be 15-20% more severe based on seasonality: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/6/6f/CDC-influenza-pneumonia-deaths-2015-01-10.gif Which would indicate around 1,200 deaths-per-day if we translate that to COVID-19. The question is, "how much worse" and "how effective will public awareness and therapeutics be"
rkbabang Posted September 8, 2020 Posted September 8, 2020 "The hypothesis provides a model that explains many aspects of Covid-19, including some of its most bizarre symptoms. It also suggests 10-plus potential treatments, many of which are already FDA approved. Jacobson’s group published their results in a paper in the journal eLife in early July." https://elemental.medium.com/a-supercomputer-analyzed-covid-19-and-an-interesting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63
patience_and_focus Posted September 9, 2020 Posted September 9, 2020 AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine study put on hold due to suspected adverse reaction in participant in the U.K. https://www.statnews.com/2020/09/08/astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-study-put-on-hold-due-to-suspected-adverse-reaction-in-participant-in-the-u-k/
Dalal.Holdings Posted September 9, 2020 Posted September 9, 2020 Turns out one major world leader knew how deadly the virus was back in Feb (recorded on tape) while publicly downplaying it (and politicizing masks and holding indoor rallies, of course!): https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/bob-woodward-rage-book-trump/2020/09/09/0368fe3c-efd2-11ea-b4bc-3a2098fc73d4_story.html “Like the Flu!” Look forward to the usual MAGA defense playbook: With Woodward getting Trump on tape, MAGA World is about to move quickly from their Anonymous Sources Don’t Count routine to the tried-and-true Whatever, This Doesn’t Matter shtick.
Gregmal Posted September 9, 2020 Posted September 9, 2020 Thanks doc! Busy day at the hospital today?
Dalal.Holdings Posted September 9, 2020 Posted September 9, 2020 What I always picture from “often wrong, never in doubt” ;D
Dalal.Holdings Posted September 9, 2020 Posted September 9, 2020 Lots more clowning where that came from: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-09/trump-told-woodward-he-intentionally-downplayed-virus-risks?srnd=premium “I wanted to always play it down, I still like playing it down, because I don’t want to create a panic,” Trump told Woodward, the author and associate editor for the Washington Post, on March 19 in one of a series of interviews for his book, “Rage,” due for publication this month. In public, meanwhile, he favorably compared coronavirus and the flu, noting that there were at the time many more flu deaths in the U.S. Downplaying mask wearing, comparing it to the Flu, and holding indoor rallies surely did not allow it to spread & kill more in the U.S. than it should have (RIP Herman Cain). Good thing we had fellow board members who parroted the claims too! They served their master well.
StubbleJumper Posted September 9, 2020 Posted September 9, 2020 Slow day at the hospital I guess. Yeah, some people are focussed on politics. Strangely, nobody on this forum is talking about France. Yesterday, France had 6,500 new cases for a country of ~65 million people. Yesterday the United States had 29k new cases for a population of ~325m people. Over the past week, looks like France took over the lead for the most significant covid outbreak amongst developed countries, relative to its population? Things seem pretty manageable in Sweden these days... So, shall we engage in a series of venomous statements about President Macron, now that France is "winning?" Is this MFGA? SJ
Spekulatius Posted September 9, 2020 Posted September 9, 2020 As predicted, we have finally caught up on Italy in terms of COVID-19 death normalized over population. I am comparing country to country here: I guess Italy’s government isn’t quite as incompetent as thought. They got hit very hard early on, but then managed to contain it. We didn’t.
Dalal.Holdings Posted September 9, 2020 Posted September 9, 2020 As predicted, we have finally caught up on Italy in terms of COVID-19 death normalized over population. I am comparing country to country here: I guess Italy’s government isn’t quite as incompetent as thought. They got hit very hard early on, but then managed to contain it. We didn’t. To add: What's worse--the same number of deaths over a long period of time late in 2020 (USA) or a brief period of time early in 2020 (Italy)? One was far more preventable & controllable than the other. And that's before considering the fact that one of the two had remdesevir, ICU techniques (proning, etc), steroids, warm weather, time to prepare and distance/wear masks, prep ICU beds, expand capacity, and lots more advancements to fight covid... We are clearly learning who the "suckers" and "losers" in this whole process were--those who listened to and supported the sociopathic leader. No worries--this is how he rolls--he's always needed a pile of "suckers" (his words) to make it in life. He uses his bag of tricks to get folks to act against their own self interest and for his own gain. And it works on many!
Gregmal Posted September 9, 2020 Posted September 9, 2020 Slow day at the hospital I guess. Yeah, some people are focussed on politics. Strangely, nobody on this forum is talking about France. Yesterday, France had 6,500 new cases for a country of ~65 million people. Yesterday the United States had 29k new cases for a population of ~325m people. Over the past week, looks like France took over the lead for the most significant covid outbreak amongst developed countries, relative to its population? Things seem pretty manageable in Sweden these days... So, shall we engage in a series of venomous statements about President Macron, now that France is "winning?" Is this MFGA? SJ Oh man. Prepare to be viciously attacked like the dozens of others who came before you; that dared present anything contrary to the narrative of the guy who got snubbed for debate team captain in high skool. Now back to crying about Trump. I heard yet another person who dislikes him is writing a book or prepared to make a statement about how much he sucks! Libtards....go crazy!
Cigarbutt Posted September 9, 2020 Posted September 9, 2020 Slow day at the hospital I guess. Yeah, some people are focussed on politics. Strangely, nobody on this forum is talking about France. Yesterday, France had 6,500 new cases for a country of ~65 million people. Yesterday the United States had 29k new cases for a population of ~325m people. Over the past week, looks like France took over the lead for the most significant covid outbreak amongst developed countries, relative to its population? Things seem pretty manageable in Sweden these days... So, shall we engage in a series of venomous statements about President Macron, now that France is "winning?" Is this MFGA? SJ Oh man. Prepare to be viciously attacked like the dozens of others who came before you; that dared present anything contrary to the narrative of the guy who got snubbed for debate team captain in high skool. Now back to crying about Trump. I heard yet another person who dislikes him is writing a book or prepared to make a statement about how much he sucks! Libtards....go crazy! What is happening in Europe is interesting. Again multiple factors involved but yes politics plays a role. There is significant resurgence in the aggregate in the European Union but the average hides wide disparities. There appears to be some inverse correlation between the extent of the initial wave (eg Sweden and some others) and what is happening now but 'performance' with the first wave is also correlated. There is more testing now but the positivity rate is also going up. An argument could be made that it's better to spread the spread over time but there may be a fatigue component. Time will also reveal more about the seasonal impact.
StubbleJumper Posted September 9, 2020 Posted September 9, 2020 As predicted, we have finally caught up on Italy in terms of COVID-19 death normalized over population. I am comparing country to country here: I guess Italy’s government isn’t quite as incompetent as thought. They got hit very hard early on, but then managed to contain it. We didn’t. Things have gone well in Italy over the summer. But, we are in what, the 3rd inning of this ball game? Frankly, with covid, it's astounding how quickly things change, for the better and for the worse. Take a look at Sweden's numbers in mid-June and France's. Or for that matter, look at the US numbers from 2 months ago. SJ
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