Coronavirus

[Guest cherzeca]

immunity testing is important imo.  I lived in our NYC apartment until 3/16 when we hightailed it to our country house. we used the subway, shopped in stores, and attended a large gathering indoors on 3/14...last weekend you could do this.  I also had a sore throat in January which I got over, which left something of a frog in my throat, which has slowly dissipated.  interestingly, I asked for a z-pack scrip which may have helped, as it is a senolytic which helps eliminate senescent cells upon which the virus "feeds".  I feel great. there are many people like me who would like to know if they can expand their social engagement, and it is in society's interest for people like me to do so at the earliest possible date.

[patience_and_focus]

immunity testing is important imo.  I lived in our NYC apartment until 3/16 when we hightailed it to our country house. we used the subway, shopped in stores, and attended a large gathering indoors on 3/14...last weekend you could do this.  I also had a sore throat in January which I got over, which left something of a frog in my throat, which has slowly dissipated.  interestingly, I asked for a z-pack scrip which may have helped, as it is a senolytic which helps eliminate senescent cells upon which the virus "feeds".  I feel great. there are many people like me who would like to know if they can expand their social engagement, and it is in society's interest for people like me to do so at the earliest possible date.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/19/us/coronavirus-antibody-tests.html

 

Testing for serological tests for antibodies is one of the hardest things to get right, especially with now touted finger prick (think Theranos). These are "analog" tests (as opposed to digital PCR tests for testing viral RNA to determine positive for SAR-Cov2). I have worked in this space for 15 years now and it is pretty clear that most people do not realize how difficult protein measurements are as opposed to DNA/RNA measurements. If not done right, they will have unacceptable false positive and negative rates. The article above clearly points to that risk. Given that at a lot of testing kits and materials in US are coming from China and not being vetted, I can only imagine what kind of misinformation about antibodies is being given out. Quotes -

 

"The Food and Drug Administration has allowed about 90 companies, many based in China, to sell tests that have not gotten government vetting, saying the pandemic warrants an urgent response. But the agency has since warned that some of those businesses are making false claims about their products; health officials, like their counterparts overseas, have found others deeply flawed."

 

"For example, Britain recently said the millions of rapid tests it had ordered from China were not sensitive enough to detect antibodies except in people who were severely ill. In Spain, the testing push turned into a fiasco last month after the initial batch of kits it received had an accuracy of 30 percent, rather than the advertised 80 percent. In Italy, local officials have begun testing even before national authorities have validated the tests."

 

 

[Spekulatius]

immunity testing is important imo.  I lived in our NYC apartment until 3/16 when we hightailed it to our country house. we used the subway, shopped in stores, and attended a large gathering indoors on 3/14...last weekend you could do this.  I also had a sore throat in January which I got over, which left something of a frog in my throat, which has slowly dissipated.  interestingly, I asked for a z-pack scrip which may have helped, as it is a senolytic which helps eliminate senescent cells upon which the virus "feeds".  I feel great. there are many people like me who would like to know if they can expand their social engagement, and it is in society's interest for people like me to do so at the earliest possible date.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/19/us/coronavirus-antibody-tests.html

 

Testing for serological tests for antibodies is one of the hardest things to get right, especially with now touted finger prick (think Theranos). These are "analog" tests (as opposed to digital PCR tests for testing viral RNA to determine positive for SAR-Cov2). I have worked in this space for 15 years now and it is pretty clear that most people do not realize how difficult protein measurements are as opposed to DNA/RNA measurements. If not done right, they will have unacceptable false positive and negative rates. The article above clearly points to that risk. Given that at a lot of testing kits and materials in US are coming from China and not being vetted, I can only imagine what kind of misinformation about antibodies is being given out. Quotes -

 

"The Food and Drug Administration has allowed about 90 companies, many based in China, to sell tests that have not gotten government vetting, saying the pandemic warrants an urgent response. But the agency has since warned that some of those businesses are making false claims about their products; health officials, like their counterparts overseas, have found others deeply flawed."

 

"For example, Britain recently said the millions of rapid tests it had ordered from China were not sensitive enough to detect antibodies except in people who were severely ill. In Spain, the testing push turned into a fiasco last month after the initial batch of kits it received had an accuracy of 30 percent, rather than the advertised 80 percent. In Italy, local officials have begun testing even before national authorities have validated the tests."

 

Yea, that’s one issue. Then there is a the issue if presence of antibodies constitutes immunity.

[Spekulatius]

This is an article about the increased Chinese influence on the WHO (in German):

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/coronavirus-who-weltkrankheitsorganisation-a-29c74432-aea1-4f9a-b1ff-fcc4bb43cc4e

 

Seems like some critique here is justified. Ousting some of WHO’s leadership would be a better way than withholding funding right now, imo.

[Dalal.Holdings]

immunity testing is important imo.  I lived in our NYC apartment until 3/16 when we hightailed it to our country house. we used the subway, shopped in stores, and attended a large gathering indoors on 3/14...last weekend you could do this.  I also had a sore throat in January which I got over, which left something of a frog in my throat, which has slowly dissipated.  interestingly, I asked for a z-pack scrip which may have helped, as it is a senolytic which helps eliminate senescent cells upon which the virus "feeds".  I feel great. there are many people like me who would like to know if they can expand their social engagement, and it is in society's interest for people like me to do so at the earliest possible date.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/19/us/coronavirus-antibody-tests.html

 

Testing for serological tests for antibodies is one of the hardest things to get right, especially with now touted finger prick (think Theranos). These are "analog" tests (as opposed to digital PCR tests for testing viral RNA to determine positive for SAR-Cov2). I have worked in this space for 15 years now and it is pretty clear that most people do not realize how difficult protein measurements are as opposed to DNA/RNA measurements. If not done right, they will have unacceptable false positive and negative rates. The article above clearly points to that risk. Given that at a lot of testing kits and materials in US are coming from China and not being vetted, I can only imagine what kind of misinformation about antibodies is being given out. Quotes -

 

"The Food and Drug Administration has allowed about 90 companies, many based in China, to sell tests that have not gotten government vetting, saying the pandemic warrants an urgent response. But the agency has since warned that some of those businesses are making false claims about their products; health officials, like their counterparts overseas, have found others deeply flawed."

 

"For example, Britain recently said the millions of rapid tests it had ordered from China were not sensitive enough to detect antibodies except in people who were severely ill. In Spain, the testing push turned into a fiasco last month after the initial batch of kits it received had an accuracy of 30 percent, rather than the advertised 80 percent. In Italy, local officials have begun testing even before national authorities have validated the tests."

 

Yea, that’s one issue. Then there is a the issue if presence of antibodies constitutes immunity.

 

Absolutely--and we should note that coronaviruses are not new. Many cause the common cold, so many individuals may already have antibodies to coronavirus proteins that do not confer immunity to covid-19. You have to somehow make sure the antibodies you are testing for are specific to covid-19 and not the coronaviruses that cause run-of-the-mill common cold...

 

The propensity for false positives with COVID-19 antibody testing is high and in medical statistics, it is well known (among those trained in this, but not doctors in general) that via Bayesian statistics positive predictive value (if a test is positive, you have the illness) is proportional to disease prevalence (contrast this with sensitivity and specificity which do not change with prevalence).

 

If a disease is rare (as we know covid is thus far), then positive predictive value will be low and so you will have a large number of false positives, especially with an antibody test that is prone to false positives. This is one of many criticisms of the Stanford study.

 

More info for those who have intellectual curiosity:

https://online.stat.psu.edu/stat507/node/71/

[Viking]

Here is an update on one industry that is in deep shit. Lots more just like them. But don’t worry, the Fed is printing money and governments are spending like never before... so it doesn’t matter :-)

 

The Coronavirus Doesn’t Care When Sports Come Back: The prolonged shutdown of the sports world is taking a huge financial toll. And comeback plans all have a pesky hurdle — public health.

- https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/19/sports/coronavirus-sports-economy.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

A Major League Baseball season to be played entirely in the Arizona desert without fans, and with teams isolating themselves from the outside world.

 

The N.B.A. taking over a hotel on the Las Vegas Strip so its stars can dine and dunk in their own bubble — but only after the league gets access to instant coronavirus tests.

 

Mixed-martial-arts fights live on TV from a private island … somewhere.

 

More than a month into the coronavirus shutdown, the American sports industrial complex is getting creative, or perhaps desperate, searching for a moonshot that might bring professional athletics back to a nation largely cooped up at home and suffering from collective cabin fever.

 

Fans are clamoring for something, anything, to distract from the pandemic and restore sports to the rhythm of American life; even Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the presidential adviser on infectious diseases, recently mused about seeing the Washington Nationals defend their World Series title.

 

Meanwhile, owners, executives and athletes — and all the related businesses and workers who depend on them — are increasingly worried about the economic damage from this prolonged, inescapable off-season.

 

But the hurdles to any return are numerous, and they start with securing access to tests for the virus and persuading players and officials to agree to strict confinement, among other conditions.

 

Over the past two decades, the business of sports in the United States has ballooned into a chunk of the economy that generates well over $71 billion annually and employs tens of thousands of people, from superstar athletes to hot dog vendors. But all of that has ground to an abrupt halt. The financial losses climb every day, as games go unplayed and are absent from television, and entire seasons could be canceled.

[Gregmal]

On the flip side, we ve had plenty of lengthy lockouts where full or partial seasons were lost. It always comes back.

[minten]

Base case: constant caseload, rolling lockdowns, 1% of the world population dies (80M) or whatever the true death rate is. Bad for the economy also.

 

I don't want to come across as cynical or anything (and I'm definitely not making any immoral suggestions), but if you look at the profile of that 1% I'm not so sure that would be bad for the economy as a whole at all.

[Liberty]

Rhonda Patrick (research scientist) podcast Q&A on various COVID19-related stuff:

 

https://www.foundmyfitness.com/episodes/covid-19-episode-1

[Guest cherzeca]

immunity testing is important imo.  I lived in our NYC apartment until 3/16 when we hightailed it to our country house. we used the subway, shopped in stores, and attended a large gathering indoors on 3/14...last weekend you could do this.  I also had a sore throat in January which I got over, which left something of a frog in my throat, which has slowly dissipated.  interestingly, I asked for a z-pack scrip which may have helped, as it is a senolytic which helps eliminate senescent cells upon which the virus "feeds".  I feel great. there are many people like me who would like to know if they can expand their social engagement, and it is in society's interest for people like me to do so at the earliest possible date.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/19/us/coronavirus-antibody-tests.html

 

Testing for serological tests for antibodies is one of the hardest things to get right, especially with now touted finger prick (think Theranos). These are "analog" tests (as opposed to digital PCR tests for testing viral RNA to determine positive for SAR-Cov2). I have worked in this space for 15 years now and it is pretty clear that most people do not realize how difficult protein measurements are as opposed to DNA/RNA measurements. If not done right, they will have unacceptable false positive and negative rates. The article above clearly points to that risk. Given that at a lot of testing kits and materials in US are coming from China and not being vetted, I can only imagine what kind of misinformation about antibodies is being given out. Quotes -

 

"The Food and Drug Administration has allowed about 90 companies, many based in China, to sell tests that have not gotten government vetting, saying the pandemic warrants an urgent response. But the agency has since warned that some of those businesses are making false claims about their products; health officials, like their counterparts overseas, have found others deeply flawed."

 

"For example, Britain recently said the millions of rapid tests it had ordered from China were not sensitive enough to detect antibodies except in people who were severely ill. In Spain, the testing push turned into a fiasco last month after the initial batch of kits it received had an accuracy of 30 percent, rather than the advertised 80 percent. In Italy, local officials have begun testing even before national authorities have validated the tests."

 

Yea, that’s one issue. Then there is a the issue if presence of antibodies constitutes immunity.

 

I'll take "creeping" immunity...meaning better defended against covid than without antibodies.  as my doctor as told me, after enough tick bites, your antibody test becomes so strong that doxycycline may no longer be indicated.

[Viking]

On the flip side, we ve had plenty of lengthy lockouts where full or partial seasons were lost. It always comes back.

 

We have never had a situation where NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, PGA, NCAA, World Soccer etc were all shuttered at the same time for an indefinite period of time: minimum 6 months and more likely 12 months or longer.

 

This is just one of many industries facing the exact same reality. My basic point is all of these closures have to add up to some meaningful economic contraction that will likely last a year (until a vaccine is ready). Financial markets are off to the races higher and likely pricing in a V shape recovery. We will see :-)

[Gregmal]

On the flip side, we ve had plenty of lengthy lockouts where full or partial seasons were lost. It always comes back.

 

We have never had a situation where NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, PGA, NCAA, World Soccer etc were all shuttered at the same time for an indefinite period of time: minimum 6 months and more likely 12 months or longer.

 

This is just one of many industries facing the exact same reality. My basic point is all of these closures have to add up to some meaningful economic contraction that will likely last a year (until a vaccine is ready). Financial markets are off to the races higher and likely pricing in a V shape recovery. We will see :-)

 

I agree. I dont care for the enthusiastic degree to which we've already recovered. I just have a hard time seeing basic fundamental human behavior being broken so easily. Look at the near riots going on in some places because folks want to go out. Granted, sports are different. People will definitely still go, but do owners take on the liability of opening too soon?

[cobafdek]

Bill Maher, and the whole Trump-is-a-War-Criminal-He-did-Nothing-in-February crowd, get taken to the cleaners by Congressman Dan Crenshaw:

 

[ERICOPOLY]

Testing nationwide is currently at 150,000 per day, they said, adding that "If we can't be doing at least 500,000 tests a day by May 1, it is hard to see any way we can remain open."

President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence say there is ample testing capacity for states to begin the first phase.

 

But Gov. Ralph Northam of Maryland called the assertion "delusional" and said his state doesn't even have sufficient swabs to conduct testing.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/19/health/us-coronavirus-sunday/index.html

[Guest]

Bill Maher, and the whole Trump-is-a-War-Criminal-He-did-Nothing-in-February crowd, get taken to the cleaners by Congressman Dan Crenshaw:

 

 

That was a legit smackdown. Dang.

[matts]

live R number estimates by states.

 

https://rt.live/

 

 

It was done by one of the Instagram co-founders. Interesting visualization of the changes. I'm not nearly smart enough to understand whether they are accurate.

 

 

[LongHaul]

Rhonda Patrick (research scientist) podcast Q&A on various COVID19-related stuff:

 

https://www.foundmyfitness.com/episodes/covid-19-episode-1

Nice find Liberty.  Good thing I am a REDNECK!

 

Vitamin D and respiratory tract infectionsVitamin D is a steroid hormone. It is available in small quantities in food, but the primary source is via endogenous synthesis. This process occurs in a stepwise manner that starts in the skin following exposure to ultraviolet light and continues in the liver and kidneys, where the vitamin's active hormone form is made. Since ultraviolet light is required for vitamin D synthesis, reduced exposure to the sun or having dark-colored skin impairs vitamin D production. Approximately 70 percent of people living in the United States are vitamin D insufficient and ~30 percent are deficient.Robust evidence suggests that vitamin D is protective against respiratory tract infections. Data from 25 randomized controlled trials from around the world demonstrate that daily or weekly supplementation of vitamin D reduced the risk of acute respiratory infection by more than 50 percent in people with low baseline vitamin D levels. People with higher baseline vitamin D levels also benefited, although the effect was more modest, with only a 10 percent risk reduction. Vitamin D and the renin-angiotensin-systemhttps://www.foundmyfitness.com/episodes/covid-19-episode-1  

[Liberty]

Rhonda Patrick (research scientist) podcast Q&A on various COVID19-related stuff:

 

https://www.foundmyfitness.com/episodes/covid-19-episode-1

Nice find Liberty.  Good thing I am a REDNECK!

 

Vitamin D and respiratory tract infectionsVitamin D is a steroid hormone. It is available in small quantities in food, but the primary source is via endogenous synthesis. This process occurs in a stepwise manner that starts in the skin following exposure to ultraviolet light and continues in the liver and kidneys, where the vitamin's active hormone form is made. Since ultraviolet light is required for vitamin D synthesis, reduced exposure to the sun or having dark-colored skin impairs vitamin D production. Approximately 70 percent of people living in the United States are vitamin D insufficient and ~30 percent are deficient.Robust evidence suggests that vitamin D is protective against respiratory tract infections. Data from 25 randomized controlled trials from around the world demonstrate that daily or weekly supplementation of vitamin D reduced the risk of acute respiratory infection by more than 50 percent in people with low baseline vitamin D levels. People with higher baseline vitamin D levels also benefited, although the effect was more modest, with only a 10 percent risk reduction. Vitamin D and the renin-angiotensin-systemhttps://www.foundmyfitness.com/episodes/covid-19-episode-1 

 

I've been taking 5,000-8,000 UIs daily for a long time (10+ years), and lately I've been taking 10,000 UI/day. Make sure you take gelcaps and not dry tablets, it's fat soluble and much better absorbed that way. Also, with a big meal, better absorption there too.

[LongHaul]

South Korea has done an incredible job of "killing" the Virus.  They had ~ 8 new cases yesterday (source worldometer https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/).

The number of cases in South Korea spiked in Feb 2020 and then were down drastically by March 9.

South Korea had social distancing and distributed masks to all its citizens very early.

 

I give them an A+ for effectiveness.

 

Trump - could have seen this and just copied them for a national response. 

He did not and as a result I give him a C- because we have tons more cases and deaths.   

BTW I would also give almost all the other western governments very low marks.  C+ to B- ish.

 

Trump is still not wearing a mask and has not distributed them or suggested people wear them to my knowledge. 

 

Trump's wiring from birth is flawed.  He is a narcissist, egomaniac, delusional, in denial, etc and he will never change. 

He is like the scorpion in the old tale about the frog crossing the river.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[LongHaul]

Rhonda Patrick (research scientist) podcast Q&A on various COVID19-related stuff:

 

https://www.foundmyfitness.com/episodes/covid-19-episode-1

Nice find Liberty.  Good thing I am a REDNECK!

 

Vitamin D and respiratory tract infectionsVitamin D is a steroid hormone. It is available in small quantities in food, but the primary source is via endogenous synthesis. This process occurs in a stepwise manner that starts in the skin following exposure to ultraviolet light and continues in the liver and kidneys, where the vitamin's active hormone form is made. Since ultraviolet light is required for vitamin D synthesis, reduced exposure to the sun or having dark-colored skin impairs vitamin D production. Approximately 70 percent of people living in the United States are vitamin D insufficient and ~30 percent are deficient.Robust evidence suggests that vitamin D is protective against respiratory tract infections. Data from 25 randomized controlled trials from around the world demonstrate that daily or weekly supplementation of vitamin D reduced the risk of acute respiratory infection by more than 50 percent in people with low baseline vitamin D levels. People with higher baseline vitamin D levels also benefited, although the effect was more modest, with only a 10 percent risk reduction. Vitamin D and the renin-angiotensin-systemhttps://www.foundmyfitness.com/episodes/covid-19-episode-1 

 

I've been taking 5,000-8,000 UIs daily for a long time (10+ years), and lately I've been taking 10,000 UI/day. Make sure you take gelcaps and not dry tablets, it's fat soluble and much better absorbed that way. Also, with a big meal, better absorption there too.

 

ok thx.  FYI - my wife got a shot for Vitamin D  (I don't remember the dosage) and it really hurt her knees.  The dosage was way too much so be careful with dosage. 

 

 

 

[Guest cherzeca]

Rhonda Patrick (research scientist) podcast Q&A on various COVID19-related stuff:

 

https://www.foundmyfitness.com/episodes/covid-19-episode-1

Nice find Liberty.  Good thing I am a REDNECK!

 

Vitamin D and respiratory tract infectionsVitamin D is a steroid hormone. It is available in small quantities in food, but the primary source is via endogenous synthesis. This process occurs in a stepwise manner that starts in the skin following exposure to ultraviolet light and continues in the liver and kidneys, where the vitamin's active hormone form is made. Since ultraviolet light is required for vitamin D synthesis, reduced exposure to the sun or having dark-colored skin impairs vitamin D production. Approximately 70 percent of people living in the United States are vitamin D insufficient and ~30 percent are deficient.Robust evidence suggests that vitamin D is protective against respiratory tract infections. Data from 25 randomized controlled trials from around the world demonstrate that daily or weekly supplementation of vitamin D reduced the risk of acute respiratory infection by more than 50 percent in people with low baseline vitamin D levels. People with higher baseline vitamin D levels also benefited, although the effect was more modest, with only a 10 percent risk reduction. Vitamin D and the renin-angiotensin-systemhttps://www.foundmyfitness.com/episodes/covid-19-episode-1 

 

I've been taking 5,000-8,000 UIs daily for a long time (10+ years), and lately I've been taking 10,000 UI/day. Make sure you take gelcaps and not dry tablets, it's fat soluble and much better absorbed that way. Also, with a big meal, better absorption there too.

 

ok thx.  FYI - my wife got a shot for Vitamin D  (I don't remember the dosage) and it really hurt her knees.  The dosage was way too much so be careful with dosage.

 

I spend a whole lot of time outside in the sun, as much as I can, shirtless in summer when gardening etc.  and yes I go to have my skin checked twice a year by dermatologist.  it has never been clear to me that the body uses vitamin d supplements as effectively as body generated...and that study wont be done because there is no money in it for any pharma...

[opihiman2]

Haven't been following this  thread, so don't know if this has been posted.  But, COVID19 has now killed more people in the U.S. than the flu did in the entire 2018-2019 year.  And that's including the shutdowns this entire month or so.  So much for the virus being just another flu.

[LC]

For context, the 2017-18 flu deaths in US were aprox 61,000 (worst year of the past decade). Current COVID deaths are 41,000.

[Cigarbutt]

In my area (Canada), about 75% of people who died were living in chronic care institutions. Half of these were living in public institutions (more frail versus other half) where pre-CV statistics showed the following:

risk of dying after admission: 20% in 3 months    45% in a year

The present situation will force a re-evaluation of previous decisions related to capital allocation (flu, chronic care) etc

For CV, it looks like the following factors to take into account (individual risk, population risk) for cost effective measures are: age and comorbidity, proximity, promiscuity and intensity.

In my area, there is a slow awakening to the fact that there have been forgotten issues such as people on waiting lists and inactivity risks.

[Spekulatius]

 

https://www.boston.com/news/health/2020/04/19/an-overlooked-possibly-fatal-coronavirus-crisis-a-dire-need-for-kidney-dialysis

 

Unforeseen knock on effect from COVID-19.