Coronavirus

[tng]

 

Not looking for an argument here just clarification of my thoughts and others who have consistently said I was wrong. Im not looking for a victory lap here or looking to be ridiculed. Im just looking for a little clarification of thoughts vs what I hypothesized on or about March 15th since you continue to allude to it, case in point your 1.

 

What exactly is wide spread to you? 50x suspected cases is not wide spread? Jesus Christ.

 

My framework of thought was on around March 11-15th there were hundreds of thousands if not millions of people that had the corona virus. I was not able to project a specific number and the observation was completely anectotal. I get that. I also never suggested herd immunity.

 

So now that this latest antibody test comes out and its projected 50-80k people in one county in California in early April may have had the virus is it really that big of a stretch to think 100s of thousands/millions had it across the US in Mid March?  If it was 500-1000 people in the Standford study I would raise the white flag. If this study is to be taken even at face value the number infected was easily over a millon one month ago. Using that nationwide against confirmed studies we get 34 million in US infected that is too simple of a projection but gives a frame of refence. Even now is this not possible?

 

How much more evidence do we need? We have the German study....flawed bc area was hard hit so too high at 15%. Pregnant woman...flawed not random. Homeless study...flawed not random. Dutch study, people too young. Italian article on 60% of people had antibodies...area was hard hit, doesnt count. This study...flawed...they advertised on Facebook so people who may have had the virus more likely to participate even though we take our CFR from only the people we test who show up and are in a window to test positive via PCR.

 

I think many who have tracked this maybe pretty anchored on their theory and again that is up for debate. But so far we have 5 antibody studies all non perfect true. But all point to an infection rate way above what is confirmed and thus the CFR drops significantly as a result. Early in this pandemic looking even at the recent Gilead study these studies are not perfect but we are looking for any early data points we can get. But all the antibody studies as imperfect as each is points to way more spread then shown by confirmed tests and way lower CFR.  Is there an antibody study that has shown just the opposite?

 

Many of the critics of this antibody studies immediately point to the sensitivity/specificity of the tests used to find this data suggesting they cannot not be relied on to say this is "like the flu". Yet many including RichardGibbons advocate for heavy testing and say this is a necessary metric and should be used extensively. If you dont use it you are dangerous, we must test!!. So which is it?  ??? When the data fits we love em and when it doesn't we hate em?

 

I think certain areas almost have to be very widespread. It's hard to imagine that it isn't wide spread in a subway city like New York. One infected person going to and from work for a few days would have exposed several hundred people in an extremely tightly packed train with poor ventilation. Rush hour is basically like having a giant parade twice a day (and that has been blamed for widespread cases in some other areas). Also, if a Boston-area college has a dozen confirmed cases, can anybody believe that it wasn't widespread through the student body (but probably many asymptomatic because they are young)? Boston is also a subway city and there was that MIT study on the sewage of one Boston-area town that hints at it being extremely wide spread (apparently everybody is pooping out virus). California has some very dense areas, but most people drive, so the subway cities might have multiples more people infected. On the other hand, it is hard to imagine this being extremely widespread in the mid-west.

 

I do think there is too much blind faith in testing and contact tracing working. That will work in less densely populated areas (but so will anything else). However, even if we can instantly test people in New York or Boston, each train is going to have dozens of false positives. And then what? Quarantine everybody on the train (who are all clearly exposed) and all their families and co-workers? That very quickly becomes everybody. I just don't know how you can re-open a city that relies on public transit like New York City or Boston unless it is widespread there already.

[Spekulatius]

"Yet if policy makers were aware from the outset that the Covid-19 death toll would be closer to that of seasonal flu than the millions of American deaths predicted by early models dependent on inputs that now look inaccurate, would they have risked tens of millions of jobs and livelihoods? The science to support better modeling and decision making is rapidly becoming available. One hopes that it will inform better policy decisions."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-data-suggest-the-coronavirus-isnt-as-deadly-as-we-thought-11587155298?cx_testId=3&cx_testVariant=cx_2&cx_artPos=1#cxrecs_s

I understand that you're not into controlled experiments and use more common sense and hunches.

Just for a second though, assume that we could go back in time (at the outset) and somehow the US applies your model (try to selectively protect the at-risk population and keep things going as much as possible somehow; you still need to explain how this would have been done as roughly a third of the adult population in the US is at risk). What do you think the mortality and ICU admissions would have looked like? better? same? worse?

Looking at (and comparing) what other countries have been doing may help formulate an opinion?

Do you believe in the memory of water concept?

 

 

I think the interesting thing about how to deal with this epidemic is that so little is known from the get go  and everyone learns as we go and adjust to new data coming in. It’s and iterative process not a fixed playbook.

 

Also, none of what happens is deterministic, at the moment orders for shelter in place are givens the future path is changed and we can never know what would have happened alternatively.

I think if the government had done absolutely nothing, people would have reacted and some of the things that were ordered would have occurred anyways (social distancing, sports events canceled , restaurants emptying out or being closed etc).

 

It’s less about right or wrong from the beginning, but more how you react to data, using precautionary principles and using proven techniques used to solve similar problems (meaning other epidemics) and iterate from there.

 

A year or two from now, we will much more about this (death rate, asymptotic rate, treatment) and even then, I suspect there will be significant disagreement about what is right or wrong and how to interpret data or deal with newer slightly different situations. People will say “how stupid that none one wore masks” when this thing broke out and future generations may laugh at us just we cringe how they treated the medieval plague epidemics back in those dark times.

[RichardGibbons]

March 15th I make a suggestion regarding how wide spread the disease is which you heavily disagree with.

March 20th California becomes the first state to lock down, enacts shelter in place orders.

March 21st-April 3rd Somehow exponential growth continues to occur in here obvious to you and everyone else but me with the state in complete lock down

April 3-4th Stanford does a study which we find out suggests a single county in said state has possibly 50-80k people infected.

April 15th You post a picture saying we bent the curve(severely halting exponential growth ) by locking down the state/country and its proof positive it worked because the deaths were lower then expected.

 

:o :o :o :o :o

 

So which is it? Exponential growth occurred that I'm stubbornly ignorant to, or your picture that you made a point of posting is false? Cant have both occurring in the same time period. Which one you going with here?

 

Yep, you're right, my argument doesn't make sense. Sorry for mocking you about that.

[cubsfan]

This is a very interesting video clip on the origin of the virus in the Wuhan lab:

 

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/tucker-carlson-china-coronavirus-origin

 

At one point in January, scientists in Shanghai succeeded in sequencing DNA from the virus. The information they gathered would have been crucial to researchers around the world who were trying to understand the virus and develop vaccines against it.

 

But the Chinese government ordered the viral samples destroyed and the lab notes shredded. The scientists themselves were disciplined for daring to conduct the research, and their lab was shut down.

 

The Chinese government then quarantined the city of Wuhan. Millions fled. But apparently, relatively few of them were allowed to travel to Beijing,

the Chinese capital. Instead, they flew to cities around the world.

 

[Guest Schwab711]

Stanford found 50/3330 (1.5%) tested positive for antibodies. They adjusted these results and reported a far higher headline number to claim 50x-80x undercounting. The false positive rate was estimated to be 1.0% (0.0%,1.5%). That means there were was an unadjusted 0.5% positive antibody test that was reported in the mainstream news at 8x higher.

 

With the homeless and pregnant woman, everyone was angry with putting context around results (viral load seems to matter). Now here, no one wants to question adjustments. Unadjusted data suggests ~10x uncounted.

 

I'll also point out that no one called fake news. No one questioned why CNN and everyone else blindly supports Trump. The study adjusted the result to 2.81% and media reported the upperbound of the adjusted results.

 

We should all slow down with cherry picking data. It's going to take years to know the answer and it doesn't matter who guesses right.

[Guest cherzeca]

@richardG

 

"Yeah, the cool thing is, this was done for us already in Italy. It's fascinating that this huge, insane example of the consequences of a horrible pandemic were right there in Italy--and now in NYC as well!..."

 

yeah the cool thing is kids who were sent home from school to stay 24/7 in their homes and, in Italy and in the boroughs of NYC where covid has hit especially hard, these homes are three generational.  so the cool thing is to think about things a bit.

 

I have consistently said that all scientists and public policy experts understood from the beginning that covid was lethal only against elderly and those with underlying complications.  so do we focus our limited (at least at the beginning) mitigation resources on everyone or on those most at risk...no we do worse than stupid and put the elderly at especial danger...hell, nursing homes weren't shut down to visitors until late March.

 

why this stupidity?  because we are too reliant on experts and put our common sense in a dust bin.

[Cigarbutt]

"Yet if policy makers were aware from the outset that the Covid-19 death toll would be closer to that of seasonal flu than the millions of American deaths predicted by early models dependent on inputs that now look inaccurate, would they have risked tens of millions of jobs and livelihoods? The science to support better modeling and decision making is rapidly becoming available. One hopes that it will inform better policy decisions."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-data-suggest-the-coronavirus-isnt-as-deadly-as-we-thought-11587155298?cx_testId=3&cx_testVariant=cx_2&cx_artPos=1#cxrecs_s

I understand that you're not into controlled experiments and use more common sense and hunches.

Just for a second though, assume that we could go back in time (at the outset) and somehow the US applies your model (try to selectively protect the at-risk population and keep things going as much as possible somehow; you still need to explain how this would have been done as roughly a third of the adult population in the US is at risk). What do you think the mortality and ICU admissions would have looked like? better? same? worse?

Looking at (and comparing) what other countries have been doing may help formulate an opinion?

Do you believe in the memory of water concept?

I think the interesting thing about how to deal with this epidemic is that so little is known from the get go  and everyone learns as we go and adjust to new data coming in. It’s and iterative process not a fixed playbook.

Also, none of what happens is deterministic, at the moment orders for shelter in place are givens the future path is changed and we can never know what would have happened alternatively.

I think if the government had done absolutely nothing, people would have reacted and some of the things that were ordered would have occurred anyways (social distancing, sports events canceled , restaurants emptying out or being closed etc).

It’s less about right or wrong from the beginning, but more how you react to data, using precautionary principles and using proven techniques used to solve similar problems (meaning other epidemics) and iterate from there.

A year or two from now, we will much more about this (death rate, asymptotic rate, treatment) and even then, I suspect there will be significant disagreement about what is right or wrong and how to interpret data or deal with newer slightly different situations. People will say “how stupid that none one wore masks” when this thing broke out and future generations may laugh at us just we cringe how they treated the medieval plague epidemics back in those dark times.

Absolutely!

It will be trial and error., to some degree. Also, given the wide uncertainty, a relatively diverse way to deal with the issue should help the learn as we go philosophy (learning from others, what others do wrong and also what others do right).

Yesterday, our prime minister (who and where does not really matter here, this is not to be condescending as my area is showing quite poor results, on a relative basis, for deaths in chronic care homes) openly acknowledged mistakes (mistakes done at the outbreak and errors of omission before the outbreak {resiliency issue}) and it looks like he may have won more votes doing so. Recognizing mistakes is OK.

On a personal note, I just learned the death of somebody I knew on a personal level (extended family member). She died in her late 60's. She was born with some kind of syndrome but was able to earn a living until she reached her 50s and was then institutionalized. She had a rough personality and a lowish IQ but (IMHO) our generalized standards of living have not given proportional care for her.

[Guest cherzeca]

@richardG

 

"Yeah, the cool thing is, this was done for us already in Italy. It's fascinating that this huge, insane example of the consequences of a horrible pandemic were right there in Italy--and now in NYC as well!..."

 

yeah the cool thing is kids who were sent home from school to stay 24/7 in their homes and, in Italy and in the boroughs of NYC where covid has hit especially hard, these homes are three generational.  so the cool thing is to think about things a bit.

 

I have consistently said that all scientists and public policy experts understood from the beginning that covid was lethal only against elderly and those with underlying complications.  so do we focus our limited (at least at the beginning) mitigation resources on everyone or on those most at risk...no we do worse than stupid and put the elderly at especial danger...hell, nursing homes weren't shut down to visitors until late March.

 

why this stupidity?  because we are too reliant on experts and put our common sense in a dust bin.

 

no one using common sense would have permitted this to happen, given the special threat to elderly...we were too busy doing what the experts were saying (after the experts finished their circle jerk):

 

https://nypost.com/2020/04/17/nyc-nursing-homes-besieged-by-coronavirus-deaths-state/

 

"The partial breakdown only includes 72 nursing homes across the state that reported more than five deaths. Of those, 42 reported at least 10 deaths. There are more than 600 nursing homes in New York State.

 

More than 1,100 residents cumulatively died just at these 72 facilities.

 

Overall, 3,316 elderly nursing resident residents died at either nursing homes, adult day care facilities or hospitals from COVID-19. Of that total, the virus killed 2,056 nursing residents in New York City.

 

There are 6,475 confirmed COVID-19 positive cases in licensed nursing homes.

 

...and to prove that even these numbers are still woefully incomplete, the Post added that several homes in the city that reportedly suffered dozens of deaths weren't even listed in the state database.

 

But two other nursing homes highlighted by The Post as having dozens of deaths combined amid the pandemic  — the Chateau at Brooklyn Rehabilitation & Nursing Center in Sheepshead Bay and the King David Center for Nursing and Rehabilitation in Gravesend — were not listed in the tally."

 

[Peregrine]

Interesting data coming out of Sweden. No lockdown policy (though citizens are being extra careful) yet ICU admissions have been flat for a month and COVID deaths have been on the decline.

[Gregmal]

Interesting data coming out of Sweden. No lockdown policy (though citizens are being extra careful) yet ICU admissions have been flat for a month and COVID deaths have been on the decline.

 

So it coincides with the data from the countries who have been in lockdown? Interesting. As I originally said, probably to the delight of many, Trump fucked up and panicked because it came time to either make a decision, or pass the buck. Allowing the shutdown was catastrophically stupid. Just use common sense.

 

"Every 1% increase in unemployment means 40,000 people die". We just increased unemployment, 100% willingly, by a gazillion million percent, because a low 5 figure number of old people and folks with conditions might die... Donald Trump.... "I'm not responsible for that"

[Peregrine]

Interesting data coming out of Sweden. No lockdown policy (though citizens are being extra careful) yet ICU admissions have been flat for a month and COVID deaths have been on the decline.

 

So it coincides with the data from the countries who have been in lockdown? Interesting. As I originally said, probably to the delight of many, Trump fucked up and panicked because it came time to either make a decision, or pass the buck. Allowing the shutdown was catastrophically stupid. Just use common sense.

 

"Every 1% increase in unemployment means 40,000 people die". We just increased unemployment, 100% willingly, by a gazillion million percent, because a low 5 figure number of old people and folks with conditions might die... Donald Trump.... "I'm not responsible for that"

 

To be fair, Sweden is a low density country with a fairly homogenous citizenry who believes in individual responsibility to society. So they're doing some social distancing themselves without the draconian lockdown orders in place.

 

The US saw what happened to NYC and extrapolated that to everywhere else in the country which is an assumption that is showing to be misguided with growing evidence.

[Guest cherzeca]

"The US saw what happened to NYC and extrapolated that to everywhere else in the country which is an assumption that is showing to be misguided with growing evidence."

 

correct.  why did deblasio shut down all of the schools in NYC?  he is beholden to the teachers union, who were starting a sick out.  focused mitigation resources on teachers and keeping schools open would have saved many lives. common sense.

[Guest Schwab711]

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/florida/2020/04/17/north-florida-beaches-among-first-to-reopen-since-coronavirus-closures/

 

Florida was one of the last to shut down,  only shut down for 16 days, and has one the lowest deaths per thousand in the entire country and a top 5 population.

 

Makes you wonder if heat/population spread>then a statewide lockdown. Texas and California would suggest the same.

 

I don't know the mechanics of how/why, but warm weather seems true (when it's been questioned whether it will be so) and 'viral dose' seems to matter. Healthcare workers are getting disproportionately sick and they might be skewing bad outcomes in younger brackets. That would certainly be encouraging for the broader population (that it's not as bad, to your points on what you see).

 

I don't know. We'll see what data shows. HC worker data is from CDC. I'll dig up the article later.

[Guest Schwab711]

Interesting data coming out of Sweden. No lockdown policy (though citizens are being extra careful) yet ICU admissions have been flat for a month and COVID deaths have been on the decline.

 

So it coincides with the data from the countries who have been in lockdown? Interesting. As I originally said, probably to the delight of many, Trump fucked up and panicked because it came time to either make a decision, or pass the buck. Allowing the shutdown was catastrophically stupid. Just use common sense.

 

"Every 1% increase in unemployment means 40,000 people die". We just increased unemployment, 100% willingly, by a gazillion million percent, because a low 5 figure number of old people and folks with conditions might die... Donald Trump.... "I'm not responsible for that"

 

To be fair, Sweden is a low density country with a fairly homogenous citizenry who believes in individual responsibility to society. So they're doing some social distancing themselves without the draconian lockdown orders in place.

 

The US saw what happened to NYC and extrapolated that to everywhere else in the country which is an assumption that is showing to be misguided with growing evidence.

 

Every country of size did a lockdown. The idea the US had a choice to avoid recession is misleading. We had no data and global demand contracted. We don't control China, France, Spain, Italy, ect. I don't get this point because who are we blaming? Every local and state leader? It feels like a political point more than a helpful one.

 

During Spanish Flu, some countries had minimal economic and health impact. Some got beat up in both. Luck plays a role. Preparedness plays a role.

[Peregrine]

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/florida/2020/04/17/north-florida-beaches-among-first-to-reopen-since-coronavirus-closures/

 

Florida was one of the last to shut down,  only shut down for 16 days, and has one the lowest deaths per thousand in the entire country and a top 5 population.

 

Makes you wonder if heat/population spread>then a statewide lockdown. Texas and California would suggest the same.

 

I don't know the mechanics of how/why, but warm weather seems true (when it's been questioned whether it will be so) and 'viral dose' seems to matter. Healthcare workers are getting disproportionately sick and they might be skewing bad outcomes in younger brackets. That would certainly be encouraging for the broader population (that it's not as bad, to your points on what you see).

 

I don't know. We'll see what data shows. HC worker data is from CDC. I'll dig up the article later.

 

Warm and humid weather has been shown to wear off the fatty layer of other viruses, making it more difficult to attach to cells and transmit.

[Cigarbutt]

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/florida/2020/04/17/north-florida-beaches-among-first-to-reopen-since-coronavirus-closures/

 

Florida was one of the last to shut down,  only shut down for 16 days, and has one the lowest deaths per thousand in the entire country and a top 5 population.

 

Makes you wonder if heat/population spread>then a statewide lockdown. Texas and California would suggest the same.

 

I don't know the mechanics of how/why, but warm weather seems true (when it's been questioned whether it will be so) and 'viral dose' seems to matter. Healthcare workers are getting disproportionately sick and they might be skewing bad outcomes in younger brackets. That would certainly be encouraging for the broader population (that it's not as bad, to your points on what you see).

 

I don't know. We'll see what data shows. HC worker data is from CDC. I'll dig up the article later.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e6.htm?s_cid=mm6915e6_w

The viral load is an important issue (as well as the frequently documented situation of insufficient protective equipment in high-risk environments, acute and cumulative).

[LongHaul]

Sweden looks ok - not great.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

[LongHaul]

 

New chart on adherance to mask wearing and RO.  Fascinating. 

https://masks4all.co/

 

 

[Peregrine]

Sweden looks ok - not great.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

 

Not sure how worldometer counts. This is from Sweden's own public health website:

 

COVID ICU admissions:

 

 

COVID daily deaths:

 

[samwise]

Interesting data coming out of Sweden. No lockdown policy (though citizens are being extra careful) yet ICU admissions have been flat for a month and COVID deaths have been on the decline.

 

So it coincides with the data from the countries who have been in lockdown? Interesting. As I originally said, probably to the delight of many, Trump fucked up and panicked because it came time to either make a decision, or pass the buck. Allowing the shutdown was catastrophically stupid. Just use common sense.

 

"Every 1% increase in unemployment means 40,000 people die". We just increased unemployment, 100% willingly, by a gazillion million percent, because a low 5 figure number of old people and folks with conditions might die... Donald Trump.... "I'm not responsible for that"

 

To be fair, Sweden is a low density country with a fairly homogenous citizenry who believes in individual responsibility to society. So they're doing some social distancing themselves without the draconian lockdown orders in place.

 

The US saw what happened to NYC and extrapolated that to everywhere else in the country which is an assumption that is showing to be misguided with growing evidence.

 

Every country of size did a lockdown. The idea the US had a choice to avoid recession is misleading. We had no data and global demand contracted. We don't control China, France, Spain, Italy, ect. I don't get this point because who are we blaming? Every local and state leader? It feels like a political point more than a helpful one.

 

During Spanish Flu, some countries had minimal economic and health impact. Some got beat up in both. Luck plays a role. Preparedness plays a role.

 

Sweden is definitely interesting. Thanks for posting frank87.

 

It’s one of the control cases in a global study on proper policy response. The proper comparison is with its Scandinavian neighbours. If they all get off lightly, then something about the region (like population density) saved them all. But if Denmark is ok and many more Swedes die, then that would show that the lockdown helps. Or the opposite.

 

I am also interested in an economic comparison between them. As Schwab mentioned, it’s not as if everything is normal in Sweden currently. Yes schools and hair-dressers and restaurants are not closed, but people are definitely going out less (almost comparable to Denmark or Norway) according to google’s data. So has Sweden done better economically than Denmark or Norway? Or is the net effect on the economy just as bad.

 

Another interesting case will be Brazil, perhaps compared to Ecuador. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/lula-bolsonaro-brazil-to-slaughterhouse-covid-19-coronavirus

https://time.com/5822926/bolsonaro-fires-health-minister-coronavirus/

 

Unfortunately I don’t know much about these regions of the world. But this is a global board. If anyone can post about economic and health effects in these regions, then we can figure out what the trade off actually looks like, without depending much on models. Best case is the disease can be managed without too much economic damage. I would hope for that.

 

Back from natural social experiments to models. Models are all we have for things never seen before, whether those models are mental or excel sheet based, mathematical or common sense based. There are now models looking at reopening.

BC has talked about some partial reopening where contact between people is reduced, i.e give the virus fewer chances to transmit and reduce R0. They estimate BC is currently at 30% of normal, but could be increased to 60% of normal and things can be kept in control. Not sure yet what that means in terms of the economy. It’s still bad for airlines and hotels as discretionary travel will still be restricted.

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/b-c-health-officials-say-some-covid-19-restrictions-could-be-lifted-in-mid-may-1.4901026

[Guest cherzeca]

 

New chart on adherance to mask wearing and RO.  Fascinating. 

https://masks4all.co/

 

ever ask a barber if you needed a haircut?

[Viking]

Are people seriously suggesting that the lock down that happened in most advanced countries in the world to deal with the virus was a mistake because millions of people did not die (i.e. the projections were wrong)? Talk about revisionist history.

 

Virus comes to US. No testing. It spreads and community transfer begins. Clusters form in Washington State and New York City. Very limited testing. Virus continues to spread. These 2 regions start seeding virus to all other states in US. Now limited testing. Virus numbers start to explode. ‘Experts’ explain that now that virus is seeded in all parts of the US it will double every 4-5 days. If nothing is done health care system will be overrun and death rate will skyrocket.

 

By now the world has many examples of countries where the virus was allowed to cluster and spread with limited testing being done: Wuhan China, Iran and Northern Italy. The result was a health catastrophe. The only solution was to lock down the regions, and eventually the entire country. Health care systems were completely overwhelmed. Many people were dying because hospitals had no resources to care for them. If lock downs had not happened how many people would have died in Wuhan, Iran or Northern Italy? And the virus would have spread more quickly to the rest of the world.

 

The outbreaks in Washington State and New York City provided frightening examples of what was coming to the US if nothing was done. Testing was still not available. So the US had one choice to avoid a health catastrophe. And that was to lock down the country.

 

The fact that the US did not experience a health catastrophe (like other parts of the world) is due to the lock downs that were put in place. It has taken 4 weeks for the results of the lock downs to become apparent.

 

To now suggest that lock downs were a waste of time is complete and utter BS. Re-read this thread and all the facts are there for those who care to look. When a country mismanages the virus it has one tool to get control back: lock down.

————————————

Here is what is important today: Has the US learned any lessons in the past 2 months?

1.) One big lesson is testing is the key to managing the virus until a vaccine is found. Massive numbers of tests are needed. They need to be prioritized. Results need to be provided within 24 hours.

2.) Contact tracing needs to be done for all people who test positive. An army of people will be needed for this.

3.) Quarantine: people who test positive need to be quarantined and supported as needed through this.

 

Scott Gottleib says the earliest the US will be able to do the above in some capacity is the fall. The President has just stated that the federal government will not be providing leadership on solving the testing issue; it will be left up to the states. No leadership or coordination at the federal level. Not good.

 

What this means is as the US opens back up it will be at high risk of more clusters forming which then re-seed the virus into many parts of the US. This means the risks are high that the US will be needing to do another lock down.

 

If your health response to the virus is wrong you will kill your economy. If you get the health response right you can start to get your economy moving again.

 

[no_free_lunch]

As Sweden shows there is something in between total lockdown and nothing at all. Trump's plan isn't just a complete reopening and back to February precaution levels, e.g. no precautions. People will wear masks, wash their hands, avoid large gatherings.  Hopefully that will be enough in areas with lower virus concentrations.

 

You have to remember that there are human health costs to staying closed.  Many medical procedures are being pushed off, people are not going in for cancer screenings to the same levels, mental health problems are surely going to increase, we need money to pay for medicine and medical procedures. 

 

Its not black and white.  You have to find a balance and staying locked away until zero cases is ignoring these other costs.

[RichardGibbons]

I have consistently said that all scientists and public policy experts understood from the beginning that covid was lethal only against elderly and those with underlying complications.  so do we focus our limited (at least at the beginning) mitigation resources on everyone or on those most at risk...no we do worse than stupid and put the elderly at especial danger...hell, nursing homes weren't shut down to visitors until late March.

 

why this stupidity?  because we are too reliant on experts and put our common sense in a dust bin.

 

Yeah, the problem is that this common sense doesn't work, and experts know this while non-experts like you and me do not. (Well, I do know it now, but I didn't a few weeks ago.)

 

The actual common sense is that the elderly need more contact with people in society than anyone else except children. If you get a huge percentage of the population infected with an easily-transmitted virus, then it's impossible to isolate the elderly.

 

British Columbia has been among the most successful regions in the world at responding to the virus.  Yet 26 Care Home just in the Vancouver area have had outbreaks.

 

A long term care nurse lives with me, and her boss has been fantastic--locking down his care home before every other care facility in BC, preventing movement of employees across care homes early, fever testing everyone every day, PPEing all the staff... Even with that, one of the people there caught COVID-19 in early April, and worked in the care home with patients for several days before she became symptomatic and was diagnosed.

 

And this is with extreme precautions in care homes and low per-capita cases everywhere in the province. Now give 50% of the population COVID-19, and assume that most of the elderly population isn't actually in care homes, but rather living in their own places or maybe being taken care of by their kids.

 

Now, one could say that common sense should allow you to take that information, and extrapolate to a massive death toll among the elderly if your suggested approach were adopted.

 

But I think that's wrong. It think it's more that you aren't educated enough on this topic to understand what would happen in this situation, and so you rely on incorrect "common sense" that would wipe out a large percentage of the elderly.

 

(That said, I don't blame you at all for talking about your common sense approach--speculation is fine, and everyone knows you're no epidemiologist. You'd only deserve derision if you believe that your common sense is superior to the decades of knowledge of the epidemiologists who actually understand the consequences of what you propose.)

[wescobrk]

Texas governor announced he wants to reopen around April 27th-May1st (in phases). This will be a good "test" case for the country. Great use of pun here as Texas doesn't have access to reliable testing. This will most likely result in hospitals beyond capacity in the summer causing Texas to close again in the summer.

Maybe the market will decrease again once we see the results of Texas.

 

The current market levels don't make a lot of sense to me. Yes, the latest drug from Gilead shows promise for those in the severe stage but it does nothing to limit the spread and it is far from conclusive.