Casey Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 Awesome. I would love to know if I've had this already.
Gregmal Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wheels-are-in-motion-for-widespread-coronavirus-antibody-testing-in-new-york-2020-04-15?mod=mw_latestnews Antibody testing will be key to getting economies around the country moving again. “We have these estimates that it could be millions of people” in the U.S. who will qualify to go back to work once an antibody test is deployed, said Joshua M. Epstein, a professor of epidemiology at the New York University School of Global Public Health. And no one hit me with that its been spreading since you said millions of people 5-6 weeks ago so thats why I could be that high now. If Dalal can say the curve was flattened and disaster was averted because of the lock down, then you cant in same breath said it has been spreading rapidly. Cant have it both ways. LOL yea, or that the government response was a disaster, even though the numbers turned out to be pretty underwhelming. Or that Cuomo and De Blasio did a great just, when NY was the dumpster fire, WHILE broadcasting that the entire US was basically going to be Italy, when in realty it only ended up being his state and his elected officials... He didn't commit to things on purpose though, a lot of hucksters do this. That way, either way, they can claim they were right. Its a very NYer way to behave.
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 Finally I haven't seen you piss all over Dalal, alwaysdrawing etc who foresaw exponential deaths and complete collapse of the healthcare system in WA and NYC. Those two cities were supposed to be a sign of things to come for the rest of the US which as of right now, is completely wrong. Please get a hard on for them too as I dont feel its necessary to run back and rub their nose in it. Be fair and do it for me. I made it policy to no longer respond to you (Schwab711 does a good job anyway), but you attempt to call me out here and grossly mischaracterize my statements--"fearing a collapse in the healthcare system" does not equal "predicting complete collapse of healthcare system": No, collapse did not happen thanks to - NYC lockdown, - every single hospital in NYC turning itself inside out, - Cuomo, - cancelling all elective cases, - A military ship, - Javit's center, - A tent in central park, - And more unprecedented, never before done actions taken Saying I should be criticized for fearing healthcare collapse in early March (before any of these things were put in place) is laughable. And btw, the deaths were exponential until the curve flattened thanks to all of these unprecedented, never-before-done measures. Finally, You are and have been consistently wrong and refuse to eat your bowl of crow. So, your bowl is going cold--can I just have it instead? Groceries are hard to come by these days. Thanks. That still means you were wrong though and every model you quoted and took to heart was also, and yes you quoted models. Tough to take I know. Your predictions never matched reality, and never were going to. You were unhinged and scared. People do weird things and are irrational when they are scared, and it was obvious you were. Your forgiven. Lol. Putting a seatbelt on does not mean one is predicting a car crash. But to each his own.
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 That being said I dont think my guesses were too bad. No, they were appallingly bad, to the extent that I'd lose a some degree of respect for all doctors if it weren't for Dalal's sensible posts on this thread to pull me back off that ledge. Frankly, it terrifies me that doctors exist who ignore evidence for gut feel, make wild speculations not even supported by common sense let alone facts, and then when the evidence proves them wrong, continue to insist that they were right. (What the heck is one to do if one seriously needs a doctor, and this is the doctor one gets? Just roll over and die?) Lol. Please point to me where I was wrong Dick? Dalal's sensible posts? Jesus Christ, which ones? the chicken little the sky is falling ones? the never ending cock sucking of Taleb? The tiresome Buffett and Munger quotes? The personal attack ones? The one where he told Gregmal "Fuck you" when he was wrong? The never ending Trump bullshit and political innuendo. The ones where he insulted myself and others unabated? Cherzeca was right, you belong in the Dalal pile too. You want to align yourself with that childish bullshit? Be my guest. We could have a 10 page thread of just his/her insults throughout the message board. Quite a character on the end of that keyboard. Self assumingly witty, smart, and bumptious but in all honestly if the real life personality matched what has been typed out on this message board a DSM-5 evaluation would be in order. You mean i told that guy to fuck off after he mocked NYers dying in “the cesspool”. You continue to make things up. It’s ok, in your corner you have: - Gregmal - cubsfan - chezerca A.k.a. The best of the best
LC Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 I just hope that when we are finally done with SARS-CoV-2, that there will be a World-Wide conclusion, to avoid that this - to the best of all nations - won't happen again. At the risk of sounding misanthropic: I think the lesson here is that, this WILL happen again (could be next year, next decade, next century - but viruses do not go away) ; and we will NOT be prepared, we will not learn from this, and to think otherwise is to grossly overestimate the ability for a bunch of tribal nations and populist leaders to "do what is right". Look at China and the US to see what the world powers are doing: totalitarian misinformation vs. egotistical misinformation. Nonsense all around.
orthopa Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 That being said I dont think my guesses were too bad. No, they were appallingly bad, to the extent that I'd lose a some degree of respect for all doctors if it weren't for Dalal's sensible posts on this thread to pull me back off that ledge. Frankly, it terrifies me that doctors exist who ignore evidence for gut feel, make wild speculations not even supported by common sense let alone facts, and then when the evidence proves them wrong, continue to insist that they were right. (What the heck is one to do if one seriously needs a doctor, and this is the doctor one gets? Just roll over and die?) Lol. Please point to me where I was wrong Dick? Dalal's sensible posts? Jesus Christ, which ones? the chicken little the sky is falling ones? the never ending cock sucking of Taleb? The tiresome Buffett and Munger quotes? The personal attack ones? The one where he told Gregmal "Fuck you" when he was wrong? The never ending Trump bullshit and political innuendo. The ones where he insulted myself and others unabated? Cherzeca was right, you belong in the Dalal pile too. You want to align yourself with that childish bullshit? Be my guest. We could have a 10 page thread of just his/her insults throughout the message board. Quite a character on the end of that keyboard. Self assumingly witty, smart, and bumptious but in all honestly if the real life personality matched what has been typed out on this message board a DSM-5 evaluation would be in order. You mean i told that guy to fuck off after he mocked NYers dying in “the cesspool”. You continue to make things up. It’s ok, in your corner you have: - Gregmal - cubsfan - chezerca A.k.a. The best of the best You typed that stuff no one else, and it has nothing to do with corners or teams. If in real life you treat people with same vitriol and aggression that you do on here then maybe you need to actually re read those Munger/Buffet quotes because let me tell you are not even in the same galaxy.
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 That being said I dont think my guesses were too bad. No, they were appallingly bad, to the extent that I'd lose a some degree of respect for all doctors if it weren't for Dalal's sensible posts on this thread to pull me back off that ledge. Frankly, it terrifies me that doctors exist who ignore evidence for gut feel, make wild speculations not even supported by common sense let alone facts, and then when the evidence proves them wrong, continue to insist that they were right. (What the heck is one to do if one seriously needs a doctor, and this is the doctor one gets? Just roll over and die?) Lol. Please point to me where I was wrong Dick? Dalal's sensible posts? Jesus Christ, which ones? the chicken little the sky is falling ones? the never ending cock sucking of Taleb? The tiresome Buffett and Munger quotes? The personal attack ones? The one where he told Gregmal "Fuck you" when he was wrong? The never ending Trump bullshit and political innuendo. The ones where he insulted myself and others unabated? Cherzeca was right, you belong in the Dalal pile too. You want to align yourself with that childish bullshit? Be my guest. We could have a 10 page thread of just his/her insults throughout the message board. Quite a character on the end of that keyboard. Self assumingly witty, smart, and bumptious but in all honestly if the real life personality matched what has been typed out on this message board a DSM-5 evaluation would be in order. You mean i told that guy to fuck off after he mocked NYers dying in “the cesspool”. You continue to make things up. It’s ok, in your corner you have: - Gregmal - cubsfan - chezerca A.k.a. The best of the best You typed that stuff no one else, and it has nothing to do with corners or teams. If in real life you treat people with same vitriol and aggression that you do on here then maybe you need to actually re read those Munger/Buffet quotes because let me tell you are not even in the same galaxy. Bro, I don’t care about arguing further. Like I said, new policy. I am glad it hasn’t been the worst case scenario and we’ve flattened. Just like being glad I didn’t have to use my seatbelt. If in your book that means I too predicted wrong, then so be it. Carry on.
rolling Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wheels-are-in-motion-for-widespread-coronavirus-antibody-testing-in-new-york-2020-04-15?mod=mw_latestnews Antibody testing will be key to getting economies around the country moving again. “We have these estimates that it could be millions of people” in the U.S. who will qualify to go back to work once an antibody test is deployed, said Joshua M. Epstein, a professor of epidemiology at the New York University School of Global Public Health. "Until the tests are available, there’s no way of knowing just how many New Yorkers have had the virus, Racaniello said. He estimates it could be 10 times more than the official tally, due to lack of early testing and the potentially large number of asymptomatic carriers. " And no one hit me with that its been spreading since you said millions of people 5-6 weeks ago so thats why I could be that high now. If Dalal can say the curve was flattened and disaster was averted because of the lock down, then you cant in same breath said it has been spreading rapidly. Cant have it both ways. Dear orthopa, not taking sides, but Exponencial growth makes it possible. numbers were growing over 30% a day in most places prior to lockdown, which means healthcare capacity would be overwhelmed in those places were it not for the lockdowns: lockdowns earn you time by reducing case growth from over 30 to sub 10% (over here after a few weeks we are now on a 3-4% case growth per day). with that time you can plan, prioritize, buy supplies, organize campaign hospitals, etc. at over 30 % a day (in some places maybe over 50% a day) everybody gets sick before you can do anything. However, millions of cases is not something strange in a country as big as the us. And with a double in less than 3 days you very quickly reach the millions. The lockdowns however might have turned many millions into a few millions, which means this thing will last longer, but should not kill so many
orthopa Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 I just hope that when we are finally done with SARS-CoV-2, that there will be a World-Wide conclusion, to avoid that this - to the best of all nations - won't happen again. At the risk of sounding misanthropic: I think the lesson here is that, this WILL happen again (could be next year, next decade, next century - but viruses do not go away) ; and we will NOT be prepared, we will not learn from this, and to think otherwise is to grossly overestimate the ability for a bunch of tribal nations and populist leaders to "do what is right". Look at China and the US to see what the world powers are doing: totalitarian misinformation vs. egotistical misinformation. Nonsense all around. Not only that but how well are we prepared for: 1. A tsunami that destroys the east/west coast 2. An earthquake that devastates California/west coast 3. A nuclear attack and associated fall out 4. An asteroid hitting earth 5. insert recent hollywood end of world movie. Hindsight is always 20/20. Any natural disaster(virus/disease included here) in the future will take us by surprise and we wont be prepared for it. We cant think of everything and as powerful as we think we are the natural forces that rule our world are way stronger then us. The BP spill was a shit show. The Haiti earthquake was a shit show. Katrina was a shit show, etc etc. We are humans, we make mistakes, we are forced by default to react in situations with limited knowledge and are horrible at making predictions. That being said is it any surprise this may have not been handled perfectly at every step along the way?
cobafdek Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 I'm trying to ask this uncontroversially mostly medical professionals here: assuming a gradual relaxation of the lockdown with no vaccine, no treatment, and no (or minimal) testing/tracking. Would you say going out is acceptable or too risky? Let's assume a medium-high risk state like MA. Let's assume not super vulnerable person. If we want to talk concrete "going out" categories, let's say going to parks, general shopping, meeting friends/family, going to office/work, going to a restaurant (I tried to order this from least risk to most risk). Outcome of "severe" infection sounds very scary. That has to be balanced with infection risks though. I know this is a bit theoretical and uncertain, but since there's a talk of "relaxation" even in NY state, maybe this could be useful. I could open a new topic... but probably not worth it. Thanks Today, yes, I think the risk is acceptable, based on general reports of curve flattening and general lack of overwhelmed local ERs and ICUs. The "re-opening" of local economies should be conditional on: 1. universal mask usage 2. maintaining 6-ft social distancing 3. no large crowds This can allow many businesses, restaurants, maybe some schools to re-open. The decision regarding timing, pace, and extent of re-opening will be left to state governors and local authorities, who can fine-tune the above conditions, based on local factors. If a surge of serious cases start to show up in ERs and ICUs, they'll have to clamp down again. The federal government level can mostly give permission to states and localities to open up around April 30 (maybe even before), when they feel ready. They can veto crazy decisions that might happen in some regional southern areas, such as large church services, movie theaters, sports arenas. As you say, there is no good medical treatment/vaccine, and testing has been disappointing. (Whenever you rush out with new tests for a new disease, being unable to evaluate accuracy and reliability systematically, we really can't trust the results.) But you don't need testing or treatment in new pandemics, since the only effective measure is various levels of quarantine and travel restrictions. (If South Korea had no testing but had only lockdowns, they would have still been fine.) Today, I think the risk of economic recession/depression (deaths, suicides, depressions, lack of confidence in authorities) is greater than the risk of swamping the medical system, especially if the heavy lockdown extends beyond April 30. I think this feeling is widespread, and is percolating from the bottom-up. Any heavy handed top-down governmental restrictions will be answered by spontaneous bottom-up rebellion - so in a way, I think your question is moot. Improvement in testing should go on, but their utility will primarily be in retrospective analysis for future outbreaks. We don't need precise knowledge from test results to know what to do now (again, the only thing to do is isolation with masks and some form of quarantine). And even if a vaccine is developed, I don't have confidence that it will be effective or safe enough, especially if it comes earlier rather than later.
RichardGibbons Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 Lol. Please point to me where I was wrong Dick? Sure. It's pretty simple. You were saying early on that hundreds of thousands or millions of people in the USA probably had it, and that testing was pointless. Then, hundreds of thousands of people in NYC actually got it and more than 10K died, which wouldn't have happened if all those people were infected already. And the countries that have done the best have been the ones who were good at testing and tracing. That said, I have come down more harshly on you than others simply because you're dishonest, and because--if you are actually a doctor--I think that dishonesty makes you dangerous. (I would have no problem whatsoever with you if you were simply wrong and adjusted your beliefs as the evidence changed. In fact, I'd have a whole pile of respect for you, if that were the case.) I also think that anyone who makes the argument that the worst case didn't arise so the worst case scenario couldn't possibly be true--after there was a massive, month-long lockdown to prevent the worse case scenario--is either disingenuous or stupid or both.
Spekulatius Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wheels-are-in-motion-for-widespread-coronavirus-antibody-testing-in-new-york-2020-04-15?mod=mw_latestnews Antibody testing will be key to getting economies around the country moving again. “We have these estimates that it could be millions of people” in the U.S. who will qualify to go back to work once an antibody test is deployed, said Joshua M. Epstein, a professor of epidemiology at the New York University School of Global Public Health. And no one hit me with that its been spreading since you said millions of people 5-6 weeks ago so thats why I could be that high now. If Dalal can say the curve was flattened and disaster was averted because of the lock down, then you cant in same breath said it has been spreading rapidly. Cant have it both ways. LOL yea, or that the government response was a disaster, even though the numbers turned out to be pretty underwhelming. Or that Cuomo and De Blasio did a great just, when NY was the dumpster fire, WHILE broadcasting that the entire US was basically going to be Italy, when in realty it only ended up being his state and his elected officials... He didn't commit to things on purpose though, a lot of hucksters do this. That way, either way, they can claim they were right. Its a very NYer way to behave. I would put more blame on Blasio than on Cuomo for handling the COVID-19 epidemic. As a major, he is responsible to keep his city safe foremost and he failed to do so. When you look around the county, there were many majors (in Texas- DFW and Austin- etc) example), where majors before the state did and sometimes county the state advisory. Blasio failed in that regard it just continues his track record of failure (in my opinion) and while Cuomo wasn’t particular proactive either did manage the crisis well. The real hero’s (if you want to call it that) are Gary Newsom and Jay Inslee who were proactive, and despite having early exposure squashed this thing before the problem snowballed. It also can remind on the then derided decision of the SF major to shut down the city even though there were no cases at that time (February 25). Those folks deserve way more credit than Cuomo in my opinion.
hillfronter83 Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 This clearly shows virus was not wide spread in US in Jan 2020:
Guest cherzeca Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 @dalal "it’s ok, in your corner you have: - Gregmal - cubsfan - chezerca" hey fuckface, get the spelling of my user name right. are you stupid, dyslexic or both?
orthopa Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wheels-are-in-motion-for-widespread-coronavirus-antibody-testing-in-new-york-2020-04-15?mod=mw_latestnews Antibody testing will be key to getting economies around the country moving again. “We have these estimates that it could be millions of people” in the U.S. who will qualify to go back to work once an antibody test is deployed, said Joshua M. Epstein, a professor of epidemiology at the New York University School of Global Public Health. "Until the tests are available, there’s no way of knowing just how many New Yorkers have had the virus, Racaniello said. He estimates it could be 10 times more than the official tally, due to lack of early testing and the potentially large number of asymptomatic carriers. " And no one hit me with that its been spreading since you said millions of people 5-6 weeks ago so thats why I could be that high now. If Dalal can say the curve was flattened and disaster was averted because of the lock down, then you cant in same breath said it has been spreading rapidly. Cant have it both ways. Dear orthopa, not taking sides, but Exponencial growth makes it possible. numbers were growing over 30% a day in most places prior to lockdown, which means healthcare capacity would be overwhelmed in those places were it not for the lockdowns: lockdowns earn you time by reducing case growth from over 30 to sub 10% (over here after a few weeks we are now on a 3-4% case growth per day). with that time you can plan, prioritize, buy supplies, organize campaign hospitals, etc. at over 30 % a day (in some places maybe over 50% a day) everybody gets sick before you can do anything. However, millions of cases is not something strange in a country as big as the us. And with a double in less than 3 days you very quickly reach the millions. The lockdowns however might have turned many millions into a few millions, which means this thing will last longer, but should not kill so many I agree, and believe probably millions. Spreading rapidly and what that means is highly up for debate and probably useless to discuss right. Throw a number and situation out there and it seems plausible. My point was if the lock down slowed the spread and people stayed in their house, wore masks etc then the growth should have slowed exponentially. NY has been on a "pause" for a month. New cases caused by community spread should have hit rock bottom and in reality only now be from spread within families/close contacts etc. Once the pre lockdown infections progressed to recovered or death where else would the infection be coming from? So if NY is at 2 million cases after a complete lock down taking into account the slowest possible spread from the most extreme measures contemplated, that number of infected now is coming from a higher then expected initial base before the lock down. Whether or the lock downs actually worked or not maybe up for debate around the country. Different states locked down at different times. Different restrictions in each state. Some have only essential services, some don't. All seem to be working. Its likely the social distancing, standard precautions, hand washing, masks, etc that is having the most effect since that is probably the most consistent measure practiced across the entire US.
orthopa Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 This clearly shows virus was not wide spread in US in Jan 2020: How wide spread was it on March 11th?
orthopa Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 Lol. Please point to me where I was wrong Dick? Sure. It's pretty simple. You were saying early on that hundreds of thousands or millions of people in the USA probably had it, and that testing was pointless. Then, hundreds of thousands of people in NYC actually got it and more than 10K died, which wouldn't have happened if all those people were infected already. And the countries that have done the best have been the ones who were good at testing and tracing. That said, I have come down more harshly on you than others simply because you're dishonest, and because--if you are actually a doctor--I think that dishonesty makes you dangerous. (I would have no problem whatsoever with you if you were simply wrong and adjusted your beliefs as the evidence changed. In fact, I'd have a whole pile of respect for you, if that were the case.) I also think that anyone who makes the argument that the worst case didn't arise so the worst case scenario couldn't possibly be true--after there was a massive, month-long lockdown to prevent the worse case scenario--is either disingenuous or stupid or both. I'm trying to ask this uncontroversially mostly medical professionals here: assuming a gradual relaxation of the lockdown with no vaccine, no treatment, and no (or minimal) testing/tracking. Would you say going out is acceptable or too risky? Let's assume a medium-high risk state like MA. Let's assume not super vulnerable person. If we want to talk concrete "going out" categories, let's say going to parks, general shopping, meeting friends/family, going to office/work, going to a restaurant (I tried to order this from least risk to most risk). Outcome of "severe" infection sounds very scary. That has to be balanced with infection risks though. I know this is a bit theoretical and uncertain, but since there's a talk of "relaxation" even in NY state, maybe this could be useful. I could open a new topic... but probably not worth it. Thanks Today, yes, I think the risk is acceptable, based on general reports of curve flattening and general lack of overwhelmed local ERs and ICUs. The "re-opening" of local economies should be conditional on: 1. universal mask usage 2. maintaining 6-ft social distancing 3. no large crowds This can allow many businesses, restaurants, maybe some schools to re-open. The decision regarding timing, pace, and extent of re-opening will be left to state governors and local authorities, who can fine-tune the above conditions, based on local factors. If a surge of serious cases start to show up in ERs and ICUs, they'll have to clamp down again. The federal government level can mostly give permission to states and localities to open up around April 30 (maybe even before), when they feel ready. They can veto crazy decisions that might happen in some regional southern areas, such as large church services, movie theaters, sports arenas. As you say, there is no good medical treatment/vaccine, and testing has been disappointing. (Whenever you rush out with new tests for a new disease, being unable to evaluate accuracy and reliability systematically, we really can't trust the results.) But you don't need testing or treatment in new pandemics, since the only effective measure is various levels of quarantine and travel restrictions. (If South Korea had no testing but had only lockdowns, they would have still been fine.) Today, I think the risk of economic recession/depression (deaths, suicides, depressions, lack of confidence in authorities) is greater than the risk of swamping the medical system, especially if the heavy lockdown extends beyond April 30. I think this feeling is widespread, and is percolating from the bottom-up. Any heavy handed top-down governmental restrictions will be answered by spontaneous bottom-up rebellion - so in a way, I think your question is moot. Improvement in testing should go on, but their utility will primarily be in retrospective analysis for future outbreaks. We don't need precise knowledge from test results to know what to do now (again, the only thing to do is isolation with masks and some form of quarantine). And even if a vaccine is developed, I don't have confidence that it will be effective or safe enough, especially if it comes earlier rather than later. You must have missed this post by cobafdek right before yours. My assumption is you think he/she is a dishonest doctor too. We will in time see if 100's of thousands or millions had it.
RichardGibbons Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 At the risk of sounding misanthropic: I think the lesson here is that, this WILL happen again (could be next year, next decade, next century - but viruses do not go away) ; and we will NOT be prepared, we will not learn from this, and to think otherwise is to grossly overestimate the ability for a bunch of tribal nations and populist leaders to "do what is right". Look at China and the US to see what the world powers are doing: totalitarian misinformation vs. egotistical misinformation. Nonsense all around. This is a really great point, but for some reason I'm still hopeful. I think a few good leaders could reverse this trend. Trump and most Republicans have abandoned good faith efforts to rule, but I still believe that people in aggregate are intrinsically good, and most people who get into politics really do want to do what they believe is best for the country. The only question is whether this phase in USA politics is a short-term thing, or if the system has been broken to the point where it's impossible for good leaders to be elected. If the latter, then I'd expect to see American power to continue to plummet in the world, as it drives away its allies and its anti-science/anti-education mentality dramatically weakens the country's competitive position. Just as happened with the Soviet Union, I think it's very hard to sustain (for much more than a century) a system whose values don't match reality. But I still think it's more likely that USA will pull out of this descent and remain a superpower. (Or that the blue states separate and become the new superpower, producing 2/3rds of the USA GDP--effectively the same thing. Secession isn't likely today, but after a few elections where the majority is repeatedly thwarted through tricks like voter suppression and gerrymandering, I think it becomes more likely.)
orthopa Posted April 16, 2020 Posted April 16, 2020 I'm trying to ask this uncontroversially mostly medical professionals here: assuming a gradual relaxation of the lockdown with no vaccine, no treatment, and no (or minimal) testing/tracking. Would you say going out is acceptable or too risky? Let's assume a medium-high risk state like MA. Let's assume not super vulnerable person. If we want to talk concrete "going out" categories, let's say going to parks, general shopping, meeting friends/family, going to office/work, going to a restaurant (I tried to order this from least risk to most risk). Outcome of "severe" infection sounds very scary. That has to be balanced with infection risks though. I know this is a bit theoretical and uncertain, but since there's a talk of "relaxation" even in NY state, maybe this could be useful. I could open a new topic... but probably not worth it. Thanks Today, yes, I think the risk is acceptable, based on general reports of curve flattening and general lack of overwhelmed local ERs and ICUs. The "re-opening" of local economies should be conditional on: 1. universal mask usage 2. maintaining 6-ft social distancing 3. no large crowds This can allow many businesses, restaurants, maybe some schools to re-open. The decision regarding timing, pace, and extent of re-opening will be left to state governors and local authorities, who can fine-tune the above conditions, based on local factors. If a surge of serious cases start to show up in ERs and ICUs, they'll have to clamp down again. The federal government level can mostly give permission to states and localities to open up around April 30 (maybe even before), when they feel ready. They can veto crazy decisions that might happen in some regional southern areas, such as large church services, movie theaters, sports arenas. As you say, there is no good medical treatment/vaccine, and testing has been disappointing. (Whenever you rush out with new tests for a new disease, being unable to evaluate accuracy and reliability systematically, we really can't trust the results.) But you don't need testing or treatment in new pandemics, since the only effective measure is various levels of quarantine and travel restrictions. (If South Korea had no testing but had only lockdowns, they would have still been fine.) Today, I think the risk of economic recession/depression (deaths, suicides, depressions, lack of confidence in authorities) is greater than the risk of swamping the medical system, especially if the heavy lockdown extends beyond April 30. I think this feeling is widespread, and is percolating from the bottom-up. Any heavy handed top-down governmental restrictions will be answered by spontaneous bottom-up rebellion - so in a way, I think your question is moot. Improvement in testing should go on, but their utility will primarily be in retrospective analysis for future outbreaks. We don't need precise knowledge from test results to know what to do now (again, the only thing to do is isolation with masks and some form of quarantine). And even if a vaccine is developed, I don't have confidence that it will be effective or safe enough, especially if it comes earlier rather than later. +1 If once testing becomes available by all means get tested to see if you have antibodies right? Already being exposed verified with an eventual reliable test will relieve a lot of concerns. Wear a mask as the virus typically enters through mouth/nose. Wearing goggles may not be the most fashionable but glasses should help if want to be extra vigilant. As cobafdek says worst case if you do need ICU care it likely will be more available. I cant help but think if you are of the genetic make up (obesity, CVD, CA, DM) or have medical conditions that put you at risk your at risk regardless. How would you (hypothetical you) plan to out run this for 12-18-24 months? If your medical make up predestines you to a severe case with this virus that will be the case now, in July, Sept, Dec etc. Losing weight, stopping smoking, vaping, getting cholesterol down may go a long way to helping with comorbidities too which outside of getting the virus puts you most at risk. Cant change your age though.
RichardGibbons Posted April 16, 2020 Posted April 16, 2020 You must have missed this post by cobafdek right before yours. My assumption is you think he/she is a dishonest doctor too. Nah, your assumption is wrong. As far as I can tell, cobafdek is thoughtful and smart, and has a high degree of integrity.
Spekulatius Posted April 16, 2020 Posted April 16, 2020 I'm trying to ask this uncontroversially mostly medical professionals here: assuming a gradual relaxation of the lockdown with no vaccine, no treatment, and no (or minimal) testing/tracking. Would you say going out is acceptable or too risky? Let's assume a medium-high risk state like MA. Let's assume not super vulnerable person. If we want to talk concrete "going out" categories, let's say going to parks, general shopping, meeting friends/family, going to office/work, going to a restaurant (I tried to order this from least risk to most risk). Outcome of "severe" infection sounds very scary. That has to be balanced with infection risks though. I know this is a bit theoretical and uncertain, but since there's a talk of "relaxation" even in NY state, maybe this could be useful. I could open a new topic... but probably not worth it. Thanks Today, yes, I think the risk is acceptable, based on general reports of curve flattening and general lack of overwhelmed local ERs and ICUs. The "re-opening" of local economies should be conditional on: 1. universal mask usage 2. maintaining 6-ft social distancing 3. no large crowds This can allow many businesses, restaurants, maybe some schools to re-open. The decision regarding timing, pace, and extent of re-opening will be left to state governors and local authorities, who can fine-tune the above conditions, based on local factors. If a surge of serious cases start to show up in ERs and ICUs, they'll have to clamp down again. The federal government level can mostly give permission to states and localities to open up around April 30 (maybe even before), when they feel ready. They can veto crazy decisions that might happen in some regional southern areas, such as large church services, movie theaters, sports arenas. As you say, there is no good medical treatment/vaccine, and testing has been disappointing. (Whenever you rush out with new tests for a new disease, being unable to evaluate accuracy and reliability systematically, we really can't trust the results.) But you don't need testing or treatment in new pandemics, since the only effective measure is various levels of quarantine and travel restrictions. (If South Korea had no testing but had only lockdowns, they would have still been fine.) Today, I think the risk of economic recession/depression (deaths, suicides, depressions, lack of confidence in authorities) is greater than the risk of swamping the medical system, especially if the heavy lockdown extends beyond April 30. I think this feeling is widespread, and is percolating from the bottom-up. Any heavy handed top-down governmental restrictions will be answered by spontaneous bottom-up rebellion - so in a way, I think your question is moot. Improvement in testing should go on, but their utility will primarily be in retrospective analysis for future outbreaks. We don't need precise knowledge from test results to know what to do now (again, the only thing to do is isolation with masks and some form of quarantine). And even if a vaccine is developed, I don't have confidence that it will be effective or safe enough, especially if it comes earlier rather than later. I agree at most people will get tired of this lockdown. I believe the economy will have to be opened up in May, possibly in baby steps. One concern I have is that you can’t really open up the economy without opening up the schools,which isn’t exactly a baby step. Perhaps open up kinder gartens first, then middle schools etc. This would still take a lot of time and I incur quite a bit of risk. Without schools being open, parents with kids are screwed. Then,what you describe interns of going out with mask, social distancing ET still doesn’t really help any service business like restaurants, hairdressers, bars, sports venues etc. Maybe they could operate,but at much reduced capacity. There is another can of worm with liabilities. What happens when there is an outbreak that can be traced at a business. Trial lawyers will go after this, show that some protocols weren’t followed and here we go with huge number of lawsuits. I don’t think it will be possible to buy insurance for this unless the government creates one.
Cigarbutt Posted April 16, 2020 Posted April 16, 2020 I'm trying to ask this uncontroversially mostly medical professionals here: assuming a gradual relaxation of the lockdown with no vaccine, no treatment, and no (or minimal) testing/tracking. Would you say going out is acceptable or too risky? Let's assume a medium-high risk state like MA. Let's assume not super vulnerable person. If we want to talk concrete "going out" categories, let's say going to parks, general shopping, meeting friends/family, going to office/work, going to a restaurant (I tried to order this from least risk to most risk). Outcome of "severe" infection sounds very scary. That has to be balanced with infection risks though. I know this is a bit theoretical and uncertain, but since there's a talk of "relaxation" even in NY state, maybe this could be useful. I could open a new topic... but probably not worth it. Thanks Complement to Cobafdek, in the middle of the (tribal) fight. Your question is difficult to answer (it feels like: What's the risk of shorting Tesla stock?) and it includes the evaluation of tail risk. Since my background has some relevance and since i need to address this question now, here's a tentative answer. It seems that the opening will be gradual and the rate of opening will be inversely proportional to virus resurgence. So you'll need to adjust your risk management for your area and with the evolving picture. I work with a scenario of localized and limited resurgence activity during the opening with no second or third wave although this could become low-grade seasonal. I'd say testing will be useful for certain areas of concern but it's hard to see how testing at large will be useful for local decisions. I would also add that herd immunity is not a black or white concept. Relative herd immunity may be much lower than the often 60-70% quoted. 1st risk: risk that you become a spreader without being sick This is a population-level risk but also an individual risk as you may bring the disease to loved ones who may be susceptible (known risk factors or even rarely idiosyncratic). Then, your cumulative (i share DocSnowball's realism about molecules and timeline) individual risk is likely lowish (and will evolve over a fairly long time), especially if you take basic precautions (basic distance, washing hands, and avoiding social contacts with older (or frail) friends or family members). The concept of position sizing (extent of your social participation along the activity risk spectrum you describe) could be applied as a degree of conviction that your area is safe (from publicly announced statistics, hospital activity level etc). 2nd risk: risk that you become significantly sick Apart from idiosyncratic risk, which is very low, your risk will be proportional to risk factors (age, lung disease, obesity, diabetes etc) with individual risk factors being likely more than additive and serious event risk going up exponentially with the overall level of frailty. Assuming not super vulnerable means no major risk factors, it seems that your risk of becoming significantly sick is very low (do your own work :) ). What you do as an individual is also tied to your risk personality. If you used to go for the flu vaccine every year versus not even worrying about becoming sick will have an influence on future behavior vs CV. It's possible CV becomes old news very rapidly especially if other events take eyeballs off the bug (and its consequences).
ERICOPOLY Posted April 16, 2020 Posted April 16, 2020 Without schools being open, parents with kids are screwed. How many of these parents take the summer off when their kids don't have school?
beerbaron Posted April 16, 2020 Posted April 16, 2020 Allright, I was having a beer an playing with numbers. I saw that somewhere in Israel they were actually doing group testing instead of individual ones. Basically they had 64 persons spit and then if the group was positive they would test 32, etc... I tough it was an interesting concept, just like a DB works you can find a value much quicker by splitting the pile in halves over and over again. I then went to take Quebec numbers (I live there). Assuming there is 0.3% of the population that has Covid, you don't want the group to be so large that 100% will test positive but you don't want the group so small that it's a waste of resources. If I want about 25% of the initial test to turn out positive, how big should I make the initial group test? Well it turns out it's about 8000. For a population of 8M that is 1 000 tests (Quebec has a capacity of 12K/ test per day). So easily we can test all groups of 8000 on day 1, the next day, the groups that turned positive are split into 4 and so on. Within 11 days we would have tested 8M people, found out the individuals, and we could repeat the process again. 22 days and we would be done with it. Quebec has a capacity of 12K tests per day, so that would not even interfere with the screening of the symptomatic persons. Besides scaling 8000 persons per group what else am I missing here? BeerBaron
meiroy Posted April 16, 2020 Posted April 16, 2020 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-16/south-korea-plans-emergency-handouts-to-households-hit-by-virus?utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic "The amount is larger than the 7.1 trillion won initially planned, underscoring the government’s determination to offer relief to households. The handouts will be distributed to 14.8 million middle and lower-income households via electronic cash, gift certificates, and other methods,"
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