Pelagic Posted January 3 Posted January 3 Looks like around 400,000 bbl/d will come back fairly quickly if the blockade is now over. Remember that as recently as 10 years ago Vz was doing 2.5MM bbl/d. How long it takes to get back to that point is anyone's guess but it could be a lot quicker than anyone expects if the situation there stabilizes and Machado assumes the presidency. https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/2007440655824441460?s=20
SharperDingaan Posted January 3 Posted January 3 (edited) Time horizon matters here. Over the near term most would expect higher crude prices, after the heavy oil from seized VZ tankers has been dumped onto the market. While the threat of a dump will be held over Canadian suppliers, resolution would most likely be a temporary diversion of Canadian supply into inventory, to force the dump. The US doesn't have the heavy oil inventory, and once that seized VZ heavy has gone ... good for Canada over the near term. Today, the mystery is how the rest of the world treats this head of state extradition, that is an act of war. Can Putin now execute a similar head of state extradition/assassination on the Ukrainian Zelensky? Can Xi Jingping now execute a similar head of state extradition/assassination on the Taiwanese Lai Ching-te? Can Netayahu now execute a similar head of state extradition/assassination on the Iranian Khamenei? Can the world now execute a similar head of state extradition/assassination of Putin or Trump? Any one of these, will raise volatility in a big way. Most would now expect a coup, and opposition sabotage of export facilities that makes VZ impossible to govern. The reality is that it will take years vs months to sustainably raise heavy oil exports, and given the ongoing uncertainty ... whatever is sold will go at a discount to spot. Again, good for Canada over the near term. If you already have o/g, good for you , but if WTI goes much above USD 61-62 .... it might be wise to sell down and buy back later. If you're looking to get into o/g, come back later once answers are apparent. Long term nothing really changes other than the safe supply premium getting a little larger. SD Edited January 3 by SharperDingaan
bizaro86 Posted January 3 Posted January 3 1 hour ago, shhughes1116 said: +1 If Venezuelan crude comes back to the market in significant quantities, it would end up in Padd 3 and likely displace Canadian crude. The current direction of pipelines would make it hard for Venezuelan crude to be refined in other geographic areas, so padd 2 and padd 4 would continue to be the primary destination for Canadian crude. All of this probably leads to small drop in WTI, and a more considerable widening of the WTI-WCS differential - negative for Canadian oil producers and especially the oil sands producers. I completely agree Venezuela could back out all the Canadian heavy out of PADD 3. But that's only 432 kbbl/d (last 6 months as per EIA), already down from over 600k bbl/d a few years ago, even with significant Canadian production growth in that time. Exports to PADD 5 and Asia (both via TMX) have picked up the slack, while PADD 2 has remained the big destination (~2.9MMbbl/d) PADD 2 refiners are a captive customer - that's why they made so much noise about a tarriff on Canadian energy. They/their customers would have had to pay it. As you note their really isn't a way for Venezuelan barrels to go from the Gulf Coast up to PADD 2. As long as Canada has a home for marginal barrels past PADD 2 demand WCS spreads will remain reasonable. So if Venezuelan heavy backs Canada out of PADD 3 the producers need to find a new home for about 420 kbbl/d. There's about 120k bbl/d spare capacity on TMX so some could go to Asia. TMX could be optimized to add that capacity (more pumping stations), but it'll depend on political will in Canada.
SharperDingaan Posted January 3 Posted January 3 Oil Markets Brace for Supply Squeeze After U.S. Captures Nicolás Maduro https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Markets-Brace-for-Supply-Squeeze-After-US-Captures-Nicols-Maduro.html SD
fareastwarriors Posted January 3 Posted January 3 How Kazakhstan Aims to Tap More Oil Riches Below Its Grassy Plains
Dalal.Holdings Posted January 3 Posted January 3 On 11/10/2025 at 9:56 AM, Dalal.Holdings said: https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/07/trump-maduro-venezuela-democracy-intervention/ https://www.latintimes.com/maduro-reportedly-open-leaving-venezuela-exchange-amnesty-comfortable-exile-report-591357 If the U.S. achieves a smooth regime change in Venezuela (the rightful ruler/Nobel Peace Price winner would take over), what does that mean for oil supply in the medium term? My guess is probably more downward pressure on oil prices... Chevron would probably be back in a heartbeat... https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/chevron-terminates-contracts-will-keep-staff-venezuela-sources-say-2025-05-28/ In fact, I think this prospect is probably a key reason Venezuela is drawing so much attention from Trump...
SharperDingaan Posted January 3 Posted January 3 (edited) 4 hours ago, willypoo said: Any views on how this might affect condensate? Not our wheelhouse, but I would expect outcome will depend heavily upon whether TMX/rail is used to divert product from PADD 3. Higher throughput requiring more diluent, raising the demand for condensate, etc. Offset against rising LNG exports going through Kitimat, and a higher supply of associated condensate from wet wells. SD Edited January 3 by SharperDingaan
Dalal.Holdings Posted January 4 Posted January 4 Still laughing at the energy bros who thought this guy would be good for their oil stonks https://www.nbcnews.com/business/energy/us-will-look-tap-venezuelan-oil-reserves-trump-says-rcna252054 Quote “We’ll be selling large amounts of oil to other countries,” Trump said when he was asked how controlling Venezuela’s energy supply could impact relations with China, Russia and Iran. “We’re in the oil business. We’re going to sell it to them.”
Intelligent_Investor Posted January 5 Posted January 5 This was never about oil to America, it was about cutting China's oil supply. VZ supplies lots of oil to China
Dalal.Holdings Posted January 5 Posted January 5 The thing about socialists is that they are just not very competent. In fact, they simply don't believe in rewarding competence or merit.
Dalal.Holdings Posted January 6 Posted January 6 This is pretty funny. A lot of VZ's oil reserves are probably made up by Chavez-Maduro regime. Ironically, the made up reserves probably at least partially contributed to U.S. capturing Maduro ...
Dalal.Holdings Posted January 8 Posted January 8 https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/trump-venezuela-oil-us-control-plan-265a39c1 Quote President Trump and his advisers are planning a sweeping initiative to dominate the Venezuelan oil industry for years to come, and the president has told aides he believes his efforts could help lower oil prices to his favored level of $50 a barrel, according to people familiar with the matter. Looool
Dalal.Holdings Posted January 9 Posted January 9 Sorry, oil boys. Someone has to swallow all those Chinese EVs...
Spekulatius Posted January 10 Posted January 10 On 1/8/2026 at 11:04 AM, Dalal.Holdings said: https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/trump-venezuela-oil-us-control-plan-265a39c1 Looool I don’t think Venzuelan crude works at $50 barrel economically which is a bit like a catch 22.
Dalal.Holdings Posted January 11 Posted January 11 Even U.S. gasoline use looks like it has peaked... Also there's a chance the regime in Iran falls. So many reasons to avoid oil.
coffeecaninvestor Posted January 11 Posted January 11 Makes me scratch my head why Buffett is still adding to CVX and OXY in Q1&2. I took a look at CVX/XOM and it’s hard to get excited about them without higher oil which looks improbable. I was listening to a podcast and the guy was going big into oil stocks partly because they are hated but as a political hedge. I don’t know it just seems like oil has too much working against it.
SharperDingaan Posted January 11 Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, coffeecaninvestor said: I was listening to a podcast and the guy was going big into oil stocks partly because they are hated but as a political hedge. I don’t know it just seems like oil has too much working against it. The podcaster is right. The reality is that while a great many can quote WEBs 'buy when there is blood in the streets', very few can actually do it. Should Iran collapse tomorrow, its oil will still flow ... but at world price, vs sanctioned price, and to mostly the same buyers. SD
Spekulatius Posted January 11 Posted January 11 5 hours ago, SharperDingaan said: The podcaster is right. The reality is that while a great many can quote WEBs 'buy when there is blood in the streets', very few can actually do it. Should Iran collapse tomorrow, its oil will still flow ... but at world price, vs sanctioned price, and to mostly the same buyers. SD WEB does not buy either when there is blood on the streets. Maybe he never sees enough blood, he needs to be a massacre and those are rare.
Stuart D Posted January 11 Posted January 11 But is there blood in the streets in terms of valuation? $XOM’s trading north of half a trillion dollars. Oil is down at $60 and XOM’s market cap is higher than when oil was >$100.
Dalal.Holdings Posted January 12 Posted January 12 9 hours ago, SharperDingaan said: The podcaster is right. The reality is that while a great many can quote WEBs 'buy when there is blood in the streets', very few can actually do it. Should Iran collapse tomorrow, its oil will still flow ... but at world price, vs sanctioned price, and to mostly the same buyers. SD 9 hours ago, coffeecaninvestor said: Makes me scratch my head why Buffett is still adding to CVX and OXY in Q1&2. I took a look at CVX/XOM and it’s hard to get excited about them without higher oil which looks improbable. I was listening to a podcast and the guy was going big into oil stocks partly because they are hated but as a political hedge. I don’t know it just seems like oil has too much working against it. WEB has bought when there was blood in the streets: when OXY was in trouble, he got a sweet preferred stock deal that he continues to reap from to this day. When Oxy needed liquidity again, he got OxyChem at a steal. Stop pretending Buffett is merely buying OXY common stock like the retail investors. Warren has made off much better than OXY common shareholders
Dalal.Holdings Posted January 12 Posted January 12 The crazy thing about oil is that if you buy merely when there is "blood in the streets", you could still be in for a decade more of bleeding. The commodity has historically had multi-decade periods where the returns were horrible. And the other thing is -- I would not call today "blood in the streets". Has any even independent/small oil company gone bankrupt? Hell, even SOC is limping along able to do an equity raise recently. Where exactly is this "blood in the streets" that @SharperDingaan is talking about? I have yet to see real pain in the sector
Dalal.Holdings Posted January 12 Posted January 12 26 minutes ago, Stuart D said: But is there blood in the streets in terms of valuation? $XOM’s trading north of half a trillion dollars. Oil is down at $60 and XOM’s market cap is higher than when oil was >$100. Exactly. No "blood in the streets" to be found.
SharperDingaan Posted January 12 Posted January 12 Don't do the research .... deserve what you get . Within the WCSB, there have been quite a few transactions that say otherwise; the Strathcona Energy acquisition MEG being a more recent example. Acquisitions by people who actually run o/g companies, not tourists merely holding paper and hoping a quick flip. SD
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