CoBF members 2018 returns

[Viking]

Finished the year at -3.7%; first negative year in last 15. Not a great year to be way overweight US banks. Could have been much worse. The silver lining is there are many well run and profitable companies trading at what look to be very readonable valuations (which bodes well for 2019 returns).

 

My big learning is to pay a little more attention to where we are in the economic cycle and modify my portfolio accordingly. My guess is the volatility we saw in 2018 will continue into 2019. The big changes are:

1.) on strength (when market gets optomistic) build cash

2.) on weakness (when market gets pessimistic) buy best in class large caps

[John Hjorth]

... Since my core holdings are now much cheaper than they were before, i actually feel much richer than I was, since I now have more upside and less downside on those holdings.

... Either I'm more wrong than usual or I should have a great 2019.

 

rolling & flesh,

 

You are mentally faithful to yourselves [never forget that!] - I certainly hope it stays that way! -I feel confident, that you'll do great going forward!

[DanielGMask]

+0.20% before dividends.

[Gamecock-YT]

-15.5% took a hit with commodity/energy stocks turning over in 2H18. Only positions liquidated were ASFI after the special dividend and some short term bond ETFs which I used to add to my commodity positions during the declines. Current equity allocation is 37% cable, 37% commodities (non energy), 23% energy, 3% financials. Still sitting on ~55% cash and short term treasuries.

 

 

2017: 35.0%

2016: 17.3%

 

[SHDL]

For the last 5 years (USD, pre-tax, including both stocks and bonds and derivatives):

 

2018:  -15%

2017:  +75%

2016:  +43%

2015:  -7%

2014:  +19%

 

This was actually the first time I bothered aggregating across investment accounts.  Statistically speaking, I guess this is what a finance professor would deride as a “no alpha, crazy high beta portfolio.” 

 

Anyway, 2018 went like this.  I entered the year with a few big positions I bought in previous years that had done very well and no longer seemed undervalued.  I didn’t sell, and watched them go down 20-50%.  In the meantime my quantitative value trades did pretty well and softened the blow.  But it looks like I still underperformed most of you guys (especially Fat Pitch)!

[clutch]

My returns (first) are in Canadian and time-weighted. The benchmark returns (second) are for VFV.TO, which is an S&P500 index ETF in Canadian. They are also time-weighted, assuming I buy/sell VFV.TO every time I make a contribution or withdrawal. I think this method of comparison is the most accurate for me, a casual investor who is trying to see if I can beat simple indexing.

 

2018: -10.8% vs. -2.8%

2017: +6.5% vs. +10.7%

2016: +19.0% vs. +7.7%

 

cumulative: +13.0% vs. +15.9%

 

So, I'm basically underperforming. I have been trying active stock picking for about three years now. I'm giving myself two more years to outperform the index on the cumulative basis or else I will switch back to indexing!  8)

[hillfronter83]

About 3.5% for the year. Lost money on many of my long positions. At the end of the day, special situation and a couple of acquired stocks saved me from overall loss.

[John Hjorth]

My returns (first) are in Canadian and time-weighted. The benchmark returns (second) are for VFV.TO, which is an S&P500 index ETF in Canadian. They are also time-weighted, assuming I buy/sell VFV.TO every time I make a contribution or withdrawal. I think this method of comparison is the most accurate for me, a casual investor who is trying to see if I can beat simple indexing.

 

2018: -10.8% vs. -2.8%

2017: +6.5% vs. +10.7%

2016: +19.0% vs. +7.7%

 

cumulative: +13.0% vs. +15.9%

 

So, I'm basically underperforming. I have been trying active stock picking for about three years now. I'm giving myself two more years to outperform the index on the cumulative basis or else I will switch back to indexing!  8)

 

clutch,

 

There is so much to it. I've had the same thoughts about 1 - 2 years ago. I ended up leaving that line of thinking, - for good. In short, you'll have a better existence & life as an - perhaps - underperforming & stockpicking investor, than being an index investor. Where there sure is material positions in the index of your choice, that you do not like. [Which can actually be much more stressing for you [as a CoBF member] than the average investor.].

[Hielko]

Managed 13.1% in euro (probably a few percentage points lower in USD). Pretty happy with it, although I do think there were some things that I could have done better.

[investor-man]

3.4% I'm shocked frankly. Thought I'd be negative. I was up about 33% in June

[aceskc]

2014:20%

2015:-4%

2016: 39%

2017: 11%

2018: 68%

5 year CAGR: 24.3%

 

Concentration worked out very well for us in 2018, as I felt safer in our best idea in a richly priced market. Bought heavily into CMG when the stock fell around the $250 mark and took those proceeds and pilled them into BRK in the mid 180s to low 190s.

 

[orthopa]

23.5% 2018

-7.7%. 2019

 

Being long tobacco this year hurt overall returns big time but will be able to reinvest dividends and much lower prices now. Still have 14% of portfolio in GSE preferred which will hopefully really juice returns this year (fingers crossed). Otherwise has been a drag or essentially like holding cash as price hasnt moved much in years.

[Gregmal]

All combined probably somewhere mid-high teens. Don't care enough to tally everything up, never really have. To me the idea of talking about your returns on the internet is useless. It's like talking about your dick size in high school. Everyone likes to, but it only matters once you take the leap and can prove it with action.

 

Anyhow, I  typically run very concentrated and MSG, HTL had solid years. Went into year, and exited year with FRP Holdings as top 5 position, but spent 80% of the year not in the top 5, which kind of highlights the type of year it was. Trading was were one needed to be this year to really get alpha.

 

GM and CTO continue to be perpetual disappointments.

[DocSnowball]

2018: -19%

2017: 7%

2016: 192%

 

 

Antibiotic companies lost more than bitcoin in 2018, down >90% from 2016 highs despite FDA approvals in 2018 - a painful learning experience although the story is not over. Happy to be learning everyday and grateful for the CoBF learning community.

[Dynamic]

I was lucky enough to enjoy a positive year from equities alone in both GBP (a 7.65% tailwind as GBP weakened) and USD, and also to do even better with an alternative investment opportunity for which I withdrew some funds, albeit producing taxable gains that my spouse and I will each need to pay a very modest tax rate on by 31 Jan 2020, unless I end up realising a lot of losses by April 5th 2019 when the UK tax year ends. I think I was very very lucky with timing on more than one occasion and benefited from a little skill in assessing the upside versus downside potential of what to sell and what to buy to increase the quality and the Intrinsic Value of my portfolio, probably by about 10-12% more than the market value increased, while reducing the downside risks in time and being lucky enough to obtain a good cash exposure in time for the 4th quarter bear market.

 

The only tax paid so far was 30% US withholding tax on WFC, IBM and AAPL dividends within our tax-free ISA accounts in the first part of the year, as the provider doesn't support W-8BEN filing and their fees made were so much cheaper than alternative brokers that do support W-8BEN that it was a wash over the 2 years or so I held those three positions.

 

Sold WFC@$55.70 and IBM@$151.50 in early Feb 2018, realising tax-free gains but having underperformed the S&P500 Total Return (SP500TR) with both positions, luckily modest in size and bought with a bit of margin of safety. Bought BRK.B at $192.69 with new money plus the proceeds of these sales.

 

Topped up my BRK.B position slightly with more new cash in late March and early April around $195-$196, yet cheaper than the $198 paid in Dec 2017 as the pound had strengthened and dollar weakened at that stage.

 

Sold my entire AAPL position on 24th May @$188.42, realising large tax-free capital gains of about 90%. If it weren't for needing the cash to withdraw and put into the alternative opportunity, I probably would have held a bit longer before I felt the price/intrinsic value ratio for BRK.B (fairly tight IV distribution) and for AAPL (slightly fuzzier IV distribution) was clear and wide enough to convince me to overcome my 'hysteresis' and make a Value Trade from one to the other, especially with what I felt was superior downside protection but still compound growth in BRK.B, but I had been thinking about where I should make such a trade for some months, which could probably occurred either with BRK.B in the $186-$188 region in July, while AAPL was near $200, or perhaps in September with BRK.B in the high $190s and AAPL around the $220 region, which would roughly have accorded with me feeling that I was getting more IV than I was giving up by a sufficient margin to be worth making the Value Trade.

 

Also trimmed my BRK.B position to raise the remaining funds for the alternative opportunity in July/August. Realised substantial cash proceeds surprisingly quickly in time for the latest market dive, and got fully invested in the December bear market partly via some AAPL, BAC and WFC put contracts. Ended up realising modest losses on the AAPL and WFC (one was actually a tiny gain in GBP thanks to the exchange rate change in the meantime) to take advantage of particularly good prices on BRK.B lately, which saw gains to year end, and avoided the worst of the further AAPL decline. Now very slightly on margin, and exiting gradually by writing covered Calls at a range of strike prices and expiry dates, some already exercised and some due mid-January, which will either provide a good annualised return in premiums or will let me sell my excess BAC shares around the price I entered at. I might even roll the calls as they near expiry to obtain further option premium income and a higher eventual exit price, if the market moves suitably. Hat tip to boilermaker75 for the put/call writing methods of entering and trimming positions, which I feel I'm getting to grips with and benefiting from.

[Liberty]

+7.53% without dividends (haven't bothered to look at those yet).

 

Feels worse than the end-point because was up around 33% a few months ago, but that's how the market works... It goes up and down ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[clutch]

Interestingly, this year the return statistics for CoBF pretty much resembles the S&P index return, a normal distribution with the mean around -5%. I don't recall such a close resemblance in earlier years. Usually, the reported CoBF members outperformed, if I remember correctly.

[Jurgis]

For fun:

 

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/2016-results-thread/ - 2017 CoBF results (ignore the title, these are 2017 results)

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/your-returns-in-2016/ - 2016 CoBF results

 

[John Hjorth]

Good one, Jurgis! [ : - ) ]

[Liberty]

Interestingly, this year the return statistics for CoBF pretty much resembles the S&P index return, a normal distribution with the mean around -5%. I don't recall such a close resemblance in earlier years. Usually, the reported CoBF members outperformed, if I remember correctly.

 

Maybe people are just more honest now and sample bias has been reduced?

[gary17]

I believe I did about 10% - 15%

will hve to look at the math when I have time as I moved money out to pay for a few private investment ideas, moved money into wife’s rrsp and kids resp,  and then had some other funds come in so it’s quite confusing even to myself lol

 

the big winner is Xpel and Soda stream earlier in the year.  SODA is complete luck- I had been thinking about it after learning about it , and just started to build a position when they announced the buyout .  I still lost quite a bit of money from the peak because of my leveraged position in BAC.

 

As I noted to my family... it’s nice to have first world problems to worry about (% return).  happy new year everyone.

[WneverLOSE]

-7.3% Time Weighted Return (USD), I bought a lot of things just before the indices started to go down by 20%. I am going to add around 10% of cash I was holding to a new position, hopefully my holdings bought back a lot of stock and helped me dollar cost average along the way down (about -30% down from inter-year highs).

 

I am actually happy with the year, it is the first down year for me (started investing only a few years ago) and I was impressed by my psychology, I still like the companies I hold, I know I will make money in the long term and I am not frozen in panic like lots of people I know when facing stocks that are getting more and more attractive by the day. unlike many other players in the market I actually hope it will keep going down, I am a net buyer with 60+ years (hopefully  ;D) to go, low prices are a blessing for someone like me.

[Spekulatius]

Looks like I am down 5-6% overall. It did feel much worse than that.

[perulv]

I ended the year down 30% in 2018. Perhaps a concentrated portfolio can take some of the blame (I was up 49% in 2017), but I also made som really stupid mistakes the first half of 2018. In an effort to hedge against currency-changes (my local currency vs Dollar), I bought an highly leveraged ETF, which was not even USD <--> NOK (my local currency), but USD <--> SEK. Half way trough 2018 USD <--> NOK was the same as the start of the year, but I'd lost around 5% of my portfolios value on this. This was a mistake I could have avoided, had I thought it trough, and actually did some math.

 

Most of the loss however, is simply stock prices going down. When I evaluate the companies that I own, I still see quality companies at cheap(er) prices. I will hold these positions, and hopefully add to them at some point.

 

Perhaps the only "right" thing I did in 2018, was to be skeptical of the high valuations of the market. I did to some extent act on it, by converting a small part of my pension savings (similar to a 401k I guess?) to interest-rate funds/instruments, and stop buying stocks in september (So the actual loss is a bit better than the -30% suggests) .  I guess my new year's resolution should be to not get paralyzed, not try to "time the bottom", but take my time to think before acting (reminds me of this great list).

[james22]

~3%

 

Held lots of Stable Value and preferreds (BAC/WFC-L) until recently when bought into fallen SV and EM and added to BRK and BAM.

 

Like rolling, I feel richer now for having made the swap, but still waiting for a real opportunity.