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WneverLOSE

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  1. As I expected, nothing about controversial stuff like record margin loans by investors, the gamification of investing by brokerages, retail frenzy, SPACs, questionable business models, market valuation, how much gamestop he owns ::) etc.
  2. I'm trying to understand the power of Berkshire float, I have a basic understanding of how it helps, if investor A has 100$ invested at 10% at the end of the year he will make 10$ (or 10%) and if investor B has 100$ and he gets 20$ from a friend who tells him "Hold this money for me for a year and I will pay you 1$ for it" he has 120$ to invest and he earned 13$ that year (12$ with a 10% return and 1$ from "underwriting profit") for a 30% advantage due to float. But in the real world things are not so simple, in order to get float you have to have some of the 100$ invested in the operation of getting float, you have to buy a building, office chairs, computers and so on in order to generate this float and underwriting profit, so if you invest out of the original 100$ something like 30$ to generate 20$ of float you only have 90$ to invest so I was wondering if someone here can walk me through Berkshires historical numbers and how much capital is invested in the insurance businesses in order to generate how much float and how much "leverage" that float generated for Berkshire.
  3. Dumb investor here, Can I buy oil futures using a discount broker ? what happens if I don't sell it ? will I get a barrel with my name on it in Cushing Oklahoma I can take home ? Why wouldn't everyone do it and store the oil in their back yard and flip it for 20$ next month for a 40x return in a month ?
  4. mhdousa thanks for informing us, we really appreciate it. I wish him health and a strong comeback in the future. Really sobering to think about how fragile things are, a great money manger I looked up to for years is having medical issues and the CFO of a common investment we share (JEF) has died from COVID-19 :'(
  5. It would be nice if someone can link info why they think he blew up his fund (Nothing in Google I could find) or that he has medical problems. I can see that the website is down but there are no SEC fillings since the 13F was filled. It doesn't make any sense if he blew up his fund to transfer LPs to Brave Warrior (since all the money is gone...) I have seen a post on reddit from 5 months ago claiming he had a ski accident but he was active since then so I don't think it has anything to do with it (or if it is even true...) I like his letters and have followed some of his investments, did well on some and really bad on others but I didn't blow up and my performance is much worse than his (so only leverage is an option but I remember he said on one of his letters that he only used it during the panic and I thought he didn't use it anymore)
  6. It would really be a shame if they (i.e me as a shareholder) held those hedges for so many years with such great cost to shareholders and we get deflation as soon as those hedges expire
  7. Interesting to me is that out of the thousands of investment professionals that would kill to be in her position Buffett chose her out of school at the age of 25 (my current age 8)) Interview with her from 2018 : One day this forum will have to be called Corner of Berkshire, Fairfax, Boston-Omaha & Tracy Co. with all the new mini Berkshires around
  8. If I can jump in with a question, why should investors ignore real estate depreciation ? (When they use FFO as replacement to net income) Buildings and parking lots also get old, crumble and need design changes to keep them looking attractive and serve changing needs...
  9. How do you get the performance number ? I thought just by looking at the positions that it might be more like -10%.
  10. Question : When a company issues stock options they expense the cost of the options to arrive at the net income figure. but the cost is only a forecast, they calculate the cost using the black scholes model. lets say the options are for 3 years, and were given at the first year. during that year the net income figure took into account the value of the options at the time, but by year 3 the stock did so well the options are worth much more. so during the first year the net income figure shown to investors was too high. What happens on year 3 ? The company get the value of the options it issued and in exchange buys the appropriate amount of stock on the market and flips it to the employees (buying it at a premium) so net the company cash outflow was bigger than the inflow from the options. (employees got paid much more that what initially thought, thus leaving less for shareholders) by my best understanding the income statement doesn't recognize that shareholders wealth was lost by that. How does one calculate the true earnings if a company stock keeps rising by so diverting income from shareholders to employees ?
  11. Any way to listen to the conference call without actually calling the number for a playback ? Not only it is very expensive to overseas investors but it is very inconvenient to sit for an hour on the phone. am I missing something or is fairfax basically the only company that doesn't provide a transcript / playback on their website ?
  12. -7.3% Time Weighted Return (USD), I bought a lot of things just before the indices started to go down by 20%. I am going to add around 10% of cash I was holding to a new position, hopefully my holdings bought back a lot of stock and helped me dollar cost average along the way down (about -30% down from inter-year highs). I am actually happy with the year, it is the first down year for me (started investing only a few years ago) and I was impressed by my psychology, I still like the companies I hold, I know I will make money in the long term and I am not frozen in panic like lots of people I know when facing stocks that are getting more and more attractive by the day. unlike many other players in the market I actually hope it will keep going down, I am a net buyer with 60+ years (hopefully ;D) to go, low prices are a blessing for someone like me.
  13. I had 10% cash heading into this relentless selloff, timing the market is not my thing I guess. The way I think about it is if stocks don't drop too much I made a good decision staying, if they drop by 50% more that 10% will buy me as much as 25% cash would buy me just a few months ago. about 70% of my net worth (which is concentrated among 5 holdings) are potential massive acquirers of stock (have good balance sheets, are cheap and indicated they are going to buy a lot of stock). This makes it a flow through dollar cost average for me. The real dumb thing is that for years I was really worried about the future returns of every investment I considered so for most of that time I had about 50% of my net worth in cash and "uncorrelated investments" (Arbitrage). Just a few months before the current selloff started I found a stock I thought was cheap enough and made it a 30% of my portfolio, I wish I have waited and bought it for a 30% discount current buyers get... :'( heck, if stocks drop 50% more the current plan is to put that 10% into the longest call options I can find on my holdings and go big or go home. 8)
  14. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/30/warren-buffett-reportedly-offered-uber-3-billion-investment-but-talks-crumbled.html Interesting that he confirms the talks, now if he doesn't confirm or comment on other roamers he is basically denying them
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