Elon Musk...human? - Political

[Spekulatius]

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

55 minutes ago, Viking said:

I don’t think most American’s understand the damage that Trump and his crew are doing to the American brand outside of the US. And Trump is just getting started. It will be punch after punch after punch… People in the rest of the world will respond - they will learn to despise America/Americans as they never have before.
 

Needless to say, that will not be good for US companies doing business in the rest of the world. Something like +30% of revenue from S&P500 companies come from outside of the US. That will likely be moving lower in the coming years.

 

I have a coworker who swears my general statement that "tariffs are bad for all parties involved" is first order thinking and obviously overlooks that potential that tariffs can go lower in response to higher tariffs. 

 

He says my model of "tariffs are bad" is far to simplistic ...while entirely ignoring the second order thinking of what it is to be an unreliable trade partner, and unreliable military partner, and unreliable ally. Especially is it relates to the issuer of the world reserve currency which depends entirely upon those things...

 

Maybe my approach is too generalized - but so far has proven true. And maybe what he views as second order thinking is just first order thinking when compared to other larger topics being the dominant military power and economy. 

 

 

52 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

 

 

The same man who didn't know people used to the term 'groceries' doesn't know how much cars cost? Yup. That tracks. The 'billionaire' savior of the common man!

Edited 22 hours ago by TwoCitiesCapital

[lnofeisone]

1 hour ago, Milu said:

As I’ve said previously I would encourage people to use a bit of sense when predicting the end for Tesla. In 2024 the company sold about 1.8m vehicles. They are currently transitioning the model y which is their largest selling vehicle and the worlds largest selling vehicle from its previous version to an updated model. This is being carried out from January to April/may and is occurring across multiple geographies, china in Jan/feb, US and Europe at the moment. It’s possible that some (but not all) of this drop in sales is down to this similar to if Apple was releasing a new version of the MacBook it’s likely they would experience a slowdown in sales of the existing model as people await the chance to buy the new iteration. So for the people predicting 50% drop in sales is your assessment that for calendar year 2025 Tesla total sales will go from 1.8m(2024 numbers) to around 900k, or if not what are you forecasting?

Your argument is likely correct for Model Y but fails to account for Model 3 also getting destroyed on sales. 

 

I don't think this is the end of Tesla. Tesla sales will stay impaired until Musk departs the company (even if he retains significant ownership) or until they offer substantial discounts.

 

Some people overlook that failure to sell cars really hammers Tesla. Each unsold car hits their bottom line twice. Once for car profit and then with the inability to produce and sell a credit. Europe also extended their emission goals to 3 years instead of 1, another small cut for Tesla. Tesla's numbers in the next few quarters will be mighty ugly. 

 

 

[Charlie]

Ray Dalio on the Trade War

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ray-dalio-cites-1930s-germany-031234228.html

 

 

Cheers!

[Sweet]

5 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

 

Sales at Tesla must be fairly poor for this to be happening.  I’m not sure it will have the intended effect.

 

The best thing for Tesla might be for Musk and Trump to have a very public falling out lol.

[Milu]

6 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

Your argument is likely correct for Model Y but fails to account for Model 3 also getting destroyed on sales. 

 

I don't think this is the end of Tesla. Tesla sales will stay impaired until Musk departs the company (even if he retains significant ownership) or until they offer substantial discounts.

 

Some people overlook that failure to sell cars really hammers Tesla. Each unsold car hits their bottom line twice. Once for car profit and then with the inability to produce and sell a credit. Europe also extended their emission goals to 3 years instead of 1, another small cut for Tesla. Tesla's numbers in the next few quarters will be mighty ugly. 

 

 

Ya that’s a fair point, I’m not sure what the breakdown is of model 3 sales vs model y is so can’t quite confirm how much they are falling off the cliff. My personal feeling is that all this negativity will result in perhaps a 10% drop in sales this year so going from 1.8m to something over 1.6m vehicles sold. I’d start to worry about some serious brand impairment if it comes in below that. I think q1 could be quite weak though based upon on the negativity and the model y changeover but feel that there could be a better set of results in 2nd half of year. 

Edited 15 hours ago by Milu

[John Hjorth]

12 hours ago, Viking said:

I don’t think most American’s understand the damage that Trump and his crew are doing to the American brand outside of the US. And Trump is just getting started. It will be punch after punch after punch… People in the rest of the world will respond - they will learn to despise America/Americans as they never have before.
 

Needless to say, that will not be good for US companies doing business in the rest of the world. Something like +30% of revenue from S&P500 companies come from outside of the US. That will likely be moving lower in the coming years.
 

All countries will be looking to decouple from the US wherever they can and as fast as they can (well, if they are smart they will). Because extortionists don’t stop… they keep coming back for more. 
 

My guess is fewer foreigners will be vacationing in the US. (My wife - who is not overly political -  informed me recently that we will not be taking out annual vacation is the US this year.). And Americans vacationing abroad are likely to get a pretty chilly reception by some local residents.
 

US dollar as the reserve currency? Countries will not have a choice - they will need to find a replacement (over the next decade).

 

Tesla is one small example of what is coming for US companies that do business abroad. 

 

Who will be the winners of the ‘dump the US’ movement? Probably lots of European companies.

 

And it’s not a cost thing - when it comes to maintaining/protecting your economy/way of life you do what you have to do. The rest of the world, ex US, is slowly waking up to the new reality. It will take many years for the adjustments to happen (in both the US and the rest of the world). 

 

Bottom line, I agree. What is going on with Tesla is different (much more severe and longer lasting) than what happened with Disney and Bud Light. 

 

—————

 

Listen, I am not saying the US does not have legitimate gripes with the rest of the world. But make no mistake, how Trump is doing what he is doing is going to have significant consequences for the America’s (citizens and businesses) standing in the world. If it continues, which I suspect it will (absent a big economic slowdown in the US, which I am not expecting).

 

Great post, @Viking,

 

The indignation among Canadian board members posting here on CofB&F is expressed, noticeable and tangible about the Canadian - American relations related to what's going on right now about tariffs between USA and Canada, and based on a history of decades of friendly trade and cooperation, and co-existence.

 

That talk from the POTUS about Canada as the 51^st US state  is also belittling and patronizing. I would personally say, that always polite Mark Carney to me appear to now have his hands full on communication to stand up against POTUS.

 

You have heard your wife cancel your usual summer vacation to USA. I have heard my better half say to me a few weeks ago, that if I wanted to buy shares in some defence contractors for her funds, she would be open to it. I was absolutely baffled by it, I considered it unlikely, that she would ever change mind on that.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

I just checked : Tesla is now in the hiring phase for its European, Berlin-Brandenburg giga-factory.

 

Tesla : Giga factory Berlin-Brandenburg

 

It's for production of Tesla Y and batteries. Here, batteries to be exported to where? To perhaps USA, to perhaps getting hit by US tariffs on exports to USA?

 

Elon Musk is 53 years old, and as far as I can see he has about 30 years of business experience, starting with Zip2 in '95. I'm personally really puzzled about him. In certain aspects - business related - he appears quite naive, in my personal view.

[Viking]

22 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Great post, @Viking,

 

The indignation among Canadian board members posting here on CofB&F is expressed, noticeable and tangible about the Canadian - American relations related to what's going on right now about tariffs between USA and Canada, and based on a history of decades of friendly trade and cooperation, and co-existence.

 

That talk from the POTUS about Canada as the 51^st US state  is also belittling and patronizing. I would personally say, that always polite Mark Carney to me appear to now have his hands full on communication to stand up against POTUS.

 

You have heard your wife cancel your usual summer vacation to USA. I have heard my better half say to me a few weeks ago, that if I wanted to buy shares in some defence contractors for her funds, she would be open to it. I was absolutely baffled by it, I considered it unlikely, that she would ever change mind on that.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

I just checked : Tesla is now in the hiring phase for its European, Berlin-Brandenburg giga-factory.

 

Tesla : Giga factory Berlin-Brandenburg

 

It's for production of Tesla Y and batteries. Here, batteries to be exported to where? To perhaps USA, to perhaps getting hit by US tariffs on exports to USA?

 

Elon Musk is 53 years old, and as far as I can see he has about 30 years of business experience, starting with Zip2 in '95. I'm personally really puzzled about him. In certain aspects - business related - he appears quite naive, in my personal view.

@John Hjorth , the issue with the US is much more than just tariffs. Tump has decided the best approach to international relations is to run the US like a mafia/cosa nostra organization. He is dealing with long time allies like 1940 and 1950’s Chicago when it was run by the mafia. Think about running a business back then. Or growing up in that neighbourhood. 
 

I am not sure fear/intimidation/shakedowns/absolute loyalty/fealty/eliminate opponents is a great way to run the most powerful country in the world. But it is what it is. 
 

And the mafia did do some good things for some people back then. So hey, maybe a return to the good old days will be a good thing in the end.
 

—————

 

Trump definitely has territorial aspirations. Canada. Greenland. Panama Canal. Who knows. But you would have to be an idiot to not take Trump seriously.

Edited 9 hours ago by Viking

[james22]

13 hours ago, Viking said:

I don’t think most American’s understand the damage that Trump and his crew are doing to the American brand outside of the US.

 

And I'm quite sure most outside the US don't understand how little Americans give a fuck what we're thought of anymore.

 

13 hours ago, Viking said:

Listen, I am not saying the US does not have legitimate gripes with the rest of the world. 

 

Just don't act on them?

[John Hjorth]

27 minutes ago, james22 said:

And I'm quite sure most outside the US don't understand how little Americans give a fuck what we're thought of anymore. ...

 

James [ @james22 ],

 

Are you angry?

[cubsfan]

3 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

James [ @james22 ],

 

Are you angry?

 

Probably not. He is just laughing (like I am) at the truly sanctimonious Canadians and European

blowhards that scream - war, war, war - and tariffs, tariffs, tariffs.

 

We understand why you are all so indignant. What you really fear is having to cut your own

social programs to pay for a war that you have no intention of fighting. You might have to ask your population to work a 40-50 hour week, you might have to not retire at 62 with everything paid for, you might not get months of family leave off. 

 

It's been a terrific ride having the USA carry NATO and taking the brunt of unfair tariffs.

So you can scream all you want, but I definitely get why your all so frustrated with the USA.

 

You might actually have to defend yourself for once and actually pay for it.

 

It definitely sucks.

[Viking]

19 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Probably not. He is just laughing (like I am) at the truly sanctimonious Canadians and European

blowhards that scream - war, war, war - and tariffs, tariffs, tariffs.

 

We understand why you are all so indignant. What you really fear is having to cut your own

social programs to pay for a war that you have no intention of fighting. You might have to ask your population to work a 40-50 hour week, you might have to not retire at 62 with everything paid for, you might not get months of family leave off. 

 

It's been a terrific ride having the USA carry NATO and taking the brunt of unfair tariffs.

So you can scream all you want, but I definitely get why your all so frustrated with the USA.

 

You might actually have to defend yourself for once and actually pay for it.

 

It definitely sucks.

@cubsfan , as I said, I agree that the US has legitimate grievances with the rest of the world. There are many ways to settle those grievances… All I am trying to do is:

1.) understand/process what Trump is doing, and

2.) the consequences that his actions will have on the US/global economy and stocks over time. 

 

I am not the sharpest knife in the drawer. And as of today, I have no idea what Trump’s end game really is and what the impacts to the US/global economy will be. It literally keeps changing every day. Crazy times.

 

Anyways, I apologize for taking this thread into the realm of politics (yes, I am Canadian). So I will stop  

Edited 8 hours ago by Viking

[Sweet]

14 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

You might have to ask your population to work a 40-50 hour week, you might have to not retire at 62 with everything paid for, you might not get months of family leave off. 

lol.  It wished I lived in this Europe of your imagination.

[John Hjorth]

8 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Probably not. He is just laughing (like I am) at the truly sanctimonious Canadians and European blowhards that scream - war, war, war - and tariffs, tariffs, tariffs.

 

We understand why you are all so indignant. What you really fear is having to cut your own social programs to pay for a war that you have no intention of fighting. You might have to ask your population to work a 40-50 hour week, you  might have to not retire at 62 with everything paid for, you might not get months of family leave off. 

 

It's been a terrific ride having the USA carry NATO and taking the brunt of unfair tariffs.

So you can scream all you want, but I definitely get why your all so frustrated with the USA.

 

You might actually have to defend yourself for once and actually pay for it.

 

It definitely sucks.

 

Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

That you grab a question for James [ @james22 ] from me, tells me a lot about the ability to discuss this matter based on sobriety and objectivity. Why are you always entering a state of more of less self-occilation?

 

The next thing is you start talking about USD 350 billion, right?

[Sweet]

3 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

That you grab a question for James [ @james22 ] from me, tells me a lot about the ability to discuss this matter based on sobriety and objectivity. Why are you always entering a state of more of less self-occilation?

 

The next thing is you start talking about USD 350 billion, right?

It’s not just that.  Cubs regularly says things just wrong.  UK retirement is 66, going to 68.  Many people base workweek is 40 hours although for many it’s more.  Maternity pay is generous compared to federal American, but comparable to some states and what some American companies offer.

 

Welfare state is too big here, but shrinking it is certainly not a ‘fear’ of mine.  It’s a long overdue necessity quite aside from anything to do with defence spending and Ukraine etc.

 

Edited 8 hours ago by Sweet

[KCLarkin]

1 hour ago, james22 said:

 

And I'm quite sure most outside the US don't understand how little Americans give a fuck what we're thought of anymore.

 

Oh, we understand this very clearly. Though the "anymore" is probably unnecessary, since the average American never really gave a fuck, right? At least that is the stereotype...

 

But in the context of Elon Musk and Tesla, the issue is that 50% of sales are international. And this is a car manufacturer trading at 8x sales. And Elon has margin loans against this stock, IIRC.  Where does the growth come from? And if it isn't growing, why doesn't it trade at less than 1x sales, like other automakers? Most of that premium, is the "Elon Premium". And if Elon Premium turns negative or even neutral?

[cubsfan]

26 minutes ago, Viking said:

@cubsfan , as I said, I agree that the US has legitimate grievances with the rest of the world. There are many ways to settle those grievances… All I am trying to do is:

1.) understand/process what Trump is doing, and

2.) the consequences that his actions will have on the US/global economy and stocks over time. 

 

I am not the sharpest knife in the drawer. And as of today, I have no idea what Trump’s end game really is and what the impacts to the US/global economy will be. It literally keeps changing every day. Crazy times.

 

Anyways, I apologize for taking this thread into the realm of politics (yes, I am Canadian). So I will stop  

 

It's real simple @Viking . I know you can't figure it out - but you're a very smart guy.

 

It's a new world order - driven by Trump. A total re-examination of NATO, which hopefully we will leave - it that's what it takes to have Europe and their lapdog leaders bark at the USA - and do

nothing.

 

It's sad to watch the warmongers in Europe and Canada, going utterly insane. The rhetoric from

these guys is nonsense. No admission of the predicament Ukraine is in - they are losing this war, as they don't have the manpower. It's only been going on for 2 years. 

 

It's going to cost lots of money to defend themselves - and Europe/Canada just can't stand it.

They certainly aren't going to send soldiers to fight in Ukraine.

 

If you believe in incentives: Trump was elected on the issue of cutting an enormous deficit, sealing the border (and deal with Mexico), and getting OUT of Ukraine.

 

That's why he was elected - to deal with the significant problems we have in this country.

[73 Reds]

36 minutes ago, Viking said:

@cubsfan , as I said, I agree that the US has legitimate grievances with the rest of the world. There are many ways to settle those grievances… All I am trying to do is:

1.) understand/process what Trump is doing, and

2.) the consequences that his actions will have on the US/global economy and stocks over time. 

 

I am not the sharpest knife in the drawer. And as of today, I have no idea what Trump’s end game really is and what the impacts to the US/global economy will be. It literally keeps changing every day. Crazy times.

 

Anyways, I apologize for taking this thread into the realm of politics (yes, I am Canadian). So I will stop  

<<as I said, I agree that the US has legitimate grievances with the rest of the world. There are many ways to settle those grievances>>

 

@Viking, I am genuinely interested in some of those ways.  I don't think asking nicely works anymore. Try to understand that Trump is doing largely what his electorate wants.  He ran first and foremost on US strength.  He and his followers believe that once adequate strength is achieved a lot of good both domestic and world-wide will come of it.  What I don't understand is why so many accuse Trump of perpetual lies except that when it comes to tariffs they are all-in Trump believers.     

[cubsfan]

35 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

That you grab a question for James [ @james22 ] from me, tells me a lot about the ability to discuss this matter based on sobriety and objectivity. Why are you always entering a state of more of less self-occilation?

 

The next thing is you start talking about USD 350 billion, right?

 

Poor John. You can pass out the insults and outrage, but certainly can't deal with any blowback on your silly opinions. I'm quite used to it.

[Jay Rent]

Trump knows that placing tariffs on Canada is a losing battle which is why he keeps backing down at the last moment.

 

Unfortunately as he is weak he will eventually take it too far.

[rogermunibond]

https://www.nationalreview.com/2025/03/trumps-reckless-war-on-canada/

 

https://www.nationalreview.com/2025/03/does-trump-know-why-he-was-elected/

 

Maybe the National Review editorial board and op/ed writers are RINOs.

 

Or maybe tariff wars are stupid.

Edited 7 hours ago by rogermunibond

[Charlie]

1 hour ago, Viking said:

understand/process what Trump is doing

 

@Viking 

I think Trump is trying to run the U.S. like it is a giant business.

That means he tries to get the Costs down at all costs.

And means he tries to get the Earnings up at all costs.

He hopes that more big companies come to the U.S. through the lower taxes in the U.S.

and through the tariffs long-term.

 

Of course, how smart it is to start a global trade war in a world with a lot of weapons of mass destruction is another question.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited 7 hours ago by Charlie

[Jay Rent]

8 minutes ago, Charlie said:

 

@Viking 

I think Trump is trying to run the U.S. like it is a giant business.

That means he tries to get the Costs down at all costs.

And means he tries to get the Earnings up at all costs.

He hopes that more big companies come to the U.S. through the lower taxes in the U.S.

and through the tariffs long-term.

 

Of course, how smart it is to start a global trade war in a world with a lot of weapons of mass destruction is another question.

 

 

 

 

Charlie  -  

 

Except as a business owner you want to sell as much product to your customers (yes Canada is a customer) as possible.  He needs to give Canada a win-win solution that is negotiating 101.  Currently he is not.

 

Even if you give Trump credit for his business skills it is as a landlord not as a seller of a multinational product.

[cubsfan]

24 minutes ago, rogermunibond said:

https://www.nationalreview.com/2025/03/trumps-reckless-war-on-canada/

 

https://www.nationalreview.com/2025/03/does-trump-know-why-he-was-elected/

 

Maybe the National Review editorial board and op/ed writers are RINOs.

 

Or maybe tariff wars are stupid.

 

National Review is filled with RINOS, which is fine since no one listens to them.

 

Here's the flip side:

 

https://www.heritage.org/defense/commentary/nato-has-canada-problem

[73 Reds]

6 minutes ago, Jay Rent said:

Charlie  -  

 

Except as a business owner you want to sell as much product to your customers (yes Canada is a customer) as possible.  He needs to give Canada a win-win solution that is negotiating 101.  Currently he is not.

 

Even if you give Trump credit for his business skills it is as a landlord not as a seller of a multinational product.

Negotiating 101:  Get the other side's attention.  Why do you think it ends there?