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Posted

I recently bought a small position bellow 15 USD...nothing is better for a good timing as some blind luck I guess:)

Posted
1 hour ago, UK said:

I recently bought a small position bellow 15 USD...nothing is better for a good timing as some blind luck I guess:)

 

100% agree, I am in the same boat  🙂 

Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

They kept the language about best efforts for the Anchorage IPO by September 2025. I don’t think it would be that surprising if someone in India had an informational edge. 

 

There is also a situation progressing where Bangalore needs to start on the second airport before Kempegowda's exclusivity period expires so most likely Anchorage will get the opportunity to develop and operate the 2nd airport on the other side of town.  Airport City development plus traffic roaring back to above pre-COVID peak.  Got some good stuff cooking

 

The potential large bank deal looks like a 2025 announcement.  I'm OK not winning that one.

Edited by gfp
Posted

And it is still VERY cheap! Probably their 50+% stake in BIAL covers today's market cap of $2.2B. Get the rest for free. 

Btw I just read some Marval fund letters and surely Ben Watsa shares his father optimism re: India and the investment opportunities there. Worth a read!

 

Best,

G

Posted (edited)

I think I know why this jumped yesterday

Quote

Celebrating +5 yrs of the Marval Guru Fund! Our 5yr 21.9% net CAGR (as of Sept. 30, 2024) ranks 6th among >3,000 institutional funds in hashtag#Canada which is a testament to hashtag#India. Deep gratitude to people of India, our clients, and team.

 

Quote

The Fund's five-year net compound annual returns of 21.9% means that invested capital doubled approximately every three and a half years. The Fund is currently the only India-focused fund in Canada with such a strong track record. In an investment world that often focuses on short-term gains and frequent trading, Marval has demonstrated the Fund's long-term, buy-and-hold investment strategy remains highly effective. 

 

marval-capital-s-india-focused-fund-with-169-total-net-return-over-5-years-outperforms-global-competitors

Edited by Junior R
Posted

Sorry I had to shut that rally down by channelling my inner Bruce.  My apologies to the Johnny-come-latelies.

Posted (edited)

Is that Fairfax India making a move? Wow finally🙂

 

On 11/7/2024 at 9:57 AM, SafetyinNumbers said:

I don’t think it would be that surprising if someone in India had an informational edge. 

Doubt it, the timing is an election driven rally, probably tied to Trumps' pro India messages (we all know he'll flip on a dime, but will take the 8% pop!).

 

On 11/7/2024 at 10:02 AM, gfp said:

The potential large bank deal looks like a 2025 announcement.  I'm OK not winning that one.

This one is mostly done, the optics of a Canadian company winning one of the high profile deals will be too much for Modi govt. I'm also ok with not winning this one, too big for FFI.

Edited by This2ShallPass
Posted
On 11/8/2024 at 10:50 AM, gfp said:

Sorry I had to shut that rally down by channelling my inner Bruce.  My apologies to the Johnny-come-latelies.

 

None shall pass!

image.png.681d7a463c9966a6abf8d3559fb20978.png

Posted
1 minute ago, backtothebeach said:

Already bounced back...something is going on with FIH.U.

 

It is usually so illiquid.  Any new interest will move the price in the short term.  The speculation here that it was Indian ex-pats buying on the perception of a great Modi-Trump relationship sounded plausible.  But the Indian markets have been down lately.  The airport is a hit so it doesn't matter to FIH.U but I'm selling these newcomers stock every time they bid it into the upper 16's

  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
Quote

The transaction is subject to approval by Fairfax India’s shareholders in accordance with the terms of the Company’s by-laws, third party consents and other customary closing conditions.

Why does it require shareholders approval? Are they going issue more shares to buy the stake?

Posted
25 minutes ago, Crip1 said:

This values the 74% stake at $1.85B meaning that the rest of FFI is valued by the market at $254M. 

 

-Crip

 

Didn't they already sell 11.5% of Anchorage to OMERS?  Meaning the look-through ownership Fairfax India shareholders have in BIAL is less than 74%?  Or did the  OMERS / Anchorage deal never happen?

Posted
24 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

Didn't they already sell 11.5% of Anchorage to OMERS?  Meaning the look-through ownership Fairfax India shareholders have in BIAL is less than 74%?  Or did the  OMERS / Anchorage deal never happen?


it happened and you are correct. 
technically look-through is at a smaller %. 

Posted
3 hours ago, Junior R said:

Why does it require shareholders approval? Are they going issue more shares to buy the stake?

yah I am also confused by that , what's the need for special shareholder meeting?

Posted
2 hours ago, gfp said:

 

Didn't they already sell 11.5% of Anchorage to OMERS?  Meaning the look-through ownership Fairfax India shareholders have in BIAL is less than 74%?  Or did the  OMERS / Anchorage deal never happen?

I appreciate the correction (completely forgot the OMERS piece, clearly). That changes the math. It reduces the 74% to 68.97%, which changes FFI's share of BIAL to be worth US$1.759B resulting in the rest of FFI to be valued at US$337M based on the share price mid-day. 

Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Hoodlum said:

 

Don't get me wrong... I love the fact that Fairfax is vacuuming up a significant amount of BIAL at a very attractive prices. My question is why is Siemens selling 10% for 'only' $255 million?

 

Could it be:

1.) I think Fairfax has right of first refusal if partners sell their stake to external party... could that be it? Effectively stopping serious bids from coming?

2.) BIAL already has a majority owner... Fairfax. So anyone buying will be a minority owner... minority stakes are valued at a discount?

3.) Siemens wants out - so forced seller with limited buyers?

4.) Other?

Edited by Viking
Posted
22 minutes ago, Viking said:

 

Don't get me wrong... I love the fact that Fairfax is vacuuming up a significant amount of BIAL at a very attractive prices. My question is why is Siemens selling 10% for 'only' $255 million?

 

Could it be:

1.) I think Fairfax has right of first refusal if partners sell their stake to external party... could that be it? Effectively stopping serious bids from coming?

2.) BIAL already has a majority owner... Fairfax. So anyone buying will be a minority owner... minority stakes are valued at a discount?

3.) Siemens wants out - so forced seller with limited buyers?

4.) Other?

 

I wonder if Siemens believes it could be a long while before there is an IPO.  This transaction with Siemens doesn't close until July 2026.  

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