Buffett/Berkshire - general news

[gfp]

1 hour ago, jbwent63 said:

Hopefully gfp will post the quarterly report from NICO that might provide some of these answers for stocks that are not required to be reported to the SEC on form13-F.

 

The NAIC filings for the 1st quarter of 2022 are not posted yet, but I will have a look when I notice them.  Could be a while if they don't come out before I head to Spain for a month, early next week.  But I will look 'cause I'm curious...

[gfp]

Apologies if this has already been posted, but Berkshire is still buying OXY shares -

 

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001067983/000089924322016679/xslF345X03/doc4.xml

[LearningMachine]

4 hours ago, gfp said:

Apologies if this has already been posted, but Berkshire is still buying OXY shares -

 

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001067983/000089924322016679/xslF345X03/doc4.xml

 

Thanks @gfp for keeping everyone updated on this.

[hasilp89]

On 5/3/2022 at 10:32 AM, gfp said:

 

The NAIC filings for the 1st quarter of 2022 are not posted yet, but I will have a look when I notice them.  Could be a while if they don't come out before I head to Spain for a month, early next week.  But I will look 'cause I'm curious...

Please post if you find it. I heard that too and was curious. I checked his personal holdings on ticker and it showed a position in lanxess. Know he said it was through brk but thought it was interesting.

 

[valueseek]

He is the last person to be influenced but this was pitched at Barron's roundtable 2019 by BRK director Meryl Witmer.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-travel-play-and-a-box-stock-favored-by-eagle-capitals-meryl-witmer-51547863453

 

[gfp]

On Lanxess, I believe he started that position through one of General Re's European divisions back in 2017.  There were articles at the time saying he was over 3% or something like that.  He has added to it from time to time, so it could be one of the German securities that he referenced - but this hasn't been a great investment for him so far.

 

Just speculating, but he has traded large positions in Munich Re in the past, and we did see a big increase in "banks, insurance & finance" category of equity holdings at cost basis - so maybe he is back into Munich Re as one of the German buys.

 

The buying may not show up in the NAIC filings at all if it was done through Harney Investment Trust.  If it does, it will probably be within one of the Euro subs of General Re - Cologne Re may have been re-named General Reinsurance AG or something like that.  Will have to root around.

[gfp]

For the Berkshire shareholders interested in following Alleghany's results now that it looks like the deal is on track - here are their recent earnings ->

 

https://www.alleghany.com/investor-relations/press-releases/press-release-details/2022/Alleghany-Corporation-Reports-2022-First-Quarter-Results/default.aspx

 

PDF of the earnings press release (same as above):

https://s24.q4cdn.com/857140222/files/doc_financials/2022/q1/1Q22-Earnings-Release-(Final).pdf

 

PDF of financial supplement:

https://s24.q4cdn.com/857140222/files/doc_financials/2022/q1/1Q22-Financial-Supplement-(Final).pdf

 

PDF of the 10Q:

https://s24.q4cdn.com/857140222/files/doc_financials/2022/q1/29d616ca-5db1-45a1-a5a1-be93d181cd58.pdf

 

----------

 

When I first saw the decline in investment income I was hopeful it was due to a decrease in bond portfolio duration but it was not (avg. duration is 4.4 yrs, was 4.5 yrs at year-end).  It appears Y invests some of its float in hedge funds and other LPs, some of which had significant gains on Cryptocurrencies in the year-ago quarter.

Edited May 8, 2022 by gfp

[Spekulatius]

On 5/3/2022 at 10:27 AM, Xerxes said:

Knowing what we know about the giant Activision position, it is worth re-watching that segment of the Charlie Rose interview, when he asks Buffett about his two BIG invstments (Oxy and Activision), of course not realizing that there was actually a big position in activision which was not disclosed yet.

 

Buffett had a split-second pause before he responded and went on and on about the media mis-reporting.

I looked into getting into the ATVI arb as well, but what bugs me about is how much other video game stocks have gone down since the deal was announced. So, if this deal falls apart, I think the downside is quite large and I think the stock could easily see a 5 handle.

 

Anyways, I concluded it's not for me.

[Ballinvarosig Investors]

On 5/3/2022 at 5:13 AM, r.ph.schaefer said:

"Buffett also said at the meeting that Berkshire had bought shares in three German companies in the first quarter, but didn’t disclose the names."

 

Any ideas what stocks these might be? I know, it's just speculation at this point...

Should be easy enough to create a shortlist. There's only 70 German companies with a market cap of greater than $5bn. Doubt Buffett would go lower than that.

• Allianz is a high quality insurer that consistently writes at a combined ratio of under 100. Trades at 10x earnings, buys back stock. Anaemic growth however.
• Adidas has improved their business in the last few years, increased margins, now buying back stock. Doesn't look much different than something like Nike, which makes me think this one isn't likely. You'd think if Buffett was interested, he'd stick with the ones he knows better.
• Knorr Bremse is quite a bit smaller than the above, but it's reasonably priced, it's got some growth, reasonably stable operating margin. They don't buy back stock, but they don't issue it either. We know Buffett likes railways, why not train makers too? 

 

 

[KPO]

2 hours ago, Ballinvarosig Investors said:

Should be easy enough to create a shortlist. There's only 70 German companies with a market cap of greater than $5bn. Doubt Buffett would go lower than that.

• Allianz is a high quality insurer that consistently writes at a combined ratio of under 100. Trades at 10x earnings, buys back stock. Anaemic growth however.
• Adidas has improved their business in the last few years, increased margins, now buying back stock. Doesn't look much different than something like Nike, which makes me think this one isn't likely. You'd think if Buffett was interested, he'd stick with the ones he knows better.
• Knorr Bremse is quite a bit smaller than the above, but it's reasonably priced, it's got some growth, reasonably stable operating margin. They don't buy back stock, but they don't issue it either. We know Buffett likes railways, why not train makers too? 

 

 

He seemed familiar with Bayer when discussing the Monsanto merger arb deal, so that’s one to put on the short list. 

[Snorky]

Any chance that it will revealed which companys he bought?

[gfp]

For the German companies Berkshire purchased in Q1, they were:

 

Allianz, Munich Re and BASF

 

Edited May 17, 2022 by gfp

[Thelilyinvestor]

24 minutes ago, gfp said:

For the German companies Berkshire purchased in Q1, they were:

 

Allianz, Munich Re and BASF

 

 

This is great, Thanks!

[Lemsip]

3 hours ago, gfp said:

For the German companies Berkshire purchased in Q1, they were:

 

Allianz, Munich Re and BASF

 

Thanks. What source is this from ?

[gfp]

10 minutes ago, Lemsip said:

Thanks. What source is this from ?

1st quarter NAIC filing for National Indemnity. Will post the pdfs later but traveling currently 

[Charlie]

The strong US-Dollar could be a good tailwind for the German investments.

[DooDiligence]

1 hour ago, gfp said:

1st quarter NAIC filing for National Indemnity. Will post the pdfs later but traveling currently 

 

Diviértete

[Ballinvarosig Investors]

6 hours ago, gfp said:

For the German companies Berkshire purchased in Q1, they were:

 

Allianz, Munich Re and BASF

 

Thanks!

 

 

I had thought Allianz was the most likely one.

 

Munich Re has really good numbers too, but Buffett sold it a few years back, which made me think he wouldn't want to get back into it. I mean how often does he sell something, only to buy back in later? 

 

BASF is one I would need to look into more. I did look at it and it looked cheap, but it was a bit lumpy and isn't really growing.

[gfp]

20087.2022.P.Q1.P.O.1.4376224.pdf

 

This is the Q1 2022 NAIC filing for National Indemnity.  The screenshot I posted earlier is from page 155 I believe.  There is a lot of detail to scroll through to get to anything interesting.  Don't worry about the trades in American Express, this is just National Indemnity buying this stock from other Berkshire subsidiaries (not a taxable event).

 

Page 157 shows the average price they sold most of the Verizon stock for - $52.64 / share, a loss of about a billion dollars before dividends and tax benefit.

Edited May 17, 2022 by gfp

[John Hjorth]

Thank you very much for sharing, gfp,

 

It's very much appreciated. Interesting stuff to dive into.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

On another note, related to what has been posted in this topic recently, the mystery about the omission KO in the notes to the BRK 10-Q about material stock positions has been revealed in the BRK EOP 2022Q1 13F-HR.

 

A KO stock position valued at USD 29.8 B is now considered immaterial, so that it doesn't qualify to be considered material in the notes of the BRK 10-Q, based on its value, or Mr. Hamburg has decided "the limit" to the "material"-podium to be restricted to five.

 

Personally, I think we need to get used to things like this going forward. [Berkshire's reporting has been "cartoon-figures" for years now.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Best wishes for an enjoyable vacation in Spain.

Edited May 17, 2022 by John Hjorth

[HeadOfLeverage]

Had a quick look at the German positions, they feel similar to Verizon as an alternative to cash/bonds, possibly with some tailwinds from a hardening insurance market and shortages in chemicals.

[dajidali]

BRK invested in Markel

 

Buffett's Berkshire takes $620m stake in Markel - Reinsurance News

[Spekulatius]

On 5/17/2022 at 4:17 PM, HeadOfLeverage said:

Had a quick look at the German positions, they feel similar to Verizon as an alternative to cash/bonds, possibly with some tailwinds from a hardening insurance market and shortages in chemicals.

I know BASF well. The stock looks cheap and pays a nice dividend, but I think they have structural issues now as a huge consumer of natural gas and electricity. I think this business may have a permanent input cost issue, due to dependency from Russian NG.

Edited May 24, 2022 by Spekulatius

[gfp]

Following reports that the 6/1 cat renewals were not going smoothly, there is a report that Berkshire wrote at least one large reinsurance policy for a Florida carrier (HCI).  Hopefully Ajit got some more big deals done on good terms.

 

https://www.insuranceinsider.com/article/2a65bnb78rcx9lqkk58u8/reinsurers-section/berkshire-hathaway-writes-400mn-line-on-floridian-carrier-hcis-reinsurance-treaty

[longterminvestor]

I am a retail agent in FL.  Market is really tough for Florida Property/CAT Wind. Coastal Condo placement I just heard went from $400K premium to $1.3M Premium and broker still hasn't placed the top layers for the 5/31 renewal date.  I have personally seen/placed accounts with 100%-150% premium increases.  Counterparties comparing this market to buying Terrorism post 9/11.  Have not seen any Berkshire paper on a retail placement for large deals, they last quoted in 2013-2014 but pulled out because market was getting too soft.   

 

Excerpt from article linked below.  I am not a reinsurance expert, but the "one reinsurance company" has to be GenRe and clearly they are getting their price.  For context, I do know these reinsurance placements are largely on homeowners business and some residential condos.  

 

“Market reports are that most domestic carriers have placed less than 80% of their required external placements prior to the Memorial Day weekend, and many far less than that. In one case, as of early Friday: zero. The current shortfall is well over $10B of unplaced limit. Their brokers are hard pressed for solutions,” says Stonybrook, a specialist strategic advisory and investment banking firm focused exclusively on the insurance and reinsurance industry.

 

The firm goes on to note that it’s aware of at least one large reinsurance company and one large catastrophe fund that are actively quoting new limits, albeit at unacceptable terms.

 

https://www.reinsurancene.ws/well-over-10bn-of-unplaced-limit-at-june-1-further-downgrades-expected-stonybrook/