Thelilyinvestor

Any idea why growth rates and margins are so volatile? They are always positive, but difficult to make decent predictions about the long term growth rate of the business.

Sepukku in the game

We all know these amazing management teams and capital allocators, your typical Warren Buffett, Mark Leonard etc. But they are already big and constrains of too much capital are always on the horizon. I thought it was a great idea to start this topic of the next great capital allocators, who are still for the most part unknown. Just having 1 of these "outsiders" early enough in their journey can be the easiest way to hit a big home run by just trusting management. I personally have identified the management team of Terravest - TVK as one of the best out there, and they are still a very small company. Also, Brett Kelly from KPG is a potential great capital allocator still young enough in his journey Anyone out there that wants to share some of these "Outsiders" so we can all profit from it? Thanks!

In my opinion, is Itochu. I believe they have more non resource companies, so their cash flows are less cyclical. I am invested since 2020 and quite happy with how management is operating the business. Consistently increasing buybacks and dividends.

I think the point he is trying to make are 2: 1) He only invests in what he understands (If he would understand a big tech company he would invest) 2) He doesnt like to invest in fast changing industries (if any of the big tech companies would be more slow changing, he could invest in them) He does not having any problem investing in tech, rather than understanding and the pace of change in a industry.

Completely Agree. We will find a great capital allocator, will post here if I find someone that walks the talk.

Well, track record wise, you have to say Masayoshi Son, from Softbank. But I consider this guy a smart guy who has both been extremely aggressive and probably lucky. I do not know any Buffett like investors from Japan. Must be some building amazing conglomerates.

Of course my answer was partially a joke. I think the main idea with Japanese stocks is finding the few ones who understand capital allocation, even if they are a bit more expensive than the ultra cheap stuff.

Best screener for Japan is the Buffett Screener. These trading companies are extremely high quality and pretty much cheap still after the run.

I invested during the drawdown of covid in 2020, OMAB was 1 stock in a basket of stocks heavily affected by the pandemic, you could call it a "contrarian basket" which on average should work out. OMAB´s business has been performing really well since then so I have not sold a single share. I do not have an opinion on ASUR. I guess OMAB is more a bet on Mexico´s economic growth, while ASUR is more a bet on touristic travel I understand.

I own one of the 3 mexican airport groups, OMAB. My understanding is that the concession expires in 2048 as some of you have pointed out. In the case of no further concession after 2048, does anyone know what happens to the equity? Is it all paid as a special dividend? Does anyone know any past examples of not renewing the concession and what happened? Thank you

I find interesting that he bought back more Berkshire shares in June and early July than April and May at higher prices. Maybe he is seeing a re acceleration in the US economy? I think it is worth a thought, we all know that Buffett is very price sensitive and only buys back shares of Berkshire if they are "significantly undervalued conservatively estimated by Charlie and me" Lily

When CNBC starts giving names to a group of companies because their prices just keep going up is sometimes a great indicator of a top. The new term is the "Magnificent 7". Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, Nvidia and Apple. I believe Tesla, Nvidia are completely overvalued. Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Apple towards expensive. Amazon might be fairly valued in my opinion. Are they a leading indicator to the rest of the market? Or just some AI hype? I open this thread, which I think might be interesting. Lily

https://www.barrons.com/articles/berkshire-hathaway-warren-buffett-pilot-flying-j-buy-84705bd Buffett boosting its stake in Pilot to 80%

Seems like they net purchased around 4B of stocks in the quarter +1B in buybacks. I was hoping they would be a bit more aggressive with the markets crashing.

This detailed info is excellent! Thank you Dynamic

Maybe I am late to this but... does anyone know with certainty if Buffett sold his holdings of the 5 japanese trading companies? They do not appear on any filing

Clearly they had been on the move in Q1 with Oxy, Chevron, Alleghany, and others. They have reduce the speed of buybacks and increased purchases in stocks, so I understand that they view some opportunities out there more interesting that their own stock.

I think is important to remember the differences of style. Buffett basicaly thinks 10 years ahead, while Burry thinks maybe some months or years ahead. Apple could be short for the short term and a long for the long term at the same time.

I see quite a lot of consensus buying big tech, these are the top4 buys last quarter.

This is great, Thanks!

With this very interesting 13F season coming up when markets are in a severe downfall, I thought we should have a general 13F topic to share potential investment ideas. Let the cloning begin

He bought 600M of Apple around 150 before it went back up, so it would surprise me if he is not buying right now at around 140!!

I am just saying that he has high conviction on this, he might be wrong, but he also might understand something we dont understand. Time will tell...

Yeah... but you have to admire his strong conviction on a very uncertain situation...