glider3834

I think you are using 8.8% as a sort of worst case scenario but it is really skewed by the hedges If you take out period they were 100% equity hedged, CAGR% in in book value per share is higher 2002-2010 (9 yrs) 13.9% 2011-2016 - 100% equities hedged 2017-2021 (5yrs) 13.1% (including dividends) Plus also factor in pre-tax investment yield (Interest & dividends) was 3.6% in 2002-2010 period but fell to 1.8% in 2017-2021. That impacted BVPS growth. We are now back to 3.2% - hopefully they can continue to move yield & duration higher.

@nwoodman I jumped the gun on this one - it looks like these draft regs still exclude subsidiary from being a promoter unless it meets certain criteria - anyway these draft regs will need to go through consultation process & are not finalised - so lets see what happens - on 3Q call sounds like FFH are going to explore all legal options to exercise their convertible preferreds

3Q result was interesting with Exco - its been a wild ride - Fairfax's share of profit 1Q 38M 2Q (38.5) 3Q 43.5 4Q? Exco have hedges rolling off so I am thinking that is affecting results in this topsy turvy way, but the next 12 months hopefully will benefit from the stronger 12mth natural gas strip pricing we saw in 2022 vs 2021. Strip pricing has come back off its highs for 2022 now at $5.35 for next 12mths but still above the 2021 avg and IMH0 outlook still constructive for natural gas - the energy problems are far from solved in Europe https://www.iea.org/news/europe-needs-to-take-immediate-action-to-avoid-risk-of-natural-gas-shortage-next-year

viking looks like they are getting serious now with longer duration bonds (reducing 1-2 years & increasing 3-5 yrs) but sticking mostly to US treasuries so not pushing out the credit risk spectrum

So estimate holdco cash now would be bw 1.7B to 1.8B 'Subsequent to September 30, 2022, on October 31, 2022, excluding the $250 in seller debentures, the holding company received net cash proceeds of approximately $900 from the sale of Crum & Forster Pet Insurance Group and Pethealth, including all of their worldwide operations, as described in note 12.'

Using as a proxy - just looking at Fairfax's % share of net profit in Atlas, Eurobank, Resolute from Q2 reports - I get a number over $300M (note Eurobank benefited from interest rate hedging gains in Q2) - there are a lot of other private holdings as well, so will have to wait & see what they report. Another question I have is on Stelco, assuming Fairfax did not sell into SIB their ownership is around 23.6% mark - will they equity account their share of net profit on this investment as well or perhaps start in 2023??

viking I hope its 1.

C&F pet sale completed https://finance.yahoo.com/news/independence-pet-group-completes-acquisition-144500058.html

well that settles it

I just listened to WRB Call - they did a avg rate increase (excl w/comp) of 7.3% in 3Q (vs 6.8% in 2Q) and they still see opportunity going forward - so sounds like the hard market is still in play albeit off the highs of last year Also kab60 just on your question on rates - Rob Berkley estimated that their premium rate increases are running over 100 bps and up to 200 bps above loss cost trends - so they are looking to put in extra cushioning there but yes the ultimate cost won't be known until years out. Fairfax hasn't broken out their exact % rate increases but they have held a short duration portfolio & have been worried about inflation for the last few years & so have been pushing on rate.

yes agree also some tailwinds for this business - 2022 tourism revenues surpassed 2019 in Greece https://greekreporter.com/2022/10/17/greece-october-tourism/ - Greek economy one of the best in Europe in terms of GDP growth- even although 2023 will be tougher https://www.ekathimerini.com/economy/1195395/imf-sees-greece-outperforming/ - real estate in Greece is seeing record foreign investment in 2022 https://greekreporter.com/2022/10/21/golden-visa-greece/

IRDAI has proposed new 2022 regulations (13/10) https://www.irdai.gov.in/admincms/cms/whatsNew_Layout.aspx?page=PageNo4834&flag=1 & they include changing the 'Indian Promoter' definition removing this requirement that a Company cannot be a subsidiary. If these are implemented as proposed, then I think it would allow Fairfax to get over this issue described above & be able to convert its convertible preferred shares to take control of Digit & recognise any MTM gain where applicable. 2022 exposure draft original 2000 regs

I found this https://greekvalueinvestingcentre.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/1.George-Chryssikos-The_Grivalia_Story-1.pdf

Would be good to get some more info on Grivalia Hospitality On July 5, 2022 the company increased its interest in Grivalia Hospitality S.A. ("Grivalia Hospitality") to 78.4% from 33.5% by acquiring additional shares for cash consideration of $194.6 million (€190.0 million). The company will commence consolidating Grivalia Hospitality in the third quarter of 2022. Grivalia Hospitality acquires, develops and manages hospitality real estate in Greece, Cyprus and Panama. Fairfax picked up an additional 45% stake that would value the equity at USD 430 mil approx I saw this article below that suggests a valuation for the portfolio when these luxury hotels are completed - could there be NAV upside? It is unclear what the cost to complete & capital position will be - we just don't have enough data here. 'Today the company's portfolio (Amanzoe, One&Only Aesthesis in Asteria Glyfadas, ON Residence, Avantmar in Paros, etc.) includes ultra-luxury tourism projects with a value exceeding 510 million euros and when those under development are completed, this value will exceeds 1.1 billion euros.' https://www.moneyreview.gr/business-and-finance/business/91384/oloklirothike-i-metafora-edras-tis-grivalia-hospitality-stin-ellada/

is this an opinion or are you referencing data/stats?

And then you have IG corporates at 6.4%, Mortgages over 7% and High yield debt 9.5% https://www.marketwatch.com/story/you-can-be-invested-in-fixed-income-again-bond-investors-say-even-before-the-fed-stops-hiking-rates-11666219818 Lets assume that rates are starting to peak & Fairfax wants to capture this higher rate upside but doesn't want to wait until all of its portfolio matures - do you think that Fairfax could use derivative strategy to capture these higher rates before they potentially start to roll the portfolio over into these higher yielding bonds - to effectively lock in some of these higher yields - can it be done - any thoughts?

IDBI reported in news that prem & fairfax potentially interested - i am not sure if Fairfax india are in bidding process but that might impact buyback

also from the same article 'Nevertheless, analysts concluded that losses will almost certainly sustain “very significant” property-catastrophe reinsurance rate increases in 2023, despite being subject to change.' https://www.reinsurancene.ws/hurricane-ian-a-very-expensive-earnings-event-says-kbw/

I thought this article was interesting “Credit spreads are too tight, they are not adequately reflecting the risk of recession. Other models that we use, whether it’s the yield curve or the macro-economic hard data are more bearish,” said Matthew Mish, head of credit strategy at UBS, adding that at some point “these need to converge.” https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/credit-markets-see-less-risk-recession-earnings-may-challenge-that-2022-09-23/

this could be another reason too - Fairfax has sold most of its IIFL Wealth stake to comply with SEBI rules https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/sebi-lens-on-fairfax-for-alleged-breach-of-crossholding-norms/articleshow/93866786.cms?from=mdr

cheers nwoodman, looks like a similar issue to RBL - they settled with SEBI - had to pay a fine - then were able to IPO https://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/sebi-settles-rbl-bank-s-case-through-consent-mechanism-116060101708_1.html

unconfirmed at this stage but there are press reports suggesting Fairchem stake is being shopped https://www.livemint.com/companies/news/fairfax-india-to-exit-fairchem-organics-11663267206298.html

I can't help but recall this trade