Sweet

A thread for things which are interesting but which don’t warrant their own thread. Might even produce actionable ideas. Here is one - I’ve not verified the data: Some of these companies I’ve never even heard of.

How many stocks are on that list and how well do you know them?

There is a difference between production and supply. That Saudis for instance can produce at 10 million a day, supplying 9 million to the market, and putting 1 million in storage. The Saudis have at least 150 million barrels of storage capacity which is currently empty.

economy must not be doing so well

You can be one of the best analytical minds in the game, but if aren’t an optimist you are far less likely to enter a position. Pessimism kills returns, if you think you’re smart enough to call market tops and let good opportunities pass you by you’ll probably not do as well over the longer term. Optimism needs to be balanced by being humble though. Yes there are opportunities but how well does the average member here (myself included) really know about the companies they buy? For my part I can’t buy a name I don’t recognise. Part of my goal in posting here, apart from meeting others, is to expand my universe of knowable stocks. I probably need a few months at a minimum of knowing a company to feel comfortable enough to buy. Many others here are not like that I expect. Which helps explain my current cash problem, the number of stocks I know about and would feel comfortable buying is small.

My own personal view is that the composition of Berkshire is increasingly not the product of Buffett and Munger. Apple is their biggest position, where revenue seems to have stalled and it’s at 30+ yield to market cap. This is my feeling too. I don’t see the point in buying something unless it’s a lot better than the risk free. This is how I would prefer to be. I think it’s easier to add to positions you already own here than to open a starter though.

I doubt that’s what he means… maybe I’m wrong though.

I have part of my money in Schwab and I think they pay 0.45% which is a bit of a joke. If they don’t change that soon I’ll move it out to IBKR which is paying 10x more.

I find myself with a very large cash position for the first time in about 5 years. I’m not sure the exact percentage but I’m somewhere between 60-70% cash right now. My large cash position is not by design, I exited some positions earlier in the year and haven’t found anything to buy. I’m not bearish on the market, yes I think there are areas of the market which are expensive, but there many which aren’t. I could buy bonds but IBKR are offering 4.5% on cash held in USD so I don’t see much point in going down that route. I can see areas of potential opportunity from rising rates and reduced money supply but nothing I want to pick at yet. I can’t be the only one sitting with more cash than they are comfortable with?

I don’t know if 5% increase in rates breaks anything more but I am sure that a 5% risk free rate brings down valuations. I don’t get the doomers though, always calling tops and predicting the next recession.

Sold all my energy positions yesterday, it was a good ride but for the first time in 7 years I haven’t a dime in O&G. I first entered in 2016 and after initially doing well the position did nothing for 2 years and even dropped below my entry. Covid came along and I allocated 100% of my port to energy around April / May 2020 and sold out over time. I would have preferred to exit everything last summer but nobody can pick tops. I see some room for energy prices to run, 50% upside maybe for some companies if they do well, but the apathy for the sector is extreme and the easy gains are over. There are also so many dog shit companies run by piss artist managers. Management matters so much in this space in terms of balance sheet management, and ironically management can also do nothing when all the shale idiots are pumping like mad. Demand is strong but I don't buy the narrative of a super cycle driven by a lack of supply being imminent. And as Biden showed, there is enough SPR around the world to push down prices. Of course, I will buy into energy again if the bottom falls out the market I just don't see that happening short of a price war. As someone said in this thread a while ago, you rent O&G stocks, you should rarely if ever own them.

He’s being a total arse. Also, what a silly way to spend your life.

By no means an expert. Iranian oil is already back on the mark on the market to a large degree. US shale is producing a lot of light oil that isn’t classified as crude, it’s likely being blending into oil. Russian production has not been dropping much, they found a new home for their oil. Venezuela is the wild card for me, no idea what happens there. I think the recent news show that it’s not really demand that’s causing softened sun price but once again too much supply.

That’s brutal and not nice to watch. I fully support Ukraine but I also feel very bad for those Russian soldiers being killed in that video. Many young men dying for no real cause. It’s mad. Unfortunately I also agree with @changegonnacome, this trench warfare is not good for Ukraine either, and it’s a problem if it goes on for very long. They need to pierce the French system quickly otherwise they are going to get sucked into a war of attrition that they are less likely to win.

Under appreciated comment. Unless you start out with a lot of money, chances are you will need to dip into your investments at some point. Not everybody lives to the age of Warren Buffett, but I’d also bet that Warren would give it all up to be young once again. Money isn’t everything.

I don’t get the crap that LIV wrecks the game, or the link to the Saudis and 9/11 - thinks that’s all bs. The PGA has no right to a monopoly but there is something to be said for loyalty and standing on a principle even if it costs money. So I respect Tiger and McIlroys decision, less so the multi-millionaires who took the money claiming they need it to take care of the family lol.

Why today?

Dunno Greg, many of those guys going to LIV are already multi-millionaires lol. Can take care of there multiple times only. Respect for Tiger and McIlroy on this, but they both got fucked by the PGA.

This meme sums up investing so much, particularly the GSEs. You are always at one of these stages:

I think a lot of the problems with the stocks dropping much further was the assumption that there hasn’t been a recession and we still had to bottom. Taken as a probably, the chances of a 50% drawdown are low. I still think the next 10 years aren’t going to be nearly as easy as the last 10, although as ever you can pick your spots.

Tiger turned down 700 million apparently.

They should have children before it’s too late unless they are an absolutely certain on no kids. It’s a big regret of many older people who forwent children. We know one older couple in particular who worked hard and wanted to travel during their time off, so never had kids. They say it was their biggest mistake. They’ve been all over the world, have all the money they want, but no one to share it with and nobody to come round for dinner. Get in your bothers ear.

I’m in the UK, there are places that sell it online, but I would rather know someone who can vouch for their products before I buy.

my next question was where do you get it. Never tried wagyu must see if I can get some. It’s very healthy I understand

Is Kobe wagyu? Where do you get it from?