Sweet

We had a recession already. We had -1.6% and 0.6% in Q1 and Q2 respectively last year. That's always been considered a recession....

No offence, but this is exactly the type of mental masturbation Hussman did as he sat out of the market while it ripped 100s% higher. It’s also exactly the type of thing I used to think too. I gave up on market timing long ago because it cost me so much money.

Yeh Burry I would count more as a trader. Another guy who is nearly always negative when you hear from him is Stanley Druckenmiller, wrongly advertised as an investors, he’s actually a trader that, among other things, uses technical analysis to try and time markets. Both of them wrong on big stock market macro calls the past 10 ish years. Ironically Druckenmiller, despite sounding bearish, is very often long lol.

This is what the bears do. They find a metric which states - x predicted the last y recessions, and this indicates that the bear market isn’t over. Or something similar. They then use that to sell their thesis. My experience is that far more often than not their calls are wrong. Hussman is the perfect example of this, he had data like this coming out of his ass, and yet he was dead wrong year after year. Jim Chanos performance - anyone know what it is? I don’t think it’s very good. Even his short portfolio, I remember him in an interview saying that his short positions make very little money. Regarding Jim Chanos factoid, it’s irrelevant. This bear market may or may not be over, but those data mined statistics once found are often immediately proven wrong. Next year we will get a new one.

Response: https://hindenburgresearch.com/adani-response/

Depends how big your stake was?

I don’t think anyone knew it would become this popular, or that it was intended to be popular. I see characteristics though that make me think, dam, wouldn’t it be crazy if this was a government honey trap for all the criminals. Who knows though.

So many pundits predicting economic catastrophe in Europe this Winter and in 2023. We are only a month in to be fair, but those predictions are already looking sour.

To be honest, that’s what I expected.

What’s the accurate price, and how can you be sure it’s accurate?

I have a suspicion that Bitcoin and crypto was created by a government - possibly the US government. It tracks and retains information on prior transactions within the blockchain, the ledger is public, but for some reason some people think it’s more anonymous and less traceable than cash? I’ll not be surprised if Satoshi Nakamoto turns out to be some computer programmer working for the CIA or FBI.

OK, but the creator designed it as a peer-peer electronic payment method. Funny thing is I partly agree with you, it’s a poor currency, and yet that is effectively what it was designed for.

Many advocates of Bitcoin in this very thread say it’s a currency. The title of the thread is cryptocurrency. Cryptocurrency has been used since its creation to define what Bitcoin is and explain one of its purpose. The creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, created it as a payment method. They all wrong? Lol.

Just an observation, but some of the recent price action on BTC looks a bit like a currency peg. The only other time I remember sideways price action like this is CB interventions.

I don’t have a problem with your view. I read parts of the white paper, and don’t disagree with the theory about utility and adoptions aspects. I don’t think you can put a number on the valuation though. From an investor standpoint, there are no cashflows to value. That doesn’t mean it’s a zero though. I think we are largely in agreement in principles. I agree Bitcoin has uses and is valuable to some people, I just don’t really have any uses or place any value in it, but others do and valuation is subjective. I think mine is a very reasonable stance. My problem with wachtwoord is his attempt to redefine what ‘intrinsic value’ means in investing.

I’m with Schwab international. I don’t have a debit card, maybe I have to apply for one? Not sure. No commissions I can confirm and good customer service. I am also with IBKR, and I much prefer Schwab platform, it’s much less clunky and more intuitive. Only one problem with Schwab, is they don’t allow EU / UK clients to buy ETFs if they don’t have the PRIIPs key investor document, and they have no process to allow yourself to reclassify as a professional client. That’s a pain in the ass.

Is it your opinion that there are commentators in this thread who don’t understand that? Seems a fairly basic level of knowledge, which I would imagine everyone has.

I think you just can’t understand why someone disagrees with you, and this is more evidence of it.

Depends on company. If it is a company that might not be around in 20 years, and has declining revenue, give me the dividends. There is no point buying back shares in a business that is in terminal decline. If revenue and income are growing, and it looks like the company has a very long life, buybacks are probably better. Then again you might have a company growing slowly, it’s a good valuation but you can find many companies with better ROIC, then it’s dividends again for me. The problem with dividends is the tax, it’s a big drag.

“Look honestly“ you think I’m lying about my views lol? There is no reason to be anything but honest, I’m not long or short. I never said crypto was a ponzi and scam, although some undoubtedly are, but so are many companies. To base one’s argument around that is, and that nobody is saying Amazon is a ponzi or scam, is a logical fallacy (as you would say).

Your arguments = logical. Those who may disagree with you = “entirely made of non sequitors, auctoritatem, as hominems and other logical fallacies”. That’s only slightly better than saying we shouldn’t comment.

@wachtwoord seems to think that if you don’t share his view on crypto, you don’t understand crypto, and you should not post in the thread Its perfectly possibly to understand yet disagree. An example of that is the Amazon thread recently. You won’t find anyone in there asking why they are posting something in a topic if they aren’t bullish. Childish.

This week on Twitter he has been complaining about Pepsi and Coke, saying they are major causes of bad health…. But he owned McDonalds and Wendy’s as per the article.

I believe that strength work is essential especially as you get older. However, I’ve been training with weights for 20 years, and to be quite honest, I would stay away from Starting Strength. I think Mark Ripptoe’s squat form, in particular, is a recipe for tightness and ultimately injury.

The problem for UK companies is that they are significantly cheaper than comparable US companies, and tend to stay that way.