gfp
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Everything posted by gfp
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I never post on this thread but I will today. I am buying JACK shares here at $1 Billion market cap with all of the negativity surrounding the California fast food minimum wage law and challenging times for restaurants in general (and a horrible chart breaking down to new lows). I actually think Darrin Harris is a very good manager and JACK is back to their share-retirement ways (the long term record of share retirement is very good, it was paused for a bit following the Del Taco acquisition). Refranchising company owned restaurants frees up capital for share repurchases. I would hope they increase repurchases, but even at the recent $25 million per quarter you can take out 10% of shares a year and pay your 3.3% dividend on top of that. Earnings are next week. Similar negativity resulted in a short-covering freak out in El Pollo Loco recently, which has an even heavier weighting to California.
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The article I linked to above was quoting Kamesh Goyal so I would say that is a credible source. This is all very similar to how a US IPO works. Leaks and rumors about pricing, subject to change leading into the final announcement, IPO prices set a bit low to hopefully get a nice enthusiastic pop on day one, etc. etc..
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Did you read my post either time I posted it? It will show up at that link when it is final. Every word in a sentence is important.
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RE: "I get that, where is the actual prospectus that these articles are referring to? I guess this is the first Indian IPO I have ever actually been interested in and it is bizarre. "
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I will just say that I have learned a lot about the Indian love for their cricket icon Virat Kohli through his name being included in virtually every mention of Digit on Indian financial media. Being a resident of south Louisiana, United States, I was not up to date on famous cricketers and this guy sounds like the Michael Jordan of cricket.
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This article quotes the IPO price as being around $3 Billion USD, less than the last fundraising round. https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/go-digits-kamesh-goyal-says-we-took-investor-feedback-to-decide-the-ipo-price-hope-to-give-them-value-12719353.html
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That is what a 'red herring' preliminary prospectus is - a document with a bunch of blanked out sections because they haven't been solidified yet. Even a reported range for the IPO price is subject to change based on demand. 272 INR per share seems low. Even if they price the IPO at 272 it will probably open much higher. There are "selling shareholders," however small, with cost basis of 250 INR / share.
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Maybe someone who attended the formal meeting in person knows, but Warren and CNBC made the wise decision to cut off his televised platform by not live-streaming the formal meeting and shareholder proposals.
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Yes, this year for the first time. At this link, the movie starts at the 30:54 minute mark. It is a new version with much more Munger content but has many of the classic skits that they were able to run down permissions for https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3wLdzddRtI&t=5715s
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The final prospectus will show up at this link when it is final: https://www.sebi.gov.in/sebiweb/home/HomeAction.do?doListing=yes&sid=3&ssid=15&smid=12
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The earlier versions from 2023 contemplated selling almost twice as many shares. 1699616304302.pdf1680765082765.pdf One of these attached files is the original 2023 preliminary prospectus and the other is the "addendum" to that prospectus, filed in November, when they explained how they got in trouble for changing a conversion ratio without fully notifying everyone they were required to. This is the recently resolved matter, slap on the wrist, whatever.
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The most recent filing on SEBI is from May 8, 2024 - attached below. This is a 'red herring' prospectus, what we also call a preliminary prospectus. The filings before this one were also IPO related, from April 2023 and November 10, 2023. Red Herring attached as pdf 1715254865991.pdf
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That's right, they are carrying the 49% (pre-IPO percentage) equity at $152.2 million USD and they are carrying the compulsory convertible pref. shares at approximately $2.092 Billion. If completely converted (regulatory approval needed), this would result in Fairfax owning 68% of Digit (pre-IPO percentage). It looks like the IPO will dilute them slightly and they may choose to sell a few shares in the IPO - I have no idea.
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Fannie and Freddie are considering offering government agency guarantees of 2nd mortgages, which is somewhat analogous to a cash out refi but with a second mortgage you keep your original loan and add a second loan at market rate - https://www.wsj.com/articles/return-of-the-housing-godzillas-fannie-freddie-biden-second-mortgages-f7ac7d77 Here is another opinion piece written by Meredith Whitney on the subject - https://www.ft.com/content/1d287e0c-afda-46f0-9961-9da157b50101
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In case anybody wants more detail on these two subsidiaries, they also file with the SEC. BNSF 10Q - https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/934612/000093461224000009/bni-20240331.htm BHE 10Q - https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001081316/000108131624000010/bhe-20240331.htm
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Just imagine the flak they are going to give poor Greg when he holds $400 Billion in t-bills some day.
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No, cash equivalents + fixed income as a percent of all types of measures is totally in line with the post-General-Re era at Berkshire. The company is just much much bigger and the fixed income portfolio is almost entirely less than 1 year in duration. As many have pointed out, it won't be out of line or excessive at $200 Billion either.
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If they put her on the board of directors, it will be up to her.
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Not sure but it might be this interview - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfkRU5lGAL4 He also did this podcast with a Church in Omaha - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUEh8XZA1o8&list=PLtiYV5RFxrnP9wPTnydOkOhn7CsYX9vj2&index=23 (this second one is really church-y so I think Warren was probably referencing the interview above and not this church podcast)
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So those websites are aggregating a bunch of different disclosures like 13-Fs, 13d, 13g. The companies themselves use those disclosures to name the largest shareholders in their proxy statements. If a manager is not large enough to be required to file 13-F and isn't over 5% or a reporting insider, they can stay anonymous and under the radar.
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I don't think that's how the rules work. Citi is a disclosed position in the 13-F. If it had disappeared while it was confidential that would be one thing, but having it show up as a position while "confidential positions are being omitted" suggests that it isn't anything that is on the list. Citi isn't being omitted from the 13-F.
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No I don't think that is what it is. I think it is something he felt he inherited from his parents and grandparents and wants to pass on. The trust is just the document that remains private that spells out who gets what. The trust is private as far as I know. Charlie had also already distributed a large portion of his net worth to his heirs and various charitable causes. He couldn't sign the giving pledge because he had already distributed over half his net worth to his heirs. He wasn't exactly on the same wavelength as Warren when it comes to dynastic wealth.
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What Is the Best Investment That You've Ever Made?
gfp replied to Blake Hampton's topic in General Discussion
It was kind of a funny story because Warren was suggesting TechData really would have preferred to not be sold to Apollo. So Bank of America called Todd Combs, Todd told Warren, Warren read the reports and sent Greg to go meet with TechData and they made their topping offer. Apollo got it anyway.. https://www.wsj.com/articles/berkshire-is-thwarted-in-its-bid-for-tech-data-11575052756 -
That deal he sent Ted to Canada for was quite a few years ago - Home Capital, 2017. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-home-capital-berkshire-hatha-idUSKBN19D08X/ I believe the recent deal he is considering was mentioned as something he and Greg are looking at.
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If you are like me and were curious after hearing Devon Spurgeon's question, asked through Becky near the end of the meeting, that referenced the Codicils of Charlie's Will as filed with L.A. County - I decided to go download them and am posting them here. These are public record, nothing creepy. Charlie knew these would be public. O89305673.pdf O89305672.pdf O89305671.pdf