gfp

Hard to say - I'm not an academic For me, the most valuable / predictive aspect of a widely observed technical pattern is when the pattern is negated - since that is when human behavior (in the short term, obviously) is the post predictable. The trade I outlined above in Lumentum is an example of betting against the textbook chart people (and a decent sized short interest) before the pattern is negated - but you know very close to my entry price (basis is clearly visible on the chart as the green line) when you are wrong. So losses will be small if you are wrong and it turns out to be a textbook perfect head and shoulders top. This trade had the fundamental backdrop of being part of the physical AI buildout that I am bullish on - in this case photonics - the high speed data communication links necessary for modern data centers. So it fits in the broad bucket of GEV, SMNEY, ABBNY, VRT, CAMT, TSEM, BE - the semiconductor/energy end of the AI build out that I am interested in. It's a thread on technical analysis / chart patterns and I think it's probably more useful for people to understand what happens (in the short term) when a widely observed pattern is broken than it is to say "this is a head and shoulders and you should be short like all the other chart bros." It's the type of trade I've done for many years and it is based on a 26 years of experience with this type of thing. They don't all work out of course but this one was right at the neckline when I posted it and it has so far produced a 13% profit in one trading session so we'll see how this one goes.

What I am doing is nothing like what Renaissance is doing, unless you are basically saying everyone is competing with every other market participant all of the time.

1977 may be when he joined the firm, not when he became CEO. The Jameson family controls the company but apparently Peter's father Marvin Kaufman was one of the founders and probably the reason Peter got the job and moved up quickly. The Jameson family still controls the company today but I'm sure Peter earned significant ownership in the firm besides whatever his father had.

No implications for Fairfax

Maybe time to change the title but there is a thread

I don't know about "best" but I enjoy following Fairlight Capital and they are assembling a good track record so far (fairly short period since inception) https://www.fairlightcapital.com/_files/ugd/a6cb30_2c6c31e59e024979a84cb039ac66819d.pdf

Sometimes my favorite way to use "technical analysis" or widely observed chart patterns or whatever you want to call it - is to place a bet on a chart pattern that's just too perfect and too widely observed that I think will be violated (go against the pattern's textbook result). One mention was the very long term chart of CMCSA the other day but this one looks fun since it has a decent short interest. Narrow line laser monopoly Lumentum - ticker LITE Trade is a prediction that the chart doesn't give the H&S top what everybody is expecting and it breaks out on short covering, where I exit the trade because what do I know about narrow line lasers

https://tas.db.com/FileView/Data.aspx?URL=dbdr/publication/Termination/9897_2026Jan20_154725882.pdf

Sure - I didn't say he was a douchbag, I said he didn't work for Fairfax. He works for himself (and his family's interests). Doesn't make him a bad partner but he's that: a partner.

You stumped me. I feel like if it was something I owned/tracked I would remember that head and shoulders top mid-year. I usually get these because of the way my memory works but this one is too tough!

that's a tough one! Is it a one year chart ending today?

Since 1998 it is very good. I don't know if it is 26% or 30% or what it is exactly but it is in that ballpark

My mom used to date a real weirdo in your neighborhood Mike - named Pete Ronneberg - lived up the hill from you right by the high voltage power lines. Creepy dude!

What does any of that have to do with Bitcoins?

Is it over? Only one fill! It's over!

Seems that everyone everywhere is looking at the same bear flag as 2022 (very very similar price action) and waiting to see it resolve. Will this time be different? Beats me but let the price tell you

How are you going to handle trade reporting for this "fund" ? Are you permitted to go above 100% invested since there is zero cash at inception? Performance tracking live on any website?

BOR-ing!

Well we just had a coordinated intervention with Bessent's help to stem the decline in JPY and KRW against the USD so...

Just that one wild night in Kelly, WY with Ryan Reynolds, Blake, Sokol and a case of Aviation Gin! What a hangover.. https://www.conciergeauctions.com/auctions/6965-e-schwiering-lane-kelly-wyoming-83011 But seriously, what makes you think David Sokol works for Fairfax? They sometimes partner on David Sokol's deals but David Sokol is not a Fairfax employee or likely interested at all in working for Fairfax. David Sokol is running his own family office / private equity firm (Teton) and Fairfax is occasionally a co-investor in a deal (Davos worked out very well, Atlas/Poseidon is in progress, etc) Decent chance Sokol is a billionaire on his own by now. He made a ton of money, largely elected to receive in BRK stock (vs. Abel who took cash)

People like to insinuate on this site that David Sokol works for Fairfax. David Sokol works for David Sokol.

Not even 1 bp of cash! My man! Sounds like someone reads Irrational Analysis blog (one of my favorites, love that guy's style) https://irrationalanalysis.substack.com/p/intels-agentic-dumpster-fire

From Gemini (I'm watching football but Gemini is free) ------------------------- When David Sokol resigned from Berkshire Hathaway in March 2011, Warren Buffett revealed that Sokol had actually attempted to step down on two previous occasions. These earlier attempts were closely tied to Sokol's reputation as Berkshire's "Mr. Fix-it," a nickname he earned by turning around struggling subsidiaries. The 2009 Attempt: The NetJets "Rescue" The most significant of these attempts occurred in mid-2009. At the time, Sokol had expressed a desire to leave the corporate world to focus on his own family office and philanthropic interests. Buffett’s Intervention: Instead of accepting the resignation, Buffett persuaded Sokol to stay by offering him a daunting new challenge: fixing NetJets. The "Fix-it" Role: NetJets, Berkshire’s private jet subsidiary, was in a dire financial state, having lost $711 millionin 2009 and carrying massive debt. The Result: Sokol accepted the role of Chairman and CEO of NetJets in August 2009. Under his leadership, the company underwent a radical restructuring that involved significant cost-cutting and layoffs. Within a year, he successfully turned the company around, posting a $207 million profit in 2010. The Earlier Attempt (Circa 2007/2008) Buffett’s March 2011 press release noted that Sokol had approached him about resigning "twice before," with the 2009 incident being the most recent. While the exact date of the first attempt is less publicized, it is widely believed to have occurred around 2007 or early 2008, coinciding with his work at Johns Manville. The Johns Manville Assignment: Sokol was appointed Chairman of Johns Manville (a building products manufacturer) in early 2007. Like NetJets, it was a business that needed operational discipline. Buffett's Logic: Buffett and other board members successfully argued each time that Sokol was too valuable to the organization. Buffett later wrote, "Berkshire is far more valuable today because we were successful in those efforts [to keep him]." Comparison of Resignation Narratives Detail 2011 Resignation (Final) Earlier Attempts (~2007 & 2009) Reason Given To manage family resources and create a legacy. Identical: family resources and philanthropy. Buffett's Response Accepted immediately. Persuaded him to stay. The "Fix-it" Trade None (Lubrizol controversy was ongoing). Challenged him with NetJets/Johns Manville. Export to Sheets Sokol’s Later Reflection In a 2013 interview with Fox Business, Sokol reflected on these moments with some regret, stating: His exit in 2011 ended a career where he was frequently cited as the frontrunner to succeed Buffett, a trajectory that was fueled by his ability to step into "broken" businesses and make them profitable.

It's a decent article but I still don't think Sokol was Warren't pick to run all of Berkshire. Sokol's resignation wasn't the first time he had tried to resign from Berkshire to focus on his family's resources. Warren has long needed one or more "mr. Fix-it" / bad-cop roles at Berkshire. From Harry Bottle on through time he has preferred to NOT be the one to get his hands dirty, which makes a lot of sense. But your "fixer" isn't likely your pick to run the entire enterprise for decades after you retire the top role.

Again, I highly recommend Jordi's free weekly videos, out Sunday mornings, for anyone interested in AI, the infrastructure build out, scarcity vs. abundance and the huge crowd trying to pick bottoms in the valuation of software companies. As a bonus, you can learn how to get much better at using the AI models in your investment research process. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEtUJN2nfEI (link to a youtube video)