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gfp

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Everything posted by gfp

  1. Go short because IFRS is confusing?
  2. Jaygo I notice you always spell "debt" with a "p" - is that a keyboard thing or a country of origin thing or what? Just curious since it has been consistent.
  3. I am certainly not an expert in any of this but I have heard the idea is to have over 100 different things (drones, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles) arriving around the same time at vastly different speeds, altitudes and directions - hoping to confuse the various air defense systems. With so much preparation I assume close to all of them will be shot down but odds are a couple will get through.
  4. Bitcoin was probably the only market that was open. If you feel like reducing risk and raising cash, you go with the markets that are currently open. Bitcoin is always open.
  5. gfp

    Tidbits

    I saw the founder / promoter / whatever you call him sold $4.5m worth at $30/sh. I assume he has sold more since if allowed to. I am unclear if they can issue new shares at a premium to NAV any time soon. I covered my short with all the Levine attention but it’s been an entertaining and profitable distraction. I even held a short overnight one night
  6. Warren told the story either at an annual meeting or in an interview. Nike was the example but he had Lou liquidate his entire portfolio before he left.
  7. gfp

    Tidbits

    So DXYZ traded above $120/ share multiple times after-hours last night and this morning. Interactive brokers still had shares available to short at that time but the borrow rate was 80-90%. Less than half that price currently. NAV $5. Just a bizarre trading sardine
  8. gfp

    Tidbits

    I don't know what they can or can't do but I don't see how they could get that extra capital invested in private companies very quickly. This thing traded $118.75 after hours tonight. (we are talking about DXYZ in case that is not obvious) Matt Levine wrote about it in his column today, so I'm sure a bunch of people learned what it was that hadn't previously heard about it.
  9. There is this crazy school of thought out there that values companies based on their earning power but Carson knows that.
  10. I love it! If you know something please email it to me!
  11. gfp

    Tidbits

    This Destiny Tech100 closed end fund is wild! Lots of entertainment
  12. I feel like the deferred tax liability will factor in heavily here and that he is spending a huge amount of time talking out these companies with Ted and Todd. I would be really surprised to see a position like American Express or Coca-Cola messed with after Warren passes. I could be wrong but my bet is that some of these are truly treated like the rest of the subsidiaries.
  13. gfp

    Tidbits

    Oh wow - yeah that's $4.84 per share vs $75 per share at one point on Friday. Yikes!
  14. gfp

    Tidbits

    Man, even thought this tightened up to around a ten cent daily range you can still take $900 per swing out of this range each trip. I for one have been enjoying the beer money
  15. Good post Cigarbutt. It probably obvious but of course the corporate income tax has been materially reduced as well.
  16. I don't think he still makes the books. He tells some stories about the margin and first BRK share purchase in '83 here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6bPl1IXlhs
  17. As far as T-bills go, which is where most of the government is funded, the Federal Reserve could do this almost immediately. And it would be incredibly inflationary. Not cost-less. Which kind of highlights the backwards nature of conventional thinking on Fed moves.
  18. Please don't lose any sleep over the social security trust fund.
  19. gfp

    Tidbits

    Presumably the Brussels market is closed and the OTC market in the US is open when he spoke about the stock
  20. Yes the current net interest paid by the Fed is stimulative and should be added to the deficit to determine the amount of fiscal stimulus we are currently getting. But this is stimulus now, not during QE. The net interest paid by the Fed (the losses they are experiencing on their balance sheet) are not big compared to the "regular" fiscal deficit. So - during "QE" they were accidentally taxing the private sector and now that we are inverted and in "QT" their balance sheet is stimulating the economy by paying net interest into the private sector. Not exactly what they were going for on paper...
  21. It sounds like that but in reality it is a swap of some type of Bond for Bank Reserves. Bank reserves are not useful or important and they can't be used to buy stocks or really make their way into the real economy. Lending by large Fed member banks is not constrained by bank reserves in the system. Lending is restrained by capital ratios, demand for loans, appetite to take risk, regulatory changes on what counts for what, etc... New money ("inflation") makes it into the real economy in two primary ways. 1.) The government deficit spends it into the economy. and 2.) Banks make new loans. Swapping one government liability (treasury bond) for another government liability (bank reserves) does not have much of an effect. It used to be that bank reserves didn't pay interest, so QE was actually taking away an interest bearing security that was paying interest to the private sector and leaving the bank with useless, non-interest-bearing, neutered banking system tokens. In that way, QE was the opposite of stimulus. It was more like a tax - and you can see that because the Fed was making a profit on the balance sheet and remitting the extra capital to the treasury. A tax is when money is transferred from the private sector and remitted to the treasury. But then bank reserves started earning interest and the yield curve inverted and then you had bank reserves paying more than the bonds of the Fed's balance sheet so the Fed started running a loss. The only thing QE did of any consequence was slightly tighten mortgage spreads while the Fed was buying those securities. That is it. A few basis points.
  22. Yes, today's "unskilled" labor hauling packs of shingles up an extension ladder on his shoulder is tomorrow's "skilled" roofer. Yes, we need the kid who carries the shingles up the ladder. No, the kid who carries the shingles up the ladder isn't going to ruin your country.
  23. I knew it was coming and Dinar did not make us wait for long. Take a trip out of New York City Dinar. There's a whole country full of hard working Latino immigrants out there literally building the country. It doesn't make sense to send them to NYC. That was a political stunt. Let them naturally flow to where they are needed and have family support systems.
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