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Good luck with that strategy Eldad!

Fairfax investors and other property insurance investors should probably have a listen (or have their assistant summarize the comments around property pricing) to the RYAN conference call last night. As Spek mentioned on the broker thread, property pricing has had a significant pull back. Maybe one cat away from reversing that, but still important to be aware of. As a gulf coast property insurance customer I have heard this is starting to trickle down from reinsurance -> primary -> actual homeowners. Can change on a dime of course. -------------- Ryan executives described the property insurance market as extremely volatile and rapidly softening, especially late in Q4. Pricing weakened meaningfully through the quarter. On large accounts, average rate declines reached around 25% to 35% by December. Management said this trend continued into 2026, with expectations for further declines in property pricing based on current renewals and market sentiment. There were some pockets where admitted carriers returned to write smaller accounts, but these weren’t yet “meaningful” enough to reverse broader pricing softness.

You were correct, I bought a little stock (no calls!) after your post and sold it for a $600 gain this morning so I owe you a beer and a shot

Insider purchases ought to start trickling in. Sure sounded like Pat Ryan would be in the market next week. First one I noticed was AON: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1023262/000119312526048871/xslF345X03/ownership.xml

I own a third of a corn & soybean (alternating annually) farm in Indiana and am not getting more bullish on this stupid farmland investment because of AI. If you want to focus on commodities, focus on energy and scarce metals.

I don't know what this has to do with Fairfax specifically, but I don't see this as a big deal at all. Hell, 20 years ago Progressive started showing their competitors quotes right alongside their own on the website. Consumer / personal lines can be quoted with online forms. ChatGPT is essentially just asking questions to fill out the same online form. No big deal

LOL - you too! can be part of bailing someone else out of a failed land investment!

My college roommate bought a steep lot in the Hollywood hills 15 or 20 years ago. The Hollywood Hills! How can you go wrong?! Lot is unbuildable, nobody will let you carve into the hill to build the foundation, gain driveway access to the street (steep, on a curve) and you can plop a "for sale" sign on it for years and nobody will buy it for what you paid for it. He couldn't even get a neighbor to bite.

My Father in law traded a beat up old pickup truck in the early 70's for a plot of land on the Wolf River in Mississippi. Seemed like a great deal. The land was river-front. The pickup truck was only worth a few hundred bucks. Half a century of paying property taxes on that land later and now Father in law has dementia and they tell me to figure out what to do with the lot. The answer is it is basically impossible to sell and impossible to give it away. The only option is to stop paying the property taxes and let it eventually go back to the county through that process. Nobody would even take it as a donation for conservation because it comes with an ongoing tax liability. I haven't totaled up the 54 years of property taxes but lets just say they would have been better off DCA-ing into stocks

I think it is a mistake young people often make to buy barren, remote, or otherwise inexpensive land just because it is land and it is in their price range. If you can buy some land that is attractive and will be more attractive in the future, stick with that. There are options in the physical world and a ton of easier ones to size to your bonus in the publicly traded world. Just don't buy some useless pile of dirt just to say you have some land.

haha - Sky had a half day bounce from the Super Bowl the other day, all those private jets in San Jose and someone must have noticed Sky's campus. Lasted for one afternoon and a few minutes the next morning. Back to the lows! I'm a buyer but nobody cares about Sky Harbour

Yes, my friend who works at BSY - Bentley Systems (an ADSK competitor in some products) says their niches are generally not at risk. Did mention a lot of layoffs at ADSK, which allowed BSY to pick up some new hires.

Don't think that's it. Why would interest rates have an effect on brokers anyway?

Thanks for the update! Surprised you chose COHR over LITE but I guess LITE is already off to the races. CVRX ought to have some volatility around earnings tomorrow evening. That's one volatile portfolio! It's fully invested zero cash?

Glad that's what you took away as a highlight frommi. I can tell you are keeping up with this stuff

this guy is a very good follow for a daily summary of everything important that happened on the frontiers of AI. you may recognize him from podcasts like all-in and similar stuff. maybe reading these daily summaries every day for a month will help some of you get into the present and move beyond "a lawyer once submitted a chatGPT generated brief in 2023 using ChatGPT-3.5 and it made shit up and that is a useful data point for me today." https://x.com/alexwg/status/2021620145076998334

These are getting so juicy. It will be interesting to see if we get some insider purchases. In my basket, only RYAN (tomorrow after the close) and BWIN (Feb. 26th I believe) haven't reported and are still in blackout periods. I'm a buyer of RYAN, BWIN, AJG and BRO this week and have a decent little picnic basket put together.

My assumption is that Charlie was wondering if they added or subtracted shares to their last disclosed ownership position. CNBC just does the math on Q3 disclosures x today's price

Lots of changes to the initial AMD, CVRX, GTLB, LQDA, RVMD, SNDK, FRFHF portfolio I am assuming... How about a snapshot of the fund's current holdings?

I think CSU is in the capital allocation business and will do just fine. I'm a buyer

I think we can all agree that there are more lucrative places to focus our investment minds than government interest rates at the moment. There is no trend. There is a lot of time wasting. I don't think we see a 5-handle on TNX again this year. Not sure we see a 3 either, but if I had to bet one way or another I would bet we see a "3" in front before we see a "5" The employment situation is about to go through a multi-year, brutal disruption. At the same time inflation comes in "below Fed target." A blip in Oil prices from a possible Iran strike, however likely, is not going to change that.

You guys sound like you are right on top of this stuff.

Another -20% day for a software co - market is getting twitchy https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/11/dassault-systmes-share-price-earnings-software-sell-off.html

This post on X is way too wordy but it might help break through some of the completely out of touch AI perspectives on this message board. Maybe skip ahead a bit to save time. There is an "aha" moment for AI skeptics that comes when you realize that the cutting edge AI tools (the ones that will be completely obsolete in 3 months) are better at doing your job than you are. I've heard it referred to as the "Move 37 moment" - a reference to the AlphaGo documentary/competition, where Go champion Lee Sedol realized on 'move 37' that the AI was capable of creativity and far more advanced than he had given it credit for. THAT WAS 2016!!! Truly ancient history in this industry. If you used a free version of ChatGPT 16 months ago for 15 minutes and think you know where AI is today you are who this article is aiming at. https://x.com/mattshumer_/article/2021256989876109403