gfp

I thought we had a better grasp of monetary basics around here by now. I am disappointed

A tax is not inflation

Interesting that US 10-year yields went the opposite direction than almost everyone in the market was expecting this morning... 4.2 was a major line in the sand and everyone was expecting a move to 4.4. Here we are at 4.145

I think FFH will be at 52% ownership following the IPO, even with the full over allotment (which is primarily OMERS selling into the green shoe

Not sure if I am misunderstanding the discussion here, but I believe any bidder with another control position in an Indian bank (Fairfax, Kotak, etc) will be required to merge that bank with IDBI - not necessarily at the exact moment the deal closes (in fact, that is very unlikely) but as a pre-promised near term step. India does not want "promoters" controlling more than one bank. And they probably want IDBI to be the surviving "brand."

What does that have to do with Fairfax?

You understand this is the Louisiana State house of representatives right?

Yeah I'm not saying I want to be a plumber or have my kid become a plumber. But don't count on a great job at a desk. Huge university loans might warrant a bit more thought than last generation (I hate plumbing)

That's a good guess. Sounds like we are about to (finally) find out. Some FIH cash, CSB bank merger into IBDI, Fairfax mothership capital, outside investors like the usual suspects, GP/LP structure, preferred equity that looks a little like debt. You name it

wow, just read that "letter" - not what I was expecting! What did people use QuickFS for? Is it something that Claude for Excel can do since it has access to S&P CapitalIQ, LSEG, FactSet, newswires, Moody's, Morningstar, Pitchbook, Daloopa, conference call transcripts, and some expert interviews? Or are people too worried about granting Claude the type of access to your computer that these tools ask for?

Yeah, I've been saying for a while that we may not be too happy initially if we "win." Long-term I get Prem's point about banks participating in GDP growth.

I don't think most of these software companies whose stock prices are currently falling are going to be destroyed by AI. I think the narrative that software is abundant and cheap and the narrative around needing fewer employees - "seats" - is enough to compress their market valuations. Then falling prices increases the volume of that narrative. Twitter makes it more "everyone on one side of the boat!" then "now everybody move to the other side!" Finance twitter makes group think narrative almost immediate. AI isn't going to do every person's job. But a person who is using AI tools to their full advantage is considerably more productive than a person who did these jobs a few years ago. The people who don't become experts at getting the most out of the AI tools evolving every week are the ones who will become obsolete in the workforce. It will be very disruptive on many levels. A lot of companies don't even allow their employees to use the AI tools of their choice, maybe limiting them to one MSFT tool at work - so there is no way the employee can spend hours each day learning to get the most out of AI and staying up to date on each new capability (literally every couple of days lately). We need job growth to sustain out current economic model. People are going to be so focused on not seeing mass job destruction in the near term that they might miss the complete lack of new jobs that ultimately becomes the story. It may not be 30% mass layoffs - it may be more sneaky - the 5 million jobs that just never existed. Then, later, it is going to get so ugly in the knowledge workforce that we will have real societal unrest and ultimately some form of universal basic income because elections and stuff like that. It's sad because (some) people get meaning from their work and there are going to be a bunch of aimless Americans searching for a purpose, collecting the government dole. If you have kids, make sure they are skilled users of the AI without just using it to complete their homework without learning anything. Or encourage them do something for a living that is not anywhere near the low hanging fruit of the AI employment disruption (HVAC, Electrical, Plumbing (yuck! not plumbing), welding, homebuilding, general contracting, ...)

You know bad things are coming because Berkshire finally caught a bid

I am buying the Sprott physical uranium trust, or "SPUT" another worthless "asset" with no cash flows that can't be valued so obviously the intrinsic value is zero

at this point I'm just doing trades to f*ck with you guys

I don't know where to post this exactly but this is the substack of the degenerate gambling and highly intelligent chips / data com expert over at Irrational Analysis. If you can handle his style (worth it), there is a lot of useful information in every post. One of the more useful aspects is knowledge of which types of high tech companies to avoid (or use as a funding short if you are some shmancy hedge funder) QCOM GFS CRWV etc... Dude has NO problem talking some trash and he ain't wishy washy New post from this morning https://irrationalanalysis.substack.com/p/226-earnings-roundup-lite-cohr-sitm?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1509468&post_id=186945204&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=oqhe5&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

My bad - I edited my post above " Looks like 55.6 million shares post-IPO without the over allotment (FFH at 52%) ... or ... 55.9 million shares with the full over allotment exercised. The first ~2.2m shares of the over allotment option are actually sold by OMERS out of their existing holding and after that the rest of the over allotment raises new capital for treasury (only 277k shares)"

AGT had 24,236,536 shares when it was taken private at CAD$ 18 per share ($436m CAD) It sounds like AGT will have 68-70 million shares outstanding after the IPO but there is no definitive answer until the IPO prices. EDIT: Looks like 55.6 million shares post-IPO without the over allotment (FFH at 52%) ... or ... 55.9 million shares with the full over allotment exercised. The first ~2.2m shares of the over allotment option are actually sold by OMERS out of their existing holding and after that the rest of the over allotment raises new capital for treasury (only 277k shares)

You're in Florida right? Get on down to the Steak n Shake

The government won't even accept it to satisfy my tax liability!! I mean, right!!?

Nice. Bonus points for the value bros that can pronounce Tchoupitoulas. I've been running between the office and the shop to build this stupid mardi gras ladder bench for the Canadians that are coming to stay with us for Carnival. So much for boycotting the USA! Who brings 3 kids to the mardi gras!?? Yikes

I was visited by ghosts in a dream. One was Dinar and he whispered it in my ear and then I woke up before I could get the "why"

Nice! Kora represent LOL

As a marker of a general reprieve in the software rout, Microsoft has hit 397 which is basically where I've been expecting it to go this entire time. Now it can bounce for long enough for people to forget

Nobody here is likely to enjoy the type of music I listen to but this vinyl record from 2017 is getting a lot of play around the house and the cover of the record is also beautiful to look at. Difficult record to buy in the USA. Mostly available in France. Must listen to the entire record, not just an intro @DooDiligence homework assignment https://music.youtube.com/playlist?list=OLAK5uy_nhYlgHwEejP-oswnmfGf0ZD0sxt7stw_U