SharperDingaan

Lot of the folks who have done this dive are members of the Explorers Club. Almost universally, they would be onboard, so long as the context was one of moving mankind forward. If you die doing what you love (exploration/seeing the unique) and the end is quick (implosion), it is not the worst way to go. Their deaths just should not be vain. SD

Nah, I just have faith in the Securities Act of 2023 being modernized within the next 10 years, ahead of its 100 year anniversary. Modernized to regulate real time trade/confirmation/settlement, widespread CBDC, re-plumbed financial services, crypto-ETFs, crypto exchanges brought into the DSIB/GSIB order, changing reserve currencies, etc., etc. This is the age where mankind is going to Mars, the bottom of the ocean, etc. - and all-of-it with the benefit of incredible technology. Modernizing a critical, and global, near 100 year old Securities Act is just another part of that. It just scares the sh1te out of people, because it is disruption without a guaranteed outcome; no different to everyday life! SD

+1 BTC-EFT adoption will accelerate very rapidly if Blackrock/Fidelity are allowed to offer them, every other provider will have to rapidly match, and the cumulative impact will be to rapidly make BTC 'legitimate' in the eyes of the older generations. The Securities Act of 1933, also turns 100 in 10 years; most would find it highly likely that this is part of a widespread modernization SD

I hear you; but keep in mind .... Create a BTC-ETF and it's professional portfolio managers/traders buying/selling the BTC, not retail who know squat; those professionals are also managing volatility via options/futures. No different to only 'accredited investors' being allowed to trade high-risk instruments; the investor has the skills/ability/experience to manage the risk. In todays climate, most would expect that allowing a Nasdaq/NYSE traded BTC-ETF also means restricting which exchanges can be used to buy/sell the underlying BTC; those exchanges potentially also being treated as DSIB equivalents, both in NA and Western Europe. DSIB protection, and market forces driving most BTC trading onto the restricted exchanges; making crypto itself much less of a systemic risk. It implies that CBDCs in both NA and Western Europe are ready to go (e-USD, e-EURO, etc.). Live time tracking of funds flow in/out of the banking systems, and into and out of the restricted/dominant crypto exchanges. Simultaneously share tracking data with e-CNY, and it becomes much harder to evade the law. It also implies a changed regulatory point-of-view around BTC. BTC as an acceptable alternative to the diminished privacy of CBDC, 2nd/3rd world wealth destruction via rampant inflation, and sovereign capital controls. Obviously, not good for a Binance; most would expect that PBoC would prefer it also be gone. Lot of volatility for BTC, but most would expect it to be a net positive. Lot of volatility for the development community as well, but one has to think that for many - it doesn't go so well. SD

The reality is that if you wish to curtail crypto-exchange activity, you need a viable alternative with a better value-add. That alternative is a crypto ETF, and related option market; both of which has been widely available ... for years. Crypto ETFs are professionally managed, primarily invested in BTC/ETH, and hedged using CME options/futures. Joe six-pack can participate in 'crypto' at a fraction of the cost, can buy/sell at any time on the liquid exchange at minimal cost, and enjoys the same NASDAQ/NYSE market protection as everyone else. Most would expect that Joe could also margin against the ETF, the same as most other ETFs. Orders of magnitude better than the current approach, and hard to argue against. Create a liquid option market for the BTC-ETF; and retail has the ability to hedge changes in the value of its BTC-ETF. If you are already a major ETF provider; offering both a BTC-ETF and an options market on that BTC-ETF, is going to contribute to sizeable market share. Hence, both Blackrock & Fidelity. Hard to see how this doesn't happen. SD

62, but it's really about now being in my 2nd life-time risk window of opportunity (roughly 58-68). That second decade of reinvention and risk/reward behavior; enabled by paid off mortgages/debt, nephews/kids done with school &/or university, accumulated wealth/pension, time on hands, etc. Refreshing, as it is now the what I want to do, versus what I had to do to pay the bills. No intention of retiring, but I have gotten a lot more predatory on the investment front. Back in my 20's I didn't have the investment expertise, investment experience, investment capital, fraud detection and bullshit filters that I have today; yet todays investment world is largely the same as it was back then, albeit with new wrappers. Then along comes both BTC and UBS/CS All about the reinvention, and not being married to doing the same thing over and over. Good luck! SD

It's beer making season ... been out-of-office for a while. For the most part the only people who need a crypto exchange, are those associated with the development community in some way. Crypto ETF's are widely available, some even have an option market, and investor protections are far better. Joe six-pack can do his crypto trade via any of a number of wealth management apps, he doesn't need a crypto exchange. Same as illegal drug dealing, regulatory requirements just drive a crypto exchange off-shore; all else remains the same. A great many crypto 'projects' are tech solutions looking for a market - that doesn't exist. CBDC is far better than the now obsolete 'Digi dollars', most Stable Coin works far better as a securitization vehicle, vs as a collateralization tool. Tokenization is not marketable until enabling laws exists; 'build it and they will come!' is a nice slogan, but not a viable business strategy. Reduce the continuous VC funding, reduce the number of crypto exchanges enabling liquidity, and much of crypto collapses. Higher BTC price volatility as a trading opportunity. Blockchain remains a work-in-progress until affordable 'Blockchain Office' implementation tools can be bought off the shelf; most would expect that in a NA or Europe this is at least a decade away, maybe a little sooner in an Estonia. It will also not occur until stakeholders grant the social license to proceed with blockchain implementation. In the meantime .... Expect CBDC to become increasingly mainstream, and the roll-out of updated securities trade/confirmation/settlement; financial industry disruption. Expect regulated and local blockchain exchanges around green/grid electricity, and national regulated carbon credit trading platforms. Local platforms buying/selling local solar/wind generated electricity, for local use, throughout the 24-hour day; regulated carbon trading platforms overseen by central banks, with the validity of all traded credits verified by national Auditor Generals on a ongoing basis. IT increasingly returning to 'normal' business arrangements. Business making the business case, managing stakeholders, ranking projects on a NPV basis, and funding; IT doing the actual build and testing. This is 2023; you cannot build atomic bombs and claim that you aren't responsible for the radiation that the explosion releases. Exciting times! and a great time to be a young person. SD

You might want to do the tax refund PV calculations around the RRSP. If you intend to delay taking public pensions until you work until your 72nd birthday, a $1M RRSP at time of retirement becomes a liability as the combination of minimum drawdowns, plus enhanced public and private pensions will start to claw back public pension. Present value that $1M back to today at your expected long-term CAGR; after a while, it's better to pay down mortgage than continue contributing to the RRSP. In your early years, the drum-beat is 'max out your RRSP' and contribute the tax refund to the TFSA. In your later years it's 'max out your TFSA' and use the TFSA for market timing; when markets are buoyant sell/take the gains, contribute to your taxable investment account, and create new TFSA room; the following year when markets are low, take from your taxable investment account, and max out the contribution to the TFSA. Repeat, and the accumulating tax free roundtrip gains in the TFSA build the equity in your taxable investment account. Reduce your risk by parking the build in Canada's/GIC's with YTM's > 5% Lots of ways to play, but all of it is long-term. SD

It works a lot better with a LoC collateralized against a TFSA, passing funds through a taxable investment account, that constantly contributes up to the maximum TFSA lifetime limit at the beginning of the year. Lowest possible interest rate on the LoC, monthly interest cash cost covered via draws on the TFSA, all gains/dividends in the TFSA tax free, and an interest tax deduction at the end of every year (smith maneuver). Transfer out of the TFSA more than you contributed, and the tax free accumulated gains/dividends become additional TFSA room (up to the current lifetime limit). Keep everything in the TFSA and a lifetime of annual contributions/dividends/gains avoids future public pension claw-backs, mandatory minimum RRSP withdrawals, and passes its contents on to named beneficiaries tax free. Invest some of it in co-owned property (anywhere in the world), and get additional benefit. If the TFSA owns part of a 2nd property; an otherwise taxable gain on sale becomes non taxable - whether that 2nd property is in Canadian ski-country, a condo in a university town (where your kid is at school ), or a holiday Airbnb rental on a Greek island. Point is ... take the long-term view around a TFSA, and the utility of this account radically changes ... all for the good Obviously, not for everybody ..... SD

I did a version of this in my early 50's, but chose a trade (Master Brewer) over yet another professional designation; today, I can contract pack/brew to PPM along with the best of them, and over a variety of kit! However, there was never any intent of working for an InBev; it was all about having fun with the process, and potentially having my own brewery down the pike. An upgrade from former bootlegging days! It was an incredibly refreshing change of pace, and I ended up doing two internships; one in the UK, and one in Kenya. Got paid squat!, but learnt how to make both Trooper (Iron Maiden) and Tusker, how to flog the stuff, and a few new import/export tricks along the way. And down the pike .... I have a part interest in a craft brewer. Took the view early on that 'legacy' is not just about leaving a stash of cash, it's also about demonstrating a life well lived. Grab life by the cohunes, and SQUEEZE Good luck! SD

A good chunk of that 13% is the Air B&B crowd; multiple properties cross-mortgaged against each other, running a negative carry every month, that is financed via a HELOC. More than a few were also laundromats; all else equal if they are not refinanced, when the mortgages are eventually called in, multiple houses will hit the market at the same time. Probably high-up on the BoC wish list. Most GIC's are now paying 3-4x what they were even 18 months ago; and at times it's often worthwhile to cash-in the old low rate GICs, pay the penalty, and reinvest in new high rate GIC's. Yield chasing not only diminishes, it gives the BoC a lot of extra 'security' as well (domestic income spent domestically). Of course if you're an analyst/reporter with < 10 years experience, this is all brand new to you! Opportunities to play the 'spin' The only 'structural' thing here is yield curves, returning to their historic term premium and normal shape; to get there is a matter of draining liquidity overall (raise the curve), and draining in the longer term faster than in the shorter term (raise term premium). The mystery is how soon, and how fast .... look to how many of the big borrowers have been terming debt out, and trying to borrow whatever they can Over the long-term, Toronto/Vancouver continues to gentrify, those who can't afford it move out, and we have hybrid work from home as a routine thing. 'Go' buses/trains move over to hybrid and full electrification; public transit networks branch out from rail lines, and improve connectivity/reliability. Via Rail electrifies from Windsor through Quebec City, and becomes part of upgraded electric grid. The middle-aged with kids move to the 'burbs, the 'aged' and the 'young' move downtown as costs come back down. Not a lot different than it is in most other global cities. SD

Agreed re Vancouver/Toronto. Toronto supply remains tight primarily because boomers aren't downsizing, newer buyers are being propped up by family, and most all new builds were pre-sold before they came to market. While higher interest rates is pushing some property into the market, it is primarily going to the 1st quartile of new immigrants. Where owners of new builds weren't able to maintain commitments (common), construction of the new build just wasn't initiated. The tipping point will be when the Air B&B landlords are forced to sell their empires; a while yet. Thing is, it's also a very narrow market, Calgary and Edmonton are quite a bit different. Nothing prevents a 'partnership' buying a house there, and renting it out; kids on the property ladder early, using the various tax plans available Should o/g came back at some point, and Alberta booms again, so does the value of the house. Obviously, property is mostly a 'mind-set' thing; but keeping an 'open mind' could take you a long way. We hold our 'cash' in T-Bills, UBS/CS, and BTC; we're also aggressive, so not for everyone. Look at the Purpose ETF's and their ETF options on the Montreal Exchange SD

This is press spin; the reality is that 'structurally higher interest rates' will only be temporary. Simply 'cause as more people get forced into selling their homes because the mortgage is no longer affordable, that rise in supply will rapidly lower house prices. More cash going to debt service, and less borrow capacity from the lower housing value, lowers spend, lowers employment, and lowers the interest rate. The real question is how best to use the deliberate 'spin' of 'highest interest rate in 20+ years'; versus 'the end of record low interest rates', and 'return to historic interest rates'. Canadian banks will do very well, but there are a lot of better alternatives. Normal curve restoration, extended real estate loan provisioning, CBDC, fintech, etc. are still to come, and will take at least a decade to flush through. While all though that time electric grids are being rebuilt, transport fleets moved over to electric, and lower income housing being built/re-built in mass, etc. Not a bad thing. SD

Conceptually, it's actually a very smart solution. Off-shore wind is limited to the shallow continental shelf, is stationary, and the cost of under-sea cabling to bring the power to a fixed point on-shore. This kicks off changes in floating wind power generation, ability to move the power itself closer to where it is needed, and ability to offload to wherever there are power-jacks and grid; enormously valuable in temporary coastal disaster relief. SD

Sadly, I have to save these, and it works much much better on the Swiss (UBS/CS) Too much of this gets you assassinated. SD

Add the cost of working (taxes, clothes, transport, etc.) to the cost of paid childcare per child, and most mothers would be far better off staying at home; especially if the plan is for more than one kid within 2-3 years. However, mention this to your spouse, and you are very quickly a dead man! It takes a lot of courage to buck the crowd, and it is especially hard for a 'super-women'. Social conditioning exists for a reason, and the powers-that-be get highly annoyed when too many people take the red pill. A few 'bolshies' is healthy; a swarm of them just screws up your day! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_pill_and_blue_pill https://www.thefreedictionary.com/bolshie SD

Just to make this very clear ... The risk here isn't the bank, it is the sudden transfer in ownership of IB's share of the bank. The strong possibility that it temporarily rocks the market. I suggest Riksbank as the bank is systemically important, experienced, and well placed to orchestrate a subsequent share sale. Typically the event itself draws a lot of negative press, and a short period of 'phony bank', before greed kicks in. Puts to capture the initial announcement, immediately rolled into long calls right afterward. However, you still need to live while all this takes place; hence staying under deposit insurance caps, and keeping a higher cash balance on hand. Experience. SD

Agreed, there is nothing like witnessing sheriff auctions; to drive home the importance of always having your downside covered. The upside is that you also become very good at exploiting the positive side of risk, and it has served us very well. Sadly we're already committed to UBS/CS, and will be in there for at least the next year as the various spin-offs go to market. Pretty sure we're going to do very well; if only because the Marx Brothers need to clear the egg of their faces, and can only do it by 'guaranteeing' very successful spin-offs. We have saved tens of thousands of jobs in our banking industry, we have the strongest banks in the entire world, 'swiss finish', etc., etc. ...... You might want to keep more cash on hand; check the guaranteed deposit maximums in Sweden, move funds around to get under them; and invest in some long dated puts. When things happen they will happen fast, and most likely over a weekend. Given the chocolate makers poor experience expect to wake up to the Riksbank as a majority partner, and a healthy option gain. Could pay off a mortgage Take care. SD

The Iceland reference was to highlight some key facts ..... What happened in Iceland was very bad; however Icelanders are hard asses, and told their creditors to f*** *** with their demands. This is what we will pay, take it or leave it; your choice. Hissy fits and 'dire' threats all over; yet a decade later ? it's still the same major banks, and house prices are 3x higher than they were. Sh1te happens, there is disruption, but it doesn't really change anything. Each nation has its own peculiarities. Iceland has that large pool of expat 2nd home purchasers. Sweden has that 140 year+ mortgage amortization and 'structured' loans - whatever issues we have today can be relieved at a higher cost in a later term. Identical to the Icelandic this is what we can pay, take it or leave it; inclusive of the hissy fit - it would just execute differently in a Sweden than in a Iceland. Of course, not great if you own shares in a major Swedish bank. But if even the major Icelandic banks did not go under despite a much worse disruption, would it not also be reasonable to expect much the same of the major Swedish banks? And .... if an enterprising lad had puts on those banks and had borrowed in Krone against a Swedish property to invest in US T-Bills ... wouldn't this disruption be an opportunity ? Possibly measured as ownership of an additional property !! Then look at the land of high mountains and chocolate .... Lots of disruption, used to be two big banks, then there was one ... now maybe its back to two? (meet the new boss, same as the old boss!). Most would have to conclude that this is the norm, not the exception. And if so .... Sweden is an opportunity! Different strokes. SD

You might find it useful to look at Iceland ... the Iceland financial crises was 2008-2011 https://guidetoiceland.is/history-culture/how-to-purchase-property-in-iceland-a-homeowner-s-guide https://tradingeconomics.com/iceland/housing-index The index shows a level of roughly 225 through the financial crises; today it is about 700. 3.11x over 11 years .... seem familiar? The guide makes the point that it's hard to buy real estate in Iceland unless you have Icelandic connections, and that most of the price rise is attributable to Icelanders working abroad buying their 2nd home in Iceland. The familiar leave, make your money elsewhere, and return to a fully renovated and paid off house in a low cost of living community ... the more you need a nearby hospital, airport, infrastructure, etc. the more you pay ..... seem familiar ? House prices only fall if mortgagees can no longer cover the cost, everyone has to sell, and all at the same time. Very, very unlikely in Iceland as prices are held up by repatriation dollars and relatively few with mortgages. It might look a little different in Sweden, but it is hard to see it being much different than Iceland. Just keep an eye on how many residents you see walking around with options/investment textbooks. It doesn't work out too well !! SD

Typically the more dense the medium the faster the transmission speed, and the less energy absorption there is; in close-up application, the collector is working primarily off energy absorption, and echo reflection from disturbances. The detectors signal feed is calibrated to what is expected, the exceptions amplified, and then run through an algorithm to determine potential attribution. Drill 2-3 holes, put the detectors in both the holes and on the surface, and you can get a localized computer generated 3D interpretation with minimal disturbance. While the tech is not overly precise, versions of it have been in European use for decades as a means of detecting unexploded bombs. In archaeology, bones show up as a hard echo return. As there is more space to work with in remote locations, emitters can be on the surface and using a much more powerful signal, whilst detectors can be either on the surface (some distance away) or in the substrate itself. Were this o/g you would use the geophysics to find oil/gas traps in the sediment layers, and estimate what is there; thereafter if it is promising, it would be drilled to prove if you're correct or not. The value-add is in the interpreting algorithm; the emitters/detectors used to generate/collect signal are old technology. And as with all AI, the more data that you can train it on the better it gets. The tech that we were using could detect iron vs concrete vs plastic pipes, eliminate aluminum cans and shrapnel, and draw 'interpretive' 3D maps of piping, foundations and underground anomalies, adjusted for land slip over the years. Bomb craters and graves showing up as undefined black blobs. SD

Keep in mind that where you live has a lot to do with this view. We have a great many UK acquaintances who are depressed ... almost entirely because they live in the UK. Lots of reasons .... high inflation, high interest rates, too much debt, widespread mismanagement, debasing pound, loss of EU status, yada, yada. Yet ..... despite such a terrible environment .... almost nobody is willing to get on a plane? ... and leave for greener pastures ?? There are a lot of very good invitation-only private UK companies for sale, going for a song; simply because the founders want to partner up, cut back on their involvement, and train up a successor. They are tremendous opportunities, and we have a nephew in such a partnership. During our London property re-development, we used seismic detection to assess ground stability net of land disturbances (heavily bombed area during WWII) and burial sites. Small diameter directional drilling, placement of a seismic vibrator in different sections of the bore, and an electronic detector. As seismic waves travel differently through voids/disturbances vs solids, the time differences can be used to both locate the disturbance in 3D, and estimate its shape; very useful when council planning requirements are an issue. Some discussion later, and we're using the technology for burial detection in flooded areas (Canada's residential schools), and geo-locating dinosaur bones in bogs/sedimentary basins. The nephew being on two digs this season. SD

The reality is that the 'west' is a waning global power, and 'China' a rising one; both sides use propaganda to rally the troops. However everyone has to live somewhere, and propaganda is just another cost of living. The other reality is that the more scorpions in the bottle the safer it is for everyone. When done well; dictators rise on heaps of skulls, to be replaced by global powers every decade. Defense spending develops/drives new technologies, diplomats talk, peace and trade prevails, and the world is a pretty good place. But same as with wildfires, if the accumulating fuel isn't periodically burnt off (ongoing regional wars/conflicts); when the fire eventually happens ... it now burns everything. Sadly, extended periods of peace breed complacency, which triggers the next conflict; about every 70 years for a Europe. Leadership changes, and the concurrent death/destruction lays the groundwork for the next 50 years of rebuilding and prosperity. Ukraine, elimination of Putin, yada, yada ... The present day lower-level 'West' vs China conflicts are actually a good thing. The pushbacks will find a norm, and ambitious men/women on both sides will work the shadows the same as occurred throughout the cold war. Both sides benefit from the military spend and technology acceleration. It really means more things produced at home, and higher prices than we currently pay (inflation). During the cold war the 'west' did not rely on product made in Russia, so why would you expect the 'west' to rely on cheap product made in China today? SD

Just keep in mind that capex investment is often deceptive; and Exxon is a good example. What is Exxon actually doing? It continues to buy back stock in a big way, and has chosen to accelerate maintenance expense instead of having to pay the money out as 'windfall' taxes. Where is that additional capex going? Primarily into things that either reduce depletion/reduce production costs/lengthen reserve life, or enhance ESG reporting (lower emissions, etc.). Why? The more extractable oil there is the lower the cost/bbl, and the better the ESG; the less pressure on Exxon to sell 'dirty' assets, at a deep loss. X% of net income before tax, about equal to the incremental capex. Smart. SD

You might want to look at hard economics, and not press releases. We are entering a world when there will be a lot less oil usage, as energy consumption moves away from both internal combustion engines, and plastics; the major users of oil. Over the long-term; less demand, on the same supply adds up to a lower future price, and a shut-in of all fields with a marginal variable cash cost/bbl above that future expected price. An off-shore field is economic, primarily because it is both prolific and expected to have a long life; either because of low decline rates, or ability to tie into additional nearby reserves at low cost. You need to add the interest cost on the development debt/expected life/expected annual bbl output, to the variable cash cost/bbl; if it is above that future expected price the field is uneconomic, and not developed. But if you are a major, and you collectively stop developing new off-shore fields (i.e. discipline), supply shrinks and that future expected price will be higher than it otherwise might have been. The existing off-shore fields that you already produce from will be able to produce for longer, you will not have to finance anything much more than maintenance capex, and you can use the massive cashflow savings to pay down debt, buy back shares, pay dividends, etc. Exactly what we see happening today. At the same average oil price; a field with a 25 year reserve life will typically have a payback period of < 10 years, and will be highly profitable from then on until roughly the last 5-8 years of expected life. At which point profitability will sink according to the cost of secondary and tertiary recovery, divided by the expected life extension (35-25 years). Of course the reality is that oil prices will move up/down, and the field will either boom or shut-in as price changes. There is lots of undeveloped oil in the world. It is just not economic to produce, and is becoming even less so as we all move to alternative sources of energy. The mindset of 'we have to develop it' .... just isn't true anymore, the world has moved on. SD