SharperDingaan

There's is little doubt that over time, FAH could build a solid business in Africa. But it is wealth in an isolated gilded cage, and only local - try to convert that wealth into hard currency, and most often - investors will be disappointed. Always a devaluation + liquidity discount, the size of which will vary according to money flow in/out of the MCSI index. Colonialism has been much maligned across Africa, but the reality is that the business model was very successful. Colonialism 2.0, is even more effective - let the natives control the domestic assets (saving on upkeep), and control distribution/sale of the output instead (minerals, food, exports, etc.). China's Belt & Road initiative, in various african nations, a more recent example. We may decry Colonialism 2.0 as a business model - but if you own a cottage/holiday property, you are practicing exactly that. The municipality services the area as it sees fit, sets the taxes, you pay them. You take the benefits of the property/area, and sell/use them for as much you can get. If you don't believe - look at the seasonal towns, swamped by large numbers of long weekend 'outsiders' - some bearing covid-19. Who is doing the protesting? Point is, this might be an opportune time to rethink the approach. Hopefully, they do well, no matter the decision. SD

Depends on what's a "reasonable time frame". The time frame I see most often in the media is 12-18 months. It's hard not to be doubtful of that claim. From what I at this point we have the knowledge and capability to pretty much make any (most?) vaccine in 12-18 months. So I'm not so worried about the time frame. What I'm worried when it comes to the vaccine is: 1. Will it be any good? 2. Will the moron internet people actually get vaccinated? I am by no means an anti vaccination individual. Get your vaccines and trust science. That being said, I don’t get the flu vaccine every year, and a vaccine produced for a virus we don’t truly understand does give me a bit of pause. I’m pretty much extremely low risk for covid to begin with. I probably would get it anyways, but seeing a vaccine rushed to market without any significant length of testing/long term effect analysis does make me think twice. There are people on here saying that hydroxychloroquine hasn’t been tested enough and verified with long term effects. Wouldn’t it make logical sense to be just as hesitant regarding a vaccine? An accelerated covid-19 vaccine is not going to be rapidly accepted, until the public sees whether large numbers of the high-profile 'volunteers', get the virus or or not. Nice if they don't die (for social media clips), but no different to the tried and true poison testers of old. Show me, don't tell me :) SD

Hate to say it, but FFH really needs to rethink this entire thing. After FX devaluation, the investments will have to be stellar performers - just to break even. Until Covid-19 has run its course -simply put the cash into more robust entities (Barrick, Anglo-American, etc) doing acquisitions in the space. They will be the first to recover, and their shares are liquid - allowing easy exit at any time. Reassess later once the survivors are evident, and everyone is looking for recapitalization investment. Africa is not a place where the wealth is made by owning the capital stock. It is made by selling the annual production at a profit abroad, and returning only enough capital for maintenance capex & modest growth. Capital assets routinely get nationalized, and African countries routinely devalue. SD

Envy isn't unlearnt. The antidote, is all about subtly 're-setting' game decision matrices. Many a shepherd/women knows that's all that's required to break up a 'bromance', is to parade an attractive/available women in front of them. Competition will do the rest, cause both bro's to become available, and put both women first in line. Everybody wins. Of course - the trick is to recognize when YOU are being gamed! Talk to your significant other - you'll soon discover that you haven't a clue :) SD

Without envy, it would be very hard to motivate your sales force. If they aren't hungry, they aren't selling - and you're the evil bastard game-setting by putting the 'standards/expectations' in their heads. SD

I have used play accounts for much the same reason as LC. Primarily to train in the mechanics of the asset class, and the associated emotional highs/lows. The bad times typically more valuable than the good. I have also used them to side-car long-term positions that I did not wish to sell - to prevent them from influencing the main portfolio. Given your purpose, and location, the obvious choice is SPY puts. Simply because the changing election prospects are already part of the daily index. Make money, as long as the election result is likely to produce significant change, good or bad. Just be mindful that if you end up keeping the 'funny money', while those around you lost their shirts, you will be resented. Not a lot of fun, should the economy settle somewhere between the Great Recession, and the Great Depression, for a time. SD

On food production.. A very large % of existing production is extremely wasteful, and just goes to landfill, particularly in the US - the limitations are water availability, and production volumes at the expense of quality, and wastage. The 'solution' is increasingly being seen as integrated, drip-fed vertical greenhouses and fish/shrimp farms, in run-down urban centres - processing waste water. The poorest neighbourhoods eating the freshest, and highest quality, fish/veggies - because they are the cheapest food available, grown in the neighbourhood, and the largest local employer. The 'farm' now in the city itself - not hundreds of km away. And yes - fish/veggies are not the only tings that are grown in these. Gotta maintain a cash flow :) .... SD

How the words are strung, how they are expressed, and which words/phrases are used. Partially accent as well. Main point being that you will not 'sound' American (which is much harsher), which you will do if if you learn Spanish in the US. The Lima experience is to add harshness, and fluency in the local slang. Dilute your use of American slang as much as possible. To use a Canadian example, there is Quebecois, and there is Parisienne French - both are French, but each are instantly recognizable. There's no mistaking where the French guy muttering Tabarnac! comes from. Similar thing with Spanish. SD

Probably my biggest take-away from traveling was exactly this: I met several people with 1/100 of the assets/salaries of us here in the west, but they were 100x happier. Puts our first-world problems in perspective and frankly how unnecessarily we grind so hard and become so unhappy. Been to ~50 countries and agree with both of these big time. Once we get past the pandemic, I'm going to look heavily into digital nomading/slow travel. It's not that expansive in most places in the third world. You just need to find a place to rent monthly. In places like Mexico my cost has been between 500 to 1000 dollars per month. Yeah, was mainly saying that due to my US passport and the virus outbreak, I'm persona non grata for most places in the world currently. I think I'd target SE Asia starting out, Vietnam or Thailand. Really liked Da Nang when I was there in November. Though eventually would like to try Buenos Aires, Santiago, and Medellin. I'm absolutely not a warm weather person so would have to migrate in the summers (or get closer to the poles where it'd be cooler). With US citizenship, you might want to confine your traveling (until AFTER the elections) to just the major centres. In a great many places, a US citizen is a ATM machine. Each one worth a lifetime's earnings, if grabbed for K&R, and sold up the chain. Grab &/or early release, typically a function of how you/your government are perceived. South America is a great place, with great people - but it will help you tremendously if you can speak Spanish, and eat local. A few months in Quito (Ecuador) at Spanish School, then Lima (Peru) to polish it up. Why Quito? Dialect matters, and it will affect how you are perceived. Why Lima? It's cheap (by NA standards), and the jump-off point to the Galapagos, Manchu Picchu, and the Nazca Lines. Highly recommend a 3-4 month stay in Buenos Aires. It really is the Paris of South America. A 2-3 month stay in Rio de Janeiro, straddling Carnival, is also something that you will never forget! Enjoy! SD

Oh, I love this.. especially Marlon Brando's #3 "Try not to enjoy yourself too much" LOL Man's got to know his limitations ... https://video.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?fr=yhs-symantec-ext_onb&hsimp=yhs-ext_onb&hspart=symantec&p=a+man+has+no+know+his+limitations#id=3&vid=806b595af7f61ef8447fadee1c6baf01&action=click SD

Welcome back! Long ago I was advised by a very smart CEO, that I could expect to be no more than a 'so-so' investor - UNTIL I had built and run a business. Simply because running a business, is all about successfully working with people, to produce something profitable that the communities around you need. The 'investment' side is nice, but secondary to the day-to-day management. The takeaways were that (1) Being an arsehole is a short-term proposition. EQ will take you a lot further, (2) Treasury/trading is just a silo. Be good at it, but realize that you are just one of many silos, and (3) Leadership is gold. It comes with responsibility, but do it well - and you can rule the world. I would add to this, that to learn humility - you really need to travel, and see/smell the world up close. There are amazing people almost everywhere you look. SD

Have fun, and keep lurking ;) Best of luck SD

I've always found that the 'rule of 3' works very well :) 1. Sh1te happens. When somebody crosses you. accept the one-time cost - but have a friendly quiet word with them afterwards. 2. Angels tithe. When you're crossed again, accept the cost, but take precautions. Blunt discussion with the tone deaf. 3. Horse's head. Maximum recompense, no holds barred, try not to enjoy yourself too much. SD

What is optimal depends on your career plan. Whether you choose the accounting or investment route, when you start – you need to be in a Big-4, no older than 22-24, an undergrad from a top school, the right skin tone, have ‘connections’, and there to obtain the experience component of a designation. Same process whether the designation is a CPA or a CFA. Widespread abuse, par-for-the-course. Don’t meet the criteria? you will always be 2nd fiddle to those who do. Sure, you might be smarter – but if you’re too old, not the ‘right’ school, wrong colour, or no connections …. you will be 2nd fiddle for life. If this is you, play a different game. A great many CPA’s and CFA’s are also MBA’s - particularly if the plan is to become senior management at some point; a fairly high % hold all 3 designations. And almost all of them will tell you than once you grow up - you build and run companies, not trade bits of paper. Back to the plan, and is there one? Then what have you done today - to make the plan happen? SD

You were hired by a Big-4 audit firm because you are pursing a CPA - is that off the table now? What is the career plan? SD

Masks are about reducing the ability of Covid-19 to spread, NOT preventing spread. Covid-19 is a global pandemic - YOU, as one of the vast majority of people on the globe, are going to get it. Your hope is that you can either get vaccinated before contracting Covid-19, or that there is a ventilator available should you need one. Freedoms are great, but they come with responsibilities. Don't act responsibly, you die. Bar owners, restaurants, etc. COLLECTIVELY pushed for early re-opening, reduced social distancing, and no masks - so that they could avoid bankruptcy. Patron, and staff deaths, are just another cost of doing business. Easily replaced. The real fear to Covid-19 is that 'wealth/status doesn't save you'. Whether that be the size of your bank account, your 'class', or the colour of your skin. Sure, you can buy the best care, but once on the ventilator - the family has incentive to pull the plug. You are either spending the family inheritance, or splitting the inheritance too many ways .... better for all if you don't 'linger'. SD

Same thing in Ontario (Canada). Part on-line/in-class being pushed as it also addresses child care (assumes a parent/guardian) is at home on the on-line days. SD

Agreed, Bitcoin is not what most would consider a safe haven. However, if you are willing to continuously hedge via puts, you ARE protected against price decline during the life of the puts - as you would be in any market. Comes down to the reason for the Bitcoin, and whether the holding is temporary or not. More relevant, is that people are slowly realizing that widespread QE means widespread FX devaluation. Not noticeable if relative to each other, the other major currencies devalue at about the same rate. But much more noticeable if ONE of the currencies (gold) is devaluing at a slower rate (additional net supply of gold/year). The slower depreciating currency appreciates. SD

And once again....Bitcoin down 43% over the last 24 hours. This is NOT a safe haven asset. It’s volatile to be sure. For a new asset class that has only existed for a few years, it’s to be expected. Still, up over 33% since this last comment. What I’m really interested in seeing is how it performs once the wealth taxes, capital controls and bail-ins start happening. No doubt. To be clear - I own it. I'm not detracting from Bitcoin ownership at all. Just cautioning that it is NOT a safe-haven asset and juxtaposing it's performance against other "safe-haven" or "crisis-hedge" type assets. If you own this going into a crisis and you're in for a wild-ride like the 50% price dump we saw over-night in March. Safe haven's don't do that. Best case scenario is that it has zero correlation to stocks. Most likely case is that it is slightly correlated to stocks because it is a risk-based asset class for those seeking risk exposure. Think of 'safe haven' - as Long Bitcoin PLUS Long Bitcoin Put. Every time it drops radically sell the put, buy it back on the bounce, keep the cash difference. Volatility is your friend ;) Just keep in mind that Bitcoin options are NOT a deep market. Same thing, but on the major indexes, is a lot safer. SD

There's a reason why there is so much volatility. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-options-market-faces-record-165729812.html SD

Storage doesn't get used until the market goes into backwardation (spot > future price). Highest cost storage (floating) drawn down first, SPR last. How fast a draw down depends on the future-spot price, vs the cost of storage at that term. For the most part, spot is driven by demand vs on-line supply; cut back on-line supply, and spot rises. The limitation is how much storage (additional supply) comes onto the market as the spot price rises, which algorithms are pretty good at predicting. Keep the on-line supply constrained, while demand rises - and spot either rises, or storage rapidly depletes (to meet the incremental demand). Most would expect WTI spot to settle in the USD 45-50 range, and thereafter a near-term focus on reducing storage to historic levels. Assuming ongoing capital discipline - too low a price for US shale to start back up. SD

Just to add to this ... OLD shale wells are actually pretty good low decline rate assets - as long as the rock is porous. Raise reservoir pressure (water, CO2 injection) and you both increase flow, and get paid to safely dispose of the toxics (frac water, CO2, etc) that you are injecting. But it's a very different business model, it works better when there are carbon caps (Kyoto Agreement) and CO2 trading (Canada), it's the long game, and it is not viable unless the old field can be bought at cents on the dollar (BK purchases). Hated by many in industry, as the entire approach is contrary to the bulk of existing practice (lowest cost, immediate production). Increasingly embraced by regulators as the near-term infrastructure solution to new production (more pollution) while staying under the carbon cap (injection removing pollution). SD

Short-term, it's all about how rapidly demand returns, as the global economy recovers from Covid-19. Sustainability depending upon how effectively, and for how long, capital discipline is imposed on US shale. Medium term it's a crap shoot - largely dependent upon how long it takes to replace/update the global electric grid. No upgraded distribution - no clean energy, no electric vehicles. However, under Covid-19, the medium term is probably a lot closer than it was - if only because grid section replacements are high-value (and nation-wide) infrastructure projects, that would hire a lot of people. And both China, and India, have strong incentive to get off oil demand as early as possible. Existing o/g will be will remain with us for a long while yet, but the sun is starting to set on just burning the stuff. SD

Compare the current vs prior year numbers by location. Of the 1,124 rigs dropped; 62% were from the US, 29% were international - but only 9% were from Canada. Very telling. SD

Good point about the share of the worlds best talent. Will the pool of the world's best talent grow much faster than world population (perhaps via expanded and cheap online education)? I have a question: what percentage of today's best talent are currently impoverished and underutilized, not making it into engineering programs? When I was at Microsoft, I kept bumping into Indian engineers and it seemed as though not one of them grew up dirt poor, even though so much of the country is dirt poor. Depending on the source, there are 2B+ people world-wide who are 'unbanked'. The target of most free solar panels, free computers, free water-bores, free high-speed internet, etc. The close follow-up being on-line health, drone delivery of medicine in the field, and diminished spread of disease. Street smarts leveraged by technology, doing things in the places that really matter. The harder sciences (medicine, engineering, etc) have always been the preserve of the rich - because only they could afford the cost of the training; but it just doesn't produce enough of them. The industrialist's solution was to find the best of those who couldn't afford it, send them to school (Oxford, Mining Schools), apprentice them under their best men in the field, and give them free reign in the running of their various enterprises around the globe. The technologist's solution is essentially the same, but with the addition of technology to leverage the output. Find the tadpole in that huge ocean, and with minimal competition - you can quickly grow it into a whale. And at 2B+ people, there are going to be quite a few tadpoles - and a % of them are going to go on to become Noble Prize winners. No different to looking at space, and recognizing that there MUST BE life 'out there', simply because there are so many planets. And kind of telling that the founder of SpaceX, is a man that straddles both worlds. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk SD