SharperDingaan

Just rolling in trim proceeds, and swing-trade gains from PD, where I have a long-standing position. It will be a while before drilling services return, but in the mean-time I can accumulate a meaningful quantity of shares. I'm fine with a 10x multiple, 7-years out, in a TFSA account. SD

ESI, CPG and MEG SD

The reality in a communist state, is that your lifetime collection of 'assets' can be taken away from you at any time - you enjoy the benefits because the party allows it. However, too much money concentrated in too few (& the wrong) hands - creates resistance that has to periodically be stamped out; fail to act, and you get Russia's oligarchs. Housekeeping. China/'The West' are just Yin/Yang in motion - separate cultures, that need each other, with influence waxing/waning as the wheel turns. Thing is, that whether you produce products or services - you will consume materials; IP, minerals, energy, etc. Maintaining IP is all about rate of innovation, either grow it yourself - or steal it from others. Cultures 'breathe' by temporarily exchanging people with other cultures. Students, merchants, diplomats , etc. is peaceful interchange, conquering the other guy (Genghis Khan) - not so much. But fail to 'breathe' ... your culture becomes irrelevant, and dies. China has been around for a very long time. Today's Hong Kong is a prize, very similar to the German rocket scientists at the end of WWII. Lot of very good (& mobile) brains, lot of people trying to grab them, hardly surprising that China is 'less than happy'. Best China can hope for in another Taiwan ... Bet on where those people go, the support they get when they arrive, and what they do with today's technologies. What was done with Huawei, can easily be done in 'the west' as well. People, NOT money, is the limiting factor. SD

If ‘investing’ was purely formulaic, we would all use an algorithm. The computer can do it a lot more reliably than you can, faster, and doesn’t make mistakes. We just don’t want to hear that WE'RE the liability, not the computer! Actual, and forecast, are of course - very different. You’re there because you can ‘handle’ the ambiguity better than the algorithm can - but thumb sucking is an indicator of process break-down … discomfort with the portfolio weighting, the roll in/out, consequences, etc. AND its risk management. Hard for the ‘diva’, everyday business for the ‘boiler-maker’. Ultimately, it comes down to what works best for you. Everyday, the computer gets better at handling ambiguity. You? Not so much – almost by definition, the ‘diva’ thing is a time-limited engagement. Comes the day the computer is better than you, use it – and switch to index trades. Put diva’s and boiler-maker’s together, and you get an investment firm. Put the ‘do more – whine less’ diva’s and boiler-maker’s together, and you get partnerships. Different strokes. SD

There are really only 2 cryptocurrencies of consequence, BTC and ETH. Neither of them useful as an actual currency to pay for things. BTC will get its day in the sun, because of collapsing global currencies. Gold is great, and anonymous (once everything is melted together) - but in quantity, not easy to move around. To facilitate movement, BTC is the obvious anonymous choice. ETH will shine, because of its versatile stack, and increasing business understanding as to how to use it - Covid is just accelerating the process. The biggest beneficiary is marketing - as you can't grow a business, until you can sell more product. SD

Everytime you buy/sell - 2 weeks after the transaction, you are either going to be right/wrong/no-difference. That's reality, and all the research/analysis in the world isn't going to change it. Munger just recognizes that whether 2 hours of basic analysis, or 1 day of sophisticated analysis, the outcome is the same. You just feel better about the decision. SD

Just keep in mind that you can buy that balance sheet later at a lower price, and with more historic data points. You also want SUSTAINED improvement, not just a short-term bump following border re-openings. Devaluation is just getting started - if the USD has to debase by 15%, do you really think that the Mexican Peso is going to able to debase by JUST 15% as well? (to keep the USD/Peso FX rate the same). When competing countries are also aggressively devaluing to promote both exports, and domestic production, as much as possible? SD

What's the rush ??? Mexico, LatAm, SA, etc. all have Covid-19 ... and are less able to deal with it than the US is. The US is also largely where it is, because of incompetence - which may well change from December onwards. Relative to the US - Mexico, LatAm, SA should be significantly devaluing as time goes on. Maybe 15-20% over 1 year? Airlines have to 1) get people flying again, and then 2) get people flying to Mexico, LatAm, SA, etc. How are people going to pay for those flights? US trial balloons have favoured tax credits for DOMESTIC travel/tourism, NOT international - winter sun breaks in the US, not Mexico of SA. Sure, there will be more flights - but Mexican/SA growth will depend primarily on DOMESTIC travel/tourism. Minimal growth for 1 year? 1 year out you KNOW if more people are flying again, AND where they are going. Devaluation has also very likely lowered the (USD) share price quite a bit. You will also know if airports are STILL the best infrastructure opportunity for your $. Just sit on your ass for a year, and let the thesis both evolve and de-risk. SD

Sadly there ain't many like 'smiling jack', and probably just as well - as the man was a hell of a salesman, and ahead of his time. Domes innovations contributed hugely to today's LAPES methodology - especially when the drop has to done in the dark, just above sea level, and at a tiny artificial island surrounded by flares! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low-altitude_parachute-extraction_system SD

Long time ago I had the good fortune to work in one of their companies. When they were younger they were very smart folks, but if you weren't family, or of the persuasion, your opportunities were pretty limited. Biggest takeaways were the difference between YOUR money, and other people's money - and the ability to swear competently in Yiddish! Ultimately everybody gets old, and families have to make a decision. Founders have to step away, and put down the kool aid. Sadly, for them it didn't go so well, and it was the family that paid. It would seem that THERE IS A TOXIC LIMIT as to how large a family business can become - and that the stronger the individuals are, the more toxic it becomes. When business stops being 'fun' - it's time to either walk away, or sell off parts of the business until it becomes 'fun' again (the tile store). Do something else with the proceeds. SD

Keep in mind that a crowd-funded RE platform is typically ‘last resort’ lending. The ‘opportunity’ you’re being offered is one that the banks (and their credit departments) have rejected. Many banks, not just one or two. As soon as the borrower is able, the highest cost debt is refinanced – your investment. You take a lot of risk, and if it works out – don’t get any extended benefit. Worse still is that many are NOT going to work out – and there is not going to be an exit market to sell into (ie: you ride to zero). REIT’s are professionally managed, and liquid investments. These? Not so much. Partner up to buy a place, most don’t crowdfund strangers they don’t know. What’s the real purpose? Income, gains, - or just something to do? SD

GMP vs DPM pretty much tells you everything. SD

A useful exercise is to download the Nymex WTI and Gold price history, from Mar-2020 onwards. Set the gold price at the Apr-17 close (day before the WTI price collapse), and recalculate the WTI history after PTD debasement (using gold prices as the inflation proxy). Adjusted WTI peaked at USD 39.70 on June-05, and has been in DECLINE ever since. As at close of trading yesterday (Aug-07), the adjusted WTI price since June-05 is DOWN 14% - which implies that incremental demand is drawing down inventory. The unadjusted WTI price (Aug-07) since June-05 is UP 10% - a 24% price gap! 124% of adjusted WTI, as at close of business yesterday, was USD 42.57. The closing WTI price of USD 41.22, implies that the sizeable global inventory of oil is lowering price by roughly 3.2%. Do the same thing with the leading economic commodities. Very different views ;) SD

The best, and most anti-fragile asset, is you - the IP in your head, and your remaining length of time in the workforce. If inflation comes back - simply collectively withhold your labor until you are better rewarded. If the economy craters en-mass, there is little choice for the authorities other than mass stimulus (make-work projects, benefit reliefs, skills upgrading, etc.) - free money to go back to school, and upgrade. Put bluntly - you have a long straddle on the economy, and the more volatile the economy, the more the straddle is worth to you. Fortunately, very few realize that ;) SD

I hear you, but for Canada/US border crossing purposes, TP is classified as an essential product along with food, medical, some manufacturing, minerals, and energy. Everything else is non-essential, even if it is a Canadian good (or imported into Canada) for Canadian use, just passing over US Rail as the most efficient way of getting from A to B. Try getting your hands on quantity of either cedar or pressure treated dimensional lumber, east of Manitoba - trees everywhere, yet shortages of wood! SD

Inflation is just incremental $ chasing the same TOTAL quantity of goods. $100 spent over 10 items is an average $10/item, $105 (5% inflation on $100), over the same 10 TOTAL items, and the average price/item is $10.50 (105/10). Pretty straight forward. So where's the inflation? Covid-19 and the global trade war, have reduced the TOTAL quantity of goods. Current spending (Covid-19 related) is clearly higher than it was months ago. If total spend is up 15% ($115) and total quantity is down 10% (9), the average price/item should be $12.78 (115/9) - and inflation should be 27.8%/yr (((12.78-10)/10)x100). ie: very high. There are only 3 possibilities .... 1. Current spend is not that much higher than it was under successive rounds of QE. Sure, there IS large incremental spend - but divided over the very large (QE spend inflated) base spend? % wise, it's just not that much. 2. The current total quantity of goods available is HIGHER than it was. Very unlikely, as there are shortages of goods all across the US and Canada. The US/Canada border has been closed for some time, and anything non-essential can only be met from existing inventory. 3. The inflation has been absorbed in global foreign exchange devaluations. If the US, and the Euro debase at the SAME rate, the RELATIVE US/Euro FX rate doesn't change much (what we see), if the compared country is debasing faster - we see a worsening in their FX rate (3rd world currencies) Gold is often viewed as a hedge against fiat currency debasement. Pick a date, as to when you think the adverse Covid-19 lock-down effects started. March-31-2020? The closing price of gold, 3/31/2020 was USD 1583/oz. The closing price yesterday was USD 2069/oz. If the total supply/demand of gold available for trading over the 4 months (Apr, May, June, July) did not change significantly - the price change must be due to inflation About 31% PTD ((2069/1583)-1)x100 - guess where the inflation went! If PTD debasement is this large - shouldn't you have heard about it elsewhere, as well? You have - all the discussion on US loss of reserve currency status, and any cursory scan of 3rd world FX rates over the last 6 months. The real question is why is it that 'retail' can see this - when apparently institutions cannot? SD

Comes back to ones options, and the time horizon thing: Short, Medium, Long. Short-term (0-5 yrs) the economics point to rent. Change in lifestage, commission/closing cost recovery, freedom restriction, etc. Medium-term (5-15 yrs) the economics point to RE management. Primary residence only, &/or a string of rentals. Long-term (15 yrs+) the economics point to FI investment only - REITs, bonds, prefs, div payers, etc. If you come primarily from the trades, &/or real estate - RE investment is a natural extension of what you already do (you have lower operational risk). If you come primarily from the professions, it's a different game. Trades vs Professions is not mutually exclusive -but in NA, the number of people who successfully straddle both worlds is small. North Americans have professionally managed pension plans - in many other parts of the world, your personal RE is your pension plan. RE as a vehicle to wealth and/or a risk management tool, is one thing - RE to use is quite another. It pays to be clear on your purpose. SD

I found that eating less, and a spread of different tasks, worked best for me. Calculate your BMI, then look up the BMI threshold that is considered 'healthy' - it'll shock you. Eat 500 cals/day less, and you'll both take off 1 lb (3500 cals)/week and keep it off - it's essentially the eat 80% of your plate thing, expressed in numbers. You'll also become a lot more conscious of how many calories are in some foods, and how little you should eat of them. To lose 1 lb/week via exercise alone, is a lot of work - about 55 miles/week of mountain biking @ 65 cals/mile, or 35 miles/week of hiking @ 100 cals/mile. Less weight, and you'll automatically have more energy and greater sharpness. Doing different tasks, reduces the dulling from repetition. Applying a little mental discipline will take you some way as well. SD

Hate to say it, but if you can't trust your own family - you have far bigger issues than digital nomadism! Have to assume that you can't trust your current/future spouse either? SD

You have at least 4 decisions here - all overlapping. Digital nomadism may be great, but are you required to be in the same time zone? (Seattle, PST). The US states that follow PST and PDT are California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington. Canadian provinces where PDT is used during summers and PST the rest of the time are British Columbia and Yukon. Time limited engagement? You may be OK with this, but if there are to be kids or you would like to have a significant other - you need to stay in one place. How many years can you do this, or is it just months. Minimum holding period? Commission/closing paid on entry/exit, divided by average NET annual cash flow. For most opportunities this is going to be 5-7 years, or longer if you're paying someone to manage the property & get the bookings. What is the purpose? Buying a place ties you to one location - and is anti digital nomadism (freedom). Doing it because you can? - renting is a lot more in sync with the whole concept of digital nomadism. If you just want to buy a property, invest your money with siblings &/or parents. Low risk, trusted partners, you're still on the property ladder, and still free to do the nomadism thing. When you need the money back to buy your own house - they just take out a new mortgage equal to the market value of your % ownership of the property. In the meantime, just rent wherever you happen to be, and for as long as it continues to make sense. SD

More educated? I seriously doubt that. You have to be a baby boomer to have experienced inflation and we all know that baby boomers suck. Reading a textbook doesn’t really give you the same experience, that’s for sure. My grandparents were small kids during the Weimar inflation in 1922 and told me stories about people rushing to the stores to buy what they can immediately on payday because next morning, things were way more expensive. They were playing with small money notes that were several orders or magnitude devalued (a couple of weeks old at the peak) and people were moving money in wheelbarrows. I remember the 70’s and hard assets and gold later were all the rage. There was the 1979 Hunt brothers silver boom and bust. Easy money leads to a lot of misallocation of Capital but inflation does so as well. Hagstroms book “Warren Buffet way” discusses how WEB was investing in inflationary setting (buy business with pricing power and low reinvestment needs) and may be worth a re-read. Keep in mind that for an 'experience' to remain in the public domain, it has to be traumatic, current (within a decade), and experienced simultaneously by multiple generations. As the eldest generation dies off, everyone moves up a generation, and 'experience' rapidly fades. It also warps, as you recall what inflation was like for a male/female, at an earlier life stage - NOT today's stage of life. A very large portion of the NA population has little/no inflation experience, and much of the recall is severely warped. Contrast that to SA, Africa, and parts of Eastern Europe. Grandmothers investing their life savings in canned goods, for resale on the street at the days price level, a COMMON sight. And not 'back then' - every 10-20 years or so. Want to know about inflation? Talk to immigrants from those places. It is pretty hard to get inflation in a global great recession/depression - but guaranteed if the monetary authority has no choice but to print more bills: inflation remains, and the economy switches to alternative currencies. Hence, we see everything possible being done to push monetary policy to the limits (and beyond), to minimize the use of fiscal policy. There is a reason why we tolerate the absurdity of negative interest rates. Bankers willingly paying you to borrow large amounts of money from them - is rational? Really? SD

This is really about your investment 'process’. If you learnt by making every mistake known to man, and surviving them (boiler maker) – risk management, and rapid ‘fixing’ of mistakes is as natural as breathing. You are anti-fragile, and arguably, the more organic/murkier the process the better - as the ‘shit and I’ is old mates! Investing is fun. If you learnt by very technical thesis application (diva), you had a much easier ride – but when things go wrong, you either blow up or have a breakdown. You are more-fragile than you think, prone to thesis denial/tantrum, and cannot handle failure. Investing is fun – but only if it goes your way. Process is one thing, application another. If ‘boiler maker’ is your thing, you run businesses – not invest in them. ‘Investment’ is merely good cheque-book management, your focus is profit maximization – and value is just a derivative of that. If ‘diva’ is your thing, you invest in the shares of businesses - you don’t attempt to run them. Know your place. Obviously, the approaches are not mutually exclusive, and there is a wide spectrum within each approach. As in a Venn diagram, the number of people who can successfully overlap both worlds are very small. Hence entrepreneurs selling their business - typically becoming very conservative, post sale. SD

That depends on how long you live in the vacation property right? I could spend 4 months a year there now that my company allows permanently work from home Not owning the vacation property gives you flexibility to go anywhere, anytime, for any length of time - you are not stuck with the same place. Today you rent a place in Greece for a month, been there, done that. Tomorrow you rent a place in the US desert. There will also be tax considerations. Usually favouring 'home', over 'vacation property', status. SD

Buy the home/condo to live in - and rent the vacation property as/when you need it. SD

Good catch. SD