SharperDingaan

Each burn will turnover some supporters, he needs to demonstrate that supporters can be changed, and he needs to keep the circle of supporters as small as possible; The Dictator's Handbook. One burn at a time, and another 'to follow' ... to keep everyone in line. The 2018 term limit abolishment probably had strings; performance review every X years or so. He was 65 when the limit was abolished (a young man!); but if there is a rolling 10 year review, he only has another 4+ years over which to deliver. Most would also not expect a 10 year renewal, when you are already 75! Different cultures, different strokes. SD

Keep in mind that 'economic busts' are routine events; and the subsequent 'market clearing' is both highly disruptive and messy. The consequent recessions &/or depressions suck at the time, but they reliably clear the market, and usher in the next round of growth. The less governmental interference, the more an economy resembles the natural fire cycle; more frequent, lower temperature, less intense burns, that keep down the fuel load and pests; versus the high temperature, high intensity, uncontrollable burns that take everything in their path. Economic resiliency, and anti-fragility, by burning often, and allowing it to happen. China has made enormous strides over the last 50+ years, and the nation has a great deal to be proud of, all good. However, periodic burns didn't happen as regularly as they should have, and there is now way too much fuel on the ground. A lightning strike in the wrong place, and it could go very badly. Very bad news when social order is a primary metric, there is a material in-county 'bad-debt' problem, a material 'youth employment' problem, and a significantly worsening demographic. Suffer enough lightning strikes ... at least one of them is inevitably going to strike in the wrong place. Fixable, but not without repeated doses of short-term pain, and very carefully administered! More about reliable, competent execution, versus who is in charge at the time. SD

One of the benefits of playing chess is pattern recognition; ability to rapidly see disparate linkages/development, see patterns, and use the outcome. Play against others 'like you' and you just sharpen your wits, but play against masters who are not 'like you' .... and things happen. Back in my early days; I used to play against 'escapees' from Lebanon, Iran, the old Soviet Block, and a retired Asian academic who had reverted back to the hippy life... They all had very distinctive 'styles', and much of it was a reflection of their home culture/life experience. 'Cause everyone was short a few bucks, we'd often play 'blitz chess' in local pubs, against a simultaneous 5 players at a time, in return for a couple of beers. Ability to 'carny bark', think and act on your feet, while being a little blitzed yourself! Learnt all kinds of 'under the table' skills from some of the worlds best, and thoroughly enjoyed myself. Quickly discovered that I knew nothing, compared to the gents from Lebanon and Iran; and that there weren't any shrinking violets when it came to straight-up cunning and shrewdness! It was such a bummer to have to return to the 'above the table' life, once I started university SD

Not us, but one of those in our group, and representative. https://www.smallponybarrelworks.com/pages/club Our preference is sours; Pony also benefits from a soft water source, which further enhances the taste. You might want to try the Smuv, All the Best Hats, or Thunderscaps. Pretty much hard-to-get boutique beer, at $7-11/bottle, delivered. $10-15/pour in the brewpub, and priced against high-end Belgian imports. Drink less, drink better, keep the weight off, and save money; very 'anti-Bud' SD

The great thing with running real businesses is the continuous rubbing your nose in the 'value-add'. Execute competently, and you will do very well; the market is currently throwing up some great opportunities. Our buying group ( with the help (& grant $) of an agricultural university) has been able to execute an agreement to grow our own greenhouse hops, at cents in the dollar. Long-term off-take agreement, solar panel electrics, leased greenhouse space at a ridiculous price, and no employees. Secure source of fresh hops year round (higher potency), in multiple varieties, payback period < 2 years. Greater variety of beers, and higher margins. High volume stainless steel tanks at < 35% of new, transported and installed. Payback period < 1 year, ability to extend shelf life (shared contract brews) by weeks, and/or store soft water for high-margin speciality brews. Value add. And if you want our groups brews? Either come to our breweries or brew-pubs yourself, or we can ship it you (Ontario only) - same as any other parcel. Value add! SD

Just pick a trade journal in an industry you are interested in, and the industry news aggregator. At the broader level, add a subscription to the nations business newspaper (G&M in Canada). You are looking for the blow-ups, scandals, dividend cuts, messaging, etc. - not the journalism; and ideally, waiting for a negative 'event' in your circle of competence SD

I just simplified, and compared to the typical MER on a bond ETF or mutual fund; the portfolio manager trading bonds, your return being interest + gains - MER. If you simply bought individual bonds directly, at different maturities, and held to maturity; you would get the YTM at zero risk (treasuries, etc.), clip coupons twice/year, and eliminate the MER entirely. Comes down to how active you want to be, and if you have the skill set. You will also have multiple and complex new annual tax filings, that you will need an accountant to do. Additionally, every 2-3 years you will need to re-estimate how much tax this is saving/year, and make a decision as to whether to continue or not; all very 'fuzzy'. Comes down to the cost of annual life insurance (the simple) to pay the taxes that would be saved; if it's comparable/less than the estimated ongoing maintenance/year (the complex), walk away and enjoy a simpler life. We just recognized that we were being taken, and 'took back'. The thieves were good, but we were better SD

Canadian based; but lot's of non resident dual national's, Cdn/UK/French LLP's, and direct asset co-ownerships. Familiar with the tax-adviser experience, and know a lot more of the Gibraltar and Cayman Island opportunities that we would prefer Ultimately we had to be comfortable with the proposed solution, and we just weren't. US estate planning is mechanically different, but it will very likely be a similar experience .... there are only so many ways of legally minimizing taxes. KJP is quite right; if you choose to go this route, use a attorney, and be prepared to spend. A big slug now, and a smaller slug every year in ongoing filing/accounting fees; 25K/1M AUM to set-up (2.5%), 12.5K/1M AUM (1.25% MER) per year in maintenance. Our view was that per 1M in investable assets, a 6% return/year is largely inevitable (long term bond bought at 6% YTM, and held to maturity). Deduct 1.25% MER (bond fund), 1.25% filing/accounting, 2.5% inflation (on a good day); and your real return is down to 1% - before taxes, and reputation risk. 3.25% if you just bought the bond directly, and clipped coupons. Is that 1% real return for all this sh1te, on a good day, really worth it? Different strokes. SD

Every jurisdiction is different, and has legal/accounting/advisement costs to set it up; expect to pay 2-3% of gross assets, similar to the commission on buying/selling a house. There's a lot of ego stroking, 'showing off', and the 'tax tail' trying to wag the dog; so know your priorities, and know your requirements. Any kind of resistance to a 3rd party review, or insistence upon a NDA before discussion, and instantly walk away. Also keep in mind that were the advisors as good as claimed, the conversation would not be taking place, as they should already be rich; so why aren't they? Simplest is best, and its often cheaper (after jumping the hoops & paying the fees) to just buy life insurance to pay the taxes. There are also many better solutions to creation of living trusts via the premature transfer of assets; LLC's offer a lot of freedom, with 100% of the shares gifted upon death as part of the inheritance. Good luck! SD

We were referring to the well-known phenomenon that it is hard to see your own mistakes, you really need an independent set of eyes to see them; and independence doesn't get much better, when you're also looking at it from a strong and independent culture (USA). However, it is not a guarantee that you will be right!; you just have a better set of glasses!! SD

+1. With foreign stocks, your biggest asset is that you don't live there; hence, you can temporarily see what locals cannot. We have always found fertile ground amongst the German/Swiss/UK banks; betting on European culture, and bail-out . Your 'edge' will improve, if you also have family/relatives/contacts in the foreign location. Very different when you look at the Nano-caps and small/private companies in the broader 'green' space; as there are incredible things going on, with integration years ahead of the US. Were this the 1950's again many of those involved, would have been the Staten Island immigrants that went on to build their own factories in the US. SD

One of the advantages to sitting in a UBS, BTC, etc. as cash equivalents; is that it removes the cash. As the brokerage statement does not show a high cash balance, you don't feel you have to re-invest, now! ; no blue pill. It also allows you to be comfortable with trading around your cash equivalent, and only entering the new position on a predatory basis (bidding in scale only when liquidity is thin). Same as 'beaters' herding game through a trap, institutions 'herd' retail as well; maturity gives you the ability to see it, and change the game. Red pill. SD

Lot of tankers sitting in places where they shouldn't be. Have to think the Chinese were pissed, OPEC has agreed to made them whole in some fashion; and that a whole lot of adulterated Russian and Iranian crude is about to be dumped on the market. Russia's recent 500K bbl/day cut back is roughly 15M bbl/month ... not far off the current floating capacity anchored off Egypt. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Mysterious-Cluster-Of-Saudi-Oil-Tankers-Off-Egypt-Raises-Storage-Concerns.html https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-To-Release-Millions-Of-Barrels-Of-Imported-Oil-Stuck-At-Ports.html SD

We spat out the industry blue pill a long time ago, and recognize that when you have the risk tolerance; there are alternatives to the typical T-Bill/Canada cash equivalents. We are also still in the get rich phase, NOT the stay rich phase, so ...... different strokes. UBS is a GSIB, and so was CS. The combined two GSIBs are guaranteed directly by the Swiss National Bank, and indirectly via every other central bank in the world that is part of the Basel agreement; including the US Fed It isn't going to go under, it pays a dividend, and share appreciation is as near to guaranteed as you can possibly get. A cash equivalent. BTC is a direct cash alternative, the next halving is sometime in 2014, following which history suggests a double within 6-12 months. Should a Blackrock, etc. get an BTC-ETF approval, a double might occur a lot sooner. Should there subsequently be a e-USD, a e-Euro, or e-BRICK 'soft launch', a double might occur sooner still. Maintaining a significant exposure, is just prudence. GXE trades for < CAD 1.00, pays a 12% monthly dividend, with a double dependent upon future oil prices. Cheap way of obtaining an average cash yield on the 3-stock combination, comparable to a 1-year Canada. Obviously, not for everyone However if we can tolerate the volatility, and it works as hoped; our annual cash return is > 100%, for little additional risk. SD

We hold a mid 30's weighting in equity cash equivalents; ubs btc, gxe. If we did nothing, we would very likely have doubles a year out, and in the interim take home a monthly 5%+ cash yield. SD

You might want to consider the USD losing its current status as the worlds reserve currency. Lot of work going on that will replace the USD with a supra-national CBDC for use in nation-to-nation trade settlements. US/China/BRICS as roughly equals. The reality is that both the Chinese and US economies are economically about the same size. Settle the bulk of global payments independently from tourist/remittance flows, the gorillas get smaller/more manageable, and the focus shifts to global people flow. Not going to happen soon, but it will happen, and probably within the next decade. Not a bad thing. SD

Keep in mind that Alberta is also a boom & bust province, and it's young people and young migrants/immigrants who travel for work. Red Deer is only 140km up the road from Calgary, and is currently the 10th most affordable city in Canada... Red Deer: https://www.nesto.ca/real-estate/20-cheapest-cities-to-live-in-canada/ Average Monthly Expenses for a Single Person (excluding rent): $861 Average Monthly Cost of 1-Bedroom in the City: $948 Calgary is also somewhat unique; oil/gas head-office hub, university town, tourist route to/from the Rockies. A 20-30 something has a lot of incentive to make it home for a while, get an education, work the mostly local tourist jobs, meet all the traveling Australian/Nordic ski-bums on walkabout, and use the opportunity to find a significant other. Forces down the city demographics. Great place to get the family started, but once the eldest gets to kindergarten ... decisions need to be made. To escape the oil/gas 'trap', you really need to move to either Toronto or Vancouver; all good SD

Buy a place in Calgary and rent it out. First-time buyers are struggling to come up with the DP, and monthly rent costs are roughly $300 > than 30% of the average paycheck after statutory deductions. Between rising interest rates, drought, wildfires, local politics, and lower energy prices; the provincial economy is in the sh1tter. Lot of folks are hurting, lot more/better inventory available (relative to Toronto/Vancouver), and prices are lower. Energy prices will not stay at US70 forever, pipeline egress will largely be settled come Xmas, and population in-migration is likely to continue &/or accelerate as folks move for work. https://wowa.ca/calgary-housing-market https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/calgary-first-time-homebuyers-struggle-with-down-payments Good luck! SD

Those in their fertile years are too exhausted after their regular day, and the families cannot afford to not have both of them working at the same time. Ain't going to be no babies amongst the most educated without some kind of a major structural change; and without change, the future and smaller population rapidly gets progressively 'dumber'. The obvious solution is to pay for babies; via mortgage payment forgiveness, and a monthly stipend for the first X years of a kids life; have 3 kids with 3 year spacing, and this could go on for X+6 years; not practical in the western world, but well within the capabilities of the current China 'state'. Japan also burned its population pyramid to achieve its miracle, and like China; there were no babies 'cause everyone was both exhausted and expenses were extreme. Today, robots take care of the aged as the young have moved elsewhere, and arguably the culture itself is in danger of extinction. Lesson for China. SD

We have also put on a roll or two over the last little while Simply because a great many very good o/g companies in the WCSB have been severely sold down to ridiculous levels, and Alberta's recent election has added to the round-trip opportunities. Renting vs owning is about controlling risk; the expectation is that the underlying is rising long-term, and you are trading the price volatility of the underlying price rise not being linear. The share count is kept the same, and the gains pushed into treasuries. Done well; there is a new cash inflow, and the unrealized loss becomes less volatile. End of the day you're still long the thesis, but at time-to-time are neutral (50% long, 50% round-trip); keep tabs on the macro for your local sector, and rebalance seasonally. SD

The pro-active stance also indicates (1) modernization is high on the list, and (2) crypto segregated into two markets. Mainstream (Nasdaq, NYSE, etc.) access via segregated custodianship/pricing references (modern version of the London gold fix), experienced/knowledgeable on-ramps (Blackrock, Fidelity, etc.), KYC control, etc. - give up some privacy for the greater efficiency/effectiveness. Offshore markets (Binance) for the Alt-Coin, NFT's, innovation, low quality crypto; little different to the deliberate segregation between junior/senior exchanges, that already exists in most public markets. Market solution to a market problem. Big question is whether the existing crowdfunding market (GoDaddy, etc.), falls into the same regulatory bucket as the offshore market. Domestic crowdfund > mainstream offshore crypto innovation > mainstream Nasdaq/NYSE; or domestic crowdfund > domestic junior exchange > mainstream offshore crypto innovation > mainstream Nasdaq/NYSE. Most would argue that domestic crowdfunding and VC financing are quite different, and should be treated differently. We live in interesting times. SD

Additional news ... "The original crypto coin has leapt 20% to two-month highs at $30,182 over the past 11 days after BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, revealed hopes for a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States. Fueling optimism among some crypto advocates is BlackRock’s strong track record of getting the SEC’s green light for ETFs more generally, although it hasn’t filed for a crypto one before. It boasts a 575-1 approval rate, according to Rosenblatt Securities analyst Andrew Bond. Since the BlackRock filing, Invesco and WisdomTree have also reapplied for spot bitcoin ETFs after they had previous applications rejected by the regulator. The mini-rush of pitches to the U.S. watchdog comes days after the SEC sued major crypto exchanges Coinbase and Binance for allegedly breaking securities laws, casting a chill over the cryptocurrency market. At present, American investors currently looking to gain exposure to crypto on stock exchanges are limited to futures-based ETFs. These funds track bitcoin futures contracts, which come with the additional costs of rolling over contracts on settlement days." https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/investment-ideas/article-bitcoin-bounces-on-blackrock-buzz/ It would appear that a new regime is quietly being proposed/implemented. It is going to start with a 'bang', and it is not going to a big leap from what is already in place. May we all do well! SD

Quick search for US BTC-ETF's this morning ..... It would seem that the only things new here are (1) a spot BTC-ETF, and (2) mainstream 'legitimacy' of a Blackrock & Fidelity. The SEC pushed past the 'idea' of a BTC-ETF trading on the US markets, some time ago. While the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved multiple bitcoin futures ETFs, it has yet to approve a spot bitcoin ETF despite receiving numerous applications. https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/06/26/us-has-room-for-a-compliant-crypto-etf-to-grow-market-share-as-a-bitcoin-on-ramp-bernstein/ This is a list of all Bitcoin ETFs traded in the USA which are currently tagged by ETF Database. Please note that the list may not contain newly issued ETFs. If you’re looking for a more simplified way to browse and compare ETFs, you may want to visit our ETF Database Categories, which categorize every ETF in a single “best fit” category. ttps://etfdb.com/themes/bitcoin-etfs/ SD

Keep in mind .... SEC approval of a US BTC-ETF is a time-horizon thing. Some folks are 'sure' than over the 'short-term', the SEC is going to reject this sucker. Others are 'sure' that over the 'long-term', SEC approval is inevitable. Purely difference of opinion, and both might be right; nothing wrong in that Canada already has a BTC-ETF trading on the TSX, and it also has an active option market on the MSX. To date the implementation concerns have not been a concern/issue, and there is no reason to expect any change over the next year or so. Sure - but this is in Canada, not the US; and not the same thing. Regulators test Innovation in small markets first - 'cause if it blows up, the sh1te is easily containable; e-Krone in Sweden to test out CBDC, BTC-ETF in Canada to test out implementation. Canadian financial regulation is amongst the most resilient in the world, and Canada has long been a champion of todays technology since day-1. Everyone who already owns BTC, or the BTC-ETF plus its option market, already has this bet. If the SEC approves BlackRock, the BTC-ETF very likely trades higher; if the SEC rejects - the puts very likely go in the money. OK, it's Canadian Peso's ... but one can only do so much! The SEC may well just punt the decision for a few months (for research/training purposes), then come back to it as the climate/inflation/economy allows. In the meantime there are lots of better venues by which to place your bets, and across multiple time horizons as well. We're in the camp that no-matter-what we win; we just need a large enough disruption. But looking out over the remaining time to the 100th anniversary of The Securities Act (2033), an approval at some point seems pretty inevitable; as long as there are no major blowups - it's really more a matter of when, not if. Hence, we live in interesting times; and it's a great time in finance to be a young person. SD

All markets are inherently risky, it is part of the cost of participation; you hope the goods/services are as they appear (or advertised), and that the price is ‘real’ (not fixed, or ‘pumped’). You use the market because you need the goods/services &/or the liquidity, it is more effective/efficient than alternatives; and it is your choice, at all times, to walk away (i.e.: you are responsible for your actions). BTC is just another such market. If you don’t know the market, you assign a market expert to do the buying/selling for you; a trusted mechanic if buying a used car, a jeweler if buying precious metals, accredited investment professionals if buying BTC. The price paid (ETF management expense ratio) for their agency is insurance, against getting taken; not infallible, but practical. Markets contribute wealth; very big markets get state protection, for a cut of the prize. Piracy/bad actors have always existed, and navy’s/state apparatus have always been used to suppress/eliminate; the benefit from greater trust/confidence in the market exceeding the cost of the security ‘cut’. BTC also benefits the ‘wrong kind of people’, with different tools; it is to everyone’s interest to play nice, and play the long-term game. It is not hard to eliminate sources from the reference rate, mandate a ‘haircut’ to the reference price, &/or require purchase of a minimum daily state offered put on the reference price. As with any other insurance, the insurer (state) collects the losses … then uses its full power to collect from the perpetrator. Net of mitigation, grandma gets to buy her BTC-ETF with about the same risk as any other higher risk company (where pump and dump is also routine) trading on the Nasdaq/NYSE. A BTC-ETF is just one more choice amongst many with similar market risk. A BTC-ETF is not going to have the same risk as an Exxon, or a Chase Manhattan; but if it has a comparable risk to a Goldman Sachs, and cannot be bought without passing a KYC screen, it becomes an entirely different thing. Hard to see how it doesn’t happen. Of course, if you insist upon looking like, or acting like a pirate/bad actor, life might be different for you. We live in interesting times. SD