SharperDingaan

I share this same view with you - at 38 , I am at where I thought where I would need to be at 50 and so this has changed my view about what to do next - keep working or buy a nice big house so as to keep me motivated to keep working (i.e., pay off a new big mortgage). I know this is like a real first world problem in a COVID year, so I am just thankful to have this problem instead of other kinds... Gary Long time ago I lived in Calgary - and saw the impact of the first oil bust on the city and the surrounding community. Countless people, very good at what they do, losing everything, and quite a few suicides. Since then the same thing has largely repeated every downturn, but the message has remained very clear. Even in a civilized country you can lose everything tomorrow, and a great many people still do. There are NO old, bold, bush-pilots. However, there ARE old bush-pilots - but they are ALL very good risk managers, both tactical and strategic. Most of them got to be old by executing on plans today, that made them less at risk tomorrow. During WWII Munger routinely did exactly this, day after day: never sending pilots through weather systems that would ice wings, and destabilize flight. SD

It would be a very wise move to have exited entirely by the end of this week. Help yourself to one or two options as well ;) In Canada, RRSP season typically drives new retail investment into the market, much of which this time around will probably feature crypto as a new asset class. Then most will discover that this class suddenly has TWO investable assets in it, and that one of them has many different types. SD

To us capital is just capital. We are repatriating capital because we either take the $ off the table, or lose it (and more), by doing something stupid in the market. Sure, we could still do something stupid, but paying off mortgages reduces the possibilities, and ensures that we get the benefit of higher discretionary cashflow - and hopefully, more out of life. Defeasement, is a simple technique by which to avoid early repayment penalties. We are fortunate that with two nephews just starting out, we can repatriate material capital for quite some time. The downside is that finance/accounting isn't really their interest, so this is a limited term process. Sadly, there's never a smuggler when you want one! SD

To deal with exactly this issue - we have an adjustable target total equity cost (adjusted for dividends since day-1), and a maximum market value forcing a capital repatriation. Within limits, as our MV rises, so does our target equity cost. Proceeds typically not repatriated until 3-6 months after they were raised. As we prefer concentrated positions, our downside is exposure to multi-year STRINGS of losses of 25-50%+/yr; hence, you aren't selling this to OPM. Our upside is that repatriated capital (as and when it occurs) pays off mortgages, funds education, capitalizes new opportunities, etc. Immediate benefits, that show up as incremental discretionary cash flow every month. Works for us, but everyone needs to evolve their own process. Good luck. SD

Just an FYI to advise that as at 11:09 EST, Jan 02, 2021 - BTC passed USD 32,000, and on its way higher :D https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd SD

Far too early for this, but > 100% TWR in the equity portfolios, net of a return of capital. We weren't 'investing' as in 'buy and hold'. We were primarily swing trading to lower cost bases and build share count. 'Donny' was very good to us with his 1700-2000 point daily swings, as was Bitcoin, WCP, CPG, and most other oil/gas. Even PD and OBE net of consolidations, and recent run-ups!. Today we have large share counts (for retail) in very good companies, record cash sitting in FFH stock, and a healthy CAD/Pound FX hedge going the right way. Over the next 12 months, most of it will be partially reinstating dividends as well. We will be eating well for a very long time! The big take-away this year, was the value of returning capital right after a run of obscene trades. Short-circuiting the corruption of fast money worked very well for us, and it benefited a lot of people. It will benefit us again this tax season. Every day, something new. SD

Too bad they forgot to mention the capitalization rate, the custodian, and that it only really works with sh1tcoin. In you have BTC or ETH and want to margin, you're using options/futures - not blockfi. If you don't want the derivative, you're using a marginable, enhanced KYC account at one of the major FI's. Different POV. SD

The nice thing with principles is that there is flexibility at the margin. Agreed, evaluate each place on its relative risk, and let the pieces fall as they may. However, the principle of a helping hand to get on the list - is not a bad thing. We have a charter of rights and freedoms for a reason; but until discrimination becomes a relic of the past, it's hard to argue against a compensating thumb pushing down on the scale. Different strokes. SD

BTC/related derivatives - whether directly, or via an ETF. Heresy to many! but if you willing to be flexible between token/derivative, have worked in the investment industry, can do basic research, and can APPLY what you learn/know - versus just follow others? you should do very well. This ain't buy and hold, and it ain't going to play on the cocktail circuit - so if you're looking for glory? this ain't it! But if you want to see/hear the real world, smell the fear/greed, learn risk management/emotional control, and play against the very good? you'll learn more in 6 months than many would otherwise learn in a lifetime. Rough hockey can be great fun, but you have to know how to skate, give as good as you get, and realize that it's a limited term engagement. Good luck! SD

Happy New Year ..... and fortune and glory to all! And the end to a rubbish 2020!! SD

A fishing lodge on a far-away lake somewhere is 'remote' - but not quite the same thing as a Rankin Inlet. https://rankininlet.ca/ Inuit, or Indian is no different to English, French, or Newfoundlander. They are just different people, not different races … ‘though sometimes you have to wonder! A great many women also claim that men are from Mars, and women from Venus. Names matter of course, but to most; ‘indigenous’ is relatively neutral. In times past, we called these people ‘wards of the state’ – incredibly insulting by 2020 standards. SD

Indigenous communities primarily means those North of 60 where it is all dense community living, isolation isn't really practical, and everything is either 'fly-in' or a once/yr 'sea-lift'. An infection in one of these, would spread even faster than in a Mennonite community (Manitoba). Sure, not all indigenous communities/reserves are the same, but a great many communities are not in great shape. Similar to a northern community, Covid gets into one of these, and a lot of folks are going to die. There is a reason why many of the remoter communities have closed off road access. Hard to argue against. SD

Most places will be rolling out their vaccines in a similar fashion to the below. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/canadians-vaccinated-covid-19-1.5854325 For the first phase of the vaccine rollout plan, NACI advised that initial doses should go to these four groups: (1) Residents and staff of long-term care homes. (2) Adults 70 and older, beginning with people 80 and older, then decreasing by five-year increments to 70 as supply becomes available. (3) Health-care workers, including all those who work in clinical settings, and personal support workers who come in direct contact with patients. (4) Adults in Indigenous communities, where infection can have disproportionate consequences. For Phase 2 of the vaccination rollout, NACI recommended that recipients include: (1) Health-care workers who are not part of the initial rollout. (2) Residents and staff of all other congregate settings (e.g., living quarters for migrant workers, correctional facilities, homeless shelters). (3) Essential workers, including police, firefighters and those in food production. So the choice as to WHEN you get vaccinated is entirely up to you. If you are < 70 and this is important to you, do something useful in either healthcare, a congregate setting, or essential services. Of course, you just have to get past your sh1tty 'ranking' in society first ;D SD

Agreed! SD

90% (guess) of the time, the various mechanics described work fine. Then there is the 10% (last 5-10 YEARS) when the tool-box just has nothing up to the task. The fact is that when you (all central banks combined) are the only liquidity provider(s) across the time-horizons, you control both THE LEVEL and shape of THE ENTIRE YIELD CURVE. The only real variable is degree of control - more in the short-end, tenuous in the long-end. At 20 yr, 2% money, new money can only be made by match-funding to build new long-term assets. The issue is that with todays rapid change in technology, the long-term asset has a much higher-than-normal possibility of ending up stranded. But less of a chance if one swings at the fences (SpaceX, Tesla, Starlink, 'green tech', etc), vs just building a bigger/better factory somewhere. Old money has to be made by terming out debt as it matures. Buy XYZ cheap when they can't roll their ST paper (I-banks in a market seize-up), roll into MTN, roll again into LT debt - and just let the equity appreciate as XYZ stabilizes. Asset write-downs and MTM accounting helping to reduce price, and reversed as/when recovery slowly happens. As long as XYZ does not bankrupt, there are lots of ways to play - with the better opportunities in commodities, pharma, and CPG. The underlying issue is employment. New tech doesn't require as many workers, and shifting demand favors the migrant unskilled (doing what machines either cannot, or are not cost effective at). Real problem for an India, or a China with their current large and aspiring younger workforces. But great if you are third world - exporting labor for remittance payments. Point? You are not going to be able to live by simply coupon clipping - you are going to have to take on risk. Recognize that, position accordingly - and there is a very real possibility of ending up stupid rich a decade from now. Good luck! SD

I'm all for enforcing discipline, but this might be a time to borrow from the ice hockey and soccer worlds. Maybe a 3-month ban, as the equivalent of a 5-minute major penalty? and a red card. Three red cards over a season (pick a time), and you are out? Lot of Type-A's in both the investment and sports worlds, and similar underlying issues. Don't always play well together. Much easier for the stretcher-bearers, and clean-up crews - if they all just lose teeth, break bones, and bleed all over the same area of the carpet! SD

Just to throw some numbers out. Close at 427.75, USD 10 div, 0.78 FX Rate. As the CAD equivalent div is CAD 12.82, a 10% return only requires a gain of CAD 29.88 (6.4%). Sell on Q4 2020 mystery - and 6.4% really shouldn't be a problem. SD

We have parked the bulk of our cash in FFH for the New Year/Jan 2021. Simply because over the next 4-5 weeks both the annual dividend pays out, and Q4 2020 reports. At current pricing, it is pretty hard to see how one does NOT walk away with less than a 7-10% gain on the round trip ;) The bitcoin quip is actually a very smart thing to do. Currently crypto is an investable (CME options and futures) asset class of just BTC, but per recent CME announcements, comes Feb-2021 Ethereum (smart contract token) derivatives will be traded on the CME as well. An enterprising lad, anticipating asset class rebalancing, could BOTH diversify their firm AND make a great deal of money for it. ..... now if they could do this by the end of January, that would be very useful! SD

Open a joint account with the minor (subject to higher ongoing KYC oversight). When the minor matures, stop trading and let him/her take over. In the interim, split the tax bill with the minor, and annually gift them the cash to pay their portion of the (lower total) tax bill. Tax savings annually added to the joint account. SD

Some days Christmas does indeed come early! There is a lot of institutional interest in pushing the token to a record year-end close. While ALSO buying a few puts on the CME! This is all about demonstrating creds, a changing of the guard, and establishing pecking order - BTC closing out the year at a market cap at least on par with, or greater than Tesla/Facebook. What goes up, also goes down - and it's a terrible thing to waste ;D https://businessnewsideas.com/2020/12/27/bitcoin-price-blasts-past-27k-btc-market-cap-now-over-half-a-trillion-dollars/ Bitcoins market capitalization is likewise now over $510 billion, which puts it just under Warren Buffetts Berkshire Hathaway, the tenth-largest business in the world. This comes less than a day after surpassing Visas market cap SD

Brexit officially begins Jan 01, 2021 following the historic Christmas Eve agreement. For those based in the UK/Europe, what are your thoughts re the next year, and the next 2-3 years? The deal is provisional, subject to ratification in early 2021. Zero rated tariffs and duties, new immigration policy, and many similarities to the Canada/EU September 2017 CETA agreement. https://www.tradecommissioner.gc.ca/united-kingdom-royaume-uni/information-brexit-renseignements.aspx?lang=eng&_ga=2.131453455.1418643617.1608993275-1952141802.1608993275 Our specific interest is the provisional impact on pound sterling. Jan 01 2016 (Brexit rejection anticipated), the Pound traded at 1.36 Euro. The Pound is currently trading at 1.11 Euro, or 18% less. Do most think that’s about it for devaluation, or is more expected? https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/money/brexit-deal-clouds-british-pound-outlook-in-2021-1.1132452 We find it highly likely that over the next year, the Pound devalues further to at least parity (10% devaluation), with an additional 10-15% devaluation over years 2-3. Simply because we see the UK/EU trade relationship as broadly similar to the Canada/US trade relationship, and note that CAD traditionally trades at a +/- 30% discount to the USD. Over the next 12 months we expect both a strengthening CAD as oil prices rise, and a weakening Pound as UK/EU trade logistics adjust to the new reality. We also hope to repatriate the CAD proceeds of a CAD/Pound F/X hedge ;) and have recently graduated UK based nephews - just a begging to exploit their new opportunities! What are the boards thoughts? SD

Merry Christmas, keep safe, and a quick end to a rubbish 2020! SD

The only way out is to prove that Ripple is either a Utility Token, on a Non-Fungible Token - and it is clearly neither. Sadly it's not really practical to short it unless you already have it, and intend to swing trade. Now a swift lad, with a pretty good idea as to when the rabbit was coming out .... :) Sometimes it's just better to walk away! SD

Finally! Post 2015 second hand VW campers, with room on the top for bikes and/or kayaks - going cheap!! Canadian thing :) SD

As soon as it becomes available. I've seen what Polio can do, and how easy it is to prevent it! SD