SharperDingaan

Very smart advice .. and just to build on it ... For the 1st year, rent vs buy, and rent in the bedroom communities around Toronto. Right now, you know squat: no idea how long this will be for, the better vs poorer communities/neighborhoods, costs, trains/traffic, internet connectivity, schools, etc. All you can hear is drumbeat - I have to get on the property ladder now, or I'll never get on! No different to a neophyte trying to buy units in a Bitcoin ETF. You get a lot more house for the money in a bedroom community. In 'normal' times, price for the same kind of house goes down roughly 100K+ for every community AWAY from Toronto. Live in a Bronte Creek, or a Milton - and the price will be at least 300K+ cheaper in return for the DT commute. If you don't work DT, or only have to go in 2-3 times/week - keep the discount. Sure there's a cost, but there's also a cost to screwing up. Most would expect that by 2 years+ out, the current price distortions will have worked themselves out, and new builds will be back in the market. Can't take advantage of that if you don't know where you would like to live, and don't have the means to pay for upgrades to your future abode (lofts, finishes, combining units, etc.) at the time it is being built. SD

Welcome to the board! Culture matters, but in a publicly listed company - it only lasts as long as the latest strategic plan. If the executive is long standing (ie: betting on the jockey), it will last for longer - but otherwise it is < 4 years; at best. The strategic plan is all about doing things today to position yourself for where you want to be tomorrow. Implementing change. Private companies are very different, and what you describe is commonplace. When the owner jockeys are typically both present and hands-on, the company is an extension of themselves, and the long-term view typically prevails. The better companies often have very good/experienced jockeys with long tenures, they are free of whining shareholders, ownership is by invitation only, and their reputation matters. SD

Couple of thoughts - particularly around the US. The 'recovery' to date has been K shaped. Not really happening for a great many (minimum wage), for a great many 'middle income' it just isn't worth mom working anymore ('she' cession, less work/pay, lower family income), and some who are doing as well/better than before. Poor people spend, rich ones do not - seems pretty clear that if pre Covid levels of economic activity are the objective, there is going to have be a national guaranteed minimum income (ie: permanent helicopter money). Per current legislation, municipalities have to balance their books every year; raise tax or cut services. Most would expect a 'temporary' change in the legislation. same as annual income tax is 'temporary'. Spend more than you take in and you have to borrow - assuming you can, and at a reasonable cost. If you think the market puts up the money - interest rates must rise (crowding out). If you think the fed prints the money - the USD must devalue, ahead of anticipated inflation. The US is not unique, many others are in a similar/worse position. If EVERYONE devalues at the same rate there is no difference in relative FX rates & international competitiveness (carousel effect). Commodities just cost more, most stores of value 'rise' in nominal value terms, but there's GLOBAL inflation. Same quantity of goods consumed, just more nominal fiat chasing it. Obviously, good for hard assets, hard goods, and critical commodities - as Dalio recognizes. The mystery is what happens when stranded assets write-down; obviously not good for the stocks in question, but are accounting rules 'temporarily' changed as well? We live in interesting times. SD

Define carry cost. In the 1980's, across Canada, mortgage rates of 5-8% were considered cheap. Rates subsequently spiked to 17%+ (Canada's debt wall) and have progressively come down ever since. The lower the rate, the more mortgage a buyer can afford; but if the supply of desired housing is lagging - it's higher prices for housing. Supply is inventory turnover + new build. Keep favoring some market segments over others (Condo vs SFH), and distortions magnify. SFH in the 'burbs are currently selling well, downtown condo's .... not so much. But in many major urban downtowns - carry cost + condo fee + ppty tax is still LESS than rent. SD

Amusing thread. Throughout history EVERY fiat currency issuer has debased their currency, most often via inflation. When everybody has been doing it, and for a very long time - historic fact it clearly screaming that it must be an advantageous thing to do so. Buy a house for 1M, mortgage it for 1M with a floating rate HELOC; assume inflation is 5% this year, the interest rate on your HELOC rises by 500bp to compensate, and you are ONLY paying interest (tax deductible in the US). All else equal the value of your house rose 5% to 1,050,000, the mortgage remained at 1,000,000. You are UP 50,000 in equity, but paying an additional 5% (50,000)/yr in interest. You cant afford the interest, sell this house, and buy a cheaper house someplace else. Either buying a cheaper house in a poorer neighborhood, again with 100% debt; or a better house in a better neighborhood with debt + equity (from the house exchange). The buyer of your house makes improvements, further raising its value. Everybody along the value chain benefits But apparently ... this a terrible thing? It's only terrible if you're that person who had to downsize. SD

Number of annual active consumers across Alibaba's online shopping properties from 4th quarter 2015 to 4th quarter 2020 https://www.statista.com/statistics/226927/alibaba-cumulative-active-online-buyers-taobao-tmall/ As at Q2 2017 it was 454M - as at Q4 2020? 779M. Then look at what Chinese Consumers consume, and compare it to the US. www.credit-suisse.com › media › assets CSRI Special Report: The Chinese Consumer in 2017. Hardly surprising the world order is in flux. SD

It's more about the size of the consumer market, and it's ability to consume. China has the most people at 454M (2017), followed by Brazil, India, and the US (325M). However, the US dominated forever because it had a big market, that ALSO had the discretionary income to spend - and multiples of times more people than the next nearest rivals with similar ability. Globalization made poorer countries richer - wealth & industriousness have given China's consumers discretionary income; at 1.4x the number of people, with rising vs falling (US) discretionary income, they are knocking the US off the roost. Particularly aggravating as until recently, the bulk of goods have been built to American consumer tastes. You can't just build more to flood the China market - 'cause you're building the WRONG goods. Good thing overall, as the vigorous competition forces both cultures to continually adapt and 'breathe'. Time continually moves on, if your solution is to simply put your culture in a bottle - you end up similar to the Amish/Mennonites. Conflicts resulted because ambitious men (usually) at 'the top', saw an opportunity to exploit it. Today, we have much less damaging solutions to that. SD

Mechanically, most applications don't need a blockchain. The Wust/Gervais paper is a good reference for determining when it is required. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/328820555_Do_you_Need_a_Blockchain Thing is - mechanical efficiency is NOT the key metric, public acceptance is. The blockchain is trusted because the data is immutable ... whereas in a DB, not so much. Hence a strong preference for critical, and source information, on a blockchain. Often the best application is a PRIVATE blockchain (only some can chain to it), allowing public access. Best example is your medical record - from birth through to death. Only the hospitals, etc., can chain to it, but you the owner/patient control who can see it. Every time you go to a clinic/pharmacist they can see your entire record, be confident that it was entered by a reliable source, and that nothing has been altered. Sure, it could be done with a DB as well .... but there's little/no user confidence in the data itself, unless the source is reputable. Public acceptance trumps efficiency. SD

I see what you are saying, being able to know that a set of specific data for a problem is unchanged can be a very useful thing. I'm not saying it doesn't have uses outside of CryptoCurrencies, but I'm still struggling to see a wide or valuable set of use cases. And I'd really like to. Because then I'd build one. There are a lot of them, but I can't disclose. However, think along the lines of global fish stocks, agriculture, pollution, etc. ... to whom that data might be useful, and how it might be applied? Weather feeds into thousands of daily local forecasts (worldwide) each paying an access fee, farm policy, insurance, and all more productive at a lower cost than today ...... ;) Put up satellites for weather observation ... when they aren't observing weather, they are beaming internet (or both)? More satellites, the lower the unit cost. Ability to read blockchain records via a DB? a multiplier. SD

So it's a trustworthy blockchain full of data you can't trust? It's full of data verified by a second source, that cannot be changed - a lot better than data coming from a DB in a corrupt country. Doesn't mean that the data is right, anymore than the data in a DB is right. We just don't want to hear it. SD

Nothing prevents the 2nd verifier from being a 'bot', which it will be. If the reported data is the same as it was over the last two recordings, it doesn't verify the block, and it doesn't chain. Could be the sensor is buried in snow/ice - don't care, it's sending bad data, and it doesn't chain. No humans involved, no manipulation of data (scrubbing), therefore trusted. Practically, the globes sensors would be queried once/twice a day at most. The read just capturing new records since the last read, and as at a set time (GMT) - there is no waiting for a new block to chain - it either has or it hasn't. The sensor itself could be in space, sea, or land, and just pinging once/twice a day. And only periodically, depending on the local condition. It's just a different approach, 'not invented here'. Preferred for a great many global applications, not so much for others. SD

Keep in mind that temporary across-the-board supply chain price spikes, will show up in the CPI, and report as 'inflation'. If the inflation is deemed too high, CB's will intervene. A bullwhip action begetting more bullwhip action .. and each iteration more powerful. SD

Interesting, and very relevant, article in the Globe and Mail. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-beware-the-bullwhip-effect-as-the-economy-springs-back-to-life/ Most would expect that coming out of Covid, we are going to see very high prices for some things ... as we see today for dimensional lumber, patio/driveway stone, and bicycles. Proof that inflation is here ,,, and in a big way! When it is really just evidence that supply chains are bullwhipping. Correctly anticipate the direction, and you could do very well! SD

The intent is NOT to write, it's READ only, and ONLY of existing blocks. Zero involvement with the process of adding blocks, therefore relatively fast. but unlikely to ever be as fast as a private DB. Data doesn't get into a block unless it is agreed by a 2nd party using their private key. In a DB, the weather station sensor would write to the DB directly, without any independent verification; it could be utter sh1te (broken sensor). With a blockchain, someone else has to use their private key (verify) or the block doesn't chain. On balance, data is SLOWER to chain onto the block, but MORE reliance can be placed upon it. Of course, a sh1te verifier, and you have sh1te data; same as a sh1te sensor writing to the DB. Ultimately to use a DB; you have to trust its data, in return for speed and capacity. Whereas a PUBLIC blockchain, assumes everyone is corrupt, hence the protocols. Where corruption is a possibility, blockchain is preferable over processing speed. A weather forecaster would simply read blockchain data into a standard DB, read/write to that database, and archive the periods records. Repeat daily, and use the archive for predictive purposes. Just a different approach. Ultimately it's about the data quality, and how much you trust it. DB 'evolution' around its biggest weakness, bad data. SD

Re: Fast Processing time. It is only reading existing blocks that are already on the chain, typically not everything, and Merkle Tree's speed up the process somewhat. Most would expect early versions to be slower than a private DB, simply because its new; the main issue being that it is reading ALL blockchains in a very big universe, whereas the DB is reading from a much smaller (and contained) universe. Obviously, if you query the whole world - it is going to take your query longer to run. Point here is that blockchain is being incorporated into the DB as just another special case of object PODS. Speeds going up as/when the query's can be restricted to smaller and very targeted universes (Hyperledger functionality). SD

At a high-level, a database record is simply a row of elements. and often a special case of object (Plain Old Data Structure). When querying you are either pulling up the object (record) itself, or elements within it. When stored, the elements themselves are stored on a database, either private (most often) or public. At a high-level, replace the 'record' with the genesis block of a blockchain. Replace the 'record elements' with the smart contract information within each block. Access those equivalent 'elements' via the Merkle Tree. No difference in the output, big difference in the architecture, and very specific to the business application. No further comment. So what? All the block data is second party verified, it's immutable, it's accurate, but not necessarily complete. The 'database' is accessing (in near real time) every blockchain on a public ledger, anywhere in the world, and every new block being added, 24/7. Scale, immutability, and fast processing time - hell of a combination! Application? If you could access ALL the world's weather reporting data in near real time, wouldn't your weather report be a lot more accurate? Where/how the weather forecast is done materially changes, as does the job of your local weather bunny on TV. Anything where a GLOBAL view is required - this is pretty much the way you have to go. Not going to happen tomorrow, or impact investment decisions in the medium term, but it IS coming. Not a bad thing. SD

It's not just innovation in the de-fi space, it is in the database space as well .... We 'used to' store data as bytes, that the database referenced as/when required. The data had to be stored somewhere, backed up every night, and a distinction made between 'current' and 'historic' re access speeds. In the new versions ... The byte is now a blockchain, a 'record' on the blockchain accessed via the Merkle Tree, and the database is now a 'library' of code accessing block headers anywhere on the internet. The cost/upkeep of a mainframe shrunk materially, greatly expanding the potential market. So what? If you want you to beat a Facebook at its own marketing game, you need cost effective access to a high speed mainframe, with open access to the worlds data - not just a company's private data ;) Current prototypes suck, but with each iteration they get better, and the cycle time declines. The first Samsung cellphone sucked as well; but for many, it is now their everyday device, and around the world. This string is evidence as to how the resistance to blockchain is developing, .... and there will be resistance. We can mock all we want, but the sands are rapidly shifting under our feet, and we're the dinosaurs .... SD

Excellent idea! Long vilified, there are a great many fake copies of famous paintings done by extremely good artists, often as good as the masters themselves. Today that faker can become a 'name', proving their fake of a famous painting on a blockchain, and demonstrate their skill for posterity (in a good way!). Digital proof as a NFT, sold alongside the physical painting. The 60M Picasso, or the 2M fake/NFT done by the best faker in the world? The Yin/Yang of currency, reflected in art as well. Very appealing to the anarchist, and the more it disrupts a rigged art market - the more appealing! Hail the network business model. Great time to be a young person. SD

I still struggle to grasp the value of "digital" art that isn't hanging on my wall - but ultimately I do think the concept of NFTs, or the use of a blockchain to track authenticity and uniqueness, makes a TON of sense for the luxury goods world. While we're on it, can somebody build the blockchain to track home ownership so we don't have do a damn title search/title insurance everytime a piece of property is bought and sold? As long as you go with a 'name', it is actually very smart - and you get that 'name', by bidding it up ..... It's not just an NFT, it's marketing in-your-face, the proof of concept. Crypto Kitty vs 60M for a Picasso, or this - but I can prove there is only 1 of this, whereas the Picasso .... Elimination of 'art critics' pronouncing the image real, or fake, is bonus. Marketing is usually a cost. Most would expect this to sell for quite a bit more as blockchain becomes progressively more main stream; this is marketing at a profit. It's also hard to borrow cash against a token; whereas it's a lot easier to borrow against a 'thing' - paid for via token ;). Money laundering flowing through this channel, vs others, pushing prices up further. Ultimately, this is just a digital application of the gentrification process, that is well established in the RE world. Disruption. We keep hearing about it, but it was always 'someplace else' - now it is in-your-face. If you are a young person, a great time to be alive! Different strokes. SD

For the last few centuries, the first 1/3 of every century has had some kind of a boom. Obviously, different circumstances each time around, but they were all underpinned by crossing a tipping point, that resulted in a material 'go forward' change in how things were done. There is little reason to think that this time around will be much different. Our own thoughts are a roaring post Covid recovery, a 'build-back' that uses blockchain in a big way, and a focus on ESG/sustainability; today's 'dirtiest' industries being amongst the biggest beneficiaries. For a time, lots of work &/or labour shortages and higher pay; then automation and a guaranteed minimum income (particularly for women). Great for a Canada where there aren't enough young people, devastating for a China or India with large young populations - without jobs. Particularly beneficial for a Canada, where much of the economic drag is 'cemented' in old ideology (inter-provincial trade barriers); spanning everything from goods movement/production/taxation, through to immigration. Net positive, but a bumpy ride along the way. SD

Coinbase is netting, but charging every buyer/seller a commission to do the trade. It’s called fraud, and underlines why the intermediary (Coinbase) needs to be removed entirely. Spinning that it’s a technical impossibility is BS, and the tail attempting to wag the dog. The basic issue - Coinbase infrastructure not fit for the task. Coinbase, as an external broker, needs to do fewer and higher value transactions – which isn’t their business. Nothing wrong with netting, but you do it within a fund, the fund nets internally, and does a single external Coinbase trade for the token balance. Multiple trades through the day, depending upon how often you net. The ‘internal netting’ is essentially the operation of an unregistered, unregulated mutual fund, and illegal. Yes, while it may well be unintentional, and ‘just the way it is’, it is still a material ‘off side'... If the fund gets hacked, collecting on your beneficial ownership is at risk, same as it would be with any other security. If that is a concern for you, simply do bigger external transactions through someone else – who IS NOT netting. Your trade now visible as a block on the blockchain itself. You are already paying the commission. Not to knock Coinbase, as they aren’t alone; but the ‘actual’ is quite a bit different. Transparency sucks, but ultimately it leads to a better result – for everyone. SD

End of the day, kids just need to learn basic 'money management' - it should have been taught in high school, but sadly isn't. 'Investment' is really more about developing common sense, and a strong moral compass. Simply apply a magnet (Bitcoin), and you can 'bend' any compass :) Knowing 'how' is lesson 1, knowing how to defeat it (apply heat) is lesson 2, avoiding the temptation to then 'rig the game' is lesson 3. Everyone will learn differently, some quicker than others. SD

The kids will be more than occupied with a BTC ETF. Periodically give them a small allocation to open an account on the de-fi platforms and 'play'. Of course they will lose the money, but in the process they will also learn about the commissions and transactional delays related to token trading. Experience that will save them a great deal of money later; when it matters. Good luck! SD

Probably not what you want to hear, but you might want to go entirely 'modern' ... Put the investment into a Crypto Exchange Traded Fund, have the kids learn about crypto through the various videos that are freely available; and let them practice on any of the many de-fi sites. Modern kids, learning the modern way. Crypto/blockchain will probably be THE major technology and investment of his/her generation. Kids need to become as comfortable with it as breathing - and the 'old folks' need to get out of their way! Let little Johnny/Suzie take a few knocks along the way, and get right back in there - giving as well as they get. Different approach. SD

Net of mitigation, trading BTC is a lot less risky than many realize. Example: Buy 2 BTC @ 17.5K for 35K. BTC rises to 35K, sell for 70K and take a break. Buy a put or continue? Reinvest the original 35K for 1 BTC, sell at 55K. You had 50% of original exposure, & it worked out. Great! But what if it had crashed to 25K? You still only had 50% of original exposure, you only lose 10K if you sell, and you are already up 35K - affordable. Alternatively you could have just HODLed, benefited from the forced stop (delusions of invincibility), and waited for another round of mainstream portfolio allocation to raise prices. Hence, the actual risk here? not a lot. It is the same process as trading oil/gas (commodity stocks); applied to BTC, the only difference is the name. It even has LESS volatility than oil/gas when coming off the bottom of the cycle. Again, not a lot of INCREMENTAL risk here. Obviously not for everyone, but also not the stretch that many think. SD