Dinar

Why? This is a no growth business, right? 16-17x p/e on 2024 is not expensive, but what's the upside? 20x?

RTX, in my opinion, has an insanely incompetent CEO and CFO (who was an IR guy before becoming CFO.) I wonder how good the next layer of management is as well? This is NOT a business that a moron can run!

I looked into doing same right now, but there is no vol in the options.

SUI - Sun Communities at $121.33

@Xerxes, I agree 100% with you regarding the risk at Safran (which I own.) That's why Safran is a 5% position and not a 10% position. The way I deal with it also is that in my back of the envelope DCF, I assume Safran's unlevered cost of capital = inflation + 6%. I have always been worried about this given troubles at Rolls Royce.

Isn't the earnings quality lousy? A bunch of operating income comes from pensions, no? Also, given the engine issues, should we not increase discount rate since the business is riskier than perhaps we thought in the past?

Oh, I agree, I sold a few today as well it was either 50 or 70 implied vol, I forget what it was, but it seemed way too high.

So you are the one who sold 5K contracts, eh?

There is an article in the WSJ that you may find interesting re banks. https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial-real-estate-regional-banks-9f8f591d

One of my biggest investing mistakes was selling my position in ASR in 2007. One thing to remember about ASR is that it is very vulnerable to hurricanes.

Maui matters because if the local population and politicians that behaved irresponsibly (including not bothering to get insurance in many cases, and not deal with fire hazards the local government was warned about for years) is bailed out, then there is no incentive for anyone in the US to get any catastrophe insurance.

@dealraker, Charlie, I hate to go academic on you, but I think there have been a number of studies that should that companies routinely buy-back stock at the wrong time. It is almost a sell signal, with a few exceptions.

Parsad, with all due respect, that's just not true. You have water & sewer systems, which should have insurance, electric (private again should have insurance), internet (Again private should have insurance), no gas since no natural gas on the island. Roads have not really been damaged severely, at most ten or twenty miles of roadwork in the affected area anyway. Yes, an elementary school has been destroyed, but when I talked to two local builders, they told me that it would cost at most $5MM to rebuild. But let's assume that you are correct. I know of no other place in the US where the replacement cost of infrastructure on a per person basis, is $350K per person ($4bn / 11,300 Lahaina residents.) If locals want to live in a place where infrastructure is so expensive, they should pay for it themselves rather than make taxpayers around the country pay for it. Why should the rest of the country subsidize people living in paradise? I am sure people in Alaska or the Bronx would be delighted to live in Lahaina at taxpayers' expense.

I was long both Aena and Auckland airports in the past. In the former, government screwed the company during 2020-2021 on minimum guarantees, and I don't like capital allocation. Auckland diluted at the bottom. On a going forward basis, I think Aena is going to be under major threat from long distance rail due to environmental issues, in addition, tourism to Spain may suffer if indeed the planet is warming. Auckland's valuation is insane in my opinion.

Th This seems to be the strategy in Maui now. Their representatives asked for $4bn in aid ($330K per man/woman/child)! Most of the damage should have been covered by insurance. By the way, I love the Maui locals approach: tourists do not come, while the rest of the country send us cash to rebuild because we could not be bothered to work 40 hours a week, and buy insurance.

Bob Iger is the one that got Disney into this mess, you think his arrogance will fix the melting ice cubes outside of parks?

Marco Polo certainly had a very high opinion of the Mongol rule in China.

Greg, what is the thesis? Thank you.

It is a binary situation. It is either a zero or it does really well. If the utility caused the fire, I don't care what the law says, it is a zero. The destruction is horrific, and loss of life is immense. Many kids died.

Buffett disclosed stakes in DR Horton, NVR and Lennar

Local shares., NOT ADRs.

Nintendo

Parsad, I am sorry, but I do not follow. At a p/e = 16, earnings yield = 6.5% (free cash flow yield is less), add in your 3% real GDP growth, you get 9.5% annualized post inflation. Meanwhile, 30 year TIP are at 2.1%, and 30 year Treasury is at 4.27%, so you think that stocks should have an 7.4% risk premium over 30 year treasury? Thank you. I remember reading somewhere that Buffet used to discount company earnings (assuming a high quality business) by a rate on a ten year treasury. T

Why do you think so? How do you think what is the appropriate p/e for a given level of interest rates? Thank you.

I don't defend Russia. I have hated Putin since I first heard of him in the 1990s. Anyone who joined KGB voluntarily in my opinion was not a good person. Russia did not commit genocide in Ukraine in 1920s and 1930s. The communist run USSR with Stalin (a Georgian) did via Holodomor. I would understand if someone whose family died during Holodomor would join the German army to get revenge against communists, but SS? Yes, Katyn was a massacre and a war crime, what is your point? Yes, there was anti-semitism in the USSR, and only death of Stalin saved Soviet Jews from mass murder. That gives Bandera & Co a pass? Bandera and his men were responsible for over one hundred thousand Polish and Jewish civilian deaths. How is he different from Hitler? A civilized country would consider him a war criminal, today's Ukraine erects statues to him. A population and country that considers someone like Hitler a national hero does not deserve support in my book. Yes, I understand that not everyone in Ukraine supports Bandera. My wife and I generously donated to help Ukrainian refugees, since I do not hold children responsible for the acts of their parents/grandparents/ancestors. My wife is from Ukraine and three of my four grandparents are from there. That does not mean that I am blind to what is going there. Ukraine is irrelevant to the US. Russia is a rapidly declining power, millions of its young people fled because of the war. How can it challenge the US? China yes, India, yes, Islamic terrorists, yes, Iran yes, Pakistan via jihadi exports and nuclear weapons, sure, but Russia? It is a paper tiger.