Dinar

I would agree that inflation (official = recorded) will be higher in the next decade than in the past decade. I think due to de-globalization, demographics, dumbing down of American population, disdain for manual labor (even very highly skilled manual labor), belief that everyone should go to college to get a degree in film studies/gender studies/Shakespeare/art history/et all, lack of investment in commodities & housing. I think it will average 3-4% per annum on a going forward basis on a recorded/official basis, and probably 4-5% on a real basis.

@SharperDingaan, what do you think of CNQ? It seems very cheap to me, but I am an oil/gas tourist.

What has been educational inflation? I hear that private schools in NYC and Ivy League are raising tuition 4%, in line with historical averages, if not less than historical averages.

@Viking, actually that is not correct. You are assuming that Social Security = 100% of those people's incomes. That is just not right. Once you take into account pensions, may often are not indexed to inflation - my father's isn't for instance, portfolio income, et cetera, the increase is not 8.7%.

May be you should take your insults to another website.

Please do.

Spek, I got hassled in NYC in Riverside Park by police for not having my mask on. I told them that according to NYS law, it is prohibited to wear mask (this is actually true), and also why would I need to wear a mask in park when the nearest person was 30 feet away. They said - these are our orders, you must put on your mask. I decided not to argue with them further, because I was afraid that I would be arrested. Bastion of liberty and law NY is not.

That's awesome. I love academia, I'd love an adjunct gig at a university (I'd do it for free) since I miss intellectual stimulation. There were a number of awesome professors in my PhD programs, very well rounded, very well read, very thoughtful and with plenty of common sense.

The issue is double standards. When Black Lives Matters protesters flouted bans against protests/assemblies, rioted, looted, nothing was done. When Bible groups tried to meet, well, Covid rules prohibit that. When left wingers block bridges, roads, block speakers from campuses, that's o'k. When right-wingers do that, arrest them all.

Sure. The problem is that commuting costs so much time and money (in NYC suburbs as much as $5k per person per year and up to 1000 (one thousand) hours per year) that there is a real question whether it is worth it despite loss of interactions and creativity.

Bought INDT, sold MANU Dec 2022 21 puts

By the way, spoke with someone who works for a large hospital chain in NJ. 3% wage increases for staff for 2023, so certainly no wage inflation there.

Thank you sir!

Do you think that had ayatollah Montazeri became supreme leader, things would have been different and how?

Which ones? Thank you.

Spek, there was an excellent Germany Gypsy female singer in the 1950s-1970s. I think her first name starts with D, that's all I know, I once heard her on the radio in a small town on the Rhine a dozen years ago. Do you by chance know the name? Thank yo.

I think that he has been really bad at choosing successors and really good at paying them insane amounts.

Don't forget Kursk submarine accident. If I remember correctly, there were rumors that a US sub accidentally rammed it.

You know Poles crushed Communists when they invaded Poland in 1919, thank God for Pilsudski

I am sure that it will cause a stock market rally in Europe, led by luxury goods, cosmetics, and spirits - Russia is a big market and Philip Morris International - Russia+Ukraine 10% of revenues. German machinery companies and Epiroc will benefit - 5% of revenues I believe were from Russia. Other than that, very hard to say. As Truman used to say, do you have a one-handed economist? If Russian energy starts flowing to Europe as before, that's obviously very disinflationary, of course it is not clear whether Europeans will be dumb enough to be at Russia's mercy again. On the other hand, millions of Ukrainian and Russian refugees are generally hard workers, and highly skilled, so that in turn could push labor inflation up in Europe/USA/Canada if/when these people return back to their homelands. However, this return will in turn depress demand for real estate in Europe/US/Canada. Assuming something along a Marshall plan is done for Ukraine, that probably will be wildly inflationary as this $750bn figure floated somewhere will be spent and where will the West get the money if not by money printing? Also, given that there has not been a rule of law in Ukraine since 1917, I doubt private capital would be available on any reasonable terms, unless investors considered it charity. On the other hand, Ukrainian diaspora is very numerous, very patriotic (at least in the small but statistically significant self-selected sample size that I have encountered over the last three decades), and quite wealthy, so perhaps I am wrong and the same way Jews financed Israel in the 1920s-1960s, Ukrainians will finance Ukraine. Ukraine is a blessed country in terms of agricultural wealth for instance, historically very hard working people, excellent universities, and many very highly skilled engineers/mathematicians/computer programmers. I would personally buy $10K of Ukrainian reconstruction bonds with zero expectations of ever seeing my money again.

I am not sure that I agree on a couple of points: a) Why do you think China is an ally of Russia? Perhaps Xi thought that this war was unlikely to strengthen Russia, and perhaps drastically weaken it, which is in China's interest. What have they done to help Russia, besides buy oil/gas on the cheap, and now Russia has to sell gas to China at a huge discount to LNG prices b) Why are you surprised by Saudi behavior. If I call you a murder, will you do a favor for me? Biden called Prince Salman a murder, and then expects the guy to bend over backwards to help him. Really?

I get it, you think Bandera and company are wonderful, and murder of hundreds of thousands of Poles and Jews is fine. I asked you several times point blank if you think Bandera should be a national hero of Ukraine, you never answered. Your silence is answer enough.

So I am not suggesting that Ukraine gives up the territory that Russia seized in 2022, reading Putin's speeches, it seems to me that he is looking for a way out, so perhaps (and I have no special insight), an agreement that Ukraine does not enter NATO would allow Putin to claim victory, and for Russian troops to depart. (I doubt Ukraine will be able to get territories seized prior to 2022 until Putin passes and a normal successor comes and a genuine referendum is done there. I would be shocked however if Crimea was ever returned. It was part of Russian Empire for centuries and was transferred from Russian Federation to Ukraine in 1954 by Khruschev (ethnic Ukrainian) as a gift to commemorate 300 year anniversary of Russia+Ukraine union. ) I think that the biggest threat to the US/Western Europe is China, followed by Iran and Islamic terrorism. My guess is that Iran will no longer be a threat in say 5 or 10 years since I assume that its clerical regime will be gone. Persia was a very accomplished civilization centuries before Christ. Since I believe that China is the biggest threat to the US/Western Europe, I would like to see a strong Russia as a counterweight to China (remember Nixon went to China to use China as a counterweight to USSR.) Weak Russia that is dependent on China and Iran is not in our interests. Nuclear & strategic missile technology in the hands of Iranian clerics is not a good thing in my opinion. If I am not mistaken, you are referring to the security guarantees given by countries including China to Ukraine when it gave up nukes. I do not remember the agreement well, but are Germany/Poland/Italy on the hook as well?

I know history, none of this is new to me. Russia is not USSR, Communism and Nazism are two sides of the same coin. I am sorry, but what's your point? Does any of this justify what Bandera and his men did? Ukraine clearly considers genocide admirable when victims are Poles and Jews, so why are they surprised if Russians adopt a tactic that Ukraine considers praiseworthy? You do not say a word about these men, do you consider them heroes? My point is three fold: a) I would not call this genocide - yes, killing one civilian is a tragedy, and probably hundreds of Ukrainian civilians have died, but to call this a genocide would be a stretch. This is not a plan to wipeout Ukrainian people, who sadly are doing it successfully themselves (look at Ukrainian demographics - if I am not mistaken, the number of 5 year olds was down 25% in 2020 vs 1989 in Ukraine). I am thankfully not aware of Dresden/Tokyo fire raid type bombardment of Lviv for instance. If Putin's plan was to commit genocide, surely we would have gotten this type of attack by now, no? b) People that think that Stepan Bandera and Roman-Taras Yosypovych Shukhevych deserve statues rather than infamy along the lines of Hitler forfeit a right to complain about genocide. c) People everywhere usually act in their own self interest. When individuals act in a righteous manner, that's a cause for celebration, when nations act this way, it is incredible. Nobody owns Ukraine anything, and it is NOT in the interest of the US or Europe to support Ukraine. This support will go away at some point, the question is how quickly? It is in the interest of Ukraine to settle things with Russia before the West pulls support. I wish that the war would end as soon as possible. I think that it is in the interest of both Ukraine and Russia, as well as US and Europe that it ends asap. The only ones who gain are the Chinese, the Indians, and the Iranian regime. I am very sorry for the Ukrainians. {I have three grandparents from Ukraine, my wife is from Kiev, my best friend is from Kiev (and his grandmother is still there), I still have an aunt and cousin in Ukraine. My wife and donated significant amount of money to Ukrainian refugees, and so did my parents and in-laws. } I will not debate your further. You are acting very emotionally, and I have no desire to stress you out further.

You asked why. So here is a view that many Russians express and frankly, I cannot argue with the logic, although I find it morally wrong. Stepan Bandera is a national hero of Ukraine, with numerous statues in cities like Lviv, and many streets named after him. This national hero and his men murdered hundreds of thousands of Polish and Jewish civilians in the 20th century. So clearly Ukrainian people consider genocide something admirable, so why do you get worked up if it happens to them? They clearly think it is wonderful! But for a people who consider mass murder to be admirable when they do it to Jews or Poles but a tragedy when it happens to them, well, I am sorry, but this is a pot calling the kettle black or karma. Again, this is not my personal view, and I do not hold grandchildren responsible for the sins of their grandfathers, but I would like grandchildren to acknowledge that mass murder is wrong, even if it is done by their grandfathers.