Dinar

Just a data point. My daughter's private nursery school in NYC said that there will be no tuition increase for 2023-2024 academic year. Too late for us, but interesting.

In many states like NY, mortgages are fully recourse

There are long discussion threads on each one of these names and there are also VIC write-ups on all three.

Greg, you should take a look at Chris Hohn at TCI - I think he is as good as Ackman, also Nick Sleep - his letters are floating around the web, and he did his thing 20 years ago.

My favorite REITs at today's prices are: AIV, CLPR & VRE. If the price ever gets to $50, I will load up the truck on ELS - Equity Lifestyle

It is fantastic, I love this one

Given the very hard insurance market - supposedly 50% price increases, shouldn't profits be higher?

CNQ - Canadian Natural Resources

I think that you will regret your choice. BTI is losing volumes at 3%+ per annum, and even faster in the more profitable US market. Revenues barely grew by 3-4% in 2022 in constant currency despite 10% inflation. I would not touch it and Altria with a ten foot pole. PM (which I own) is a much better choice in my opinion.

Who do you trade expert stocks through? Thank you.

Make sure that you have enough money to pay the bills assuming the business does not make any money for three to five years.

I would say that the healthcare problem in the US is much much bigger issue and harder to solve than the real estate issue. It is a cancer on American society.

I think we should specify in which currency the portfolio performed, since USD is up 5%+ against the Euro and nearly 10% against the pound sterling in 2022.

Down 6.4%

There is always a chance, but it is difficult. A general rule of thumb is when a war starts, you borrow long at fixed rates and buy productive assets. The problem occurs when either your assets get destroyed in war, or revolution or via price controls.

I generally agree with you, except David Tepper who is a phenomenal trader went on CNBC a couple of weeks ago and said that he thinks S&P should go to 3000-3200

Bought Clipper (CLPR) today

Blackstone and its ilk will be materially less profitable on a going forward basis. Here is why: a) Less demand for their services. At zero interest rates, people have to flock to equities, real estate & private equity. At 7% on mortgage paper, they can just lend. b) A lot lower returns, and hence lower management and incentive fees. When you buy assets putting 20-50% down and using 50-80% debt financing at 3-4%, you make a lot of money. When you have to put 50% down and use 5-9% debt financing, returns on levered equity are much lower, so you have to charge less. c) Recent controversy (unjustified) in my opinion over gating at BREIT is not helping.

During the Cold War era, there were no hedge funds in the USSR and the Soviet banks generally did not lend to individuals. There were essentially no private businesses either. Also, it was illegal to own foreign currency in the USSR. What you are describing did happen in Germany post WWI. The strategy also depends on interest rates paid. In Ukraine, many assets probably were destroyed. The ruble has actually strengthened against the USD, at least on the "official" market.

Q is a idiotic measure. Q of 0.5 for a Five Seasons in the middle of Sahara is insanely overpriced, Q = 2 for an airport in the middle of Paris is insanely cheap.

A couple of points, it is actually Ben Graham's P/E, he came up with the concept first. More importantly, is this accurate? Here is why I ask 2013 S&P 500 EPS = 128.13 or 163.7 in today's dollars given the 27.77% official inflation over the past decade 2022 S&P 500 EPS = 190. The average of the two is 176.86, so at 3854, it is 21.8 (I know I should use the average of the entire 10 year period but I am being lazy and this should be close enough.) So it it is not 28.21 (May be if you include 2020) Also, there is no adjustment being made for cash held by the likes of MSFT & GOOG (3.5% and 10% of market cap respectively) and no adjustment is made for the level of interest rates.

Read Philip Fischer - common stocks and uncommon profits, if you have not already. If I like something, I will pay ask so not to kick myself later.

It is a pleasure to deal with an erudite debater. Yes, my Italian teacher in high school had a hissy fit when I called Napoleon a Frenchman. We can remove Italy and add the Germans, the French - from Louis the XI through Napoleon I. The reason that I did not mention the Ottomans is that I think Erdogan and company would love to put on the hat of Mehmed II. The Hapsburgs were more in the mold of acquisition via marriage rather than war.

A 950 sq foot condo in Manhattan would cost anywhere from $1MM to $5MM depending on location, condition and views. Why is the writer comparing cost of a two bedroom to a cost of a one-bedroom? Seems like sloppy/dishonest reporting. Also, how big are property taxes in China? In Manhattan, they can easily = 2% of the value of the condo per year. So if say property taxes in China = 0%, while in Manhattan they = 2% of the value per annum, that alone should justify 50%-60% higher prices in China vs Manhattan relative to income.

How big are you trying to get? If this is as attractive as you think, why not pay up 2-3% and get it? Unless you are trying to buy $5MM of it.