Dinar

You are right. In terms of productivity by the way, look up a NYT article from a few years back about 2nd avenue subway. Not only twice as many workers were used than needed, but for instance a machine that in France is operated by two people was operated by fifteen or twenty in NY. There is insane amount of low hanging fruit, the question is when it will be harvested.

Even if true? Rather than accuse me of lying, care to check for yourself and see? As for change, sooner than you think, as tax base flees NY, reforms become inevitable

When NY State has 40% of the population on Medicaid, the assertion that everybody with a pulse is already working is clearly wrong. There are plenty of misallocated resources. I was at the Intrepid yesterday with my kids, the place could be run with half of the employees. Google, Facebook, Microsoft, et all added 200,000+ jobs in the past couple of years, what are all of those people doing? How many people are engaged in diversity/equity/inclusion racket? Colleges are bloated with admin staff, today Harvard has more administrators than professors. Start taxing endowment gains and take away Pell Grants and federally subsidized student loans, and watch colleges magically cut tuition and expenses. Raising productivity is doable in the US, it starts with good schools, and not subsidizing college degrees in English/Cultural Anthropology/Art History while looking down at trade schools and closing vocational high schools. Take away college subsidies and see how greatly labor force will increase.

@Spekulatius, when you look at CP, you need to adjust for what will be close to two billion in synergies with KSU once the deal closes, and the fact that KSU has been growing volumes in low single digit per year. Canadian railroads - both CP & CNI can probably grow volumes at 1% per annum, layer in price = inflation + 0.5-1% per annum, possibilities of additional costs cuts thanks to technology, and then they do not look expensive anymore, at least to me.

@ValueArb, if you do not mind sharing, what is roughly the commission schedule for Robotti and Caldwell Sutter or whoever you use? Thank you

That's why risk premium exists, the point is that it should be calculated properly rather than omitting most of the return that comes from owning equities - earnings growth over time.

If this guy computes equity risk premium as earnings yield - bond yield, he is incompetent and is not fit to come close to the stock market. Any equity risk premium that does not take into account future growth and capital that is required to provide is not worth the paper it is printed on.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/thousands-of-ukrainians-in-u-s-risk-losing-legal-status-in-april-d6bceaf4?mod=hp_lead_pos7 Incredible. Instead of welcoming these educated, hard working people who greatly suffered, our government is keeping them in limbo, and potentially deporting them to their devastated country. Probably the only time in my life that I wished Carter was President. Although he did deregulate the airlines and railroads, so he certainly helped the country in that regard.

Yes, Russia has been a paper tiger for decades. By the way, how did you get your estimate of Pentagon spending $100-150bn per annum on the Russian threat? I would frankly worry more about China, North Korea, and Islamic terrorists than Putin and his crew of incompetent buffoons

Why would we devote anything to the Russian threat? They cannot defeat a country with 1/3 of the population and may be 1/5 the wealth, how could Russia be a threat to the US?

They have volume growth and will continue to have it, while others do not

Why UNP and not say CNI or CP? (I am long CNI & CP, but not other rails)

Man, that's low. How can I move to Vancouver? Nice two bedroom in NYC is at least USD 8K in Manhattan (10K+ CAD), and as much in nice neighborhoods in Brooklyn.

What makes you think that there is political support for Ukraine in France, Italy, UK, US, et all? Have the people been polled? Just because Biden was on Ukraine's payroll does not meant US public supports the war and the 50-100bn that was given to Ukraine. Do you really think that a typical family in the US would willingly give up a $1000 for Ukraine, let alone several thousand more that Ukraine is asking for? Similarly, I doubt that the public in Europe west of Poland/Czech Republic actually supports Ukraine despite what those leaders say/do. Does the west actually have the ability to supply ammunition and the weapons that Ukraine needs/requests? When the entire Western Europe has 1000 battle ready tanks... When Ukraine fires more shells in a month than the US produces in a year? Yes, the war clearly is very unpopular in Russia, but will that stop Putin & co? In the long run, Russia has the advantage, and that's why once its nose was bloodied, the smart thing was to try to get a peace agreement or an armistice, instead we hear warmongers calling for Crimea returned to Kiev. The smart player knows when to hold and when to fold. I disagree that the war or Ukraine are existential to Russia. I do not agree with Zeihan's point of view. Where are the new Panzer divisions going to come from? Germany? France? Give me a break! And the threat is far likelier to come from the East - China or South - Iran/Pakistan/ than from Germany or Poland.

@Gregmal, are you headed to the ST Joe area? Why do you prefer that to say Boca Raton? Thank you.

I got solicited by Fidelity the other day for a private real estate fund, the first time that this has happened in two decades even though I have had roughly the same amount of money there for a decade plus.

I thought I had F you money, but then I got married....

Yeah, and it is cultural! There is a reason why Chinese thrive in every country they are in! Culture matters and trumps almost everything!

Spek, I am not sure about the accuracy of the statistics that you cited. In NY, around 40% of the population if I am not mistaken is on Medicaid. Seems to me NY has a problem with labor force participation, no? In California, 33% are on Medicaid, and 55% of births are to women on Medicaid. Given that someone who works 40 hours per week, will enjoy income north of $40K a year in NY or California, something tells me that quite a few people are not working. Also, if my wife is not working and is at home raising our three children, she is not participating in the labor force. If my wife works and we hire a nanny, then she is participating. That could easily account for the difference in labor force participation.

Well, there is an accounting concept held to maturity (Spek & others discussed it before.) Basically, it means that if bank plans to hold security to maturity, it does not have to mark it to market. So when bonds go down 40%, the balance sheet does not reflect this. While the Fed may not shut the bank down, the loss will manifest itself through the income statement overtime due to much lower net interest margins.

Be careful with banks, some may be insolvent due to collapse in bond prices

The best way to lower inflation is to increase labor supply. To do that, you need to create incentives to work. So, a) gut welfare and social programs; b) cut marginal tax rates - in NYC they approach 60%

Bought Diageo today.

@thepupil, what's the best way to play CLO AAA? Thank you.

@Castanza, do not debate. Anyone who says anything rational here is immediately called a Putin apologist, and a pro-Russian jerk. One can be sympathetic to the Ukrainian cause and abhor Putin & Russian invasion, while being realistic about vulnerabilities of both sides, however too many people here cannot think rationally about this war.