Dinar

@thepupil, so I would agree with you that bonds are beginning to look interesting, particularly TIPS - 2.4% real yield, although I would still prefer to own PM or L'Oreal than TIPS. However, where I disagree with you is your point that it is very hard to lose money in bonds. In your 08/06/2020 example, in real terms, you are down another 20%+. To be down 35% after-tax is gigantic for supposedly a "safe" asset. By the way, that's probably for the index. The long bond is down 50% before inflation and 60% after. From here yes, I think you will do well in TIPS in a tax indifferent account or to preserve wealth. To grow wealth for a taxpayer, I don't see how it can be done given 40.8% marginal tax rate (37%+3.8% Obama surtax) when say 30 year pays 4.85% (so 2.9% post tax but before inflation.)

What one would describe as office furniture - desk, et all

IKEA is now running sales in NY, I have not seen that in years.

Sold MSGE Nov 30 puts at $1.15 today.

Yes, people know the drivers of inflation - deglobalization, increased government spending in the US, rising oil price, aging population, more aggressive labor unions and workers, green new deal. What about drivers of deflation in the US? Reduced demand for goods and services in the US driven by student loan repayments - $70bn per year as well as higher interest rates (car payments are going up, so are new mortgages), perhaps flat government spending in the US in nominal terms if Republicans can hold the line on spending. Automation. Perhaps if the pendulum starts swinging the other way and soft on crime policies reverse, then losses & inflation due to theft will go down, and people might actually need to get a job rather than steal with no consequences? Rising debt burden - inflationary or deflationary? Inflation is almost always with us due to loose fiscal and monetary policy (look at Switzerland to see how to avoid inflation). I think raising rates here is a huge mistake, the full impacts have not worked through the economy yet. Between increase in rates & Fed shrinking portfolio, tightening has been faster than due Paul Volcker era if I am not mistaken.

Where did you see that major weapons budgets are doubling over the next four years? Thank you.

Putin is a degenerate, and should not have invaded, nor has he any right to dictate to free nations how to behave, but you lose all credibility with posts like this. Poland was part of the Russian empire, so were the Baltic States and Finland. Western Ukraine (Galicia) was not.

@John Hjorth, as US taxpayer, I do not have a problem with welcoming Ukrainian refugees to the US. I think US will gain mightily from these mostly highly educated and hardworking people. I do have a problem with a porous border, that allows millions of people from Haiti, Yemen, Africa, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Latin America to cross into the US, people who at best will be a drain on society, and at worst will commit crimes and terrorist acts. Keep in mind, unskilled immigrants also destroy job prospects and wage growth for unskilled Americans, creating all sorts of social problems - alcoholism, drug addiction, broken families, fatherless children, and the list goes on.

You are right, I should have been more explicit. I am assuming that all FFO gets paid out as either dividends or share buy-backs, and there will be no more acquisitions. In reality, they have opportunities to invest some capital at 10%+ yield on development, and they will probably acquire property over time. Assuming acquisitions are not very big and value destroying my approximation should hold.

@thepupilSUI has been real good at selling shares.... I agree with you, I hate dilution, but love the assets. In retrospect, good share sales by the company: 9.2MM at $139.5 on 09/30/2020, 8.05MM at $140 on 03/04/2021, and 4.03MM at $185 on 11/15/2021. I just think on a same store basis, it can raise prices at 1% above inflation, so call it inflation + 1.5% EBITDA growth, so say inflation + 2-3% FFO growth per year, assuming no acquisition, so total return = 8-9% + inflation per annum.

No way this is early 2008 in the US. There like 5 bids for every home that comes on the market, half from cash only buyers. There was very strict mortgage underwriting in the US over the past decade.

@thepupil, why would you own ELME rather than SUI? Thank you.

Two quick comments: a) BTI is better than MO since it is both cheaper (adjusting MO for the stake in BUD and BTI for the stake in ITC) and has slower volume decline thanks to its non-US business b) BUD just had an investor day, and seems quite cheap to me, although I do not own it. Company is essentially promising both organic volume growth and margin expansion, neither of which is priced in as far as I can see.

Why? What do you think of Entain news today? (Somewhat different business, but still) Thank you.

Made up history? So Shushkevich and Bandera and their men did not kill hundreds of thousands of Poles and Jews? Their statues are not all over Ukraine?

German government does NOT glorify Nazis, you do not see statues of Nazis in Germany. Ukrainian government does. That's a key difference for me.

The Ukrainians that joined SS in World War II and murdered hundreds of thousands of Jews and Poles are considered national heroes. That's not some Ukrainian, they are national heroes. You worship genocidal maniacs? That's your right, but do not expect the rest of the world to help a country that believes genocide is a good thing.

Go read the thread and you will find it. I have never been a fan of Putin nor do I think that the Russian invasion was justified. You however seem incapable of admitting that Shushkevich and Bandera were mass murderers, and committed genocide. A nation that glorifies people who commit genocide, calls them national heroes and puts up their statues cannot expect sympathy from civilized people. Its people yes, its government no!

Funny, Zelensky was applauding a man who would burn alive his grandparents if he had the chance. In other news.... https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/russias-army-learns-from-its-mistakes-in-ukraine-a6b2eb4?mod=hp_lead_pos1

Oh, I am not saying that Biden should have done nothing, I am saying that as an American citizen, I wish Biden was as concerned with our borders as he is with Ukrainian borders.

What is so great about Mary Barra or the clowns running Ford, or United Airlines, or most large US companies? L'Oreal has been crushing Estee Lauder while paying a fraction to top management, similarly Safran vs RTX, and the list goes on. What is so great about Sundar Pinchai at Google? Does Satya Nadella really deserve $200MM per annum or would he work less hard for $100MM per annum?

I find it interesting that Democrats and Biden, are willing to work so hard to defend Ukrainian borders, but not willing to lift a finger to defend American borders from millions of invaders.

What makes you say that? I am not assuming that.

I think what would be real competitive with equities is a 30 year zero coupon Treasury issued in 1981/1982, without checking, I'd bet it crushed S&P over its 30 year life. Also, TIPS issued/trading at 4% real in late 1990s.

In the first half of that period (09/20/1973-09/20/1998) S&P 500 returned 13.7% per annum. Given that 10 year started at under 7% in that time period and 30 Year when it appeared a couple of years later was under 9%, hard to see how a 10 or 30 year would have outperformed. So how would have a savvy bond investor returned more than 13.7% per annum from 09/20/1973 to 09/20/1998, unless it was in distressed debt, but non-investment grade debt was never mentioned?