Dinar

@Viking, why do you think BAC benefits? Sure, it will probably get more deposits, but I believe that the bank lost an incredible amount of money on long term treasuries, mortgage backed securities and regular mortgages. It's tangible equity on a mark to market basis divided by total assets is very low. I think that its net income margin will probably come under pressure due to consumers wising up to higher rates, and going after CDs & money markets. I also think that the commercial loan book is about to come under pressure as the economy weakens, and have you looked at their exposure to office loans? Same questions can be applied to Citibank and Wells Fargo. GS & MS are completely different animals, but have you looked at their balance sheet, particularly liabilities? What happens if credit spreads on their paper widen out 200 basis points, which is probably reasonable given CS?

https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2023/03/how-many-banks-are-in-danger.html According to the academic paper this guy cites, $2 trillion of losses across the banking sector. I bet they ain't at JP Morgan! Also, losses may be understated since loans are not being marked to market, only marketable securities.

Just because you want the poor to stay poor does not mean the rest of us want to! I would be delighted if everyone around me prospered.

I think the key question is whether the business model just got upended? 39% of deposits here are non-interest bearing, and average interest rate paid on deposits was 1.11% in Q4. What happens if people realize that they can now get close to 5% on T-bills? If interest rates on deposits have to rise by 300 basis points, the bank makes zero profit. Normally banks fall because people worry about credit quality, a situation where the insiders have an edge. This is modeling behavior shift by customers, very hard to predict. Also, I find their credit quality to be mediocre. 1.86% of their loans are criticized loans, which in my opinion, is insanely high given the low interest rates they charge on the loans (5-5.5%) and the health of the economy. What happens in a recession? Charlie, what am I missing? You are not a dummy, what siren draws you here?

Have you marked loans to market? Being long a 30 year 3% mortgage is not the same as being long a T-bill. I think if you mark to market the loan book, the bank is insolvent.

The biggest risk to this country in my opinion, is complete disrepect for work and normalization of welfare. Welfare started as aid to widows with children during the Great Depression. It used to be shameful to shop with food stamps, now it is an accepted practice. I will gladly pay taxes so that kids from poor neighborhoods are protected from crime and go to good schools. I do NOT want to pay tax so that: a) Welfare, Medicaid, free housing, free phones, free food & other benefits are given out to those who refuse to work but continue to breed b) NYC spends $40K per pupil per year on education, of which $10K reaches the school, and $30K is consumed by central bureaucracy

Perhaps, is 445bn in VC funding only for tech, or for biotech as well? also look on the other side of the coin: a) All of these companies carry a lot of deadwood, Meta fired 13% of employees last year, and will fire another 13% this year. That's 20K employees, say at $400K per employee, that's $8bn in annual expenses just for Meta, holding comp per employee flat. b) Compensation is absurd, with 500K-1MM per year comp packages being a frequent occurrence, and many making even more - looking at you Salesforce. Say GOOG/META/MSFT/CRM et all cut 200-300K jobs, companies like Docusing/Wayfair, et all fire another 50-300K workers and comp per employee can decline 30% as well. So say comp per employee also get cut by 30% or $120K. So that's another $7bn for Meta. So Meta can cut $15bn of costs without much difficulty? Google's employee count swelled since 2017, why? What are those 50K+ people doing? At say $500K per head, that's $25bn, add to that savings on the rest of the staff, and between the two you have $50bn of savings?

Korean War - Chinese killed tens of thousands of Americans in Korea. Chinese invaded Korea when it was clear that communists were going to be destroyed. Vietnam by the way another example.

well, we forgave Germany and Japan and China, so why not Russia?

Greg, with all due respect, I could not disagree more. 5% inflation is a huge problem, it confiscates the wealth of people, including tens of millions of retirees, and those who are prudent, including many who while working low wage jobs do save. Clearly this was caused by Trump's stimulus checks, exacerbated by Biden, worsened by shut down of the economy by the likes of Cuomo and Powell being irresponsible by keeping rates so low for so long. However, to say that 5% inflation is not a problem, it actually is. If you make 6% real return in the stock market (historical average over the last 90 years) then post tax you make 4-5% in a world of zero inflation, and 0% in the world of 5% inflation in real terms post tax & inflation. Inflation is confiscation of wealth! How many countries have succeeded with 5% annual inflation?

He runs a group. What would you like? Do you want to email me your resume so that I can forward it to him, or would you like something else? As an aside, there is nothing wrong with not being from Yale/Harvard/Princeton/Wharton. If I were in your shoes, I would do three things, a) contact alums from your school or high school that work in the industry; b) emphasize in your coverletter your strengths - for instance a good journalist certainly has very valuable skills for stock picking. c) Include a stock pitch

A good friend has be been working at Point72 for a dozen years, and is very happy. I would be careful about judging places based on newspaper articles.

He did not try, he actually did as far as I know.

I agree. As a Yale alum, it pains me to admit it. Funny, I was accepted to U Chicago as well, and I remember their core curriculum being a strong draw. Oh well.

https://mcusercontent.com/ea8e8120d9fd32d5e5e17bf67/files/afe24bc1-df56-67e8-6751-9af50a254189/4.American_universities_are_hiring_based_on_devotion_to_diversity.pdf

Well, they are funding science and we are funding welfare! In addition, we select scientists based on diversity, commitment to racial quotas and such, and the Chinese foolishly do not!

Here is a link to a write-up from 18 months ago, it is NOT my write-up. I think the business has improved since then. Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE IT) Investment Overview October 2021 A Brief History ▪Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (“TASE,” or “the company”) began operations in 1953 when a consortium of Israeli banks and investment houses joined together to establish the exchange. ▪Over the next ~50 years, TASE established a clearing house, enabled electronic trading, launched options trading, and created the first exchange traded note. ▪In 2000, the Knesset (the unicameral national legislature of Israel) approved an amendment to Israeli securities law enabling dual listing in Tel Aviv for shares that were listed in the United States. ▪Subsequently, the company expanded upon this arrangement, allowing dual listing of securities trading on the London Stock Exchange and Nasdaq. ▪In 2018, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Toronto were also added for dual-listing. ▪In 2017, the Knesset ratified an amendment enabling changes to TASE's ownership structure. Additionally, the Israeli District Court ratified the TASE demutualization arrangement. ▪The privatization paved the way for TASE’s for-profit evolution, reducing conflicts of interest and increasing TASE’s freedom to operate as an independent, standalone entity. ▪In August 2017, Itai Ben-Zeev was appointed as CEO. ▪In July 2019, TASE became a publicly traded company when it floated 31.7% of its shares to foreign and Israeli institutional investors and to the public at large. ▪The shares trade under the Bloomberg ticker symbol “TASE IT”. 2 Source: company filings and presentations. Business Description ▪TASE is a monopoly financial infrastructure asset that plays a central role in Israel’s capital markets and overall economy. ▪The company is unique among global exchanges in that it spans the gamut of Israel’s entire capital markets infrastructure, offering products and services that include (a) listing, (b) trading in equities, fixed income, and derivatives, (c) clearing and settlement, (d) securities lending, (e) IT/co-location, (f) market data, and (g) indices. ▪To our knowledge, no other exchange has all these products and services under one roof. ▪TASE’s revenue streams are diverse, with non-transactional revenue (e.g., clearing, market data) growing as a percentage of the 3 overall mix 1H21 Revenue by Source 1H21 Revenue by Type 16% 20% 21% 40% 40% Trading and clearing commissions Clearing house services Other Securities registration Distribution of trading and other data Transactional Non-transactional Source: company filings and presentations. 60% Investment Thesis A recent demutualization and IPO, TASE is a monopoly financial infrastructure asset that we believe is capable of compounding intrinsic value at ~35%+ annually in the coming years. Historically, TASE operated as a member-owned, not-for-profit entity run primarily for the benefit of Israeli banks. Strategic and financial decisions were made on behalf of the company’s members. TASE’s recent demutualization reduces conflicts of interest and increases its freedom to operate as an independent, standalone entity. We believe that TASE has significant opportunities to launch new products and services, optimize pricing, and drive efficiency gains. We expect significant value creation to result from accelerating revenue growth and margin expansion. In addition, there are several sources of value which we expect management to realize over time that, in aggregate, can be worth more than half of the company’s current market capitalization. We believe management is highly incentivized to create value and is taking appropriate steps in this direction. Finally, we believe that TASE could be an acquisition target for a larger global exchange. We note the following: ▪ TASE’s revenue growth is accelerating and can grow sustainably in the high-single / low-double digits. ▪ The company’s margins can double or more as they approach peer levels over time. ▪ TASE owns its corporate headquarters building, which alone is worth ~30% of the current enterprise value and can be monetized. ▪ An unusual arrangement with pre-demutualization shareholders could result in cash proceeds to TASE equivalent to ~14% of the current enterprise value (without additional dilution). ▪ Net cash currently on the balance sheet (~7% of the market cap) and future free cash flow generation (we estimate ~30% of its current market cap over the next ~5 years) provide management with significant firepower for organic and inorganic investments. ▪ TASE’s CEO, Ittai Ben-Zeev owns options on 4.25 million shares, providing a strong incentive to create value. ▪ Given significant consolidation activity in the exchange space over the years, we think TASE could be acquired by a larger global exchange for a significant premium. 4 Thesis Point #3: Owned Real Estate a Sizable “Hidden Asset” ▪ TASE owns its corporate headquarters building at 2 Ahuzat Bayit Street in downtown Tel Aviv. ▪ The building is state of the art, less than ten years old, and in a prime location. ▪ We believe the company can crystallize the value of this asset over time. ▪ Management believes it would cost ~2% of the building value annually to rent the space the company requires. ▪ A 6.0% cap rate (which we understand to be the approximate market level for premier Tel Aviv office properties), implies significant value creation in a sale or sale-leaseback transaction. ▪ Using conservative assumptions around rent / sqm and Tel Aviv office cap rates, we believe the building is worth ~500 million ILS, or ~30% of the current enterprise value: 7 Source: company presentations, CBRE Tel Aviv Market Survey (Q320). Thesis Point #4: Unusual Pre-IPO Arrangement another “Hidden Asset” ▪ As part of the TASE privatization, pre-demutualization shareholders received shares in the new company that entitled them to a maximum of 508 ILs per share in value upon a sale, with the proceeds in excess of that cap going to TASE. ▪ In H2-19, the banks sold a bit over 10% of their shares at ~1,000 ILs on average. ▪ This resulted in proceeds to the banks of ~14.3 million ILS and proceeds to TASE of ~13.8 million ILS. ▪ Currently these shareholders own ~19.5 million shares (~19% of shares outstanding). ▪ If all these shares were sold at the current price, TASE would receive more than ILS 222 million of net proceeds. ▪ This value is equivalent to ~14% of the current enterprise value. ▪ On February 10, 2021, TASE announced that its board of directors is exploring a structure that enables the buyback and allotment of shares to pre-IPO shareholders with the goal of incentivizing them to sell their “Arrangement Shares.” While discussions have broken off for the time being, it is encouraging that management and the board are exploring ways to crystallize value and increase liquidity. 8 TASE IT - Pre-Restructuring IPO Proceeds Shares Held by Pre-Restructuring Shareholders (at 12/31/2019) Maximum Value per Share to Pre-Restructuring Shareholders Total Proceeds to Pre-Restructuring Shareholders Current TASE IT Share Price Maximum Value per Share to Pre-Restructuring Shareholders Value per Share to TASE (at current share price) Shares Held by Pre-Restructuring Shareholders (at 12/31/2019) 19.5 5.1 ILS 99.1 16.8 5.1 11.7 19.5 Source: company filings and presentations. Total Proceeds to TASE IT (at current share price) ILS 228.2 % of Current Enterprise Value 14% Extremely Attractive Pro Forma Valuation ▪ Multiple sources of current and future value have the impact of reducing our effective purchase price to a low single digit multiple of estimated 2026 EBITDA. These include: ▪ Current cash on the balance sheet; ▪ Future free cash flow generation; ▪ Net proceeds from share sales by pre-restructuring shareholders; ▪ Monetization of headquarters building. ▪ We believe that management could add further value through share buybacks or M&A, but we don’t give them explicit credit for that in this analysis. TASE’s global exchange peers currently trade at mid-teens enterprise value / EBITDA multiples (see Appendix II) Source: company filings and presentations. 9 Extremely Attractive Long-Term Compounding Potential ▪ We believe the combination of accelerating revenue growth, margin expansion and several other levers for value creation can combine to drive intrinsic value growth of 35%+ annually. ▪ Should management allocate the ample firepower it will have at its disposal towards value-creating M&A or accelerated share repurchases, we believe upside can exceed 40% annually. ▪ While we’re not underwriting a takeout, we believe TASE is a logical acquisition candidate for a larger global exchange. Historically, such transactions have occurred at sizable premiums due to significant synergy potential. Framing the Base Case Return Opportunity (amounts in millions of ILS or ILs per share, unless otherwise specified) Core Business: Estimated 2026 EPS Exit Multiple Core Business Value per Share at Year-End 2025 Additional Sources of Estimated Value: Net Cash per Share at Year-End 2025 Cumulative Dividends Owned Real Estate Value (net of taxes) Pre-IPO Shareholder Sale Proceeds to TASE Total Additional Sources of Value 1.85 26.0x 4,814 Total Per Value Share 434 407 260 244 494 463 228 214 1,416 1,328 10 Total Value at Year-End 2025 Current Price % IRR 6,142 1,678 36% Source: company filings and presentations. Risk Factors ▪ Potentially adverse regulation. ▪ Given TASE’s relatively recent privatization, the regulatory environment in Israel is not yet well defined, which can create scope for surprises. ▪ All indications thus far are that Anat Guetta, Chairwoman of the Israeli Securities Authority, is pro-market and has goals of increasing capital markets participation and opening the Israeli market to foreign investors and other market participants. ▪ Geopolitical risk. ▪ Particularly in the Middle East, this can be difficult to handicap. ▪ Timeliness of management execution. ▪ The pace of revenue growth and margin expansion could take longer than anticipated. ▪ Limited liquidity in TASE common stock. ▪ The company’s common stock has relatively low daily trading activity, which could limit our ability to purchase and sell shares easily and may increase short-term volatility in the stock price. ▪ We believe that liquidity will likely improve over time as TASE moves past its demutualization and relatively recent IPO and develops a track record with investors, but this could take longer than anticipated or not materialize at all. 11 Appendix II – Comparable Company Analysis 13 Capitalization Valuation Profitability TASE IT Comps Company Tel Aviv Stock Exchange Global Exchange Peers B3 SA - Brasil Bolsa Balcao ASX Ltd Cboe Global Markets Inc Bolsa Mexicana de Valores SAB de CV CME Group Inc Deutsche Boerse AG TMX Group Ltd Euronext NV Nasdaq Inc Average Median Market Cap 533 13,624 11,364 12,975 1,117 71,368 31,554 5,898 12,324 32,545 21,419 12,975 Enterprise Value 429 11,533 7,509 13,851 985 74,258 35,792 6,429 14,925 38,072 22,595 13,851 EV / Revenue EV / EBITDA P/E Ratio Dividend Yield 1.08% 1 23% 3 97% 1 58% 5 19% 1 81% 2 09% 2 30% 1 48% 1 11% 2.31% 1.81% EBITDA Margin Growth Proj'd Cur Yr+1 Growth Revenue EBITDA EPS Ticker TASE IT B3SA3 BZ ASX AU CBOE BOLSAA MM CME DB1 GY X CN ENX FP NDAQ Price 1,678.00 12 22 80 48 121 69 38 91 198 72 143 75 132 45 99 60 194 64 Cur Yr 4.2x 68x 10 4x 96x 51x 15 4x 89x 83x 10 1x 11 2x 9.5x 9.6x Cur Yr+1 3.7x 64x 99x 93x 48x 14 4x 83x 79x 87x 10 7x 8.9x 8.7x Cur Yr 13.4x 84x 14 2x 14 8x 85x 23 4x 15 5x 13 7x 17 0x 20 2x 15.1x 14.8x Cur Yr+1 10.9x 83x 13 6x 14 6x 78x 21 3x 14 3x 13 3x 14 2x 19 6x 14.1x 14.2x Cur Yr 39.6x 14 6x 31 4x 21 5x 15 3x 29 9x 22 0x 18 8x 19 4x 26 4x 22.1x 21.5x Cur Yr+1 31.3x 13 8x 30 2x 20 8x 13 9x 27 2x 20 2x 18 5x 18 4x 25 3x 20.9x 20.2x Cur Yr 31.6% Cur Yr+1 33.6% 15.0% 22.3% 26.8% 80 7% 72 9% 64 7% 60 0% 66 0% 57 5% 60 7% 59 3% 55 4% 78 1% 72 9% 63 6% 61 0% 67 8% 58 2% 59 3% 61 2% 54 7% 54% 49% 30% 66% 69% 72% 48% 16 1% 4 3% 20% 50% 12% 85% 97% 85% 24% 19 8% 30% 57% 40% 30% 98% 10 2% 89% 15% 55% 41% 64.1% 60.7% 64.1% 61.2% 6.6% 5.4% 6.7% 5.8% 5.0% 5.5% Despite faster revenue growth, significant margin upside, and substantial “hidden” assets, TASE trades in-line with its global exchange peers on an EV/EBITDA basis Note: all market cap and enterprise values shown in U.S. dollars. Valuation metrics are based on consensus estimates from Bloomberg. Source: company filings and presentations.

Why don't you go long PM?

I disagree. It is not growing in the UK in nominal terms despite double digit inflation, competition is intensifying in the US, the company keeps overpromising and overdelivering. How much more room to grow in the US when you can find its products in Costco on Maui?

I would buy Diageo, Campari, Heineken Holdings, Safran, Tel Aviv Stock exchange (Israel, not Europe.) I own but probably would not add here: Dior, L'Oreal.

A lot of European and non-US stocks are very cheap. A number of excellent businesses priced at low multiples.

What makes you think that Soviet soldiers wanted to fight in Finland? You underestimate the power of propaganda. As for being poorly trained and equipped, that can change. @james22, Russian population is/was more than 3.3x Ukraine's, and millions of Ukrainians have fled. Russia also has apparently access to mercenaries. There was an article in Jerusalem Post yesterday claiming that Russia is aggressively recruiting in Lebanon and Syria - including people with experience in fighting Syrian civil war. I hope that you two are right but...

Tax credits I believe, $1bn worth.

My biggest worry, and the one I have had since Russian initial attacks failed, is that in the long run, Russia holds massive advantage. The question is how can it be neutralized or Russia induced to end the war. Russian incompetence will eventually end - Finnish war and WWII are good examples.

@dealraker, have you ever looked at Verisk?