Dinar

I cut my position by roughly 80% post Q1 results in February, and I sold the rest today. I just don't think the company is analyzable today, and if we go into recession it can be a zero.

Why? ty

I would like to know is where those losses on equity investments came from. It seems that aside from profit on the swap, return on the equity portfolio was not lousy.

Buy a farm with a supply of water, learn how to raise animals and fruits & vegetables, source of energy - ideally hydro and solar (both) and far away from civilization yet close enough so you can get it from your house.

Actually, I think 25-30 year TIPS with 2.4-2.5% real yield are a no-brainer here for non-taxable and tax-deferred accounts, assuming inflation will get measured properly.

John, I met with an acquaintance of mine yesterday, he is a retired hedge fund manager who had an incredible track record for many years. As many other very wealthy people who made their fortunes in 1980-2010 period, he is very bearish in general given the tremendous US budget deficit. He feels that Norwegian savings banks give him an investment that is extremely low risk (loans are mostly to Norwegian consumers who are in very good shape, and will be bailed out by Norwegian sovereign wealth fund), additional quirks (40% ownership by Norwegian foundations) further lowers credit risk, trade at 10x p/e with 12-13% ROE, 5%+ dividend yields, and possibly appreciating currency vs USD. So call it a 10% return in NOK and more in USD. Saw I was curious if anybody had looked at these things. He did not mention any specific names, and I have not looked into these things yet.

Has anyone looked at them?

@thepupil just make sure that you can deduct margin interest on your tax return. I got hit with that last year, got the deduction on the federal level but did not get on the state level. Painful in a place like NYC

I disagree with you. There are no switching costs, and tremendous customer concentration with customers incentivized to switch.

If you read the article, you will realize that the numbers are cooked, they are simply NOT correct. a) The figures are adjusted for inflation, however not properly. If the money for arms purchases was granted in 1960, but not spent until 1970, there is no adjustment for the fact that 1970 dollar bought far less than 1960 dollar. So when the article translates 1960 dollar into 2021 dollar, it does not differentiate between the 1960 aid spent in 1960 and in 1970. So methodology is fatally flawed. b) The chart does NOT support the $260 bn figure, more like half that.

Dude, I generally agree with you, but your numbers cannot be correct. How do you figure that Israel received $250bn since its founding. From which governments?

I am with you. I wanted to do this during the world cup in 2018, but my wife would not let me (we had a 2 year old and she was pregnant - she could not go, while she thought I'd come back with a girlfriend from there...) The country in incredibly beautiful both nature wise and architecture wise, while we are on the subject of regrets, I'd add Kiev, Palmyra & Damascus. I cannot wait for regime change in Iran - I would love to visit Isfahan, Shiraz, Persepolis, et all.

@MMM20, Look I own the stock, and I give Prem credit for the correct calls on the bond market, the building of the insurance business, and investments in India. If Prem is comfortable with venture capital - Digit, Tyke/Davos, etc.., then he is certainly comfortable with GARPY names or should be.

And they should be, however what is then the appropriate benchmark? In other words, how do you judge the performance of the portfolio?

O'k, wise guy, what has been the return on the equity & quasi equity portfolio over the past 5, 10, and 20 years and how does that compare with the S&P? Then adjust for the fact that Shawkei, Tyku/Davos Brands and Eurobank where way riskier investments than the S&P 500, and that Fairfax should have earned liquidity and risk premiums above the S&P.

Leverage in a bull market, coupled with a good insurance business.

I think the big risks are the northeast wind that Prem referred to (what is that by the way?), general major catastrophe - say massive earthquake in NY, 5-10% annual inflation that causes reserves to be inadequate, and lousy performance on the investment side. While everyone is cheering for Prem, I remain a skeptic on the investment side. (Tyku/Davos Brands, Shawkei, BDT, Blackberry - none of these were any good, and Eurobank was not exactly a home run.) Their equity and quasi-equity - BDT has massively underperformed S&P while taking much greater risk - Shawkei is clearly quite levered, so is Eurobank, and Tyku/Davos from what I heard, could be a mistake, was never profitable, and without a greater fool - Diageo could have been a zero.

I would make sure that this is not a PFIC for US tax purposes, if it is, you will probably bitterly regret getting involved.

No Clipper for you?

I don't know what Iran wanted or wants, but according to his obituary published by the Iranian press, the Iranian general who was killed planned the October 7th massacre. So if that is true, it is clear that Iran wanted a war with Israel or at least was fine with it.

You stated that Israelies are occupiers, and therefore they can be killed and raped with impunity. Using your logic, anybody in North America who is not 100% descendant of Indians should be murdered since they are all occupiers. Also, 100% of Turks must killed as well since they are on Greek and Armenian land. So do you support killing all Turks in Turkey and all 100% non American Indians in North America? If not, why do you support killing Jews but not other "occupiers"?

Israel is not the occupier, Jews have lived in Israel, Gaza, West Bank (Judea and Samaria) for three thousand years continuosly. Arabs came in 1600 years later. Do you also believe that Armenians and Greeks have the right to rape and murder every Turk in Turkey since Turks murdered two million of them in the 1910s-1920s and kicked the rest out? If you live in North America, or Australia, do you believe that Indians/Aborigines have the right to murder you in cold blood? If not, why not?

Since members of Hamas are included in that death toll, according to you they are clearly innocent. We get it. Hamas should be allowed to kill Israelis and Israelis are supposed to do nothing in response and cannot be allowed to defend themselves.

You are right, also Assyrians for that matter. Agree regarding Netanyahu and Ben Gvir.

I am probably mistaken, however if all Iran does is fire dozens of missiles and drones, then that's the least that one could have expected.