lnofeisone

In today's conflict, two equally equipped peers will have difficulty moving the battle lines. This is what we are witnessing from Ukraine/Russia conflict. I think that's going to be the way forward. The oil refinery fiasco in Syria was the US airforce and precision artilerry having a field day with ground forces with no air or anti-air support. Russia and Wagner have done a decent job adjusting in the Ukraine/Russian conflict to neutralize HIMARS and take advantage of Ukraine's shorting of anti-air and unleashing the helicopters.

The margin comment is 100% spot on. The beauty of warrants/options is that warrants tend to be overpriced when they are OTM and underpriced when deep ITM when compared to options. There is also a tax play that can be employed if you are willing to anchor around warrants and sell options around it.

This isn't an argument that will make us money but for historical context: Europe did an amazing work bringing in LNG import facilities online however, Russia cut supplies by about 60% in June and stopped really providing gas around Sept of 2022 (due to "maintenance"). They basically filled storage while EU was bringing up supply capacity online with a bunch of FSRUs going up late summer, early fall. Absent Russian gas and mild weather, EU would not have enough time to pump out all the tankers to fill the storage sufficiently and keep up with an average cold winter. For example, EU uses up roughly 40 bcm/month during winter but their LNG import capacity is roughly 15 bcm/month. I look at this as two different EU regimes - pre-war and post-war. Pre-war - stable supply, generally stable price Post-war - generally stable supply, wild price swings On the second point, Europe today is looking to import more LNG than China or Japan (two largest Asian consumers). They are coming in and basically aiming for a 20% of the total LNG market. The price dislocations here are going to be wild. If Russian supplies don't come back to EU, this winter is going to be very telling and the price-action for LNG in the spring/summer will be a good primer going forward.

Europe got bailed out by warm (record-setting) weather in Europe and Asia. Couple that with energy-saving measures, and they ended up with a glut. It did force them to replace the supply. I would prefer prices to stay in the range of here to + 25% (so figure crude around $90). Low prices will result in WFT falling off by Dec 31 2023 in most places. I also hope certain companies with European exposure (looking at your VET) got more thoughtful about how they approach hedging (specifically, what jurisdiction).

I think it's a bit early for consulting companies to benefit. All are heavily investing in AI talent and overpaying for scarce talent. Right now, all major consulting companies are taking heavy losses on the AI game and trying to feel out the right dance partners. I also think AI will rock consulting world. Most consulting companies relied on cheap lower-end talent to make up the margins on higher-cost talent. Recent AI developments heavily tilt to high-cost talent where it's almost impossible to get profitable on the "people" side of the business. At best, AI can be used as an entry for bigger engagements but that game is mature where it no longer resembles "make the market" and looks more like "take the market." That's a game of margins. In parallel, a lot of companies go straight to MSFT and GOOGL, where the backlog is months out.

Bought SNOW puts. Databricks has a more complete product and is out in the market hustling and beating SNOW out on sales. I suspect this will start showing up in the SNOW renewals.

MSGE. Love sell-offs like this one.

KA-the 52 can and mostly shoots guided munitions including Vikhr which is laser-guided. The problem they face is mostly having to hover for up to a minute because they are so far out and the missile needs to ride the beam to target.

You've called a lot of things in Ukraine spot on. I'm curious to know what your thoughts are on the Russian deployment of helicopters to take out Ukrainian armor formations. It made sense for Russia to bench these on the offense after they lost a bunch but now this looks looks like a perfect setup for KA52s. They seem to be sitting 10kms out so they can't be hit with MANPADs and long-range AA is just too far.

This is the most apt way to put it. My FRC prefs are just that, 0. It was a tiny position, less than 25 bps. A good reminder and a lesson of what will happen to some of these bank prefs.

TFC was proactive 2 or 3 months back. They called me and offered up various CD deals, etc. I talked to the banker there and it was a high priority. I think they were smart enough to up their deposits and lock some in.

Reloaded VTS and added across all banks that contributed the $30B to FRC. Bought HQI.

If you buy on the last day of the month - you get full month credit. If you sell on the first day of the month - you'll get full month credit. So really, you can time it so you only lose 1 month of interest.

Just a friendly reminder that the ibonds accrue interest on the first of the month so selling on the first day of the month will get you the same amount as selling on any other day of the month. (the other quirk is that the bonds will credit you for the whole month even if you buy on the last day of the month).

I have a lot of thoughts here that I'll lay out later but two things I would note: 1) anytime you buy/sell options, go to your broker's tax page and make sure they are tagging your positions as single tax lots. I'll explain more on that later. 2) If you are holding LEAPs and you hold them over 12 months, your gains get treated as long term. So here is a scenario: 1) You buy a leap (say a call) or a warrant - Option_1 AND hold it for 12 months + 1 day -> you get long term tax rates 2) Underlying appreciates 3) You sell a call at a higher strike price than Option_1 -> this one will always be taxed at short term rate So here is the trade that I've been milking for the last year: 1) I have a CVE Warrant position which I bought when CVE was around $12 2) CVE and warrants appreciated 2) I've been selling CVE $22 calls anytime CVE touched $19.5 If my CVE $22 calls expire worthless, great that's my gain and I pay ST tax. If my CVE $22 calls go against me, I take the loss on the $22 calls which is ST which I can write off immediately (this is the reason why I keep all option tax lots separate. if you don't, you end up creating what's known as a straddle (not the options kind but the IRS definition kind) which prevents you from taking short term losses until you close out the long position). You can also sell the warrants to match the losses you've taken on the $22 calls and you end up with LT tax on the warrants, ST tax on loss for the calls. When trading options, you can inadvertently create position you don't intend to. For example: 1) I bought CVE at $12 2) CVE went to $19 3) I bought $15 put to protect gains 4) Put expired worthless You can't take the loss on the put UNTIL you sell the CVE position because you created a straddle and you have a leg with gains that you have to close out. IRS Section 550 does an OK job explaining a lot of this but they really need to update it to reflect the reality of things like publicly traded warrants, access to LEAPs by hoi poloi, etc.

In theory, yes. In reality, it's more nuanced. SPR facilities (4 of them) are located in TX and LA. USG would need to contract out the oil (getting the right quality) + actual transport. Trading mechanisms are also nuanced.

I followed ZH during gfc. I found their info on someone blowing up somewhat accurate. All the political stuff, I just skipped.

Picked up some 15 VET calls expiring in April. Corrib news is expected today/tomorrow and I think we might just get a pop but VET has been very disappointing otherwise.

bought back FRC preferred for a quick trade.

We had dinner with our realtor and he said this. The condo market is absolutely dead in the DC area. Harsh rental rules (no renting allowed) are partially to blame. He also said anything in the $1.2-$2M range consistently gets 5-6 bids.

Sold enough FRC preferred to recover my cost basis on the morning pop. Will let the rest ride out.

Not going to lie, I thought they would want to keep it rangebound. Not to steer this into the political spectrum but Biden's admin has been loud on liberal agenda but moderate on agenda plans. I was wrong. However, I do believe that supply/demand will keep oil in $70-$90 range with the occasional over/under.

I'm debating if selling 10 puts here makes sense. They could just be bought out by the parent. Bought FNF, JXN, DB and FRC preferred lotto ticket.

Bought some KNOP.

Go to NerdWallet and you'll find some banks paying 4.25% on savings accounts. I know of at least 1 credit union in the pacific northwest offering 7% up to 5k in checking and 3% in savings.