lnofeisone

I agree with @Marco Van Basten. Selling puts means you are leveraged up and require a decent amount of risk management. Nothing wrong with the setup and it helps if you are willing to own the stock. Otherwise, this would keep me up at night.

LQDA - 20% EW - 15% CPNG - 10% BNTX - 10% CNC/CI/HUM basket - 10% CPT/MAA/JOE basket - 10% (mostly JOE options. Selling puts around 50 and selling calls around 60 proved to be a good printer this year again) V - 5% RTO - 5% MSCI - 5% VG - 3% RYAN - 3% and some small potato LEAPS. Finally parted ways with VET and AOS taking large losses - 30%+; which means if you get in now you will probably make $. I had a lot of trades that just weirdly worked out this year while holding less than a year - GOOG, PLTR, RKLB and of course LQDA which I continue to hold . Up roughly 35% YTD.

Does this mean that GE/Safran aren't listening to their customer, e.g., Boeing and are pushing through with the open-rotor?

This is my thesis anyway. I am waiting to start shorting it. Options are expensive either way as I'm not the only one thinking this way.

Hyperspeculative: LQDA (I have roughly 10% of my combined portfolios here but it's now all house money). Business recovery plays ZTS Stock recovery plays CSU CPNG RYAN PYPL CROX NTDOY I own all of these though shares, sold puts, calls.

Too soon on PLTR, IMO. They are still closing ridiculous sales like their no-bid USDA deal valued at $300M and few others on the verge of closing (ICE, etc.) I think 2026 will have them close a lot of those deals and next admin will be looking very closely at them.

Somewhat dated news but ManTech (does a lot of defense contracting like CACI) bought Elder to beef up their AI. Elder is a recognized leader but I suspect they struggled to scale from "small" to medium/large. ManTech is owned by a PE shop.

I stumbled upon TZROP recently. Do you have more info? The two things that stood out to me so far were: 1) you have to buy it on tzero platform 2) the board can declare 10% of revenue as dividend. I did sign up for t0 but the market they show was limited (4 securities). I couldn't wrap my head around the business model here.

Bought back my shorted UNG calls. All of Hannukkah shopping is paid for.

You can connect perplexity to your google docs (or any google service like calendar) through what they call File Connections or use n8n or Zapier. You can extend perplexity to also connect to other products concurrently - e.g., connect to msft OneDrive. Gemini can't do that out of the box and requires an external thing like n8n.

You can use Gemini in Perplexity (I do this). I see results much better than straight Gemini without any modifications. I can course correct Gemini to give similar results.

Starter in BNTX.

I've had a client recently who asked for Cyber insurance and was upfront that "specialist insurer" isn't something they are willing to stomach.

On the lower end (think car insurance, home insurance) sure. On the higher end, where I have $100,000 to $1,000,0000s riding, I am not going to trust AI. We are not there yet.

selling some UNG calls. simply numbers game. this thing rallies and then everyone remembers that it's trash.

Thanks both. I'll watch the video. I also have some GEV (through wife's accounts). I do think Canadian gas is going to be a big theme 2028-2029 and positioning now makes sense. I just need to get over the VET debacle mentally as it hasn't played out as I hoped.

What equities are holding for this play? I've have (evershrinking) VET and PEYUF. VET accumulated an insane amount of gas acreage.

I have a bunch of CROX LEAPS. I'm waiting for $85 to start selling $100 shorter duration.

Bought BRO, RYAN, Fairfax, CSU, another slug of LQDA 2027 vertical, and bought back RTO I sold on the earnings pop.

B shares are more valuable, but they aren't publicly traded. The true earnings are understated because of the TRA.

This is correct and it's rooted in the economics. In Uzbekistan, nurses make less than teachers so while nursing is dominated by women, it is not the preferred job. In the US, if someone comes when they are older, the path to take is a home attendant. Retraining to become a full RN is a challenging path, with a high language barrier (need to know English and track the medical field).

This is correct. There is one extra step. The company (A class shareholders) will pay roughly 0.85*55 for the "privilege" of writing off $55. Basically, buying shares in RYAN, you have to assume the TRA is a real cash liability.

This is a mistake aggregators make. If you take the EPS number, it includes all share classes.

Ryan has roughly 128M class A shares and 136M class B shares. Class B shares are not publicly traded. There is some small amount relative to total shares of class C shares that become class A after vesting. There are a lot of nuances and B holders have advantages - 10 votes per share vs 1 for A; conversion from B to A triggers a tax event; B holders get TRAs. All earnings RYAN reports takes into account all shares (though you need to be careful what aggregator you use for data because at least one incorrectly listed 128M as total share count inflating earnings). From this perspective the Up-C means nothing. Tax Receivable Agreement - basically for every $1 RYAN saves on Taxes, original owners (B holders) will get $0.85. In aggregate, Ryan has around $450M or so of TRA liability. That means over the next X years they will be paying out that much to the original holders (those who today hold class B shares).

My PLTR play is to wait until mid-term elections and (so 2026), and then look for 3-year out way OTM puts and scale into those via calendars. The narrative is simple. With this administration just about every Gov't agency is buying PLTR. Sometimes they do it to get access to other things but PLTR still gets paid. So their sales will keep going up. New administration will clean the slate and PLTR will be one of the first things to go because its software isn't all that good, their sales people are a-holes, and their engineers aren't as helpful as those of other vendors. They are also deeply tied with the current admin. Everyone is expecting PLTR to implode, and option pricing (2028 $100 is trading for $20) reflects that. Calendars help you manage your IV cost here and if you are wrong, you aren't out of too much capital.