lnofeisone

@TwoCitiesCapital - I agree with the assessment you heard with the assumption that shortage becomes apparent if the US gets a cold winter. Around June, the US was at five year low on gas stockpiles. After the June fire, stockpiles of nat gas in the US started to rise. Not as fast as in previous years, but still rising. We are still well below the 5-year average but trending up from a 5-year low. Freeport will likely lower European prices and raise US prices a bit. If the US gets warm winter weather, we can comfortably export to Europe without too big of a price increase. In either case, I expected European prices to stay elevated but not as high as where they are now (for TTF or NBP). A shrewd operator (looking at you VET) should be hedging 2+ years out and just printing $.

I'm glued to European weather models and generally tracking US weather and what we are seeing is pointing to a cold winter in Europe (La Nina with hurricanes in the US). It also looks like there won't be as much wind either. Overall, Europe is in a precarious position, and the first cold snap will show a lot. Few positives: -US is headed for warmer than average winter -Asia is looking to have average to above-average warm winter So while Europe may have cold weather, the price of natural gas will likely stay where it is now or probably be a bit lower. I think Europe will be fine sourcing nat gas without too much competition. Freeport is going back online in December as well.

I finally got around to reading this one. Overall, very weak. Maybe 4/10. The whole thing can be summarized as "buy dislocated tech companies that show consistent revenue growth of 20% or more." The author tries to counterbalance value types that frequent this board, suggesting buying revenue growth over earnings. Incidentally, the publication of this book coincided with the market top. Ooops.

It's fake but it's very much what everyone is thinking.

bought a full position of ATUS and SAVE.

Agreed. WLK is one of my favorites (along with OLN). I'll consider getting a HELOC to buy those two if they go 50% below today's price. Wishful thinking, I know.

I don't have a lot of respect for Tlaib but in this case I think she was just reading from her second screen without doing much thinking. @Spekulatius - I agree that superspikes causes recession every time and this one will be no different. Europe is going to get/getting clobbered. The case for energy companies now is energy companies have near pristine balance sheets, low fixed dividends, and most have their projections around oil being $60 and nat gas $5.

Adding across the board with biggest VET, SNOW, GOOGL, JOE, HQI, CASH.

Looks like option 1 that @shhughes1116 provided is up next. Putin is calling for partial mobilization of conscripts. Conscripts can't serve in non-Russian territories so looks like the next play Putin is going with is referendums to proclaim legitimacy of the three regions in eastern Ukraine and pouring 300k troops on top of what's there now. Looks Putin and Shoigu by extension are carefully maneuvering this one. Lots of incentives for the 300k to show up (regular army benefits, etc.). They are calling up logistics experts and experienced troops first and actually giving them more than a week of training. Regular army contracts are extended "for as long as conscripts are in service." With cold a month away, this will very likely be "hold the line" exercise with opportunistic strikes on both sides.

There is not. You have to transfer to a brokerage.

Without knowing what you are looking at, it seems like you are trying to model an edge case. My guess is that you are modeling 2024 Jan call and pricing the underlying at $95 for July 2023. The extra value comes from the intrinsic volatility and time components of the option price. However, the calculator doesn't know that you selected an edge case and the stock will never rise past $95 (unless you think MSFT will raise its bid). If this deal closes in July 2023 for $95 and you paid $0.74 for 95 Jan 2024s, you will lose $0.74. If the deal close in Jan 2024 for $95 and you paid $0.74 for 95 Jan 2024s, you will lose $0.74.

If you do see anything, please post. Thanks in advance.

So this is what I'm really trying to understand. Will Germany and any other non-eastern European country allow for new infrastructure to be built to support this? Seems like the only new infra that's being built is the LNG terminals. They will also be taking down 12% of total capacity down for 6 months or so.

I'm still trying to digest this move by Germany. For example, Schewdt is directly connected to Russian "Friendship" pipeline and configured for that oil. How is Germany expecting to operate these assets and get oil from Russia? Separately, I think, European energy companies are now put on notice. Pull back in production and risk being nationalized. I think most will comply and produce at least what they are producing now and pay the solidarity tax.

I currently share this opinion as well. I think Europe is ready for an average winter. I don't think they'll get to 100% of their storage capacity but it will be offset by decline in use by the industrial base. The part that will be most painful is going to the price shocks but far from economic collapse.

@Spekulatius - there are now predictions of 3rd year of Le Nina which is rare. Le Nina mostly impacts the US, Asia/Australia and to a lesser degree Europe. When it does impact Europe, more often than not it hits it with cold weather. So basically, cold all around. https://apnews.com/article/un-weather-la-nina-predictions-d81072d4b78112256e9807ba4178ae1c

Half position in VRRM and some Mar 25 VET calls.

Even if the war stops tomorrow, I can't see Putin/Europe normalize relationships so fast that sanctions are lifted and gas flow is restored. It will take time. Weeks, months, maybe? As far as the weather, just about the whole planet is expected to have a cold winter. You only need cold weather in Europe or Asia and gas prices will stay high. It makes 0 difference if US and Canadian E&Ps drill more. There is no LNG capacity to be had anywhere. Maybe once Freeport goes back online and then Europe gets roughly 2.5% of their LNG fill. Unfortunately, Europe is staring at a real crisis here. I'm hoping politicians use the real crisis as a shield to allow for somewhat more market-friendly policies (e.g., let Gronnigen field in Netherlands produce through 2030) at least until other energy alternatives are figured out.

I think my glimmer of hope will be when the labor market takes a dive and stay there for a short bit. Currently, the market is still extremely strong. We've had few folks hired away just few weeks ago and these individuals had numerous performance issues with us. My firm has 2 large office (20+ floor) buildings in the DC region. One is known as the densest office for our firm in the world. They are both employee-light - maybe 20% of what it used to be. My teams go in 1x every 2 weeks and I think they will just leave if I ask for more. Still early, IMO.

I got Dec 25s@$5.70 and currently in process of getting Mar 25s. I got few Mar 25s @$6.90 but lowered the price a bit.

Reloaded on some VET calls. Love how it trades with oil news but it's a nat gas company.

Thanks for the names. I'll look into them. Any stories here?

Can you share any names in the E&P space? I spent a little time looking at the names but shelved it as I'm too heavy in energy as is. Few that I was looking at were EnBW in Germany and CEZ in Czech republic and Mol Magyar in Hungary. My thinking Eastern European cos are probably better from regulatory perspective (though VET is already doing some of this) but haven't fully developed my thinking here.

Without disclosing the company, there are now efforts underway to incorporate image processing into pricing algorithms. Things like fixer-uppers, remodeled kitchen, etc. are now being detected with fairly consistent accuracy and recall. You can even get reasonably good numbers guessing what brand cabinetry the house has (Wellborn vs. Ikea, for example). Obviously, things like mold and termites are still detected by physical inspection only.

Sold about 25% of my VET exposure. It is still around 20% of my total portfolio.