lnofeisone

I have a core VTS position and been trading around it. The volatility is insane.

bought IAT and added to WFC.

No news on the asset cap. CFPB came out hot and spicy against WFC saying at any given time 1/3 of the US population is at risk of WFC's shenanigans and they are a habitual recidivist (language was that strong) of bad behavior. I think asset cap is here to stay with us for at least another year or two.

BAC, TFC Calls

This is my plan. Buy some IAT as this saga unfolds and if we go lower, start picking up LEAPs in the likes of PNC, TFC, BAC.

Bought a full position of SNCAF. The thread is great and the market is asleep at the wheel. Bought LSXMK and MEGEF starters.

If you sell the losing leg, you can't use that loss to offset anything until you close all legs of your trade. It was updated that way for the very reason you called out (and traders used to do just that). Timing and option pricing (atm, itm, otm,) nuances can matter in some cases but doesn't look like it in this case. For example, married put implies you buy the atm put the same day you buy the stock and if you lose $ on the put, you have to add the cost of the put to the cost basis of your stock. In other words, can't take capital loss on the put. There is lots to keep track off and you can designate all the tax lot assignent with your broker as you trade but most just defer to defaults.

@RedLion is selling calls against his existing warrants. IRS treats warrants as options, so he is creating straddles. Straddles aren't taxed at short-term gains. To add to this is that he is selling LEAPs that are offsetting his warrants. If he holds those LEAPs and his warrants until June 2024, he will qualify for long-term capital gains tax. The trick for both is to make sure that number of sold calls doesn't exceed the number of warrants/100. Pug 550 - section "Short Sales" - https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p550.pdf

Bought OSTK LEAPs and sold OTM calls to capture vega crush. The premiums are very juicy.

This is 100% spot on. When he was at State, Bolton had no problems arguing with anyone but he absolutely knows his stuff. Probably didn't help that he was so argumentative all the time.

I don't expect the call to be exercised (I sold 30 Jan 24 calls). Let's say CVE gets to 30 and calls are exercised, TD will borrow and assign the shares at $30/share, which will net out to be me being short CVE at 30. Since I have the warrants, I could theoretically exercise them and get the shares assigned to me from someone else, netting out to 0. In reality, I'll likely sell the warrants and cover the short because of the tax mismatch. This is no different than buying a vertical bull spread. You always run the risk of someone exercising the leg that you sold if it goes too deep in the money. In this case, I'm using warrants as the long leg and selling options as the short leg. Just a friendly reminder, 100 warrants give you as many shares as 1 call so if you are holding 10,000 warrants, you can only sell 100 calls to create a risk profile of a vertical.

They are treating as a naked call.

Selling CVE calls against my warrants position.

There is a large contingent of west-trained Afghan army that fled to Iran when taliban took over. They are generally pissed at the US. I can see russia tapping into that reservoir and Iran not objecting.

Just wait until Afghans find their way to Ukraine to fight on Russia's side. It will be come full circle and only took 40 years or so.

I do it. It works exceptionally well for a particular narrow class of well-defined problems (e.g., optimization is one where it saved me a few hours). It doesn't work well for AI (statistics, really)-centered problems.

The "Russia will soon exhaust its capabilities" narrative has been going on for almost a year. Here is an article dating back to April of 2022 claiming that Russia is running out of ammo. Yet, here we are eight months later and that's with Ukraine successfully blowing up several large ammo/missile depots. https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1590515/Vladimir-putin-russia-ukraine-invasion-latest-missiles-running-out One that that's interesting is that Russia is exhausting its soviet stockpiles of old, low-tech missiles, tanks, and vehicles. 10 years out, Russia will likely be a prominent buyer/manufacturer of weapons to refresh its arsenal.

I, too, thought that Europe would have a more challenging time this winter. The odds were indeed in Russia's favor. As far as Russia's gas being stranded, there is a fair amount of Russian gas in Europe still. Russia is still importing LNG to France, the Netherlands, etc. (the UK is the only country that no longer takes Russian LNG).

I view it as a positive for the European energy operators. Industry can adjust. Europe won't go into total industrial collapse. They'll work off their storage. Prices will stay elevated to make a profit but not so high that they will bump into WFT and politicians' "rage."

so is it over?

Added to BAM/BN.

thanks for the idea. will look into it a bit more.

I love binary plays (when they work out). Any thoughts on them being liable for FTX and/or fines that might get imposed by the regulators? Just has a feel of dead money for 2+ years.

feels like a binary play no?

-2% USD. Late collapse by VET took off a big % of gains (would be roughly +5% for the year). 2023: 1) Holding O&G 2) Loading up on financials 3) Writing tech puts