lnofeisone

This is going to be my last post to you on this topic. It's obvious that you have very surface level understanding of the industry and I recommend you spend some time understanding its nuances (for example, difference between petroleum and crude oil and how it is accounted for by EIA and others) before opining. For example, we import oil not because we have some magic refining base. Our refining base isn't set up to process the type of oil we extract in the US. This is why we send out our light sweet out and bring in dirty heavy oil. While the US has decoupled from oil, it still didn't decouple from natural gas. Do oil + gas consumption and plot that vs. GDP. Anyway, thanks for your opinion. This isn't a very productive conversation for me so I'm going to excuse myself out.

You are conflating petroleum and crude oil. Crude oil is a subset of petroleum and we are still a net importer of crude oil. So re-read what I wrote with that in mind. Here - https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/imports-and-exports.php "The United States remained a net crude oil importer in 2022, importing about 6.28 million b/d of crude oil and exporting about 3.58 million b/d. Some of the crude oil that the U.S. imports is refined by U.S. refineries into petroleum products—such as gasoline, heating oil, diesel fuel, and jet fuel—that the U.S. later exports. Also, some of imported petroleum may be stored and later exported." Look at your own chart. This shows you petroleum and the chart is a bit wonky too (the previous table that you provided was showing crude oil numbers). If we consume say 20 million barrels per day, but we only produce 19 and we are a net exporter, where does the remaining (1 million + whatever we export) come? This is proprietary industry data, so I'd be surprised if you can find it readily, but let's give this a try. With WTI trading at $70, Vermillion gets $60 or so in netback per BOE from its Australian Wandoo oil field. This is why you get interest in the offshore. Broadly speaking, offshore production is cheaper than onshore. Numbers I am familiar with are $20/BOE for offshore and $30/BOE for onshore for the cost to operate. Overall, the average netback (offshore + onshore) is about $25/BOE. So if Oil trades down from 70 to say 45, drillers, on average, will be at cost. If it trades down to $40, they will be losing $ and they will stop drilling. Of course you can get nuanced and factor in hedges, etc. but if you find a 100% price taker, logically, they need to start shutting in their wells at $45. This is all technical and, in my opinion, irrelevant. I think the 3M BOE that Trump will most come from the LNG exports. We got Plaquemines and Corpus Christi III going online soon, so that will basically give him a win without him doing anything. I doubt his base will do a deep dive to figure out where BOEs came from even if gasoline prices go up. \

This doesn't really answer as to which fracker will be able to step in here and bring 3M barrels of oil into the market. Never mind the fact that US demand for oil exceeds what is being produced. You also need to include natural gas that is currently displacing coal and the US is using more and more of that. My views are: 1) There will be growth in oil and gas output but it will be more organic and it will be dynamically matched to the price (i.e., if oil trades down to $40, we won't have companies just drilling) 2) Any new BOE will be absorbed by the US's growing economy 3) No company will jump on the opportunity to drill, drill, drill without incentives or price guarantees 4) This is a bit under the radar but PE has been moving in across the board into energy sector (O&G, renewables). I don't think the likes of BX will be very pleased with the drilling of BOE at a loss.

Can you name frackers that you think don't have discipline and that will support the +3M of BOE? O&G industry broadly reduced debt by 30%. FCF is prioritized. Rig count is nowhere near 2015 highs. You seemed to be anchored on OXY and while Anadarko purchase wasn't the best, CrownRock story has yet to play out.

This right here is how I view energy will play out. Frackers that can bring 3M barrels of BOE are not going to frack without massive incentives. O&G companies have found a new religion, and investors punish those who don't show discipline swiftly. Also, I think a keyword is being overlooked here: BOE. That doesn't mean it will be oil only. There is gas in that equation. If European gas prices spike, the US can export natural gas.

I think AI will push devs to be more hybrid business/mission + dev. I use AI today and can get so much more coding and coding review done than I have in the past. I can now spend so much more time focusing on dealing with client and understanding what they actually need which, to your point, may not be how they are describing it.

While I love office space and the humor it has, I've been in so many situations where the client doesn't know what they want and the engineers have no clue what was asked and just coded whatever and we were all in the same room. This meme exists for a reason:

I don't agree with this take at all. A lot of white-collar jobs are relationship-based and require that relationship. AI isn't a substitute for that. And I'll still take all the IT jigglers when I have 2AM production issue over AI. That's just a fact of life.

A lot of advances are now being made using hybrid of chatgpt, gemini, whatever + org's native data. The Technical term for this is retrieval augmented generation (RAG). Knowledge graphs are making a very strong come back. I have a few clients who have seen an enormous ROI using this approach in solving problems that were very difficult/expensive in the past.

BAH is very good at competing in the lowest cost technically acceptable (LPTA) types of contracts. CACI has made efforts to invest into its capabilities (agile software factory) so they can show a bit of innovation at competitive costs. I personally would stay away from these names for the next few months. There is a massive shift to push work to small businesses and the entire gov't contracting sector is realigning right now. You can see it by looking at which vehicles are being used for procurements. All the biggies are now hitting up small businesses to build up a rolodex. CACI is no exception.

I agree here. Sold some puts here. If it goes down another 20% i'll load up on LEAPs.

CNC primarily focuses on gov't sponsored healthcare. Their margins are leaner but they know how to operate in this space to get bonuses which is something that all other insurance companies are suing HHS for (CNC is also suing but they didn't get dinged as hard). They are projected to grow top and bottom lines. I don't think the current administration will do anything terribly wild to impact Medicaid/Medicare/Tricare.

Some HUM, ELV, and ERIE.

I added to JOE and CNC and sold some MSGE puts.

This is definitely a pathway this can play out and it'll start hurting bottom lines. I think that will be the time to enter or maybe a bit closer to 2029.

I'm waiting for some sort of turbulent event, like a BK or the winding down of an ETF.

I unloaded HIFS today and rotated into CPNG.

Sold HSY. Lost patience.

The stock trades very stupidly. Sells off good on earnings and then takes time to recover in time for next earnings. For the past few months, I've been selling puts and buying calls monthly. I also have a core position here too and don't mind if I get shares put on me.

sold CPNG puts and bought CPNG calls.

Polymarket platform worked well. I had 4 bets going. I closed 1 around 10pm and moved money out without any issues. Waiting on the remaining bets to close out with UMA algo to see how that will play out.

AP, Fox, and NBC have to call the race to this contract to materialize. Statements like "leading the race" or "likely to win" is not the same as "call the race." So it doesn't make sense for this to be the reason for the odds.

I'll be the tester. I bet on Kamala on Polymarket. 2 decent bottles worth of wine that might turn into 6 just in time for Thanksgiving and New Year's. No other poll is showing her this off. This might also motivate her base to come out and vote. The r/r is there. I'll let you all know if Polymarket fails on their smart contract end of the deal.

This is so mighty impressive. Now is probably the time to take SpaceX public.

nice trade. already worked out