lnofeisone

I bought back my UNG short calls.

I hold the same view. Someone center. I don't care right or left. I detest the democratic "more progressive" platform as much as I detest MAGA. But the country is polarized. I can see democratic voters coming out in droves and going with "anyone but republicans" like they did with "anyone but trump" and we got us Biden.

I can't wait for your reaction and commentary when you see that the cost of running the government will be higher in 2025 than it was in 2024.

This board's entertainment will only increase exponentially if AOC wins the next one. At the rate things are going, that's quickly moving from possibility to probability. It'll be two years before we see Congress change (and I suspect change will occur), and another 2 years before presidential change. I can already see "the Congress is holding back our beloved change agent!" rant from some board members.

true. so far the playbook is to wait for some stupid announcement, let stocks plunge, buy, sell when things get a pause or reverse. options more than a month out are dicey because vol is so high (unless you sell and go for vega crush).

What would your target be? It feels like there are easier shorts but in this environment, who knows.

While I agree with your comment on lack of profit incentive I don't think transmountain is a good example of it. Transmountain was a huge multi year engineering project. Many projects like that don't do well and have costs overruns. Look at voglte 1 and 2 ans then 3 and 4 after. Similar magnitude and similar overruns despite being profit motivated. There are also number of engineering firms that went under or presented great investment opps because they didn't size up large projects correctly and they were profit motivated. There might be some waste in government but the scale is miniscule and is more than offset by those who truly outperform at fraction of private industry cost, e.g., scientists, doctors, lawyers.

I have this take too. I think Elon is a moron on top of being a socially awkward (social retard if you will) that drank his cool aid and got carried away a bit. The nazi-looking solute thing was cringey, but I don't think he meant it that way. He is still a moron and deserves to be taken off every gov't program he is getting funds through (e.g., SpaceX, Neuralink, etc.). Speaking of Elon - he is now backtracking DOGE goals to $150B instead of the $2T he promised us. Most of it comes in contract cuts and is VERY LITTLE by way of fraud. He is delivering barely 10% of what he promised. Incidentally, he cost himself more wealth doing his experiment than he saved the country.

Joke's on you thinking he has cards. He has crayons and everyone sees the colors.

I sold some of the shares i bought last few days for a gain. This looks like a choppy market, so may as well enjoy the volatility.

I generally agree with this take. China has been abusing international goodwill for a very long time. A year or so ago, they were still getting mail subsidies because they were classified as a developing country...all while being the two largest economies in the world. The Chinese are also very good at playing long-term diplomacy. The current approach isn't going to FAFO them. Maybe short term annoyance but that's about it.

that and defense budget is about to pass as is.

MC is the original ticker of Moet & Chandon. They were the OG of the conglomerate. They merged with Hennessy first and then added LV all while keeping the original ticker (hence LVMH as a name).

I 100% agree. I mentioned that in the STNE thread at some point. The dispute mechanism is ubiquitous in the US but if you go to LATAM most sales are pretty much final. And fraud and operational errors are now resolved with MED on PIX.

I own STNE and PIX is obviously a competitor. I think PIX has done such a fantastic job growing the pie. Sure, there will be some challenges with it being tied to Brazilian gov't but the system has helped so many who wouldn't bank otherwise. I true example of how gov't can incubate innovation to help citizens. The next step is spinning this out as a private enterprise but who knows if they know how to do that.

This here is a fantastic take. Victimhood was once the preserve of the social left. The horseshoe theory rears its ugly head, yet again.

You are looking at one puzzle piece - end price for a consumer good. Some businesses buy raw materials, and these tariffs introduce a fair amount of unpredictability. Unpredictability leads to a pause in decision-making, which can then initiate the vicious cycle of layoffs, reduced demand, and so on. This is why this game is very high risk. If other participants don't respond how you expect them to, it can lead to some real bad results.

US is fairly vigilant about this, and most importers don't want to deal with compliance risks from CBP and IRS. Even if you consider a wild example like Nike using the first sale rule, or Converse altering designs slightly to reduce tariffs (tariff engineering is a thing), most companies are not that sophisticated when it comes to tariff engineering. In fact, the IRS and CBP are probably far better equipped (or were anyway) to deal with this change than any private sector participant. There is some public information it if you are interesting. Look up CBP's Automated Commercial Environment (ACE).

It's cost + shipping + importer markup. There are also numerous games available to play. Look up Nike's EU dispute on how they valued the cost. Nike's probably one of the best when it comes to tax and tariff navigation.

Ok. We agree on both points here. Going to be a wild ride for sure.

Damn @cubsfan - you voted more liberal than me. I still think Trump 1.0 and 2.0 are idiots. Yes, he is getting "a lot" done, but so little of it is of any value, and most of it will either be detrimental or reversed. What's worse, when Dems retake the Senate or the House and the executive branch, they will push so hard left. It will be impossible to do any business....like it is right now. The reason will be different, but the outcome will be the same.

We already know that Trump, Musk, Lutnick, and Bessent lack the academic rigor to correctly compute tariffs and consulting support to put them in a logically structured table. Has this trio (Musk - who accomplished very little of his state goal by way of DOGE - is on his way out and will probably lay low for a while) expressed what they are trying to accomplish? Or by them revealing it, they will show their hand, and they can't do it? Be serious, Greg. We are about to experience 15% market losses in 3 days. If this were Biden, you'd be one of the first to proclaim his stupidity and need for transparency. I've read so many of your posts on market ruthlessness in the face of dumb management moves. But now, with markets selling off, your carte blanche-"they got a game plan and they are playing more than 1D chess"- is surprising from someone (you) who reads the room incredibly well.

That's because we didn't really have real recessions. To have a protracted bear market, you need economic contraction. COVID-19 was a sudden shock to supply chains that had previously demonstrated resilience on the demand side. This led to inflation, but supply chain resilience proved effective. 2008 was a more traditional contraction. Given the current administration's perspective on the world, it is creating, if we haven't already, a traditional contraction. If futures hold as they are now, tomorrow we will be in an official bear market, and this one might just stick.

EU doesn't need to target Musk. It's easy to reframe a tactic to be broad and applicable to everyone, but only aiming at one company. It's like putting out a job posting that anyone can apply for, but put some particular experience, so your pool of applicants is just the one person you want. See, it's easy to stay in the lane of values they represent and still be an a**hole in a way that resonates with Musk. That's the only thing Musk understands.

Musk himself was saying that Twitter (at the time) was filled with bots and he shouldn't pay full price for it. Can't have it both ways. And yes, they don't like Musk. Musk entered politics, and that's what you get if you are not liked. Like I said, zero empathy. I also want Europe to go after Tesla's carbon credits, ban Starlink (or favor their home-grown solutions), and put stringent controls on xAI and Neuralink. Musk wants everyone to have a private job and be efficient, so I hope Europe is the first to cut him off from government welfare and help him on his journey to efficiency.