lnofeisone

This worked out rather well. Shell raised the bid to $15.85 so the options are worthless. I also had a decent diagonal that I kept rolling. Again, thanks @thepupil for getting this one on the radar.

Bought some DIS (add), JOE (add), MSGE (add), INTC (starter), and MU (starter).

Owning Energy Transfer is like owning Citibank. Any blow ups or regulatory issues, and you can bet ET is in the middle of it.

I looked at both LCOE and EROEI a while back, mostly because a friend pointed me to a slide from Lazard. LCOE and EROEI are incredibly dependent on what assumptions you choose to make. I also looked at this from the other vector - buying energy from a particular source. Renewables are consistently more expensive at wholesale and retail (without subsidies). Even if you take out Block Island PPA which is a total mess, off shore wind will run you at premium to wholesale anytime during the year. Also, most PPA signed by states have this incredibly favorable pricing towards the producer that is frequently tied to an index. Sometimes I think whoever is signing this on behalf of a state really doesn't understand how bad of a contract this is or they are hell bent on getting renewable. So of LCOE is low and renewable PPAs run so high, you'd think Orstead and others would make bank but that never seems to materialize. Even if you look at the deal that 8 minute energy signed with LA proclaiming lowest solar PPA in history at ~$20/MWh, once you calculate all the other components (e.g., BESS in/out) it comes out to something like $40/MWh with 4 hour of storage only (because, you know, sun is only gone for 4 hours a night). So, not as cheap as nuclear/nat. gas and still lacks reliability.

sold SNOW and some of the more recently acquired VET mostly to free up some cash and can't complain about 15%+ while holding for such short time.

I agree that ESG is something the public only cares about when they can afford to. The challenge for O&G industry is that they are in a very unfriendly administration environment that can do a lot to bring on the pain. As Spek pointed out, Biden can impose tariffs on exports (personally, I'm skeptical of that as we would be pissing off a lot of our neighbors, allies, and areas where we have geopolitical interests). They can also be particularly attentive to maintenance as they are doing with Freeport LNG terminal (again, here, Freeport LNG screwed up majorly and should've done better). I am more than happy to take oil in $100-$110 range, gasoline in low $4s so that's enough to print $ but not enough to hurt the consumer and trigger the administration.

Eh, I hate seeing urinary Olympics like this for public to consume. What O&G industry needs to hammer away is this - we are here to help and here is what we need from the administration. I think the onus is on the industry to show its ESG efforts (carbon capture, whatever but have the administration be a bit friendly) and at least appear friendly. Put this administration in a position of choice and they will do whatever is needed to help them survive elections. As far as companies trading below November, I'm fine with that. I'll keep nibbling away. These companies are close to having pristine balance sheets, massive (albeit reduced with WTI going sub-100) cashflows, buybacks, dividends, ESG trend. I wouldn't want to own this scenario at 10-15x FCF, but at 4x it's a no brainer.

Added a tad to VET and CVE. Bought a slug of ABNB.

I agree with SD, only 2 weeks left for this Q and prices for O&G stayed elevated through this Q. Numbers are going to be bonkers. Debt reductions, dividends, buybacks will be prominent. Exxon is kicking off on 7/29. As far as inflation, I think we will precipitously drop to 3 or 4% and stay there on core. What's going to continue to hold inflation there is what a lot of this board is betting on - housing. The other component that will likely stay elevated is recreation due to pent up demand. Headline inflation will stay elevated until energy food crises have more certainty. I suspect economy will slow down and likely post another quarter of negative GDP after this one (so 3 in total). The consumer is feeling the pain at the pump, on food, etc. Energy story isn't changing and food shortages are persisting. I can see O&G drop because of that but the floor here will be dictated by supply/demand. European gas will play out based on geopolitics. Either way, lots of volatility but O&G companies will continue to make money.

Gold is the softest and most malleable of all metals so chiseling it will be very counterproductive. You could spool it and have increment markets and just cut piece when paying for coffee . This is probably the only absolute advantage that cryptocurrency has over gold is that it is divisible into whatever number you need. But the same thing could be said about any currency. Transporting gold might seem like a big deal but what gets overlooked (or taken for granted) lot of times is that there is a huge amount of infrastructure (think internet, utility, power generation) that is required to support the transport of crypto. Fun fact on gold softness, gold purity in the jewelry world is measured by kt. 24kt is 100% gold, 18kt is 18 gold: 6 other stuff, 14kt is 14 gold: 10 other stuff and so on. Other stuff controls physical properties (e.g., strength, color, etc.) You rarely see 24kt gold rings because they are too soft and can't withstand the daily wear and tear.

I am a long term holder of this that probably should've sold at $150. They are solving a legitimate problem that will only get more complicated with states trying to improve tax compliance. There isn't really any competitors that do what Avalara does. What's not seen is that Avalara can help states to collect taxes and taxpayers by helping devise favorable tax strategies (think multinational corporations with multi-jurisdiction procurements with tax and credit issues). I also really like Xero (XROLF).

Metaverse will be a niche thing and not as big as FB thinks. While we are in digital world, 80% of "AI-centric" companies are trash (especially in the insurance/finance industry) and will be outcompeted by the incumbents.

This is why I have a sliver of TELL (less than 0.5% position). At some point either gov't or another party will give them the $$ they need.

Slightly OT and mostly academic: There are 100+ companies that went into BK over the last few years and are sitting on some serious NOLs. At 120 oil an argument can be made that their tier 2 and 3 assets are profitable. An existing non-BK entity can purchase those companies and try to make an argument that the principal purpose of the acquisition is profit and not tax avoidance. Section 269 of IRC has a big bite but with the right lawyers...

I think this sounds about right. This is gonna get very complicated and between TCJA and CARES act tax updates, O&G companies can milk deductions and not pay tax while earning even more $.

Short answer - yes, and while historically this was deferred to Congress, in the last 10-20 years, the Executive branch reached deep into its powers and has done so without explicit Congressional approval.

Thanks and looks interesting. Feels like they are somewhat ahead of the curve without debt and already doing repurchases in the $7 range. Good floor for sure. They will also have a pile of cash come year end.

Not familiar with this one (and probably shouldn't be given how excessively overweight I am in energy). What's the set up here?

Yes and would say their products are top notch, on their own or when compared to competition (I've worked with Databricks, Redshift, etc.). I am already down $4/share on my purchase but I'm comfortable scaling in as this keep dropping.

SNOW starter.

I've interacted with PLTR products and I was underwhelmed. Their game plan is to entrench themselves and it makes it extra hard to extract them but beyond that, the technical aspects were about average and in some instances behind the tech curve. Their data engineering team is top notch and that shows but I have a hard time seeing it as more than a niche player.

75/80 ATVI Jan 24 calls. Buffet clone.

This spread went from $1.10 to $2.70. I sold half the position and will ride the rest into expiry.

Pen Fed and Truist if you are in the US.

HQI, AIV, SNCAF - the COBF ETF.