thowed

I think where the activism is succeeding is generally where the activists respect the Japanese culture and engage constructively & respectfully. Ideally buy some of the company, turn up to meetings, speak Japanese (or bring a Japanese speaker) and show interest. Then you can suggest changes. And if that doesn't work, then you can get a bit tougher. Anyway, there has certainly been more success recently. Separately, there do seem to be a load of super-cheap, decent quality cos in the Micro, Deep Value space, though no guarantee that they'll re-rate.

Nice on $FRPH. Did I miss anything? Couldn't understand what happened today. I suppose the illiquidity means it doesn't take much.

Thanks! I much prefer a transcript but can't always find them. I still always find him interesting for inspiration - he's rare in having the humility to acknowledge that he doesn't know the answer, but provides interesting ideas to consider.

Of course, Revlon, that's why it's not easy. Though with EL, I think what we're discussing per @Spooky and @dealrakeris stuff that you can hold for decades, things will drift, but the longer-term performance has been pretty decent. The difficulty is having the confidence that management won't screw up like Revlon, & if there is a family input like the Bettancourt's, that generational hand-over works, or they successfully delegate to a Pro. Another method could be - decide on the Sectors you thing have long-term durability & buy Sector ETFs - e.g. Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Tech. (this is not dissimilar to Fundsmith).

Thanks for this.

Yes, thanks for this, & also especially to Viking who has helped me understand Fairfax so much better recently. To ask a stupid question: The average long-term return of their Investment Portfolio is 7.7%. If Book Value has compounded at c.18%, doesn't this indicate they should get out of this & do more of the other stuff? I appreciate their investment style has been 'out of fashion' somewhat since 2009 but this is over 38 years. Thanks.

It's the million dollar question! If I knew the answer, I wouldn't be on this board. If you haven't already, I'd recommend reading the Fundsmith Owner's Manual, which is very good on long-term compounders & the concept of 'don't try to be too clever, stick with the ones that you know have endured. Also the think-pieces on Lindsell Train's website. They both have concentrated buy&hold portfolios of 'boring' compounders, esp. stuff like Pepsi, & McCormick's, Diageo, Brown-Forman. It feels like certain industries are less likely to be disrupted - will women stop using cosmetics? (L'Oreal & Estee Lauder). People will spend money on their health. People will want insurance. Anyway, just some thoughts. And I'm very jealous of your large exposure to Constellation - congrats for that, & I am presuming it's a good place to work too!

I read it a while ago, & don't remember it that well, but I know I enjoyed it. Of course some stuff it's dated, but ultimately I suppose I see it as the roots of the Chuck Akre etc. quality growth philosophy. I suspect it's better than the Chris Mayer book that was inspired by it.

Personally, I have hugely enjoyed some of his blog entries, but found the book disappointing - I didn't find the narrative structure worked for the duration. I appreciate I am in a tiny minority!

Amazing! Thank you.

If you can't access individual stocks, then there are some excellent Indian & Chinese active funds, but the best ones tend to be under the radar. Also I know the UK/European market & have little knowledge about the US mutual fund scene. First Sentier have some US presence, have a ton of experience in China and India, great long-term track records and have an excellent radar for dodgy governance. The flipside is that this quality focus means they tend to underperform in raging bull markets, but then outperform in bear markets. I think China and India are both fascinating and exciting markets to be invested in, but they both have their individual issues.

I'd forgotten about this. I came across this early on in my investment time - fortunately for me I didn't have enough money to go beyond the paywall, as in those days that sort of thing was right up my street. Bears usually sound smarter, but I truly believe optimism is one of the greatest things a person can have. I'd never heard of the Christian Science Monitor - thanks for the tip. The name is rather off-putting, and misleading!

My father did. It was his career, but I don't think everybody in the business did. He researched the Form ferociously with meticulous notes & so was a huge inspiration for me when I turned to the stockmarkets. As well as knowing that they're both industries where you have to accept that the right process won't always produce the right outcome.

Not one size fits all. The above is an example of when it becomes more reasonable to be very concentrated. 'Watch that Basket' etc. But for many of us, if you don't have time to research, or don't already know a company inside-out, then it becomes more problematic to be extremely concentrated. And congrats & thanks @Viking your tales are inspirational & helpful.

This is absolutely true in London. There are a ton of identical terraced houses around - when you find a special property, you're never the only person who knows it, so you have to pay a bit more. But as my grandfather told me, quality holds its value better, especially in bad times, so it's generally worth it for many reasons.

As per a quick glance the latest annual letter, yes, good track record over 5 and 10 years. But I think you have to frame performance of funds like this through the environment of the past 15 years - i.e. the sort of stuff they do wasn't much in favour for a lot of it, but they've caught up a lot in the past 24 months or so.

Japan Small-Cap Value - I think Samarang is best for this. Milestone Japan has a good, experienced manager - I haven't looked at it recently. Vietnam - VEIL.L is the easiest option I think, and for small-caps, AFC Vietnam has very good figures. I struggle with VOF.L. VNH.L has a good team & portfolio, but I think can be too illiquid sadly. Obviously not recommendations.

I think small-cap Japanese value is super cheap & companies are doing well (I invest through a fund). I think Vietnam got unfairly beaten up late last year, & everything is cheap & growing fast. There is often a divergence between large-caps & small-caps - I usually have a bit of both (again through funds). I expect more volatility in 2023, and so use a Macro hedge fund (mainly rates) to exploit this (it's a closed-end feeder, so open to mere mortals like me...).

I attended a presentation by a Macro fund last week, and they were talking about 'Inflation Volatility' i.e. they said it'll go away, and then come back, and that will catch people out. I find this a more believable narrative.

I don't understand this chart? It says 1974-84 experience, but the x axis is 17 years. Am I missing something? I asked the author on his substack, but didn't get a reply.

I don't know how many of you know Overlook - one of the great Asian Funds over 20+ years. They are very straight Phil Fisher type investors. They were early investors in TSM and have held it all the way through. The founder of Overlook was so into it, he actually wrote a letter to Warren saying how he thought it was a great stock for him. So WEB may well have been following it for a while waiting patiently...

I have a memory that Druckenmiller said that BTC/Crypto had a high correlation with QQQ, which makes sense to me. It is tempting to start dripping in - if he's correct, it could in the longer-term just work as a levered QQQ play, plus some extra if Crypto comes back again proper.

Indian fund managers I follow seem quite positive for the next decade (having been less so for the past decade). I know the classic argument is that India is too expensive (especially compared with much of the rest of Asia). However, I spent much of the 10s being underweight the US because... it was too expensive. My feeling is that the US and India are both expensive markets as they both have a number of outstanding well-stewarded companies. Political instability? What, unlike a country where the Capitol was stormed? Or a country where they keep changing the Prime Minister? I think it's a risk in most countries these days, sadly. Separately I agree there's an argument for a good mutual fund if you can find one, especially if it's multi-cap. It's probably an obvious thing to say that I think it's harder to make a coffee-can portfolio with small-caps, as there's less certainty about their longevity. Which may mean that a small-cap subsidiary of one of the 'good' families might make sense. Of course, I may be completely wrong - it's hard to pick countries - think how many people thought Tencent & Alibaba were untouchable! But personally I'm happy to allocate part of my portfolio there.

Mr Ambani puts me right off Reliance. There are a number of great stewards in India to choose from instead. Unsurprisingly some of the best companies have crazy valuations (e.g. Britannia). I'm rusty on other valuations - but for Coffee Can you could do worse than other Consumer Staples like the Subsidiaries (Nestle India, Hindustan Unilever etc.). Marico has always been impressive, though I'm not sure about post-Harsh management. And perhaps Godrej Consumer? For conglomerates, I'd start with Mahindra and Tata - they both seem in a good place management-wise, though this needs to be monitored, and hard to say if you go for the Parent Co or pick a 'best' subsidiary. The Murugappa companies seem in a good place at the moment too. I don't know if tech is too risky for a Coffee Can approach, but Info Edge and IndiaMART would seem decent places to start.

Is this for fear of Oil collapse in a hard landing? Or just because of the heady gains you've made? I need to look at the MLPs again as apparently tax is changing again for non-US people on 1/1/23. That I am reluctant is perhaps a reflection that I have fallen too much for DMLP (I just can't find anything I like as much) though a 'Horizon Kinetics Basket' of the C-Corps & Canadians would probably do OK, if not quite a well.