thowed

Twitter is hideous, & the self-promotion, and show-boating a joke. It's not a place for humility! BUT just about worth it for the handful of good accounts. Apart from here, it's one of the few places where you can discuss strange small-caps with people all over the world, and find people who know them using the Ticker search.

I don't think you can generalise. I'm no expert, but I think SOME are. But it requires researching - something so much easier to do with internet resources and people like Nate @oddballstocks and team.

Great thread - very thought-provoking. After initial attempts to think of 'best' companies, I was persuaded by arguments here that an Index makes the most sense, given how much could change in 30 years. The only thing I'd add (as a non-US person particularly) is WHICH index. Not all are quite the same. For instance, when I look at how the S&P500 has demolished Europe over the past 20 years, that is because of how Tech companies have made the S&P so much more dynamic and 'Darwinian' which is what you want. Europe has one or two (e.g. ASML) and a couple of newer things like LVMH, but is more beholden to older, more static industries like Banks, Oil, Tobacco, Miners etc. Arguably. over 30 years, the world could change so much that MSCI World might make sense - just in case - (or even one with some EM stuff in as I think MSCI World is just DM, ironically). But it is also tempting to just copy Buffett with his old S&P500 suggestion - it is a pretty decent index with diversification in a dynamic country. I mean, of course there could be a Civil War after the election with Trump doing ever more insane things, but if you worry about that sort of stuff TOO much, you'll never get anywhere!

I think it would be interesting to see if interest rates went (and stayed) higher, whether this makes cigar butt investing more practicable again. It feels like Zero interest rates meant that so little was cheap enough for a classic value strategy.

Ha ha! No, this is the WRONG sort of cult! Tbh, I am more into managers with a bit more humility e.g. Buffett. In fairness Kupperman has owned up when he's been wrong in his letters, but his Twitter feed is pretty cringe-y. Too much self-aggrandising.

Kupperman seems interesting, but there seems to be a bit of a cult about him, which is an immediate red flag for me. So it's good for people to be aware of his history, so they can do more research and make their own judgement. Personally it would be too high risk an investment for me for what he does, but I imagine that if he can get 60% of his investments right then he could do very well.

Bravo, thank you.

Screens are so horrible. Sure, I'm old-fashioned, & prefer people generally, but I'd tolerate screens IF THEY WERE AS FAST AS PEOPLE. At the moment, you spend ages wheeling through the different options, confirming etc. The UX design is terrible. And I don't think enough research has been done on the hygiene of it all either. Anyways, sorry to go off-topic...

The FT has a quiz now with quotes, asking: "Bill Ackman or American Psycho?" Wonder if he'll threaten to 'write a letter'?

Not gospel but I reckon he's had following since inception in late 2010: Microsoft L'Oreal Pepsi Philip Morris Stryker Diageo Unilever and Visa & ADP have been in fund for over 10 years.

@schin I have it somewhere, will try & dig up later.

Good UK stocks were fine from 08, it's Brexit in 2016 that messed things up, I'd say, though some of the best companies have continued to do well, e.g. Games Workshop.

Bump - did anyone do this? Seemed to suffer last year, whether GLP-1 related or otherwise, alongside other Consumer Staples. Wonder if the sector might turn in 2023? Up 2.5% today but that's from a multi-year bottom.

@bizaro86 Sure. They're strange ones. 1: Lindsell Train Investment Trust. About 60% of it is 10 quality (dull) de-rated blue chips: LSEG, NTDOY, RELX, ULVR, MDLZ, DEO etc. 40% is the Fund Management Co. This is massively profitable, & AUM grew & grew, but their strategies just haven't worked post-COVID (partly having no MAG7). Before that they were darlings of the UK Fund Management world (& track record neck & neck with Fundsmith) & pre-COVID it had outperformed NASDAQ since 2001. It is Extremely illiquid. Divi of about 5/6%. They have 2 main funds: Global (which is 35 US, 45 UK/Europe & 20 Japan) and UK (which is 20% non-UK) so have also struggled with general performance of UK market. So buying it now is banking on their companies coming back into fashion, which would then produce a virtuous circle as the AUM increased, and clients came back. Which would also possibly return the discount to a premium. If you can get hold of enough shares, it could be interesting. As you may know, they are VERY long-term buy & hold, Akre-style. About one new company a year goes into the portfolio. Latest two have been RMV in the UK, which has derated due to possible competition from CoStar (I don't think CoStar will dislodge the first-mover personally), but is insanely profitable, and they also bought FICO for their Global fund in late 2021, which... has done alright for them! So their talent remains I believe. On the other hand they can be arguably overly stubborn about selling, and 2: BH Macro. A feeder fund to the Brevan Howard Macro Hedge Fund. Stellar long-term record, especially in 2008, but suffered from low volatility in 2011-17 period. Since 2018 has been roaring up & matching S&P500 with low volatility. Unusual opportunity for Retail to be able to access a top Macro fund, and with liquidity. 2 & 20 fees obvs. Main Hedge Fund closed now, so only way to access it, which led to 10% premium. This year hasn't been so good for them but -1% so if you use it as a Bond-proxy diversifier, as I do, it's not a disaster. But others have been unimpressed & has gone to 10% discount. There is also concern over share overhang. A recent UK wealth management merger has meant the new combined co has about 30% of the Trust, and so may sell a fair bit down. Macro is a funny beast, and of course there is danger that their top traders will be poached by others. But on the other hand, you can now buy a top Macro fund at a 10% discount, which is potentially quite appealing if you're looking for a non-equity, low volatility diversifier.

To offer some diversification from all of these great results (congratulations all of you!), I had a frustrating & very low-returning year. The Bad Two of my larger holdings are closed-end funds, and they re-rated heavily downwards (from their historical premiums). Their performance was OK, not great (& longer-term performance is terrific), but when you go from a 10%+ Premium to a 10-15% Discount in a year, it doesn't end well. China - ugh. I thought it might turnaround this year after last Autumn. I am almost out now, though suspect it may finally turn in January as it is so hated now. Similarly my Japan small-caps trod water again, but again I am more hopeful for next year. Vietnam started well, but suffered in the Autumn. Again bullish for the next decade, though stock-picking required. All this Asia exposure meant that yet again I was underweight the US which I am slowly addressing. I bought COST and CSU pretty much at the bottom in May/October 2022, but didn't have the courage of my conviction so they were in tiny amounts, which has been very frustrating, though at least means I am on the right track. The Good On the other hand, I feel like I learnt a fair bit. I bought a few of my 'forever' stocks in October e.g. Ashtead, having waited too long, plus some other stuff like PSH. My best trade was buying a fair bit more of TPL at around 1300 when it was really hated & people had given up. Followed by buying AMT gradually as it came down this year to multi-year lows. It is a truism that most of the best purchases have been the least comfortable at the time. My India fund did incredibly well, which I didn't expect. The board has been a huge help as always - this year the FFH material from @Viking has been invaluable, following FRPH last year from @BG2008. Having Gold as 'Cash' seems to have worked again, if one accepts the volatility, esp. as over 5 years or so it has matched MSCI World. I continue to evolve as an investor, my longer-term performance is 'acceptable' & will hopefully improve with time, and I hope I have learnt from mistakes made this year. Good luck to all for 2024! p.s. Other mitigation is that I had a better year in 2022 as didn't have a lot of the Tech stuff that went down.

I feel like this was the case 10 years ago. I'm less sure now - 'exponential growth' is a fairly well-established term at this point, and I would suggest is more priced in now. I think there is an element where you need to trust in management to be 'lucky' in terms of new products now, & I mean that in the sense that the more skilful the management, the more likely they are to be lucky. The obvious example is that in the past no one included AWS in their valuation of Amazon. The FAANG/MAG7 run has been extraordinary - they are incredible companies in oligopolistic situations, BUT we've all known that for years, & personally I thought it was all priced in & I was too late. This has so far been a big mistake, so I could be wrong again!

I saw this on a presentation: "Gallagher's investments in new clean energy projects and the wind-up of its investments in clean coal production plants." But I can't find any more details - does anyone have any info? Seems like some people decided that 'clean coal' wasn't actually that clean (I don't know enough to comment) which is presumably why they wound it up, but am curious what they've replaced them with. Thanks in advance.

Amazing! To clarify on the Hot Pot / Fondue, there are different types of fondue. Most people associate it with cheese, but I am particularly fond of Fondue Chinoise, which is very thin slivers of meat put in broth then eaten with sauces & also Fondue Bourgignonne, which is bits of beef cooked in oil. Happy Thanksgiving to all for yesterday & thanks given to Sanjay for the community here.

@Spooky Do you have any shares in the Polish subsidiary? I looked at it & it seems interesting, though fairly illiquid, & I didn't get a fill when I put a (cheap) bid in on a down day. Thanks for the discussion on this - if I'd been more on it, probably should have added to Lumine recently, but maybe there'll be another chance in the next year.

Yes, extremely grateful to @Viking and everyone else who has contributed. The research has been top-notch.

Yes, this is a very tempting argument & quite convincing. On the other hand, is this not a rehash of the Nifty 50 argument, which worked... eventually, if you waited 30-40 years from the peak? And particularly when it feels like an increasingly consensus view? On the other hand again, even if they do turn out like the Nifty 50, the top might be 5-10 years away, and they'll carry on (& may grow more into their valuations with new technological additions to their arsenal). I know you're flexible, so are your MGK Puts in case they turn out not to be bond subs? Anyway, I fear that I have my own bias to deal with as I'm woefully underweight these ultras, apart from the tiniest amount I bought at the bottom last year, before I lost my nerve. So I'm struggling to buy more at a much higher price.

I suspect that this is one of those temporary dislocation opportunities to buy Consumer Snack companies cheaper than usual, while the Ozempic hype goes overboard. I have no idea of the GLP-1 efficacy, but from crowd psychology it seems reasonable that people are getting over-excited about its effects in relation to snacking. Similar sort of thing to 2021 when V & MA came down because they were going to be disrupted by BNPL and Crypto. Anyways, snack cos aren't my favourite things generally, but at the right price, as 'bond proxies' you could arguably do a lot worse than Pepsi, Mondelez & possibly Hershey (as a US-only play).

This comment was in reply to a question I asked. I'm extremely grateful to you for the explanation - it helped me think about options differently, and consequently has made the last week a lot more comfortable for me than it otherwise would have. Thanks again! And congrats.

This. I'm happy with one or two Oil Royalty Cos where management is OK, but for Uranium Gold etc. Physical is generally more reliable.

Nope. I've been reading about Uranium occasionally for years, but never 100% understood it & prefer stuff where there's a really smart CEO in charge to help things along. I can see Uranium working big time, but I've learned that it's safer not to get involved with stuff you don't fully understand. I'll stick with my Oil Royalty Cos for now. Edit: Just so everyone is aware, Kuppy has blown up big time in the past. So while sometimes he gets it really right, the opposite can also apply, so I'd say be wary of coat-tailing him if you don't fully understand it.