thowed

Never heard of Gartman, but I LOVE the Money Game - it's well-written, it's very funny (not easy when writing about finance), and the kids market thing doesn't seem unreasonable, though I wouldn't be surprised if it kept running for a while as these things usually do for longer than you think possible.

I think everybody's made some interesting points here, but I'd go back to basics and say that it is completely pointless to make any comment about 'hedge funds' as it can mean too many different things. If you are a long-biased hedge fund, then Gregmal's point are entirely valid. But the problem with these articles is that the definition of 'hedge funds' includes long funds with various Macro funds, bond funds, commodity funds, Arb, Short only funds etc. etc. And so this makes the 8.5% figure meaningless. Except that if you're a journalist you need the figure to be either much lower or higher than the S&P500 so that you have an angle for your feature.

It is, thanks, and Seilern is/was an interesting fund house (the key manager left and has started a very similar fund at CQS - it will be interesting to see who does better over the next 5 years). I resisted this style of investing for years because... it seemed too easy/obvious. And boy do I regret it. Now I am nervous again, because it seems to have become almost groupthink, and while I accept great firms can be expensive and still do well, I also think that the Nifty 50 shows that there comes a price level where you have to wait a Long Time for them to outperform - and, y'know, in the long run, we're dead. So I hold on for now to the Fundsmith/Lindsell Train/Akre/Seilern etc. way of doing things for now, but I would love to find some diversity. It feels like value areas like Energy e.g. E&P could be on the turn, but such a specific bet requires luck on the timing. And value funds have taken such a hammering for the past decade that it seems hard to identify who has still got the ability and hunger to really slay when value becomes a thing again.

I'm more of a funds person to be honest. But going back to the earlier idea of contrarianism, I was reminded of Russia recently. Cheap and hated (if not quite as much as a couple of years ago). I've never felt too comfortable with the governance. While it's the 'one that everyone owns', I'd have thought that Sberbank would have a pretty decent chance of doing well over time. If you want retail, then I suppose X5 would be one to look at. At the more obvious end, I find FEET (Fundsmith EM IT) becoming gradually more interesting, whether for owning or inspiration. The portfolio's been tightened up, and is full of super impressive EM consumer companies. They've just been too crazily expensive I think, even for their impressive stats. They seem to be slowly getting a bit cheaper. I wouldn't expect them ever to be 'cheap' (except in a 2008 situation) as they're just too high quality and profitable, but if they become semi-reasonably priced, they should be no-brainers for the long-term.

Like the EM bank thoughts. I'll add in BCA in Indonesia and Public Bank in Malaysia which I'm told are the two ASEAN banks with the highest corporate governance. And if you want to go really off piste, there's Brac in Bangladesh, which seems to be a class operation, though not cheap from memory. I REALLY like the EM reversion stuff - as a big EM fan, here's hoping - it's been a rough 5 years. I don't know much about Ulta, but Retail is definitely getting interesting. We all know it's being disrupted, but I believe that retail isn't dead, it's just being transformed. There are going to be a lot of value traps out there, but if you can work out who can adapt their retail format to the future, there's a chance of picking it up for a song right now.

Thanks - more good thoughts here. The Ayalas are definitely one of the handful of Philippine families with high levels of corporate governance. As you may know, you mention the holdco, but there's a bunch of other listed ones too (e.g. bank, water co etc.). I saw the thing on Jardines, which is interesting - I found it too complicated and couldn't figure out the Keswick history (I get the impression some members of the family have been more impressive than others). Jardine C&C is definitely interesting - auto has been grim. I know it a bit because they have a subsidiary that invests in Vietnam (I research this a little). Similarly some of the best small-cap Asia value funds are super beaten up at the moment, whereas you look at their track records from 2003-13 and they killed it. It feels like their day must come again, but it's painful waiting at the moment. I think it's harder than ever perhaps to identify the unpopular stuff as this cycle has gone on so much longer than usual that our brains have been wired to quality growth compounders in certain industries, and it's hard to remember the people who succeeded with a previous style before, and even harder to know if they'd still be able to do it if things switched again. Thanks to all for this contrarian thinking - I used to be more attuned to it, but I've been gradually been drawn to groupthink out of jealousy at missing out on the returns of the past 10 years. Finally, I don't know the figures well, but instinctively I'd back FPT in Vietnam for the next 10-15 years. Unfortunately foreigners can only buy it at a huge premium (due to Foreign Ownership Limits). It's a phone/broadband company that has moved into IT services. It seems to be a quality operating, growing, and not expensive, but DYOR - I get this from a bunch of Vietnam reports I've read.

I like the Softbank idea, though it's not really my style of investing i.e. I struggle with the governance of both Softbank and Alibaba. To throw another contrarian idea out, how about some commodity companies? When you say Microsoft, it makes me think that a great time to invest in it was in 2003-4, when everybody was still scarred by the tech bubble. It was a brave call then. Commodity companies were roaring in the 00s until 2007, but now are generally reviled. My suspicion is that to make great returns, you want to make a brave call. I think that Microsoft, BAM etc. are outstanding companies, but right now, so does everybody else, so I think returns could be disappointing over the next 10 years. Having said that, I tend to favour the 'Fundsmith-esque' quality compounders. Thanks for making me think about this. This is what makes investing so interesting - it feels like we are starting to approach a new Nifty Fifty era i.e. that however good a company is, there comes a point when if a) it's very expensive and b) EVERYONE owns it, then it won't produce great returns for a while. However, the tricky part is 1) getting the timing right and 2) working out which 'unpopular' companies will reverse. Maybe it's a case of looking at the best quality, hated Value stocks. Of course, that's a speciality of many people on this board!

Here's some Chilean stocks that might be worth having a look at: They're just from a few LatAm funds I respect, though obviously the whole continent has been a struggle for a while now. I haven't looked at them myself. From memory, it's mostly quality consumer & retail stuff. SAAM Sonda SACI Falabella Cia Cervecerias Unidas ADR Embotelladora Andina Inversiones Aguas Metropolitanas Quinenco Sociedad Matriz Forus

Don't suppose you were on the Hollertronix board? I've always had a slight curiosity if there's any crossover between the music boards I hung out on, and here.

OMG - Munger_Disciple, many thanks for that. Hilarious. And jaw-dropping.

Some features I've got so far, in case anyone's interested (and I think Primecap are pretty interesting as Active managers go, though that's perhaps augmented somewhat by the secrecy around them). 2016: https://www.barrons.com/articles/primecap-in-the-spotlight-1460174680 decent overview 2000: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2000-03-12/three-contrarians-share-their-secrets they've been doing this a while!

Hi all I'm just reading up on the history of Primecap. Those who know will be aware that they don't talk much, but apparently Schow did an interview in 1994 in Forbes, and I can't find it anywhere on the web. Much appreciated, thanks.

If you can invest in London-listed things, there are two fairly recent closed-end funds focusing on this space, both doing energy storage in the UK: https://newenergy.greshamhouse.com/funds/esf/ http://www.gsenergystoragefund.com I haven't looked at them I'm afraid, but I'm sure if you google there'll be some analysis of them.

Thanks for this new one. I'm always slightly curious as to why he does something like CNBC. I understand the other one - it's a friend, but he doesn't need to do CNBC - nothing to promote? Maybe when I watch/read transcript it'll make sense. Anyway, I really enjoyed the first one. He's not always right, but always interesting. I thought it noteworthy his line that most of his profits are from Bonds and Currencies. It's a reminder that perhaps one shouldn't take so much notice of his 13Fs (even discounting the fact he's a trader, not a holder).

Looks good on first viewing. Thanks, I'll have a tinker. Only first point I'd make is that perhaps the sign-up design should incorporate a 'enter your password again'. Maybe it annoys some people, but when you can't see what you're typing, it just seems like a basic security procedure.

There's a good profile of the writer in this/last week's New Yorker that you may enjoy. I haven't seen it, but quite tempted now.

Thanks, Longterm.

I take your point but, with respect, I think that everything is connected, and you cannot consider the economic and investment angle without considering all the other elements. From what I understand, British businesses are apoplectic with the government, as they are completely unable to plan for the future e.g. know which country to build their next factory in etc. Business hates uncertainty.

First off, I think the Brexit situation is so complicated, that having a truly intelligent view is impossible without a solid knowledge of European history, UK law, economics and more. It certainly shouldn’t have been left for the British public to make a binary decision on. I don’t know what the answer is, but here are some points to consider: Sunken costs: If it is better for the UK to be outside the EU, will that improvement be worth the cost of leaving, and untying so many years of connections and systems? War: One of the most important functions of the EU, which balances the terrible EU politics, is keeping Europe together and avoiding another war. Too many people don’t appreciate the importance of longer-term European history. The 2016 campaign: there were so many terrible lies spun by the campaign about how great and easy it would be for the UK to leave. Even without knowing what leaving will really entail, it seems pretty incontrovertible that it will not be great or easy. The vote was won 52-48. 3 years later, and so much has changed. While in a normal situation it would be completely inappropriate to have a second referendum, this no longer seems like a normal situation. Business: so many of the current generation of UK politicians in all parties are ‘career politicians’ i.e. they have been doing it straight out of University. So they have little life or business experience. I think there has been huge ignorance about things like the complexity of modern supply chains, and the costs and complications that Brexit will create in disrupting these. Northern Ireland: Again, if you don’t know the history, you don’t know how delicate and important the peace process is, and the repercussions for so many people if Brexit wrecks it. Finally, I find it very depressing to see an increasing number of Western countries, who you hope would know better, sleepwalking into a form of civil war. The UK with Brexit, the US with Trump etc. We are all entitled to our own opinions, but we should still always be able to get on with those who have different ones. I think respect for our fellow man, and communication are two of the most important things in being human. We are always better when we talk to each other – and less likely to say the sort of things people find acceptable to write on the internet. When even people from the same country are so fired up about an issue that they can’t talk to one another civilly, it is a tragedy.

I've had a little look at this stockmarket, and this is what I found so far: It has done well, but is obviously very volatile. The index did the classic thing where it ran up in anticipation of moving from being a Frontier market to an EM market, and then dropped after that. The political situation in 2017 (where the PM was removed) wasn't helpful. I don't know what to expect from Imran Khan - he's a relative political outsider. Corporate Governance is a minefield, but there appear to be certain companies which pass a reasonable bar. It's probably worth looking at companies who have JVs with companies with established corporate governance from other countries. Things are pretty cheap at the moment. There could be some ugly arguments with China over the Belt & Road investments, especially with the deep port in Baluchistan. I haven't invested there - I have no edge - but it's always fascinating to take a dip in countries like this. Oh, and the food's great, from domestic experience with Pakistani curry houses!

Good to see there are other people here who like David Webb, though not surprising I suppose. For those who are interested, there are some other good features on him, especially about the history of his 'Christmas tips'. I've never quite managed to understand the companies he invests in. It often seems to be things where the founder boss in is in his 90s, and they have a bunch of land marked at cost price from 40 years ago, and you wait for them to realise the value and sell it. So fairly classic deep value, but I feel that without being on the ground, I don't know how to get a sense of when the catalyst will be realised (though I know not everyone is bothered about the 'when'). However it's probably not a bad time to coat-tail him, given the 2018 HK performance.

I struggle to understand all the businesses in detail, but believe in the long-term India story, and hope that Fairfax should be in place to benefit. Asian Airports can be fine businesses (Shanghai International is a case in point at the moment), but I don't know enough about the Bengaluru management to feel confident about how how well they'll execute the expansion. I'm sure I just need to sit down and research more. The Finechem chemicals business had a decent reputation (so I heard, but not from primary research) before Fairfax got involved. Stock exchanges are great businesses I think if you believe in long-term capitalism. I need to do a lot more work, but overall the sectors they've gone into look very appealing. Having said that, don't forget there are a heap load of well-run family companies in India to choose from - it's not tricky to create a small basket, or find a fund manager who knows what they're doing.

I'd have thought one of the best ways to begin is reading Annual Reports (and Quarterly ones) from the various closed-end funds specialising in Healthcare and Biotech. There are a number in the UK and Switzerland. Orbimed (US-based) and BB (Swiss) are the two big names, and their listed funds have a lot of commentary and resources. This is on my reading pile, though I have no relevant background, so I'm sure you'll get much more out of it. There is also the more early-stage stuff, where again you can find some UK permanent capital vehicles with literature. Woodford Patient Capital Trust - it hasn't done well so far, but I think there are definitely some interesting companies in the portfolio (e.g. Autolus). And the big UK universities are also supporting this sort of stuff through vehicles like IP Group. I hope that's some help. Let me know if you make any interesting findings!

Awesome - many thanks for sharing this - I find he often has something to interesting to say, but I didn't feel strongly enough to pay for it.

I've just been dipping in so far, but it hasn't grabbed me in the same way as 'The Most Important Thing'. It feels like that a fair bit of it is an expansion on a general Marks theme of 'where are we in the cycle', and so if you've read the first book, and the Memos since, it's not as enlightening as before. That said, maybe I read to sit down and read it properly to get more out of it. There's certainly some good stuff in there, and it's also a very important theme that he covers. I'm also delighted that he features an investment hero of mine, Nick Train of Lindsell Train, and I hope it exposes him to a broader US audience.